Stats and (ugh) stuff - Harvard game

[gary-7]

I've been warning you guys over and over that if Roy keeps beating the dead horse of one-guard lineups we would be lucky to survive a sub-regional. Welp, tonight you saw it. We were damned lucky (and we still haven't finished the sub-regional).

People can talk about "intensity" and "sense of urgency" yada yada yada all they want, but the fact is that our dysfunction was enabled by the personnel combinations being put on the floor, especially when those combinations don't make a lick of sense matching up against your opponent. We spent the last 9:24 in a big lineup and it damned near cost us the game... and let's not kid ourselves, in a game in which the talent differential was E N O R M O U S .

One might have thought Roy would've learned something from the first half:
We spent 12:16 in one-guard lineups and scored at the blistering pace of 1.3 PPM with 6 TOs.
Meanwhile the 7:44 in two-guard (Berry/Paige) sets we scored at 2.7 PPM with 2 TOs. Hmmm.

Here's the one-guard lineup tally for the game: 28:14 1.6 PPM 14 TOs.
BTW: Over 40 minutes that translates to 64 PPG and 20 TOs. Count on one hand how many games you'll win in a season doing that.

In the second half Joel Berry had barely broken a sweat when with 9:24 to go Roy goes back to his comfort zone. So f-ing what if JB blew a layup on a fast break by trying to draw a foul. That happens. At least we were pushing the ball and forcing the damned tempo and making things happen --- a helluva lot more good than bad --- in that lineup. In Berry's 12-and-3/4 total minutes on the floor we scored 13 transition points. We only had 11 for the rest of the game.
And again, that last 9:24 was just ugly.

I love Roy and am glad we have him... but this game should not have ever been in doubt..... and I'll just leave it at that.

 

[DSouthr]

Gary, I get what Roy is thinking but I like you disagree with it. Roy s thinking with these smallish teams that we have such an advantage inthe paint both on th eboards as well as easier looks when the ball gets in to them, ability to draw fouls ect from smaller defenders. I get that he also feels shooting over our length is a bit like what other teams find so hard to do vs Ky.

But the problem is guys like Meeks & Joel are not abale to step out and defend as fluidly as those fellas at Ky & Brice & Hicks, thou more able to move their feet don't all the time, reach to much, and pick up to many fouls that are wasted fouls, bad fouls. That 4py play happened because meeks couldn't close out and Paige felt he had to help out, Meeks able to close out and the shot is much harder and no foul is there. That is where we get hurt with these smaller teams, when they spread out and we switch to a big guarding a ball handler, real disadvantage to the big man having to defend so far out.

As you discuss gary, we have ot go smaller to defend those smaller guys out in space. The crazy thing is even when we go small with a line up like Berry, Paige, JJ, JP/Theo, & Brice or Hicks we still have a solid size advantage yet our ability to defend ratchets up big time. TRhere are points in the game the big line up is important but there are also points where we should be going small IMO and don't. Joel & Meeks both gave us some key buckets but vs harvard IMO I would not have played them as much because their feet when defending off a switch are slow.

And of course, time for Brice to wake up, that wasn't the same Brice that played most of the ACCT, last night was the Brice that made Roy challenge his manhood, maybe Roy needs to challenge him yet again, Brice seems to forget. .

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

 

[heels05champs]

Great post Gary. I agree with what you said. Arkansas is going to pose similar problems with their athletic ability. I see it as a game where meeks and James need limited minutes because the tempo will be 100mph. Hicks and Johnson are more suited for this type of game. Also think we need more Berry as he's the most able to push tempo for us.

 

[RP12]

Gary,
I know your thoughts on JP effectively running the point, but in the minutes that he does this, which apparently will continue to be a portion of the game, where do you stand on his shooting the wide open 3? Seems to me many of our flow issues would be somewhat improved if he would take those wide open shots, which I believe he can make at a decent pecentage.

 

[UNC71-00]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:
Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

Correct. If our whole team played to potential, we would be a one seed and ranked # 2 at worst.

But the team has rarely played to their ability this season for an enitire game. Heck, it hasn't happened very much for half a game.

When it happens occasionally, I look to the players for the reason. When it happens repeatedly, I look to the coach.



