Stat Review: Ohio State (12/17/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	44	37
3FG%	21	13
2FG%	59	81
FT%	70	51
fg%	46	26
3fg%	38	37
2fg%	50	32
ft%	50	89
PTS/POSS	0.93	48
pts/poss	0.87	45
TOTPOSS	193	93
POSDIF	-1	33
%LOB	14	69
%lob	16	51
SmithIdx	-0.0389	45
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.63	62
AST/POSS	0.21	57
%RMS	0.40	68
%FROM3	38.9	87

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The Heels win a thriller in the Garden! It was a rough game for this team for 33 minutes, as Ohio State scored at will. In the first half Ohio State scored 1.00 points per possession while UNC was 0.82. UNC was down 9, essentially the largest deficit of the game, with 7 minutes remaining when they turned on the full-court defensive pressure. For these teams to end up at 0.87 and 0.93 just shows how much the game tilted in the final 7 minutes.

The most dramatic moment of the season so far came with 2 seconds remaining in regulation. Down 2, the Heels advanced it to half court for a quick timeout, then inbounded it to Pete Nance for a turnaround buzzer beater to send it to overtime. The 3rd stanza was all Heels.

How did the Heels have such a decisive efficiency advantage? OSU had one more possession, so UNC lost the rebounding battle. OSU shot 46% to UNC's 44%. UNC was an abysmal 21% from the arc. OSU lost the ball on 16% of their turnovers, but UNC lost it on 14%. What was the big difference? Free Throws. Ohio State was 7-14 from the line, but UNC was 19-27. The real difference was the rim attack from Bacot and Davis, who combined for 18 FTAs. While UNC fell in love with the 3 a high 39% of their possessions, it was this attack in the middle that was the difference.

The other takeaways are the palpable difference in defense when Leaky Black and Seth Trimble are on the floor vs. when Caleb Love and Puff Johnson are on the floor. Additionally it looks like Caleb Love still hasn't learned to separate his emotions from his shot selection. He hit a nice, tough 3 at the beginning the run, but then stymied the run some with some horrendous shot selection. One could argue that if he, instead, were focused on getting the ball inside, this game wouldn't have gone to OT. He truly is the most enigmatic player we've had in the last 18 years.

Statistically there weren't too many facets of the game that were unusual. The most unusual was the Rule of 69 being broken. Ohio State lead 69-64 with 5:14 remaining, but the Heels defied that 6% chance of winning. 69 with over 5 minutes means this pace was a bit faster than normal, and in fact there were 172 possessions per 40 mins (169.0 is average). We took an unusually high number of shots from 3, and our 3 points shooting was in the 13th percentile.