Stat Review: GT (1/15/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	Historical Comparison
Base Stats
FG%	48	53
3FG%	36	51
2FG%	55	67
FT%	90	96
fg%	46	27
3fg%	21	87
2fg%	53	20
ft%	57	78
PTS/POSS	1.06	82
pts/poss	0.86	47
POSS	83	38
POSDIF	7	76
%LOB	16	52
%lob	14	35
Interesting Stats
%FROM3	39.7	90
AST/POSS	0.24	77
ast/poss	0.13	70
TOTPOSS	159	26

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.
FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method)
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss)

MOV = Margin of Victory
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of Shots Taken From 3
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss

Discussion
This was an excellent performance by the Heels, making a bad GT team look bad. UNC shot the ball a little above average, but got a lot of extra points because they chose to shoot so many 3s; 40% of the shots taken were behind the arc. It's no surprise that those shots fell given that this was a home game against a poor defensive team. The Heels moved the ball very well, with a 0.24 assts/possession tally (77th
percentile).

We all know this team can score, so defense is really where we were looking for improvement. The Heels allowed GT to make a hight 53% of their shots from inside the arc. Thankfully GT was cold from outside, hitting 21% from beyond the arc. GT only got 0.13 assts/possession (70th percentile performance).

UNC beat GT across the board, qualitatively and quantitatively. While the stats get skewed by the increased playing time from the deep bench, this wasn't quite the blowout on paper that we witnessed. We don't see massive advantages for UNC in any of the stat departments. However what is there is an advantage in all of them; shooting, rebounding, assists. UNC's points per possession were an outstanding 1.06 pts/poss, but more importantly they held GT to 0.86 pts/poss.

It's good to see improvement on defense. The elephant in the room, however, is schedule difficulty. UNC hasn't beaten an NCAA tournament team yet this season. Miami is projected to make the field, and Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are currently bubble teams. Furman is the biggest wildcard of UNC's previous opponents. Joe Lunardi sees Furman winning their conference, so with a strong couple of months, the Furman win actually prove to be a better win than Michigan (7-7, 10th in the Big Ten).

The Heels are set to play 6 games in a two week period, and the first 3 are against tournament-level opponents, and the first two of those are away. We will learn a lot about this team's progress, their ability to hit the road, and their ability to stop a decent offense coming up. Can't wait!

 

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[JimmyNaismith]

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