The CFP parameters

[UNCGridironFanatic]

As I understand it, the big issues are:

1- record and quality of Ws and quality of Ls
2- SOS
3- Game Control
4- "eye test"

Under that set of parameters, how can UNC NOT be in their Top 10?

1- SCar is an SEC team who has lost to @ LSU, Fla., @ Tenn, @ Mizzou, @Tex A&M. Bad loss, yes, but not as bad as others ahead of us. We've beaten conf. opposition that was 6-1 (ranked), 6-2, and 6-3 when we played, and annihilated them 151-71, aggregate. We also beat a 5 W Illini team far worse than Top 5s Iowa and Ohio St. did. Check.

2- SOS is in 65-70 range, so there 60-65 teams w/ a worse SOS than UNC. We are avg. here.

3- We are the national champs of Game Control. Who has more thoroughly whipped more teams than us? 6 Ws by 30+ points, and only 1 closer than 13 pt. margin.

4- tell me who has been more impressive for 2 months. We've won offensive shootouts, held teams to 13-14 points when the O wasn't cooking, and skulldrug a bunch of teams to an very unexpected degree.

Lots of work left yet?? Sure. But we are one of the best 10 teams out there, flaws and all.

 

[SeaHawk98]

It is like the basketball committee, obvious bias. You take Ohio State, Florida or someone else and put in the same credentials as UNC has right now, they would be top 4. Now, UNC is not a top 4 team right now, still got some work to do. However, if they win out, beat Clemson, they should be in the playoffs, no question about that. But they will not. The system is rigged.

 

[topdecktiger]

If you are taking about being in the playoffs, to this point the wins are what matters. As of the last poll, Clemson, Ohio St, Iowa, Baylor, and Oklahoma St are undefeated, so they would be ranked higher due to record. Regarding some of the one loss teams, that's where the quality wins come into play. Alabama beat Wisconsin and LSU, both ranked in the poll. Utah had the win over Michigan, Stanford had the win over UCLA, Florida had the win over Ole Miss, Michigan St had the win over Michigan. To this point, that's what making the difference. If you are talking about being ranked behind Navy and Mississippi St, that's a different argument.

 

[WoadBlue]

As I understand it, the big issues are:

1- record and quality of Ws and quality of Ls
2- SOS
3- Game Control
4- "eye test"

Under that set of parameters, how can UNC NOT be in their Top 10?

1- SCar is an SEC team who has lost to @ LSU, Fla., @ Tenn, @ Mizzou, @Tex A&M. Bad loss, yes, but not as bad as others ahead of us. We've beaten conf. opposition that was 6-1 (ranked), 6-2, and 6-3 when we played, and annihilated them 151-71, aggregate. We also beat a 5 W Illini team far worse than Top 5s Iowa and Ohio St. did. Check.

2- SOS is in 65-70 range, so there 60-65 teams w/ a worse SOS than UNC. We are avg. here.

3- We are the national champs of Game Control. Who has more thoroughly whipped more teams than us? 6 Ws by 30+ points, and only 1 closer than 13 pt. margin.

4- tell me who has been more impressive for 2 months. We've won offensive shootouts, held teams to 13-14 points when the O wasn't cooking, and skulldrug a bunch of teams to an very unexpected degree.

Lots of work left yet?? Sure. But we are one of the best 10 teams out there, flaws and all.

Here is the reality regarding 'eye test'. Because of BIG money, any Big Ten or SEC team that has a good record passes. Because of least money, an ACC team must look much better than a similar BT or SEC team to pass.

 

[6666Heel]

If you are taking about being in the playoffs, to this point the wins are what matters. As of the last poll, Clemson, Ohio St, Iowa, Baylor, and Oklahoma St are undefeated, so they would be ranked higher due to record. Regarding some of the one loss teams, that's where the quality wins come into play. Alabama beat Wisconsin and LSU, both ranked in the poll. Utah had the win over Michigan, Stanford had the win over UCLA, Florida had the win over Ole Miss, Michigan St had the win over Michigan. To this point, that's what making the difference. If you are talking about being ranked behind Navy and Mississippi St, that's a different argument.

Well SINCE the last poll, Baylor lost to Okla U and is no longer undefeated (and dropped in the subsequent media and coaches' polls), and Stanford lost to Oregon, and no Pac12 team now has less than 2 losses. AND LSU lost big-time to Arkansas - with both Stanford and LSU dropping significantly in the media polls. AND FL has had IMPRESSIVE wins over both the Commodores and Gamecocks in the last 2 wks (2 pts and 4 pts respectively. Meanwhile the mighty Buckeyes handed the Indiana Hoosiers (4-5 record prior to game) a resounding defeat in 2 overtimes and OK St, another of the undefeated 5 (which also includes U Hoo, which is ranked below the Heels) after trailing most of the game finally took the lead (and the 4 pt win) at about 2.5 minutes left in the game with Iowa St. TCU barely held on to their 1 loss status by defeating the mighty Jayhawks 22-17, IIRC. Hell, even Clem's son really struggled to defeat Atlantic Div also ran Syracuse in a surprisingly close game (37-27) in the Carrier Dome.

