Stat Review: Duke (2/5/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	41	20
3FG%	41	66
2FG%	41	12
FT%	67	39
fg%	58	1
3fg%	47	11
2fg%	63	3
ft%	77	27
PTS/POSS	0.91	42
pts/poss	1.14	2
POSS	74	9
POSDIF	-2	28
%LOB	11	86
%lob	16	45
Interesting Stats
%FROM3	37.3	84
%from3	32	65
SmithIdx	-0.34	5
ast/poss	0.26	2

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reportd
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
Another blowout means another game where the stats are distorted. That said, UNC's performance on offense (0.91 points per possession)
wasn't that bad. The game was lost on defense. Duke scored 1.14 points per possession. In the last 941 games, there have been only 20 opponents to have less trouble scoring. (2 this season). This season's team has held its opponents under Dean Smith's goal of 0.85 points in only 9 of 23 games. so far.

The Heels actually forced turnovers at a fairly high 16% rate, however when Duke wasn't turning the ball over, they were a well oiled machine, getting 2.03 assists per possession. Only 23 opponents since 1996 have done that. Duke was hot from the floor, shooting 58% from the field, a feat only accomplished by 13 opponents in the last 941 games.

The game was played at a notably slow pace, with only 150 total possessions. (11th percentile).

UNC has been one of the country's best rebounding teams, but Duke had the edge, getting 2 extra possessions from rebounding.

This UNC team is teetering on historic failure on defense. The 2002 team, which stands as the worst UNC defensive team, allowed 0.929 points per possession. This team is allowing 0.924 p/p.

UNC has not beaten an opponent that appears to be headed for the NCAA tournament yet. It looks like there are only 2 more cracks at it before the regular season is over; FSU on Saturday and @Duke on 3/5. The rest of the schedule consists of 6 bad teams (3 away). Maybe in that stretch the UNC guards can learn how to pressure passing lanes.