Stat Review: Portland (11/24/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	53	81
3FG%	50	88
2FG%	56	68
FT%	62	23
fg%	48	17
3fg%	38	37
2fg%	62	4
ft%	87	10
PTS/POSS	1.06	82
pts/poss	1.07	6
TOTPOSS	160	28
POSDIF	8	80
%LOB	15	53
%lob	16	46
SmithIdx	-0.1063	31
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.55	38
ast/fg	0.44	20
%RMS	0.44	80
%FROM3	37.9	85

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
For a while there I thought we were playing the Trailblazers. Portland absolutely gave their best shot at UNC, with an awesome offensive performance. They scored 1.07 pts/poss, but the Heels themselves answered with 1.06 pts/poss in a 3-point shooting clinic. In the last 963 games we've only seen an opponent score more efficiently 54 times. While it felt like Portland was hot from 3, they shot 38% from there, which is fairly common for an opponent. Inside the arc, however, the Pilots shot a whopping 62%. We've only had 45 opponents shoot that well in the last 963 games.

The Heels answer was to shoot their way out of their deficit, taking 38% of their shots from behind the arc and making HALF of them! We've only seen that 79 times. It felt like the Heels were terrible from the FT line, however their 62% shooting was an above average display for this program.

The game was won on rebounding, with the Heels getting 8 more possessions than Portland. UNC rebounded 44% of their missed shots, and rebounded 83% of Portland's missed shots. This team is not particularly consistent at anything but finding a way to win. Each of their 5 games so far have been closer than expected, and UNC has found a way to win differently in each game.

 

[kjcooper]

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