The biggest risk to UNC, in my opinion

[pln2013]

Our lack of recruiting success would suggest we haven't been paying kids to go to UNC - not a guarantee, but decently compelling.

I do think there's a real risk that Nike/Jordan has been paying players small/medium sums while they're at UNC to keep them "loyal" if they eventually make the league and have a major profile.

For example, I could see them offering a few grand (even in the tens of thousands) to players like Theo and Coby just to keep them connected to Nike/Jordan.

Just a possibility to chew on.

 

[gary-7]

Our lack of recruiting success would suggest we haven't been paying kids to go to UNC - not a guarantee, but decently compelling.

I do think there's a real risk that Nike/Jordan has been paying players small/medium sums while they're at UNC to keep them "loyal" if they eventually make the league and have a major profile.

For example, I could see them offering a few grand (even in the tens of thousands) to players like Theo and Coby just to keep them connected to Nike/Jordan.

Just a possibility to chew on.

 

[Ned Cota]

I don't mean to be rude. I really like almost everything you post @pln2013 but can we lock this thread? This is pure conjecture and a potentially deep rabbit hole. There's enough real information out there right now for us all to chew on.

Especially given our own NCAA troubles do we really need to think up all the other ways we could hypothetically get effed?

 

[soap - new and improved]

NFS what a stupid post. PIN, you consistently disappoint.

 

[pln2013]

I don't mean to be rude. I really like almost everything you post @pln2013 but can we lock this thread? This is pure conjecture and a potentially deep rabbit hole. There's enough real information out there right now for us all to chew on.

Especially given our own NCAA troubles do we really need to think up all the other ways we could hypothetically get effed?

Your comment isn't rude (the posts bookending yours are, though...), and I won't take offense if the thread gets locked - but I believe it's a possibility worth acknowledging.

I think the strong feeling among UNC fans is that we're good. Everyone is confident that Roy is clean. I'm reasonably confident about that, too.

But this is just getting started, and we don't know how deep the rabbit hole goes. Every fan should consider how this scandal could impact their team. Otherwise they risk being blindsided. I don't want to be blindsided, and this is a way things could realistically turn south for us. There's plenty of schadenfreude here already; I think some risk assessment is appropriate.

If someone has compelling reason to believe this isn't a concern, I'd love to hear it.

 

[pln2013]

PIN, you consistently disappoint.

I pride myself on my consistency

 

[gary-7]

Not rude (the gif was, though...), and I won't take offense if the thread gets locked - but I believe it's a possibility worth acknowledging.

I think the strong feeling among UNC fans is that we're good - everyone is confident that Roy is clean. I'm reasonably confident about that, too. Every fan should consider how this scandal could impact their team, because it's probably only the beginning. Otherwise they risk being blindsided. I don't want to be blindsided, and this is a way things could realistically turn south for us.

"Realistically"? Alrighty then.
As for the GIF, if by "rude" you mean "spot on" for even starting this thread, then yeah.

 

[pln2013]

"Realistically"? Alrighty then.
As for the GIF, if by "rude" you mean "spot on" for even starting this thread, then yeah.

Can you explain why you think it's unrealistic?

You and others often talk about how dirty they whole dynamic is. What keeps the dirty money out of Chapel Hill? Roy doesn't control everything every player does.

 

[gary-7]

Can you explain why you think it's unrealistic?

What you need to do is explain how the hell it's "realistic".

No, y'know what?... never mind. This thread needs to die a quick merciful death. SMDH.

 

[pln2013]

What you need to do is explain how the hell it's "realistic".

Happy to!

