Stat Review (Alabama - 11/27/2022)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	42	24
3FG%	30	34
2FG%	46	26
FT%	90	96
fg%	41	53
3fg%	42	23
2fg%	40	73
ft%	62	67
PTS/POSS	0.86	28
pts/poss	0.84	53
TOTPOSS	241	100
POSDIF	-5	16
%LOB	15	55
%lob	18	62
SmithIdx	-0.0815	36
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.39	6
%RMS	0.25	36
%rms	0.40	5
%FROM3	25.3	36

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The longest game in UNC history ended as a loss, mainly because of three things: the inability to run an inbounds play on 2 occasions, the complete collapse of any sort of organized offensive gameplan, and the lack of rebounding.

UNC only got 0.39 assists per field goal made, a 6th percentile performance that has only been worse in 65 of the last 965 games. Alabama rebounded 40% of their missed shots. Only 2 times since 1996 have we seen an opponent rebound more. The Heels were outrebounded again, with Alabama getting 5 more possessions than UNC (16th percentile)

Defensively the Heels held Alabama to 0.84 points per possession, which is excellent, and a trend for this team. Offensively, though, they only scored 0.86 points per possession. Too much of the offense is just Caleb Love jacking up a stepback jump shot early in the clock. Love attempted 36 field goals, the most by a Tar Heel since 1965 (57 years). This team isn't moving without the ball and making the defense move. Instead we are just settling for difficult shots which are taken at a time when we don't have a rebounder set. This team is attempting 34% of its shots from behind the arc this season, 5 percentage points higher than they have since 1996.

Good defense, but some heroes from last March and April need to have a sitdown with the coaches and get their heads in check.

 

[gdean44]

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