Well well well. The two teams who have scrapped in each other's back yards for decades, occasionally on the ACC stage, finally square off in a game that really means something nationally. UNC has a chance to end Coach K's career. How's that for a big game?
Here are the key stats for each team compiled. The final column shows the average for each stat for teams included in the NCAA Tournament, as well as the standard deviation for that group).
Stats that are more or less than 1 standard deviation from average are bold. Stats that have an "a" preceding them are adjusted for tempo. TEMPO is the Tempo Index, based on teams in the tournament.
The stats explain why Duke is favored in this game. While UNC has played excellent offense this season, Duke is scoring even more efficiently. This is UNC's second-worst defensive team since the advent of the 3 point line, and while they have been forcing opponents to take more difficult shots lately, they still are very poor at forcing turnovers (getting into passing lanes and pressuring the ball). Duke is fairly average on defense among tournament teams. UNC's main advantage is in rebounding, and that can be enough to steal enough possessions to make this a game.
I think the key to this game will be UNC's ability to beat Duke's zone when they eventually go to it. Before then we will likely attack the basket because Duke has shown that their big defensive weakness is defending the lane against penetration. Duke will go to a zone at that point, and Manek's or Davis' play will decide the game. If we beat it, Duke won't have an answer.
Of course, these stats reflect entire season averages, so it is necessary to look at UNC's season to appreciate how they have been playing recently instead of penalizing them for play so long ago. It's also important to note that Final Fours are weird. Players show up and can't throw the ball in the ocean. Players freeze. Unexpected players get hot. We will not recognize 1 of these Final Four teams on Saturday night. That's more likely than any stat preview explaining the game, to be honest.
That said, Duke is currently favored by 4.0, and my calculations have them winning by 7.4 points. I'll be happy to be wrong on this one!
Here are the key stats for each team compiled. The final column shows the average for each stat for teams included in the NCAA Tournament, as well as the standard deviation for that group).
| Team | UNC | Duke | AVERAGE (std dev) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 33 | 34 | 32.2 (1.5) |
| W-L | 24-9 | 28-6 | |
| PTS | 77.5 | 80.2 | 74.6 (6.3) |
| FGM | 27.6 | 29.7 | 26.8 (2.4) |
| FGA | 61.0 | 60.7 | 58.3 (4.0) |
| FG% | 45.3 | 48.9 | 45.94 (2.23) |
| 3FGM | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.6 (1.2) |
| 3FGA | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.7 (2.9) |
| 3FG% | 36.2 | 36.8 | 1.1 (0.1) |
| FT | 14.0 | 12.6 | 13.4 (1.7) |
| FTA | 18.1 | 17.4 | 18.4 (2.2) |
| REB | 39.8 | 38.3 | 36.7 (2.9) |
| RBDIF | 7.7 | 4.4 | 3.815 (2.9) |
| AST | 14.8 | 16.9 | 14.2 (2.0) |
| TO | 11.7 | 10.2 | 12.1 (1.5) |
| ATO | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.19 (0.22) |
| ST | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 (1.5) |
| fgm | 26.9 | 26.2 | 24.0 (2.2) |
| fga | 62.1 | 63.0 | 57.8 (4.3) |
| fg% | 43.4 | 41.7 | 41.4 (1.9) |
| 3fgm | 8.0 | 6.7 | 6.9 (0.9) |
| 3fga | 22.9 | 21.2 | 21.5 (2.6) |
| 3fg% | 34.9 | 31.4 | 32.1 (1.9) |
| fta | 13.4 | 11.9 | 16.4 (2.5) |
| reb | 32.0 | 33.9 | 32.9 (2.3) |
| to | 10.0 | 11.0 | 12.9 (2.0) |
| pts | 71.7 | 67.1 | 66.1 (4.9) |
| POSS | 81.0 | 78.9 | 78.8 (5.0) |
| poss | 78.3 | 79.5 | 78.2 (4.7) |
| TPOSGM | 159.3 | 158.3 | 157.0 (6.6) |
| PPP | 0.957 | 1.016 | 0.947 (0.05) |
| ppp | 0.916 | 0.845 | 0.845 (0.036) |
| SmithIndex | -0.059 | 0.071 | -0.003 |
| aFGM | 27.2 | 29.4 | 26.8 (1.6) |
| a2FGM | 19.1 | 21.3 | 19.2 (1.5) |
| FG% | 45.3 | 48.9 | 45.9 (2.2) |
| 2FG% | 50.7 | 55.8 | 52.4 (3.0) |
| aREBDIF | 7.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 (2.9) |
| ATO | 1.27 | 1.65 | 1.2 (0.2) |
| aSTL | 5.35 | 6.42 | 6.72 (1.32) |
| PPG | 149.2 | 147.3 | 140.6 (7.0) |
| TEMPO | 1.014 | 1.008 | 1.0 (0.042) |
| PWR | 109.9 | 117.3 | 108.9 (6.0) |
Stats that are more or less than 1 standard deviation from average are bold. Stats that have an "a" preceding them are adjusted for tempo. TEMPO is the Tempo Index, based on teams in the tournament.
The stats explain why Duke is favored in this game. While UNC has played excellent offense this season, Duke is scoring even more efficiently. This is UNC's second-worst defensive team since the advent of the 3 point line, and while they have been forcing opponents to take more difficult shots lately, they still are very poor at forcing turnovers (getting into passing lanes and pressuring the ball). Duke is fairly average on defense among tournament teams. UNC's main advantage is in rebounding, and that can be enough to steal enough possessions to make this a game.
I think the key to this game will be UNC's ability to beat Duke's zone when they eventually go to it. Before then we will likely attack the basket because Duke has shown that their big defensive weakness is defending the lane against penetration. Duke will go to a zone at that point, and Manek's or Davis' play will decide the game. If we beat it, Duke won't have an answer.
Of course, these stats reflect entire season averages, so it is necessary to look at UNC's season to appreciate how they have been playing recently instead of penalizing them for play so long ago. It's also important to note that Final Fours are weird. Players show up and can't throw the ball in the ocean. Players freeze. Unexpected players get hot. We will not recognize 1 of these Final Four teams on Saturday night. That's more likely than any stat preview explaining the game, to be honest.
That said, Duke is currently favored by 4.0, and my calculations have them winning by 7.4 points. I'll be happy to be wrong on this one!
Last edited:
