In the last Stats post I reviewed some history which shows in no uncertain terms that in the modern shot-clock/3-point era prolific scoring is vital to Carolina Basketball success, which is why Roy came back home wanting to "play fast". And we noted that our 3 National Championship teams during this era have done just that:
1992-93 86.1 PPG (with a 45 second clock!)
2004-05 88.0 PPG
2008-09 89.8 PPG
How did we do this season?
2014-15 77.7 PPG
Ouch. That is the kind of number common to the Doherty era. Now 78 PPG might be a bonanza for the folks in Charlottesville, but that won't nearly cut it in the Carolina system. That's Driving Miss Daisy slow. So what can we do to get back up to speed literally and figuratively?
*2.2 is a Magic Number
I started keeping the PPM stats with different combos because we were not pushing tempo --- and since Roy hasn't changed his approach to the game, it was obviously a product of personnel groupings.
Modern history shows us to be most successful when scoring in the upper 80s PPG.
Since 2.2 PPM translates to 88 PPG, that is a pretty good benchmark for good team results.
*Remarkably Consistent
Generally you expect to see some aberrations from trends, but there weren't many with UNC this season. Roy's starting one-guard lineup pretty consistently failed to exceed 2 PPM against quality opponents. From Xmas on when I began keeping the numbers the starting/one-guard lineups came in at an aggregate just under 1.8 PPM (about 72 PPG). However, speaking of consistency, one particular combination pretty consistently exceeded our benchmark.
One-Guard lineups 1.79 PPM
Multi-Guard lineups 2.08 PPM
Berry/Paige lineups 2.34 PPM
*Backcourt is Key
The '93 team was deep and versatile and could go big with Salvadori paired with Montross or smaller with George Lynch sliding into the 4 slot. The '05 team was a full-time small lineup with Jawad Williams being a 3 playing as a stretch-4, as did Marvin Williams off the bench, while '09 was more traditional with Deon Thompson or Ed Davis paired with Psycho-T.
What these 3 championship teams had in common were outstanding backcourts, each with a first-rate true PG and a 2-Guard who could fill it up from deep as well as being the secondary ball-handler and finisher comfortable with pushing pace.
'92-'93 Derrick Phelps / Donald Williams
'04-'05 Ray Felton / Rashad McCants
'08-'09 Ty Lawson / Wayne Ellington
For '15-'16 a Joel Berry / Marcus Paige combination could follow that tradition and fill the aforementioned roles quite nicely and make another terrific Carolina backcourt. It is also the only option we have that can fill those roles on a consistent basis. Hopefully viable, consistent backups will emerge as well.
The numbers say (very loudly) that this is the key to next season's aspirations. The 2.34 PPM number translates to an impressive 93.6 PPG, and Joel Berry has already shown himself to be a tenacious defender to boot, and a healthy Marcus Paige ain't bad either, with his athleticism and toughness making up for his size.
The bottom line is with (almost) everyone back, Roy will face a similar personnel dilemma as last season. He will have multiple options at the 3, 4 and 5 slots (edit: maybe not so much with JP leaving), and it will present quite a dilemma on whom to take out of the starting lineup if he decides to do so, but I feel confident in saying the best (and perhaps only) chance for UNC to realize our championship aspirations is for the first two players listed in the score book every night to be #2 and #5.
*Notable Individual Numbers
Going back to the criteria set by Dean Smith, a key stat for Carolina players (especially those who handle the ball a lot) is Assist-to-Turnover ratio, with a "positive" ratio being 1-to-1 or better, and the goal for "winning basketball" is 2-to-1 or better. For the past season, among those who played significant minutes, only three players reached that goal:
Paige (2.3-to-1), Berry (2.2-to-1), and (surprisingly), Theo Pinson at just under 2.2-to-1 (this number may bode well for Theo becoming a reliable backup at the 2 spot).
BTW: although we don't expect quite the same standard for post players, alarmingly (albeit not surprisingly) Joel James had a "negative" ratio (0.3-to-1)... and Isiah Hicks was only slightly better. Most of Isiah's TOs were TOs of aggression. Unfortunately Big Joel's were usually simple failures to catch or keep control of the ball. Both of their numbers need to improve considerably.
Finally, an encouraging number was the improvement in our outside shooting, especially down the stretch. In ACC conference play Marcus Paige (41.5%), Nate Britt (42.4%) and Joel Berry (41.2%) all exceeded 40% from 3, and although his season pct wasn't good, Justin Jackson came on strong shooting from deep at tourney time giving an encouraging preview for next season. And speaking of which, over the final 11 games Joel Berry shot the 3-ball at a rate of 47.5 %.
*Postscript: Defense
Thanks largely to improvement in this area by our Bigs, this season's team could be pretty good defensively at times, and there's no reason that can't continue to improve. Cleaning up the defensive glass will be a priority. We allowed too many offensive rebounds, plus controlling the boards is key to triggering the running game --- and as per the theme of this post, that is very much a key to our success.