For this possibility to be true and impactful, a few things have to be true:

1) Companies have to be willing to break the rules by paying players
Proven in spectacular fashion

2) Companies have to have incentive to pay players in the manner I described
By paying the player while he's in college (or while he's playing for an AAU team, even), you build a relationship with that player; most players fizzle, but some will be worth millions to a shoe brand; by putting as many "irons in the fire" as you can, you maximize your expected returns; the core assumption here is that a ~$5k payment will meaningfully shift your odds of signing a player, which I think is reasonable

3) Players have to be willing to accept compensation against NCAA rules and Roy's wishes
We generally recruit high-character kids, but they're not a completely different breed from those at other schools; if the kids at other schools accept money, there's a decent chance some of our might; plus, accepting money is basically a victimless crime and can seriously help your family; PJ Hairston demonstrated that at least one player we've had would violate Roy's wishes

4) Players have to be able to get away with it (or believe they will get away with it)
Basically just requires them / their families to be discreet; nothing really different from kids at Arizona/UK/KU/Duke accepting money and keeping it from raising too many eyebrows, and the money I'm concerned about would be smaller amounts anyway

5) There have to be consequences for us if it's true
If we had a player who took money on the team this year, bye bye championship

What do you consider to be the weak link in that chain? I'm not arguing that anything sketchy happened. I'm just saying there's a realistic scenario in which something did.

If you object to the suggestion that one of our players might've done something wrong, I get that. But if you think there's not a realistic scenario in which they did, I'd like to know why.

 

[Steat]

As the great John Wooden said..." Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

 

[pln2013]

As the great John Wooden said..." Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

I'm happy to be proven a fool. But if I'm a fool, I'd love for someone to explain in what way I'm foolish.

 

[Steat]

I'm happy to be proven a fool. But if I'm a fool, I'd love for someone to explain in what way I'm foolish.

If you are a true UNC fan and don't realize what you are doing I can't help you. Just stop it. The more you talk the worst it gets.

 

[tarheel0910]

Our lack of recruiting success would suggest we haven't been paying kids to go to UNC - not a guarantee, but decently compelling.

I do think there's a real risk that Nike/Jordan has been paying players small/medium sums while they're at UNC to keep them "loyal" if they eventually make the league and have a major profile.

For example, I could see them offering a few grand (even in the tens of thousands) to players like Theo and Coby just to keep them connected to Nike/Jordan.

Just a possibility to chew on.

I think our connection to Jordan might be a positive for us. Jordan brand has more revenue than most shoe companies. It's bringing in billions for Nike. Would Nike risk pissing off Jordan and losing him as an endorser? I'm more worried about someone naming us even if we're not involved just to get out of jail.

 

[pln2013]

If you are a true UNC fan and don't realize what you are doing I can't help you. Just stop it. The more you talk the worst it gets.

As a fool, I don't realize what I'm doing. Perhaps I'm indeed beyond help.

 

[imajericho]

This is one of the worst posts I have seen on this board ever.

Why in the world would you fabricate up in your mind a scenario like that when there isn't a single ounce of anything even pointing that way? And, why the **** would someone pay someone to stay when if they are staying they are likely doing so because they are not a top draft pick?

This thread is just astronomically stupid.

 

[pln2013]

This is one of the worst posts I have seen on this board ever.

Is there a trophy for that?

Why in the world would you fabricate up in your mind a scenario like that when there isn't a single ounce of anything even pointing that way?

Because what could be the biggest scandal in college sports history is starting to develop, and if UNC gets caught up in it, I'd rather not be blindsided.

And, why the **** would someone pay someone to stay when if they are staying they are likely doing so because they are not a top draft pick?

Not paying them to stay. That would indeed be counterproductive.

Just keeping them in your network as long as they have the potential to be valuable.

Suppose a shoe deal is worth $10M to the company, 1 in 20 players of a certain caliber end up worth offering a deal to, and you can shift your probability of ultimately signing them by 5% by paying them while they're in college. That payment is worth, on average, $25k per player. If you think there's a negligible risk of being caught, it's absolutely worth paying $10k to each player of that caliber. It's an advertising expense.

Adidas didn't pay Bowen $100k just to play at an Adidas school. Part of it was maximizing their chance of signing him to a shoe deal if he became a star. That second factor would still be in play even if the shoe company didn't influence the college decision.

This thread is just astronomically stupid.

I've always tried to shoot for the stars.

 

[superstar57]

Can you explain why you think it's unrealistic?

You and others often talk about how dirty they whole dynamic is. What keeps the dirty money out of Chapel Hill? Roy doesn't control everything every player does.