This post was edited on 3/20 10:00 AM by UNC71-00

 

[BillyL]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:

Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

If, you mean the 'Joel Berry is the greatest PG since sliced bread' the day after the game thread . . ?

Joel played very well last night. Outside of missing a wide-open layup at a crunch time . . I pray that he wasn't trying to draw a foul there. Make the layup first, take a foul if it's given to you. Layups are far easier to make than 2 foul shots . .

 

[goheels653]

I live in Jacksonville and haven't gotten to see us live since I left Greensboro in 2010, so first of all, it was awesome. Would've preferred a blowout but it was really cool getting to experience that environment. When dude had the 4 point play, I nearly crapped my pants, but looking back it was really cool feeling the entire crowd just EXPLODE in an instant when that shot dropped.

As far as this thread goes, I had awesome seats and got to watch the first half from a really good angle behind the offense. My takeaway - Berry should be playing 25-30 minutes per game. This team is SO MUCH BETTER with him running the point. I won't go so far as to say he is our best overall guard at this point because I still believe in Paige, but there is no doubt in my mind Berry has the highest NBA ceiling of any of the guards on this squad (assuming Jackson is more of an NBA 3). He constantly looks to attack the rim in half court and open floor, and while he obviously isn't as quick as Lawson (for example), I think might end up proving to be pretty close to as skilled and otherwise he is just so strong. Some guys that were in the row behind me and had no rooting interest in any of the 8 teams in Jacksonville, and hadn't watched Carolina play this year, were beyond confused why he wasn't in the game at the end.

Anyways, I've been tracking these numbers all year posted by Gary and I have basically always agreed that it made sense, but after seeing the kid in person I'm convinced for sure. He is an f'ing bulldog and we need all the minutes we can get out of him. Seeing him in person made me remember those videos that were going around last year of him crushing people as a middle linebacker in high school. Everyone on the floor is better with him out there except for the other team.

With all that said, I get why Roy might see it as a tough call. Paige, Jackson and Brice deserve big minutes also, and we need big minutes from Kennedy. Our offensive rebounding advantage is huge. That leaves Tokoto as the obvious source of Berry's minutes, but I don't know how to really limit those. For example, I thought Tokoto did a great job faceguarding 23 in the second half... a few lapses but that's to be expected in that context. Without that role from JP, that guy easily could've continued what he did in the first half, which is the only reason it was remotely close at halftime. Roy is definitely in a tricky spot with minutes, but that's his job and he HAS to find more minutes for Berry. Team is just straight up better with him out there.

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:
Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

Sadly mike, I think Brice's overall game goes as his offense goes. If his first couple of shots don't fall, Brice too often lags in every other aspect.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Originally posted by BillyL:

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:

Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

If, you mean the 'Joel Berry is the greatest PG since sliced bread' the day after the game thread . . ?

Joel played very well last night. Outside of missing a wide-open layup at a crunch time . . I pray that he wasn't trying to draw a foul there. Make the layup first, take a foul if it's given to you. Layups are far easier to make than 2 foul shots . .

The one thing that really bothered me about that layup, it was an obvious left handed layup and he tried to use his right hand! Can he not use his left?

But obviously, Berry is giving us some GREAT minutes and I'm looking forward to seeing him run the team.

 

[BillyL]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:

Originally posted by BillyL:

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:

Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

If, you mean the 'Joel Berry is the greatest PG since sliced bread' the day after the game thread . . ?

Joel played very well last night. Outside of missing a wide-open layup at a crunch time . . I pray that he wasn't trying to draw a foul there. Make the layup first, take a foul if it's given to you. Layups are far easier to make than 2 foul shots . .

The one thing that really bothered me about that layup, it was an obvious left handed layup and he tried to use his right hand! Can he not use his left?

But obviously, Berry is giving us some GREAT minutes and I'm looking forward to seeing him run the team.

Berry is going to be a highly productive guard no doubt, some of the progress he has made since coming back from injury is just eye-opening.

I think what goheels653 posted above is very accurate, its the true dilemma that Roy is faced with, where is it you go to (from our starters) that you can give JB more minutes . . ?

Jackson is our best freshman player, Tokoto has the ability to slow down the opponent's best wing scorer and still grab 6 or 7 rebounds, you can't rotate Jackson or even Tokoto to the 4 spot and move our second leading scorer(Brice Johnson) out for any length of time. Unfortunately, Berry is just not point productive enough right now to swap him out for Jackson or Paige. Maybe steal some of JP's minutes . . but, if you do, are you making an improvement in overall offense/defense play that justifies the swap in minutes.

Fast forward to next season, what element of this 'problem' changes for next year, especially if either Tokoto or Pinson make great strides in improving their games and Paige ultimately returns for his senior season . .

IMO, Roy is dealing with a team whose pieces of the puzzle simply aren't going to fit whatever the combinations are he uses . .

 

[ethanga62890]

Berry paige and Brice are the only 3 that should see 25 min+ a game.

 

[Raising Heel]

It's also worth noting that Carolina went scoreless from the time Berry went out of the game with 7:04 left in the first half to the time he returned with 3:54 remaining (3:10 total). Meanwhile, Harvard went on an 8-0 run.

Looking at it a different way, here are the first half stats per 40 minutes:

One-guard lineup: 18/43 FGs (41.7%), 53 pts, 39 rebs, 25 fouls, 7 asts, 18 TOs, 4 blks
Two-guard lineup: 41/59 FGs (69.2%), 96 pts, 50 rebs, 5 fouls, 18 asts, 9 TOs, 0 blks

Are you kidding? Other than the blocks, the two-guard lineup was ridiculously better in every category, even rebounds. Granted, this is too small a sample size, but I know gary has been looking at this issue most of the season. Aside from stats, my eyes also tell me we're better with Berry on the court. It'll be interesting to see what Roy does against Arkansas.


This post was edited on 3/20 1:22 PM by Raising Heel

 

[Louigi]

Gary needs to start a "Tokoto throws the ball to the other team stat tracker". As a casual observer, it seems to be about 3-4 a game.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why he is so careless with the ball at times. I don't know how that can be coached out of a player unless you just keep them on the bench until they stop doing it.

 

[miketyburski]

What Gary needs to do is send his post to Roy. I would not have any coach but our coach: the facts are the facts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by Raising Heel:
It's also worth noting that Carolina went scoreless from the time Berry went out of the game with 7:04 left in the first half to the time he returned with 3:54 remaining (3:10 total). Meanwhile, Harvard went on an 8-0 run.

Looking at it a different way, here are the first half stats per 40 minutes:

One-guard lineup: 18/43 FGs (41.7%), 53 pts, 39 rebs, 25 fouls, 7 asts, 18 TOs, 4 blks
Two-guard lineup: 41/59 FGs (69.2%), 96 pts, 50 rebs, 5 fouls, 18 asts, 9 TOs, 0 blks

Are you kidding? Other than the blocks, the two-guard lineup was ridiculously better in every category, even rebounds. Granted, this is too small a sample size, but I know gary has been looking at this issue most of the season. Aside from stats, my eyes also tell me we're better with Berry on the court. It'll be interesting to see what Roy does against Arkansas.


This post was edited on 3/20 1:22 PM by Raising Heel

Your eyes are correct.
My eyes are the reason I started to keep these stats during games to make sure I hadn't lost my acuity (and to stay busy enough to keep my head from exploding --- it still almost did last night).

 

[UNC71-00]

Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

I would venture to say that he's sticking with what has worked for him historically.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

My guess is, you take away the Berry-Theo injuries and we see something very different.

We all get it, you want Berry to start.

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:
My guess is, you take away the Berry-Theo injuries and we see something very different.

We all get it, you want Berry to start.

Absolutely mike! If Berry doesn't pull the groin, you see much more Berry than Britt about a month earlier. Pinson is the real sad one though. He hit the freshman wall around the same time as his injury and hasn't busted through since his return.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:
Brice shows up-our whole front line knock off the silly turnovers and this thread never happens..............................no wait! Yes it would.

