Stat Review: @GT (1/30/24)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	36	8
3FG%	29	29
2FG%	41	12
FT%	53	7
fg%	41	54
3fg%	45	15
2fg%	39	78
ft%	88	8
PTS/POSS	0.76	10
pts/poss	0.89	38
TOTPOSS	179	74
POSDIF	13	94
%LOB	11	82
%lob	17	55
SmithIdx	-0.2311	13
Interesting Stats
ast/poss	0.12	76
AST/FG	0.61	58
OR%	0.45	85
or%	0.28	34
%FROM3	36.4	79

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
We've seen several games where the opponent just couldn't shoot, but that black ball landed in UNC's laps against Georgia Tech. UNC shot 36% from the field, something we've only witnessed 75 times in the last 1011 games. While the team was 29% from behind the arc, they were a putrid 41% inside the arc. That's happened 101 times in that period. When the ball wasn't in play the Heels couldn't shoot, either, making only 53% of those attempts. We've only seen that happen 69 times in the last 1011 games.

While the Heels only turned it over on 11% of the possessions, it all mounted to a paltry 0.76 points per possession performance. That (or worse) has happened 99 times in the last 1011 games.

Georgia Tech wasn't great, either, shooting 41% from the field: 45% from 3 and 39% from inside the arc. The real difference came at the free throw line where GT was 88%.

This was a 174-possession game, the 49th-fastest game in the last 1011 games. 166.1 is the average number of possession for this team, and 169.0 is the 28-year average.

Had the Heels performed to Dean Smith's offensive efficiency goal of 0.95, they would have scored 91 points. GT definitely doesn't look like a tournament team, and UNC should have won 91-74, so there is still much work to do for this team to be that really good, reliable team going into March.

The three-point shooting of Chapel-Hill-Cormac is becoming a chronic problem. In his 5 years of college, Ryan has shot 31.6%, 34.4, 40.7, 34.4, and now 30.0, respectively, from "3" each season. He's averaged 5.5 attempts per game at UNC, but against GT he threw it up 10 attempts. Yes, others shot around 30%, too, but this is a problem over several games that has to get corrected.

While the shooting woes are a big problem, the PG play is still an inconsistent entity. Cadeau has had several really good stretches as of late, especially with dribble penetration. He is still a long way from being a good defender, and that took its toll on the team last night (all 5 of his fouls were good calls). He has to learn how to defend without fouling, especially outside of the 3-point arc. There are too many of the "silly" variety, 45' from the basket. Those should improve over time, but they have to, because this team has to have Cadeau on the floor to be that team everyone scripted in mid-January. If I were an opposing coach, I'd go after Cadeau every possession and draw fouls like crazy.

Saturday will be a great litmus test for this team. Can't wait!

 

[kjcooper]

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[TarHeelMark]

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