Funny thing about this thread is that I was going to say something similar in another thread, but realized what you are seeing for yourself that it doesn't go over well. Lol

I actually think us being under investigation for so long helps us because we would have to be stupid to even try anything while we still have some unresolved issues.

 

[pln2013]

Funny thing about this thread is that I was going to say something similar in another thread, but realized what you are seeing for yourself that it doesn't go over well. Lol

I don't mind the responses too much, other than the fact that nobody wants to explain why they think I'm wrong. I already know I'm an idiot, so those comments aren't helpful.

I actually think us being under investigation for so long helps us because we would have to be stupid to even try anything while we still have some unresolved issues.

That's part of why the possibility I raised is the one that concerns me. It wouldn't be "us" doing anything. It just takes one Nike employee and one player. We wouldn't be at fault, but the banner would still come down.

 

[superstar57]

I come from the angle that college basketball is about to take lots and lots of hits to multiple programs you know, and I know it.

 

[Archer2]

I come from the angle that college basketball is about to take lots and lots of hits to multiple programs you know, and I know it.

That's the point, we all do know that. As dirty as the college sports landscape is, there's a chance that any top school in the country could get caught up in the dirty business. Dookies are worried, Kaintuckians are worried, Kansans are worried. We're all a little concerned because all it takes is one or two rogues to make it happen.

So you and everyone else shouldn't be "blindsided" if we or any other programs are named. Do I think it's likely? No. But I'm not naive and neither are most of our fans.

After all the negative things we've had to read about our school over the last five years, it's disappointing to see a UNC fan start a thread of this nature, based on pure speculation. If it happens we'll be forced to deal with it. Until then, I think most would prefer to not waste energy on negative speculation. There's beaucoup de real negative stuff going on in sports, and in the world, without dreaming up more.

Does that make sense?

 

[thaUNCshow]

You guys coming at this guys throat for voicing an obvious concern are pathetic. Me personally, I don't think we have anything to worry about, we've been getting watched like hawks by the NCAA for the last 6 years and if there was anything going on they wouldve found it already. And if anything was going on, Roy certainly would have no idea of it, as theres no doubt in my mind he would lose every game before he ever tarnishes the program and especially Dean's legacy. The same goes for MJ, and I could never see him doing something that would essentially piss on Dean's grave.

That being said, a coach can only do so much. our program being under the watchful eye of the NCAA didnt prevent the PJ and McDonald fiasco. That bug couldve ended up growing way more legs if the cops never wouldve pulled PJ over.

I have a degree from Arizona. My roommate worked in the athletic office when we were in school a few years ago, an old AAU teammate of mine is still on the team, and another kid from my high school is a manager. All 3 had zero idea of what Book was doing and are completely blown away by the news. It just goes to show you that even people directly in the program can be completely oblivious to what goes on and how good players, families and coaches can be at covering it up and keeping it secret. I mean the only reason this even was uncovered was because there was an undercover FBI agent at the scene. Now do I think Sean Miller is innocent and had no part in this? Absolutely not. I fear he will get the boot when the smoke clears, but my point is that this stuff goes on everywhere, and even people as close to it as possible can still be oblivious if these people cover their tracks well enough.

Again, I think the academic investigation actually will help exonerate us from this particular mess, but thinking that this isnt a huge concern is being naive

 

[Sk1310]

Harrison Barnes shoe deal is with Addidas...

 

[ajklum]

I could be totally wrong, but I think when the kimono opens up the NCAA is gonna see that this is TOO big. There is no putting the Genie back in the bottle. I think the teams already mentioned will be hammer mercilessly, and all others involved (probably a lot more then we think) will get some behind door meetings with those teams. Then the people already indicted will get absolutely vilified and sentenced to the max to make a statement. Then the AAU culture will be brought under NCAA control and face deep sanctions. Future transgressions will be met with HARSH penalties. AAU Coaches will have to coach without taking the shoe money. Young kids that cant afford to travel to the big tournaments will not be able to play. Harsh but not different than when I was growing up in the late 80's. College coaches came to High School games and watched kids play.