...which would have made the dysfunction somewhat less bad? Yep.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by goheels653:
I live in Jacksonville and haven't gotten to see us live since I left Greensboro in 2010, so first of all, it was awesome. Would've preferred a blowout but it was really cool getting to experience that environment. When dude had the 4 point play, I nearly crapped my pants, but looking back it was really cool feeling the entire crowd just EXPLODE in an instant when that shot dropped.

As far as this thread goes, I had awesome seats and got to watch the first half from a really good angle behind the offense. My takeaway - Berry should be playing 25-30 minutes per game. This team is SO MUCH BETTER with him running the point. I won't go so far as to say he is our best overall guard at this point because I still believe in Paige, but there is no doubt in my mind Berry has the highest NBA ceiling of any of the guards on this squad (assuming Jackson is more of an NBA 3). He constantly looks to attack the rim in half court and open floor, and while he obviously isn't as quick as Lawson (for example), I think might end up proving to be pretty close to as skilled and otherwise he is just so strong. Some guys that were in the row behind me and had no rooting interest in any of the 8 teams in Jacksonville, and hadn't watched Carolina play this year, were beyond confused why he wasn't in the game at the end.

Anyways, I've been tracking these numbers all year posted by Gary and I have basically always agreed that it made sense, but after seeing the kid in person I'm convinced for sure. He is an f'ing bulldog and we need all the minutes we can get out of him. Seeing him in person made me remember those videos that were going around last year of him crushing people as a middle linebacker in high school. Everyone on the floor is better with him out there except for the other team.

With all that said, I get why Roy might see it as a tough call. Paige, Jackson and Brice deserve big minutes also, and we need big minutes from Kennedy. Our offensive rebounding advantage is huge. That leaves Tokoto as the obvious source of Berry's minutes, but I don't know how to really limit those. For example, I thought Tokoto did a great job faceguarding 23 in the second half... a few lapses but that's to be expected in that context. Without that role from JP, that guy easily could've continued what he did in the first half, which is the only reason it was remotely close at halftime. Roy is definitely in a tricky spot with minutes, but that's his job and he HAS to find more minutes for Berry. Team is just straight up better with him out there.

Thanks for responding. Spot on in all points. And just as you observed, when I got to see the team play in person the differences in how the team is spaced and runs are even more striking live than they are on TV. The statistical divergence that shows up week after week is no accident.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

This is purely my theory:
Roy started the season without a legit 2 on the roster. He was reluctant to risk moving Marcus there because of how bad it was last season when he tried that before McDonald came back. What he didn't get was that the problems then were from Nate being the starting PG, not from Paige playing the 2.

He likely also thought that Jackson could adapt to the 2, but we've all seen how that has gone. He has a 3 mentality as opposed to being a secondary ball-handler. Thus JP steps into that position once they get on the floor (yikes!).

Now, I do feel pretty safe in saying that without the groin injury, and then the virus that delayed it, Berry would have moved into the starting lineup. Sadly, at this point so late in the season, it's now probably a combination of a comfort zone and his legendary stubbornness in that Roy always gravitates back to his starters down the stretch.

 

[DSouthr]

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

That is an easy question to answer, it has a couple parts to the answer, but I have talked about why before and thought I did in this thread but maybe I wasn't clear.

Roy likes the big man line up over the smaller guys because we used that big man look really effectively against some ACC foes, coaches are funny critters, they tend to go back to what worked before. I mean, the big man line up does give is some distinct advantges, you should own the boards, you should be able to pound the ball inside for easy looks, you should be able to draw the smaller interior defenders into foul trouble. Those are advantages that most any coach would covet and frankly, when guys like JP throw sucessful passes, we tend to dominate the opposing team from the big team look.

The other consideration is this was a line up that got more practice time because of injury and it is more experienced, what coach doesn't love guys that have had more practice time and more experience? This is all coaoching 101 stuff so it is easy to see why Roy is so hestiatent to go away from it.

But the problem becomes that guy like JP, he may be able to toss a sweet high lite reel pass 2 or 3 times in a row, what about the 2 or 3 that end up TOs and especially if they are TOs at critical parts of the game. Your big like Brice may get away guarding a 1 or a 2 a couple trips down court but what happens when that 2 is able to drive by him and Brice reaches to catch up, silly foul and before ya know it Brice is in foul trouble because he drew 2 or 3 against guards, not forwards that he is quicker than.

