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Stat Review: @Syracuse (1/24/23)

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
113
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%4857
UNC_statBox_55.png

3FG%3856
UNC_statBox_55.png

2FG%5255
UNC_statBox_50.png

FT%6121
UNC_statBox_20.png

fg%519
UNC_statBox_5.png

3fg%4417
UNC_statBox_15.png

2fg%5419
UNC_statBox_15.png

ft%6754
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS0.9143
UNC_statBox_40.png

pts/poss0.9134
UNC_statBox_30.png

TOTPOSS15418
UNC_statBox_15.png

POSDIF461
UNC_statBox_60.png

%LOB1375
UNC_statBox_75.png

%lob2390
UNC_statBox_85.png

SmithIdx-0.095333
UNC_statBox_30.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.7185
UNC_statBox_85.png

AST/TO2.0080
UNC_statBox_75.png

%RMS0.208
UNC_statBox_5.png

%FROM327.645
UNC_statBox_45.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
Any win away is nice to have, but in a match against the #99 (NET) team, the game essentially came down to a Pete Nance FT put back and an RJ Davis drawn charge. It shouldn't be like this because Syracuse just isn't a tournament team.

The Heels' shooting was a pedestrian 48/38/52%, and they earned 4 more possessions than did Syracuse. Both teams scored 0.91 points per possession. Syracuse shot 51% from the field, so where was the real difference? Turnovers. UNC coughed it up on 13% of their possessions to Syracuse's 23%. In the end the Heels were just short of their offensive goal, and fairly far off of their defensive goal.

A few other noteworthy stats: UNC only rebounded 20% of their missed shots, but had 0.71 assists per field goal. This was another slow game, with only 154 possessions. Syracuse's 51% shooting has been eclipsed by only 81 of their last 979 opponents.

Despite poor 3-point shooting this season, this team is getting fairly close to its offensive goals each game. The problem with this team is on the defensive end. Over the last 28 seasons opponents have shot 41.5% from the field, but this team's opponents are shooting 43.7%. That's the 4th worst defensive performance for UNC. Others were 2002 (45.2%), 2003 (43.7%), and 2004 (44.5%). Each of UNC's last 6 teams have allowed opponents to average above the 28-year average of 41.5%. The defensive culture of the program has progressively crumbled since the back-to-back championship games.
 
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