Stat Review: UCLA (3/25/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	41	21
3FG%	32	39
2FG%	49	38
FT%	75	66
fg%	45	30
3fg%	36	43
2fg%	48	41
ft%	63	65
PTS/POSS	0.92	47
pts/poss	0.92	31
TOTPOSS	151	13
POSDIF	7	76
%LOB	10	89
%lob	8	5
SmithIdx	-0.0926	34
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.41	7
%FROM3	47.0	98
%from3	23	91
%LOB	10	89
%lob	8	5

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reportd
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
What a kooky tournament this is. At this point, all that stands between a Battle of the Blues in the Final Four is ...
Arkansas and a 15-seed? That's almost obscene.

The Heels keep proving Andrew Jones correct; the team has 4 scoring threats, and when two of them are on at any one time, this team will make a deep run into the tournament. In fact in the last two games UNC has had two different guards go for 30 points. That's almost unheard of in the sport.

While this game was mostly about the late-game shooting of Caleb Love, the Heels did a lot right to be within striking distance of one of this season's best teams. The Heels were a woeful 0.70 points per possession in the first half. They ended up scoring 0.92 for the game. They had a 7 possession advantage at halftime, however, and that was keeping them in the game. The second half was even on that front, and allowed the hot shooting to win the game for the Heels.

The UNC offensive flow ground down to basically jacking up 3s. The Heels had a very low 0.41 asist|fg ratio (0.59 is average, +/-0.12) UNC took 47% of their shots from behind the arc. That's a rate that has only been surpassed 31 times in the last 954 games. Conversely, UCLA took just 23% of their shots from behind the arc. Only 10% of our opponents have used the 3 less since 1996. I did a multiple regression analysis of a 900-game period of UNC games and found that 2-point field goal shooting was a very reliable indicator for the margin of victory negatively. That's right. The more 2s a team makes, the less of a chance they have of winning. This game of college basketball really depends of 3 point shooting. This is something to keep an eye on in other games.

This was a remarkably slow game, again, with 151 total possessions. That makes each basket more important.

Next up is St. Peter's. I'll preview them in a different thread.