I think it is totally fair for me to disagree with Roy on this one, I agree with Roy when I agree & I disagree when I don't, I could not agree with any coach's actions 100% of the time, heck I couldn't even agree with myself 100% of the time even thou I would be right 100% of the time (thats a joke folks, get the jokes). Simply put, as I said in my first post in this thread, I understand why Roy believes in the big man line up and I like it to as a change up during the game but I just disagree that is what makes us better to start the game and I disagree it is our best way to deal with those teams of small guys that love to jump shoot. Big men guarding guards out & away from the basket is a mismatch 100% of the time folks just as real and just as big a mismatch as a little guy trying to post up a guy 10" taller. I mean in basketball 101, the mismatch of a big man to small & small to big is day 1 lesson 1 stuff.

This is EXACTLY why you have seen me screaming for Joel Berry, I watched Joel in AAU and EYBL, the kid is a freakin bull dog and he is primary a distributor that only looks to score when the op is there, he does not force his own scoring but he is physically strong, second at best to Paige on our team as a ball handler as a freshman that got really little PT for the first half of this season. Berry balances us because he takes the challenge of playing defense as his personal mission, the kid LOVES to defend as much as he LOVES an assist. JP is a wing and as a wing needs to go against other wings, even as talented and atheletic at JP is, him trying to handle college 2s & PG is a mismatch that is not in our favor and read that to clearly state IN MY OPINION>

I am not saying we should not be in a big line up look, I am saying you have to consider the team you are playing. Against a team like ND that regualrly puts 4 guys on the court together that can all nail treys I like us in more a small ball look for us, which is more like a medium look for pretty much most teams. Ky gets away with putting 3 guys on the court all near 7ft but those guys are not only mega talents but they move their feet darn good for guys with that kind of length. Willie Caulley, Karl Townes can legit guard wings, you don't see that often wher a kid 6'11" or 7ft that can move his feet well enough to guard wings. We don't have a single guy 6'9" or more that is able to move his feet well enough to guard a legit wing and Ky has 2 for sure and Lyles can for short periods as well. THAT is their HUGE advantage & Roy knows that advantage, he just doesn;t have the talent to do that for him. The best big man defender we had was Hubert but he is hurt and done for the season, well his career actually at this point.

Folks, that isn't me slamming Roy, that is simply my disagreeing with Roy and to me there isn't a thing in the world wrong with that, I doubt there is a single person here that doesn't disagree with what Roy does at times, there isn't a dukeie that agrees with what K does all the time, UNC fans for sure didn't always agree with Dean. There ain't but 2 mean that have walked this rock that I believe in 100% of the time, one was my daddy and the other fella had a really cool book written about him, it was the best selling book of all time...Maybe ya read it, they review that book on Sunday mornings in a bunch of places around most every town and lots of folk dress up for the book review sessions.

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Originally posted by DSouthr:

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

That is an easy question to answer, it has a couple parts to the answer, but I have talked about why before and thought I did in this thread but maybe I wasn't clear.

Roy likes the big man line up over the smaller guys because we used that big man look really effectively against some ACC foes, coaches are funny critters, they tend to go back to what worked before. I mean, the big man line up does give is some distinct advantges, you should own the boards, you should be able to pound the ball inside for easy looks, you should be able to draw the smaller interior defenders into foul trouble. Those are advantages that most any coach would covet and frankly, when guys like JP throw sucessful passes, we tend to dominate the opposing team from the big team look.

The other consideration is this was a line up that got more practice time because of injury and it is more experienced, what coach doesn't love guys that have had more practice time and more experience? This is all coaoching 101 stuff so it is easy to see why Roy is so hestiatent to go away from it.

But the problem becomes that guy like JP, he may be able to toss a sweet high lite reel pass 2 or 3 times in a row, what about the 2 or 3 that end up TOs and especially if they are TOs at critical parts of the game. Your big like Brice may get away guarding a 1 or a 2 a couple trips down court but what happens when that 2 is able to drive by him and Brice reaches to catch up, silly foul and before ya know it Brice is in foul trouble because he drew 2 or 3 against guards, not forwards that he is quicker than.

