Stat Review: @Syracuse (2/13/24)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	48	54
3FG%	44	77
2FG%	50	45
FT%	82	84
fg%	63	0
3fg%	47	11
2fg%	71	0
ft%	72	40
PTS/POSS	1.03	75
pts/poss	1.26	0
TOTPOSS	145	7
POSDIF	9	84
%LOB	14	62
%lob	12	19
SmithIdx	-0.3387	5
Interesting Stats
ast/poss	0.16	47
AST/FG	0.66	72
OR%	0.41	73
or%	0.17	81
%FROM3	44.3	95

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The Heels, coming off a near loss against Miami, found themselves on the true loss column again at Syracuse, with a 7-point defeat.

Contrary to much of the post-game analysis, this was a very good offensive game for UNC, scoring 1.03 points per possession. The Heels shot a bit above average overall (48%), but were excellent from 3 (44%). They did turn it over on 14% of their possessions, which is a bit more than average.

Defensively, however, the Heels were, once again, not good. Syracuse scored 1.26 points per possession, a level only seen 3 times in the last 1,013 games. Syracuse did it with red-hot shooting, especially within the arc (71%). We've only seen 1 team shoot better, 2015 Pitt.

Once again, UNC didn't for many turnovers, allowing Syracuse to turn it over on 12% of their possessions.

This was very slow-paced game, as well, with only 145 total possessions. We've only seen 62 slower games in the last 1,013 games.

---

So was this a putrid defensive performance or was Syracuse just out of their minds? We pondered the inverse a month ago when teams like Syracuse were shooting under 20% from 3-point land. Was it great defense or did UNC just face teams that happened to be cold? This is where the Percentage Loss of Ball is useful. Defensively we usually see an inverse relationship between Pts/Poss allowed and %LOB; the better the team is at preventing scoring, the better they usually are at forcing teams to turn it over.

When UNC was "holding" opponents to such low shooting numbers, I was suspicious because those teams were turning it over on less than 10% of their possessions as well. I have never believed that this is an elite defensive team. That said, while last night's defense was the biggest problem, it wasn't that bad. I've maintained that this team is, defensively, below the program's standard. Under Hubert Davis, guards are not forcing turnovers. We saw Duke penetrate and easily get to the ball 8' from the basket, but we also saw Syracuse penetrate with ease. This will be a key differentiator for this team in March.

 

[kjcooper]

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[sdingeldein]

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