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Stat Review: Duke (2/3/24)

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
113
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%50 67
UNC_statBox_70.png

3FG%38 57
UNC_statBox_55.png

2FG%57 75
UNC_statBox_70.png

FT%72 56
UNC_statBox_55.png

fg%51 9
UNC_statBox_5.png

3fg%26 75
UNC_statBox_70.png

2fg%60 6
UNC_statBox_5.png

ft%82 18
UNC_statBox_20.png

PTS/POSS1.12 92
UNC_statBox_90.png

pts/poss1.00 14
UNC_statBox_10.png

TOTPOSS167 46
UNC_statBox_45.png

POSDIF(1)33
UNC_statBox_30.png

%LOB6 98
UNC_statBox_95.png

%lob13 27
UNC_statBox_25.png

SmithIdx0.020557
UNC_statBox_55.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.10 89
UNC_statBox_85.png

AST/FG0.55 39
UNC_statBox_35.png

OR%0.27 23
UNC_statBox_20.png

or%0.21 66
UNC_statBox_70.png

%FROM336.479
UNC_statBox_75.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
Saturday night the Heels bounced back from a disappointing loss with a huge win over a really good tournament team. It was the most complete game of the season, and on offense, the Heels checked almost every box you could ask for as a fan!

The Heels scored 1.13 points per possession in an outstanding first half. The better news is they finished the game with 1.12 overall. It was the 88th most efficient offensive game by a Tar Heel squad in the last 1012 games, and the third highest of the season (short of Tennessee and Charleston Southern).

UNC shared the ball well, too, with 0.55 assists per field goal. That's a stat that is definitely trending in the right direction, as they have eclipsed the season average of 0.50 in 4 of the last 6 games.

One of the most interesting stats was with turnovers. UNC only lost it on 6% of their possession. It was the 8th-cleanest game in the last 1012 games. Maybe UNC could have made a couple more threes??? but on the offensive end it was about as good as anyone could hope for against a good team.

Defensively it wasn't a great night. Duke scored 0.90 points per possession in the first half, but ended the game with a disappointing 1.00 point per possession. Duke shot 51% from the field, which has been eclipsed by 104 of the last 1012 opponents. Inside the arc, however, it was worse, where Duke shot 60%. We've only seen 60 of the last 1012 opponents shoot better inside. Duke turned it over on 13% of their possessions, which is below the UNC program's average for opponents.

With a raucous home crowd, it felt like a fast-paced game, and to a degree it was. There were 167 possessions, making it the 9th-fastest game of the 22 games thus far. Duke got one more possession than UNC, so Duke won the rebounding battle by a hair.

Looking forward UNC gets Clemson, @MIA, @Syr, and VT. To be honest, VT probably is the team that gives us the toughest battle of those four. Thankfully the game is here. As far as the ACC looks, it really looks like UNC, Duke, and maybe UVA would get NCAA bids. That means that there are probably only 2 remaining tournament teams in these upcoming 9 games; hardly a murderer's row. Gotta put this great game behind us an prepare for Clemson in 2 days, though.
 
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