I think it is totally fair for me to disagree with Roy on this one, I agree with Roy when I agree & I disagree when I don't, I could not agree with any coach's actions 100% of the time, heck I couldn't even agree with myself 100% of the time even thou I would be right 100% of the time (thats a joke folks, get the jokes). Simply put, as I said in my first post in this thread, I understand why Roy believes in the big man line up and I like it to as a change up during the game but I just disagree that is what makes us better to start the game and I disagree it is our best way to deal with those teams of small guys that love to jump shoot. Big men guarding guards out & away from the basket is a mismatch 100% of the time folks just as real and just as big a mismatch as a little guy trying to post up a guy 10" taller. I mean in basketball 101, the mismatch of a big man to small & small to big is day 1 lesson 1 stuff.

This is EXACTLY why you have seen me screaming for Joel Berry, I watched Joel in AAU and EYBL, the kid is a freakin bull dog and he is primary a distributor that only looks to score when the op is there, he does not force his own scoring but he is physically strong, second at best to Paige on our team as a ball handler as a freshman that got really little PT for the first half of this season. Berry balances us because he takes the challenge of playing defense as his personal mission, the kid LOVES to defend as much as he LOVES an assist. JP is a wing and as a wing needs to go against other wings, even as talented and atheletic at JP is, him trying to handle college 2s & PG is a mismatch that is not in our favor and read that to clearly state IN MY OPINION>

I am not saying we should not be in a big line up look, I am saying you have to consider the team you are playing. Against a team like ND that regualrly puts 4 guys on the court together that can all nail treys I like us in more a small ball look for us, which is more like a medium look for pretty much most teams. Ky gets away with putting 3 guys on the court all near 7ft but those guys are not only mega talents but they move their feet darn good for guys with that kind of length. Willie Caulley, Karl Townes can legit guard wings, you don't see that often wher a kid 6'11" or 7ft that can move his feet well enough to guard wings. We don't have a single guy 6'9" or more that is able to move his feet well enough to guard a legit wing and Ky has 2 for sure and Lyles can for short periods as well. THAT is their HUGE advantage & Roy knows that advantage, he just doesn;t have the talent to do that for him. The best big man defender we had was Hubert but he is hurt and done for the season, well his career actually at this point.

Folks, that isn't me slamming Roy, that is simply my disagreeing with Roy and to me there isn't a thing in the world wrong with that, I doubt there is a single person here that doesn't disagree with what Roy does at times, there isn't a dukeie that agrees with what K does all the time, UNC fans for sure didn't always agree with Dean. There ain't but 2 mean that have walked this rock that I believe in 100% of the time, one was my daddy and the other fella had a really cool book written about him, it was the best selling book of all time...Maybe ya read it, they review that book on Sunday mornings in a bunch of places around most every town and lots of folk dress up for the book review sessions.

Tru Blu's stamp of approval on this one.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by DSouthr:

This is EXACTLY why you have seen me screaming for Joel Berry, I watched Joel in AAU and EYBL, the kid is a freakin bull dog and he is primary a distributor that only looks to score when the op is there, he does not force his own scoring but he is physically strong, second at best to Paige on our team as a ball handler as a freshman that got really little PT for the first half of this season. Berry balances us because he takes the challenge of playing defense as his personal mission, the kid LOVES to defend as much as he LOVES an assist. JP is a wing and as a wing needs to go against other wings, even as talented and atheletic at JP is, him trying to handle college 2s & PG is a mismatch that is not in our favor and read that to clearly state IN MY OPINION>

Dave, you are spot on about the kid. One of my buddies who coaches AAU turned me on to Berry a couple of years ago and since we were recruiting him I started paying attention. You described his game to a tee. And I'll add one thing. As unselfifish though he is, he can take a game over when it is called for. He has the floor general mentality of a great PG. The frustrating thing is that we are only seeing parts of the package. The rest will come when Roy gives the young fella the same vote of confidence he gives Paige.

Playing PG in the Carolina system is more challenging than in any other and I was fine with Roy easing him into the role early, and yes, the injury and illness set back his natural ascendency to the starting lineup... but that is done now.

