Stats for Week 8: Virginia at North Carolina
- Thread starter Raising Heel
- Start date
Some random musings:
* UNC's offense is 4th nationally in yards per play and 3rd in points per play (which doesn't appear above). Naturally they're first in the conference in both categories. More on this in a minute.
* UNC's defense is 32nd nationally in yards allowed per play, but interestingly, 15th nationally in points allowed per play. The defense has had trouble getting 3rd down stops, but they've been sneaky good at keeping teams from scoring after long drives (think of the 4th down red zone stops against South Carolina and Georgia Tech).
* UNC is 1st in the ACC and 5th nationally in points per game differential (+23.2).
* During his media comments today, Coach Fedora discussed advanced analytics and the stats in particular that determine wins/losses. I've mentioned correlation coefficients before. Simply stated, they are a numerical indication of how strongly two items are related to each other. The values range from +1 (strongly related, in the same direction) to -1 (strongly related in opposite directions). Values closer to 0 denote no relation. That said, here are the correlation coefficients between winning percentage and various stats for all FBS teams during the 2015 season so far, ranked:
0.86 offensive points per play
0.67 offensive points per game
0.55 offensive yards per play
0.54 turnover margin
0.48 offensive yards per game
0.35 offensive red zone percentage (TDs + FGs)
0.28 offensive red zone TD percentage
0.23 time of possession
0.02 penalties per game
-0.21 defensive red zone percentage
-0.32 defensive red zone TD percentage (TDs + FGs)
-0.55 defensive yards per game
-0.58 defensive yards per play
-0.68 defensive points per game
-0.69 defensive points per play
[The closer to the top or bottom of that list, the more important the metric is to winning.]
* Offensive points per play (0.86) is by far the strongest indicator of wins; the higher the number of points scored per play, the better the odds of winning. Defensive points per play (-0.69) is the next strongest indicator; the higher the number of points surrendered per play, the worse the odds of winning.
* It's also worth nothing from the above that penalties have virtually no relationship to winning percentage. In addition, while the time of possession number suggests that teams who have the ball longer have a better chance of winning, it's a relatively weak correlation.
* There's a huge difference (80 spots) between the strength of schedule averages for these two teams. UNC has played two FCS teams while Virginia has already played four FBS teams that have been ranked at some point during the season (UCLA, Notre Dame, Boise State, Pittsburgh).
* There are a couple things UVA does well. One is return punts, an area in which they lead the nation with an average of 26 yards per return (and 1 TD). The sample size is small, though, at only 6 punts. Also, remember that UNC has yet to allow a punt return this season. The Tar Heels rank 3rd nationally in punt return defense because two schools (Northwestern and UCLA) have actually held opponents to negative return yardage.
* The other thing UVA does reasonably well is defend the end zone. This certainly isn't last season's defense -- the Hoos rank dead last in the ACC in just about every defensive passing metric -- but when they have less field to defend they rise up. UVA ranks 3rd in the ACC and 20th nationally, with opponents only scoring TDs on about 46% of their red zone possessions.
* I told you I'd keep talking about penalties if we continued not sucking. Never mind the two ridiculous delay of game penalties against Wake -- the Heels are still in the top 30 nationally for fewest penalties per game and top 15 for penalty yards per game.
* UNC's offense is 4th nationally in yards per play and 3rd in points per play (which doesn't appear above). Naturally they're first in the conference in both categories. More on this in a minute.
* UNC's defense is 32nd nationally in yards allowed per play, but interestingly, 15th nationally in points allowed per play. The defense has had trouble getting 3rd down stops, but they've been sneaky good at keeping teams from scoring after long drives (think of the 4th down red zone stops against South Carolina and Georgia Tech).
* UNC is 1st in the ACC and 5th nationally in points per game differential (+23.2).
* During his media comments today, Coach Fedora discussed advanced analytics and the stats in particular that determine wins/losses. I've mentioned correlation coefficients before. Simply stated, they are a numerical indication of how strongly two items are related to each other. The values range from +1 (strongly related, in the same direction) to -1 (strongly related in opposite directions). Values closer to 0 denote no relation. That said, here are the correlation coefficients between winning percentage and various stats for all FBS teams during the 2015 season so far, ranked:
0.86 offensive points per play
0.67 offensive points per game
0.55 offensive yards per play
0.54 turnover margin
0.48 offensive yards per game
0.35 offensive red zone percentage (TDs + FGs)
0.28 offensive red zone TD percentage
0.23 time of possession
0.02 penalties per game
-0.21 defensive red zone percentage
-0.32 defensive red zone TD percentage (TDs + FGs)
-0.55 defensive yards per game
-0.58 defensive yards per play
-0.68 defensive points per game
-0.69 defensive points per play
[The closer to the top or bottom of that list, the more important the metric is to winning.]
* Offensive points per play (0.86) is by far the strongest indicator of wins; the higher the number of points scored per play, the better the odds of winning. Defensive points per play (-0.69) is the next strongest indicator; the higher the number of points surrendered per play, the worse the odds of winning.
* It's also worth nothing from the above that penalties have virtually no relationship to winning percentage. In addition, while the time of possession number suggests that teams who have the ball longer have a better chance of winning, it's a relatively weak correlation.
* There's a huge difference (80 spots) between the strength of schedule averages for these two teams. UNC has played two FCS teams while Virginia has already played four FBS teams that have been ranked at some point during the season (UCLA, Notre Dame, Boise State, Pittsburgh).
* There are a couple things UVA does well. One is return punts, an area in which they lead the nation with an average of 26 yards per return (and 1 TD). The sample size is small, though, at only 6 punts. Also, remember that UNC has yet to allow a punt return this season. The Tar Heels rank 3rd nationally in punt return defense because two schools (Northwestern and UCLA) have actually held opponents to negative return yardage.
* The other thing UVA does reasonably well is defend the end zone. This certainly isn't last season's defense -- the Hoos rank dead last in the ACC in just about every defensive passing metric -- but when they have less field to defend they rise up. UVA ranks 3rd in the ACC and 20th nationally, with opponents only scoring TDs on about 46% of their red zone possessions.
* I told you I'd keep talking about penalties if we continued not sucking. Never mind the two ridiculous delay of game penalties against Wake -- the Heels are still in the top 30 nationally for fewest penalties per game and top 15 for penalty yards per game.
The stats indicate that our offense should have an absolute field day against the BooHoos, Tenuta or no Tenuta.
I'd like to see this occur. Stats indicate we should be able to run AND throw at will. Get after it Seth....light 'em up.
I'd like to see this occur. Stats indicate we should be able to run AND throw at will. Get after it Seth....light 'em up.
Pump the brakes, young 'un. The stats look overwhelmingly in our favor, but you have to consider strength of schedule. UVA has played four quality FBS teams, which has hurt their numbers.
While this is true, did you watch any of their game against Boise? They got absolutely torched. And Boise isn't typical Boise this year.
All true, but UVA players will look at this game as their Super Bowl 2015 #1 (vs. VT is the #2). They may well come our and play their best all year. Beating us would go a long way toward saving London's job another year.
Boise is #16/#27 in scoring/total offense and #20/#5 in scoring/total defense. Just because they've lost 2 games doesn't mean they're a bad team. Their 8 turnovers against Utah State were a huge outlier.
objectivity =/= negativity
And besides, I think we're going to win comfortably.
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