The downside to this is UNC will be painted with the same brush as teams that actually did something (whether we did something or not) because all the haters will just assume Big School=Cheater but didnt get caught. Especially in light of the crappy press the media give us over some AFAM classes.

College Basketball is too big to fail, so when they discover the magnitude of the corruption, they are gonna put a gag order in place and non-disclosure agreements will be signed and hands getting slapped will be the order of the day. IMHO of course, but just as viable as what PLN threw out there.

 

[dadika13]

I actually think it's a fair question to ask given the past 48 hours. Keeping our heads in the sand saying "not us, not us, not us" is one way to deal with it, and PLN's questions are another way.

I just see it as two ways of looking at a scenario.

That said, I tend to side with everything that says we're clean because it grossly outweighs anything suggesting we are dirty (practically nothing).

 

[keysersosay#1]

This fellow's "conjecture" and hypothetical is interesting.

Do I think Carolina was/is involved here?? No and I base that on Roy and also my gut The men we have involved are all first rate people...

my instinct here is the same as it is re the NCAA We will get hammered shortly and then go to court where, like Bilas, I feel we will whip their ass...their case is quite weak


Not gonna bury my head in the sand///// been around too long for that

I also feel like the doochies and the kittycats have a LOT more to worry about than we do

 

[GlennT]

I believe that Roy is a good judge of character and that he also keeps his ear to the ground on these matters. While that is not a one hundred percent guarantee, he does get very cautious when any hint of impropriety shows up. Will Grave, MacDonald, Hairston come to mind concerning players that were on the roster. There is no telling how many he has backed off on because he felt there could be problems of one kind or another.

We don't have to look for possibilities ourselves anyway. There are plenty of others doing that for us. Several commentators are already talking about the Chris Hawkins connection to the UNC football fiasco a few years ago, as if that is relevant to the current affair, but they plan to keep looking into it, if I understood the commentator on WRAL correctly.

Glenn

 

[Tom79]

We are in the "follow the money" period of the situation.
We are not an Adidas apparel University.
We do not have a strong history of being a OAD factory.
Not sure on our AAU connections. See point 2 above.
Our coaching staff have performed their due diligence on every single kid that has played at UNC or been recruited by UNC.
UNC or staff, IMO, will not be named in this FBI investigation.

 

[Ned Cota]

Do you guys think we might have a serial killer on the roster? What if we did? And with the FBI snooping around right now they would definitely find him wouldn't they? What would they do to the program? Do you think it'd be worse than the NCAA did to Penn State? Wow guys we might be really screwed.

 

[DSouthr]

I'm happy to be proven a fool. But if I'm a fool, I'd love for someone to explain in what way I'm foolish.

The base line premise of this entire thing is that players were paid to commit to certain schools, not to stay at schools. Shoe companies are paying out the money for the player to do a future endorsement deal with their brand, agents pay so the kid will sign with them when they leave the college game. Common sense dictates those paying out want return on their investment sooner rather than later. Paying them to stay in college longer than needed delays their return and is exactly why these kids were being funneled to programs that move them in and back out as soon as possible and that just is not Roy nor UNC.

Your opening post on this reads as if a NC State fan was working hard to figure out how to suggest UNC is in some way involved where as of now not a single hint of the taint from this is around us. Just look at all the big time players Roy has gone after over the last several years, now as HUGE a program as UNC is, don't ya think that if Roy would play this game that he would have got a good number of those big time 5star kids, those 5 star kids is who is under the microscope as taking money and being funneled. But it has been whiff after whiff with UNC Fans getting really upset with Roy for missing on so many great talents.

So what did we get, well we got the home schooled kid, we got the undersized PG, we got the wing that couldn't shoot, guys that were going to be in the college game for a while, no need to pay them to stay cause where would they be going anyway, they are not the big fish that become lotto picks the agents and the shoe companies beg for, fight over, and pay big for.

 

[tarheel0910]

We are not an Adidas apparel University.

It's been confirmed that Nike is under investigation as well. And since Auburn is an UA school, I'd be willing to bet that they are/will be under investigation too.