Maybe it's too late this season to get the light blue machine to mesh, but the best chance this team has to go any further is Roy giving JB his full confidence.

 

[DSouthr]

Originally posted by gary-7:

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
Gary- here's my $64,000 question:

Why do you think Roy insists on the 1 guard lineup? What could he possibly be seeing to support his decision?

This is purely my theory:
Roy started the season without a legit 2 on the roster. He was reluctant to risk moving Marcus there because of how bad it was last season when he tried that before McDonald came back. What he didn't get was that the problems then were from Nate being the starting PG, not from Paige playing the 2.

He likely also thought that Jackson could adapt to the 2, but we've all seen how that has gone. He has a 3 mentality as opposed to being a secondary ball-handler. Thus JP steps into that position once they get on the floor (yikes!).

Now, I do feel pretty safe in saying that without the groin injury, and then the virus that delayed it, Berry would have moved into the starting lineup. Sadly, at this point so late in the season, it's now probably a combination of a comfort zone and his legendary stubbornness in that Roy always gravitates back to his starters down the stretch.

Last year Roy was forced due to the players he had available as well as the ones he did not have available to go to a couple freshmen and a very little used soph (JP) for heavy minutes. Clearly that was a struggle and I don't think Roy wanted to go thru having so much inexperience on the floor this season. I have said many times, I felt marcus was a college 2 guard and I felt he was as good a college 2 as you would find in the country, without the injuries I still believe that. But Roy saw Jackson and realizes the ability as well as mismatches a sweet shooting guy like Jackson presents, yet had experienced guys on his roster that could handle the point. I fell like Roy decided to invest PT in the freshman Jackson and go to more experienced guys for the other posiitons.

Roy has always been slow to hand the keys over to a freshman PG, Paige started but Dexter was more the PG, Kendal didn't get the keys until well in to his freshman season, Britt would not have started last season had PJ or Lmac been available to begin the season, it is even real questionable how long it would have taken Roy to start Ty Lawson until Bobby Frazier hurt his foot. So Roy hesitating to hand the keys over to another freshman PG is not a surprise. Surprise would be more Roy handing the keys to a true freshman PG and starting a freshman wing as well, when he did have so much experienced talent available. Roy elected to just start one freshman and move JP over to the 2 and at times fill in the PG role when we needed marcus to look for his shot more. JP is a bit like Ginyard was, he can handle the 2 against many teams and even the point from brief periods but it just isn;t a great fit for 40mins and against every team. It isn't because as atheletic as JP is, him defending a ball handler college 2 is advantage in quickness to the 2 guard when they are out on the peremeter. PLus the fact that JP help defends a lot and tends to turn his head to see if he needs to help. When he is clearly told to not help, JP is fly paper on his assignment, witness what he did to Saunders on that play where the Havard PG got the 4pt play, that was serious fly paper stuff JP put on Saunders, it may have been the best effort of the game by any player and will never be seen in stats nor much talked about and notice Saunders, a wing, not a PG or 2. It sure as heck wasn't JP that allowed that 4pt play to happen, it was the mismatch of meeks being slow to close out on a PG and Marcus having to force help late. JP & Theo, watch those 2 guys defend together next season, on the floor together they are serious defenders in the jackie manual mold. My point here is JP is a starter and if you start Jackson you have to plug JP in some position other than wing because Jackson can not defend 2s, we have got in to a bind consistently when Jackson has switched off on to 2s this season.

Roy was going more & more to Joel and when I think he was right there on the cusp of being either a starter or getting starting minutes when he hurt his groin, came back and then a game or 2 later missed again being sick, pretty much derailed him starting this season thou he is now getting starter level minutes and Roy has had him in at crunch time late in several games now. But the starting line up we have is IMO what we will see at this late point of the season yet most of Britt's minutes are now going to Joel and should.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Agree with all that Dave, Roy will doubtfully change his line up now. So long as Berry gets 20+ I'm good with that.

 

[UNC71-00]

Originally posted by mikeirbyusa:
Agree with all that Dave, Roy will doubtfully change his line up now. So long as Berry gets 20+ I'm good with that.

And he is in at crunch time.