Stats for the ACCCG: North Carolina vs. Clemson
- Thread starter Raising Heel
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Both offenses are proficient; their D is better than ours for sure, but we only give up 2 more points per game. It's the biggest cliche in football, but it's all about TURNOVERS. We can't have bad Marquise fumbling away the game and / or throwing red zone picks.
Three things concern me about this game:
1) Clemson's 3rd down conversion rate on defense (24%, #1 nationally)
2) Clemson's sack rate (9.7% of dropbacks, #2 nationally)
3) The difference in offensive/defensive plays per game; Clemson is +15.0 while UNC is -9.4.
Their defense is holding teams to 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. So was NC State until we busted them in the nuts for 9.1 yards per carry. Similar story with the passing offense...we're the best offense they've faced since Notre Dame. If we get "good Quise", limit turnovers, and get a few defensive stops we can make a game of it.
1) Clemson's 3rd down conversion rate on defense (24%, #1 nationally)
2) Clemson's sack rate (9.7% of dropbacks, #2 nationally)
3) The difference in offensive/defensive plays per game; Clemson is +15.0 while UNC is -9.4.
Their defense is holding teams to 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. So was NC State until we busted them in the nuts for 9.1 yards per carry. Similar story with the passing offense...we're the best offense they've faced since Notre Dame. If we get "good Quise", limit turnovers, and get a few defensive stops we can make a game of it.
#3 doesn't worry me so much. The Heels have been a quick strike team all year - and doing it with all kinds of weapons. They SHOULD have fewer offensive possessions per defensive possessions.
This game is simple. Our D will deside the outcome of this game if we don't turn it over. Clemson is good everywhere. Our D is just a bend but don't break and has to continue to hold true. Both offenses are about even. It's just our D will have to play out of there mind.
It worries me because it means the Clemson defense gets stops and puts their offense back on the field. We can't afford to repeatedly depend on our defense to bail us out. UNC's offense will need to sustain drives and/or score at a high rate. Basically, we need an offensive shootout.
I think turnovers will make this game for either side. Clemson has struggled with ball security recently, having 10 turnovers in their last three games (Syracuse, Wake, and South Carolina, none of which have more than 4 wins). We have had 6 turnovers in our past two games against Virginia Tech & NC State. I would argue we played tougher teams in those two games, both in heavily-charged road environments, but still, there has been some sloppy play for both teams coming down the stretch. Whatever team does a better job of holding onto the ball should win this game.
When it comes to possession, I agree that we can't afford to go three and out very often and win the game. If we are scoring quickly, that's one thing, but we really need to do our best at either sustaining drives to keep the ball out of their hands or if we have quick possessions, it's due to putting points on the board and not turnovers or punts.
When it comes to possession, I agree that we can't afford to go three and out very often and win the game. If we are scoring quickly, that's one thing, but we really need to do our best at either sustaining drives to keep the ball out of their hands or if we have quick possessions, it's due to putting points on the board and not turnovers or punts.
Something we are also going to have to do to win this game is score points (groundbreaking notion, I know). The games we have struggled in this year are the ones where we haven't broken 30. We are 2-1 when we don't hit 30 or more, but 9-0 when we do. Clemson has 3 wins when they didn't score 30, but the big thing to note is that they beat Notre Dame & FSU without breaking 30. The other win was against Louisville, who is the next best team in the Atlantic. They are going to want to slow the game down against us, it's how they've beaten the other "big" teams they've faced. If we come out with a good start and put points on the board early, we could be in a very nice position to win that game. I think if it turns into a defensive struggle, while our defense is greatly improved, that plays into Clemson's favor because they've won against the better teams on their schedule by slowing things down and winning a knock-down, drag-out kind of game. I don't think we are incapable of winning that way, Pitt and Virginia Tech come to mind as examples that we can, but I think we would have a better chance if we jump out on them early and put a lot of points on the board. Like I said, I'm sure this is a groundbreaking revelation, but a game that sees our score in the teens or low 20's doesn't bode well for us.
Well.... I like the fact we've been up against 2 Top 10 teams...and beat them. Unless mistaken, your best opponent/win is an 8-4 Pitt. I like our QB when the sh!t hits the fan....he doesn't panic. What I don't like is this is our 10th straight week playing. The last time CU-UNC played a truly significant game was 1981. We'll see who wins. This is what CFB is all about.
Unless it rains, we won't slow it down. We've played in enough monsoons in big games this year to last us for the next 10 years.
Gonna be a great game. These stats tell an interesting story.
How do you guys feel about your schedule? Some might say your stats are inflated because you haven't had anyone really challenge you (other than SCar, which I believe was a kind of fluke and tend to ignore it when looking at UNC).
Looking at CFBmatrix, your opponents' win percentage was only 41%, or 107th in the nation:
http://cfbmatrix.com/unofficial-playoff-committee-sos-ranks-week-13/
How do you guys feel about your schedule? Some might say your stats are inflated because you haven't had anyone really challenge you (other than SCar, which I believe was a kind of fluke and tend to ignore it when looking at UNC).