 

[Tom79]

Yep, I know 0910, can'o'worms is open. I maintain my position on UNC as Dave states just above. Not sure if they are sniifing around Jordan Brand and Nike or only Nike.

 

[Green C14]

I want every cheating SOB involved in this to be caught and tied naked to a fire ant hill. If UNC is involved then I want them slathered in honey and then tied to the ant hill but I don't think that will happen. Until evidence to the contrary I have complete and total confidence in Roy Williams and his staff to have done things the right way......the Carolina Way.
This thread is troll bait and should be locked ASAP.

 

[midline]

Hopefully, UNC is one of the few big time schools that this doesn't touch. The lack of being able to land any of the big time one and done's hopefully signals that UNC wasn't getting into the bidding wars. And with the academic scandal bringing so much attention to the program one would figure that all precautions have been taken to walk the chalk line pretty close the last few years. But the Nike connection could be troubling just by association. If Adidas was throwing around big money, you know that Nike and Under Armor were also. Who knows what may have happened behind the scenes that nobody at UNC ever knew about? That is the only thing that worries me.

 

[RoseHeel]

After 2 days, all those years of losing close recruiting battles now look like a blessing in disguise. Remember how we "haven't won a recruiting battle in years" and "the only guys who committed to us committed early"? Funny how life works sometimes.

Yep, I know 0910, can'o'worms is open. I maintain my position on UNC as Dave states just above. Not sure if they are sniifing around Jordan Brand and Nike or only Nike.

A Tweet posted yesterday said that Nike's EYBL Grassroot's Division was subpoena'd. But if they're doing a thorough investigation, I'd imagine any parts that could be involved will get some eyeballs.

 

[LTDukeFan]

Our lack of recruiting success would suggest we haven't been paying kids to go to UNC - not a guarantee, but decently compelling.

I do think there's a real risk that Nike/Jordan has been paying players small/medium sums while they're at UNC to keep them "loyal" if they eventually make the league and have a major profile.

For example, I could see them offering a few grand (even in the tens of thousands) to players like Theo and Coby just to keep them connected to Nike/Jordan.

Just a possibility to chew on.

You do realize the source for the investigation is Marty Blazer, right? He's the agent that was convicted for funneling money to UNC football players back in 2010.

I think he helped in the investigation as a part of plea bargaining.

Wait?! You guys knew this already, my bad.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

As the great John Wooden said..." Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

That quote doesn't belong to John Wooden lol. Try again.

 

[Tom79]

But 'ol John did have a very kind benefactor funneling $$ to kids for years.

 

[DSouthr]

You do realize the source for the investigation is Marty Blazer, right? He's the agent that was convicted for funneling money to UNC football players back in 2010.

I think he helped in the investigation as a part of plea bargaining.

Wait?! You guys knew this already, my bad.

Look, many of us, myself absolutely included, saw the bloom fall off the Butch Davis Rose as soon as he hired John Blake, we cringed when that happened and hoped for the best. When the shait hit the fan those of us taking that position knew, thanks a ton Butch for bringing black Santa in to our world, we needed that like a root canal!

It would be tantamount to UNC and Roy bringing Jeff Capel or Kelvin Sampson in as an assistant coach, guys already busted and dismissed for skirting NCAA rules being welcome with open arms because all they care about is winning no matter what has to happen in the shadows of darkened rooms.

WAIT, You did know Capel had a little issue with the NCAA didn't ya, my bad.

 

[LTDukeFan]

Look, many of us, myself absolutely included, saw the bloom fall off the Butch Davis Rose as soon as he hired John Blake, we cringed when that happened and hoped for the best. When the shait hit the fan those of us taking that position knew, thanks a ton Butch for bringing black Santa in to our world, we needed that like a root canal!

It would be tantamount to UNC and Roy bringing Jeff Capel or Kelvin Sampson in as an assistant coach, guys already busted and dismissed for skirting NCAA rules being welcome with open arms because all they care about is winning no matter what has to happen in the shadows of darkened rooms.

WAIT, You did know Capel had a little issue with the NCAA didn't ya, my bad.

No worries @DSouthr -- at the end of the day, I think there will be plenty of fodder for just about everyone.