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Stat Review: @Duke (2/4/23)

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
113
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%345
UNC_statBox_5.png

3FG%2622
UNC_statBox_15.png

2FG%409
UNC_statBox_5.png

FT%6738
UNC_statBox_35.png

fg%3963
UNC_statBox_60.png

3fg%3641
UNC_statBox_35.png

2fg%4075
UNC_statBox_75.png

ft%7336
UNC_statBox_35.png

PTS/POSS0.736
UNC_statBox_5.png

pts/poss0.8549
UNC_statBox_45.png

TOTPOSS15215
UNC_statBox_10.png

POSDIF461
UNC_statBox_60.png

%LOB993
UNC_statBox_90.png

%lob1649
UNC_statBox_45.png

SmithIdx-0.220614
UNC_statBox_10.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.5025
UNC_statBox_30.png

AST/TO1.7167
UNC_statBox_65.png

%from31897
UNC_statBox_95.png

%FROM338.686
UNC_statBox_85.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
The Heels suffered yet another close loss, and have nobody to blame but themselves. Once again the Heels couldn't put the ball in the basket, shooting 34% from the field and 26% from 3. With only 3 FTAs, that meant a terrible 0.73 pts/poss efficiency. In the last 981 games, UNC scored more efficiently in all but 67 of those outings. Like a broken record, the offense only generate from 0.50 assists/fg, a 25th percentile performance, and the Heels took a ton of 3s, an 86th percentile proportion of attempts.

Duke was terrible, too, scoring only 0.85 points per possession. They only took 18% of their shots from 3. Only 27 of our last 981 have taken fewer of their shots from behind the arc. Both UNC and Duke were a terrible 40% inside the arc.

As I ranted about this team's lack of defense last week, it was a week where the offense was absolutely horrendous. This team is only shooting 44.5% from the field, 1 standard deviation below the program's average, and 0.2 percent lower than last year's team. They are really relying on the 3 too much, settling for 36% of their shots from behind the arc (last year was 38% and the program average is 28.5).

As this teams finds its way into a difficult schedule stretch, it also finds itself nearing NCAA bubble territory. They need to fix so much at this point. They aren't getting blown out, but they surely aren't looking like they are poised for a nice run in March.
 
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