Stat Review: Georgia Tech (12/10/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	47	52
3FG%	23	15
2FG%	55	64
FT%	75	66
fg%	41	55
3fg%	35	47
2fg%	46	48
ft%	75	32
PTS/POSS	0.95	54
pts/poss	0.86	48
TOTPOSS	148	9
POSDIF	10	87
%LOB	14	66
%lob	16	47
SmithIdx	-0.0057	51
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.56	40
AST/POSS	0.19	44
%rms	0.03	98
%FROM3	22.8	26

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

This was a really boring game on the surface, but subtly this was actually fascinating game. Most importantly UNC as a school ended its losing streak. It was the exact right time for the basketball team to hit the garage for a week, as well as the time for a non-tournament foe to come to the Smith Center. Let's face it, GT is not a good team, but they aren't the Little Sisters of the Poor either, so they were exactly what we needed.

UNC had a 1-point deficit 15 minutes into it, but then went on a 16-2 run in the next 5 minutes that essentially ended the game. For the first 15 minutes of the first half, UNC lost by 1. For the first 18 minutes of the second half UNC won by 1. That's 33 minutes of play that were a wash against Ken Pomeroy's #124 team. So, there are still a lot of questions about this team.

UNC shot well inside the arc and from the FT line, however the woes continue from the arc, shooting just 23%. Despite what you've heard from interviews and podcasts, this was an incredibly slow game, with just 148 total possessions, the 9th percentile in pace since 1996. UNC rebounded very well, getting 10 more possessions than GT (87th percentile). GT was only able to rebound 1 (3%) of its 32 missed shots.



I don't know if anyone saw Adrian Atkinson's tweet today: UNC is outscoring opponents by 4 per 100 possessions with Caleb Love in the game, but without Love, they are outscoring opponents by 26. The Heels are 32 points/100 on the defensive end with Love in the game. (Caleb Grill, incidentally, had a 2-point outing against Iowa on Thursday. His scoring since torching UNC for 31 has been 1, 16, 7, and 2)

We have two major problems with this team: distribution of the ball on offense, and defense from the guards. We saw some improvement with assists in this game, but still below average play with only 0.56 assists/field goal. Love is absolutely a scorer, but was really bad as a distributing PG. I've never really loved the offensive flow with RJ at PG, too. However when Seth Trimble is in the game, it feels like the offense clicks a little better, and the defense is vastly better. The times that I have recognized this year's team looking like a UNC team were when Trimble was in the game. I just wonder if it isn't time to consider using Trimble as the starting PG, working Love and RJ in at 2 and maybe 3, and Black, Nance, and Bacot at the 3, 4, and 5 given the matchup. I'm not saying to bench Caleb Love, but I'm just not sold that the Davis/Love/Black/Nance/Bacot lineup gives us the best chance at winning a National Championship.

This team is having trouble shooting from the left side of the floor. If you look at the Heat Map Shot Chart from cbbanalytics, you can see that except for the far left corner, they are ice cold from the left side of the court from very far out. (Don't look at Arizona's chart if you don't want your feelings hurt, but look at Houston if you want to feel good). It would be interesting to access shooting charts from practice, because my hunch is that this poor 3pt shooting for the season (29%) has more to do with ball distribution than it has to do with the players' shooting abilities.

 

[kjcooper]

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[TarHeelMark]

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