Looking at CFBmatrix, your opponents' win percentage was only 41%, or 107th in the nation:
http://cfbmatrix.com/unofficial-playoff-committee-sos-ranks-week-13/
Clemson fan here. This game is 100% about turnovers and special teams. If Clemson turns the ball over and has poor special teams play, its game over. If Clemson continues to turn the ball over or if they fail to cover kickoffs and punts well, UNC will win this game. If Clemson plays defense like they did against earlier in the year and they limit the return game/ turnovers, Clemson can win big. I dont see a scenario outside of injuries to Deshaun where UNC wins big. Should be a great game, with the winner being decided in the last half of the 4th quarter.
@Raising Heel great graphs, by the way.
@Raising Heel great graphs, by the way.
Clemson is undefeated when rushing for 200 and passing for 200 in the same game. Like 72-0-1. I think for unc to win, they have to stop one thing or the other. We have averaged over 500 yards of offense in the last 6 games. Our defense is tired but still ranked #9. Here's to a hard fought, injury free game. Safe travels to everyone traveling.
That number is a bit off. Our opponents' win percentage is actually 47.18%, or 45.00% if you exclude the FCS teams.
The point remains that we haven't exactly played murderers' row. But then again, we have absolutely drilled some of the teams on our schedule so wins and losses don't tell the whole story. The bottom line is that UNC is a very, very good team when everything is clicking but we haven't brought our A game consistently. Anything short of our best on Saturday and I expect to lose. And even our best effort may not be enough.
Saturday should be a lot of fun for Heels fans. We have everything to gain and very little to lose. Here's to an injury-free game for both teams. Win or lose I'll be rooting for the Tigers after Saturday.
There's going to be a huge pizza party over at Death Valley on Sunday, to celebrate the undefeated season. It would be nice to make that a bittersweet event.
Actually, Dabo has said the pizza party is for the undefeated regular season and going 12-0. There are actually 2 tentative start times for the party on Sunday (12 noon or 3:00 PM) depending upon whether we win or lose the game against your boys this Saturday night. Definitely not taking a win against your team for granted!
First, congratulations on a fantastic season. Your offense seems prolific and your defense seems to understand it's role. if clemson plays like it has the last three weeks, you guys will spoil our party. For all of the talk of your QB, I hope Clemson commits to stopping the run and making you throw.
I expect UNC to do the exact opposite. I expect the safeties to be deep and dare Clemson to run.
See you in Charlotte, safe travels.
I expect UNC to do the exact opposite. I expect the safeties to be deep and dare Clemson to run.
See you in Charlotte, safe travels.
Marquise was probably under personal pressure vs VT (since he had been tweeting self-blame for the sole loss of the season and since we could gain the coastal crown) , and vs NCSU since they talked crap and knocked him out of the game last yr. Being the underdog, i have a feeling he'll be less stressed in terms of self-pressure and have a good gm.
He might not be under personal pressure before the game, but he will be after facing real pressure from a very solid D-Line.
I just think it's fantastic that the ACC championship game will be a sell out and be the best game / most watched game on Saturday (Iowa / MSU could be good too). I live in Atlanta and for years have heard my friends of SEC schools laugh at our game and say their game was the only conference championship game that mattered. Their game this year is a joke and that happens when one division is so much weaker. Moving forward, it would be great to see Carolina / VT / the []_[] get really competitive and make our game like this consistently.
Haven't seen such a civil back and forth from two schools like this since, well, never. Very refreshing.
Fedora is my daddy! Just kidding, this game has me nervous as we've show a propensity to turn it over,kick coverage has been suspect and the D hasn't been exactly lights out lately. I went to that dump in Columbia and was dissapointed in the fumbles and big plays given up. I think both teams will make big bowl games and should count this season a success regardless of outcome.
What do have coming back and do you think the Heels can win the Coastal next year?
What do have coming back and do you think the Heels can win the Coastal next year?
We're still a reasonably young team. Check out our depth chart.
On offense the Heels lose QB Marquise Williams but return rising RS Junior Mitch Trubisky, who is a capable runner and a much better passer (for the season: 39/46, 539 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT). We also lose RG Landon Turner (Jim Parker award winner), WR Quinshad Davis (UNC career leader in receptions and TDs), TE/H-Back Kendrick Singleton, and backup RB Romar Morris. We've recruited well at all the offensive positions and IMO the departure of Turner will be the most significant. Our WR corps is deep and talented.
On defense, we lose DT Justin Thomason, backup DE Jessie Rogers, SLB Shakeel Rashad, MLB Jeff Schoettmer, and S Sam Smiley (actually out for the rest of the season). The biggest losses there are the linebackers. Again, just my opinion. The defensive line goes about 2-3 deep at each position but doesn't have any real impact players, so the losses there won't be significant. Something of a similar story at safety, where we can plug in Dominique Green who has started 20+ games over the last few seasons (Smiley is arguably better in pass coverage). At LB, true freshman Andre Smith has gotten considerable burn including a handful of starts but there are still some question marks about how we'll fill those spots next year.
In all, we're well positioned to field our most experienced team since Fedora's first season in 2012 which consisted of mostly Butch Davis recruits. Not being a homer, but I'll be shocked if we aren't picked to repeat as the pre-season Coastal favorite, especially if we can keep this coaching staff intact.
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Would love to face yall each year, and the only way to guarantee that is return trips to the championship. I think your division is gonna start getting a lot tougher with the VT and Miami hires, but I think that is for the benefit of everyone in the conference.
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