This post was edited on 4/9 12:27 AM by gary-7
1992-93 86.1 PPG (with a 45 second clock!)
2004-05 88.0 PPG
2008-09 89.8 PPG
How did we do this season?
2014-15 77.7 PPG
Ouch. That is the kind of number common to the Doherty era. Now 78 PPG might be a bonanza for the folks in Charlottesville, but that won't nearly cut it in the Carolina system. That's Driving Miss Daisy slow. So what can we do to get back up to speed literally and figuratively?
*2.2 is a Magic Number
I started keeping the PPM stats with different combos because we were not pushing tempo --- and since Roy hasn't changed his approach to the game, it was obviously a product of personnel groupings.
Modern history shows us to be most successful when scoring in the upper 80s PPG.
Since 2.2 PPM translates to 88 PPG, that is a pretty good benchmark for good team results.
*Remarkably Consistent
Generally you expect to see some aberrations from trends, but there weren't many with UNC this season. Roy's starting one-guard lineup pretty consistently failed to exceed 2 PPM against quality opponents. From Xmas on when I began keeping the numbers the starting/one-guard lineups came in at an aggregate just under 1.8 PPM (about 72 PPG). However, speaking of consistency, one particular combination pretty consistently exceeded our benchmark.
One-Guard lineups 1.79 PPM
Multi-Guard lineups 2.08 PPM
Berry/Paige lineups 2.34 PPM
*Backcourt is Key
The '93 team was deep and versatile and could go big with Salvadori paired with Montross or smaller with George Lynch sliding into the 4 slot. The '05 team was a full-time small lineup with Jawad Williams being a 3 playing as a stretch-4, as did Marvin Williams off the bench, while '09 was more traditional with Deon Thompson or Ed Davis paired with Psycho-T.
What these 3 championship teams had in common were outstanding backcourts, each with a first-rate true PG and a 2-Guard who could fill it up from deep as well as being the secondary ball-handler and finisher comfortable with pushing pace.
'92-'93 Derrick Phelps / Donald Williams
'04-'05 Ray Felton / Rashad McCants
'08-'09 Ty Lawson / Wayne Ellington
For '15-'16 a Joel Berry / Marcus Paige combination could follow that tradition and fill the aforementioned roles quite nicely and make another terrific Carolina backcourt. It is also the only option we have that can fill those roles on a consistent basis. Hopefully viable, consistent backups will emerge as well.
The numbers say (very loudly) that this is the key to next season's aspirations. The 2.34 PPM number translates to an impressive 93.6 PPG, and Joel Berry has already shown himself to be a tenacious defender to boot, and a healthy Marcus Paige ain't bad either, with his athleticism and toughness making up for his size.
The bottom line is with (almost) everyone back, Roy will face a similar personnel dilemma as last season. He will have multiple options at the 3, 4 and 5 slots (edit: maybe not so much with JP leaving), and it will present quite a dilemma on whom to take out of the starting lineup if he decides to do so, but I feel confident in saying the best (and perhaps only) chance for UNC to realize our championship aspirations is for the first two players listed in the score book every night to be #2 and #5.
*Notable Individual Numbers
Going back to the criteria set by Dean Smith, a key stat for Carolina players (especially those who handle the ball a lot) is Assist-to-Turnover ratio, with a "positive" ratio being 1-to-1 or better, and the goal for "winning basketball" is 2-to-1 or better. For the past season, among those who played significant minutes, only three players reached that goal:
Paige (2.3-to-1), Berry (2.2-to-1), and (surprisingly), Theo Pinson at just under 2.2-to-1 (this number may bode well for Theo becoming a reliable backup at the 2 spot).
BTW: although we don't expect quite the same standard for post players, alarmingly (albeit not surprisingly) Joel James had a "negative" ratio (0.3-to-1)... and Isiah Hicks was only slightly better. Most of Isiah's TOs were TOs of aggression. Unfortunately Big Joel's were usually simple failures to catch or keep control of the ball. Both of their numbers need to improve considerably.
Finally, an encouraging number was the improvement in our outside shooting, especially down the stretch. In ACC conference play Marcus Paige (41.5%), Nate Britt (42.4%) and Joel Berry (41.2%) all exceeded 40% from 3, and although his season pct wasn't good, Justin Jackson came on strong shooting from deep at tourney time giving an encouraging preview for next season. And speaking of which, over the final 11 games Joel Berry shot the 3-ball at a rate of 47.5 %.
*Postscript: Defense
Thanks largely to improvement in this area by our Bigs, this season's team could be pretty good defensively at times, and there's no reason that can't continue to improve. Cleaning up the defensive glass will be a priority. We allowed too many offensive rebounds, plus controlling the boards is key to triggering the running game --- and as per the theme of this post, that is very much a key to our success.
This post was edited on 4/9 12:27 AM by gary-7
