Stat Review: @NC State (2/19/2023)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	35	6
3FG%	32	38
2FG%	38	6
FT%	75	66
fg%	45	31
3fg%	28	71
2fg%	51	29
ft%	80	21
PTS/POSS	0.81	18
pts/poss	0.97	18
TOTPOSS	164	38
POSDIF	6	72
%LOB	15	54
%lob	4	1
SmithIdx	-0.2629	10
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.32	2
ast/to	3.00	0
%from3	25	86
%FROM3	35.5	77

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The Heels went to Raleigh and, like in so many games recently, shoot poorly, didn't pass well, didn't defend well, but rebounded well. UNC was 35% from the floor, their 59th worst shooting game in the last 985. They were a decent 32% from 3, so it was the 38% from 2 that was the problem. The Assists/FG ratio was an abysmal 0.32, the 24th worst performance since 1996.

UNC turned in an 18th percentile performance on both offense and defense; 0.81 pts/poss and 0.97 pts/poss, respectively. It combined for a Smith Index of -0.2629, making it the 112th worst performance by a UNC in the last 985.

As I've said before, this team's glaring weakness is its defense. Great teams force turnovers, and NCSU only turned the ball over on 4% of its possessions. Only 3 opponents in the last 985 have enjoyed less ball pressure than the Heels applied today. After this week's performances, this team ranks right in the middle in UNC's offensive history, but is the 2nd worst defensive team UNC has had in the 3pt era.

Joe Lanardi said in his lengthy interview during the game, UNC just doesn't do anything well, and I mostly agree with him. Rebounding, however, is clearly this team's strength. In this game UNC enjoyed a 6 possession advantage over NCSU. UNC has outrebounded its last 12 opponents.

After winning 10 of 12 games, UNC has lost 5 of their last 6. The turning point? RJ Davis' injury against Syracuse. Ever since that point UNC's offense and defense have suffered mightily, with the exception of the game against a cliff-diving Clemson team.

For most of the season this team has fit the profile of a 2nd round loss kind of team. Now it finds itself in the company of 2003 and 2018 (as well as last year's team). With Hubert Davis' unwillingness to make striking changes, the return of old RJ is the only thing that can save this team from being the most disappointing team in college basketball history.