I know I'm extremely biased, but there's no question that right now, the Heels are among the most exciting and effective teams in the NCAA - USCjr 4 pt loss and "weak"(?) schedule notwithstanding! Sure - we still have 2 very difficult/emotional/grudge match road games ahead of us, and they are MUST WINS for any substantive post season playoff/bowl seeding and there's a very real chance of losing both. An ACCCG appearance is still very much in doubt, as a result. BUT as of right now, this group of Tar Heels is on a roll and looking forward to really having a great, not just a good football season. Assuming they continue their level of play or continue to upgrade it through the next 2 (3?) games, I think the CFB Selection Committee will have some major difficulty in continuing their "scripted" response to questions regarding their ranking of the Heels far below the national polls.

 

[ethanga62890]

i think we'll come in where the ap and coaches have us. right around the 12 spot. Beat Clemson and the rest of the teams losses will sort themselves out and we'll be in the playoffs. For now just beat VT and their senile coach.

 

[topdecktiger]

Well SINCE the last poll, Baylor lost to Okla U and is no longer undefeated (and dropped in the subsequent media and coaches' polls), and Stanford lost to Oregon, and no Pac12 team now has less than 2 losses. AND LSU lost big-time to Arkansas - with both Stanford and LSU dropping significantly in the media polls. AND FL has had IMPRESSIVE wins over both the Commodores and Gamecocks in the last 2 wks (2 pts and 4 pts respectively. Meanwhile the mighty Buckeyes handed the Indiana Hoosiers (4-5 record prior to game) a resounding defeat in 2 overtimes and OK St, another of the undefeated 5 (which also includes U Hoo, which is ranked below the Heels) after trailing most of the game finally took the lead (and the 4 pt win) at about 2.5 minutes left in the game with Iowa St. TCU barely held on to their 1 loss status by defeating the mighty Jayhawks 22-17, IIRC. Hell, even Clem's son really struggled to defeat Atlantic Div also ran Syracuse in a surprisingly close game (37-27) in the Carrier Dome.

I know I'm extremely biased, but there's no question that right now, the Heels are among the most exciting and effective teams in the NCAA - USCjr 4 pt loss and "weak"(?) schedule notwithstanding! Sure - we still have 2 very difficult/emotional/grudge match road games ahead of us, and they are MUST WINS for any substantive post season playoff/bowl seeding and there's a very real chance of losing both. An ACCCG appearance is still very much in doubt, as a result. BUT as of right now, this group of Tar Heels is on a roll and looking forward to really having a great, not just a good football season. Assuming they continue their level of play or continue to upgrade it through the next 2 (3?) games, I think the CFB Selection Committee will have some major difficulty in continuing their "scripted" response to questions regarding their ranking of the Heels far below the national polls.

Since the last poll a lot of stuff happened, and it will most likely be reflected in the next poll. Even so, the quality wins are going to play somewhat of a factor. I'm not making an argument for or against North Carolina. What I'm saying is this idea of committee bias that some other posters mentioned isn't really true, because you do have to take into account the quality win factor at this point in the season. As the season ends up, then the quality win factor will sort of level out, and it will be more of a comparison between individual teams.

 

[notashelbyfan]

We have no shot with a loss, if we was undefeated we would be on the outside looking in.

With ND having a loss and as the talking heads say in the driver seat if they win out over some of the other teams you are always playing with a stacked deck if your not ND OHio or Bama!

I want it to happen so bad but our chances went out the window in the first game of the season.

 

[heelmanwilm]

We havent beaten ANYONE ranked. If i were an objective observer i couldnt justify ranking us higher than around 12. Now if we hang 50 on va tech that would change.

 

[6666Heel]

Well, somewhere I read or heard that this so-called unbiased committee would also consider factors other than wins/losses and conference championships, particularly in evaluating the "quality of win" - factors including home vs away wins, weather, rivalry game, injuries to key players at the time, ability to "control the game", plus other factors such as emotional pressure on a team in a game situation, and "look of a team". And obviously, (if last year's picks are any guide) early losses are less damaging to a team's chances than Late season losses. Given those criteria, seems that UNC legitimately SHOULD be rising significantly, at least to more closely approximate the ratings assigned by both the medial AND the coaches poll..

 

[UNCGridironFanatic]

Important to note: Pitt not being ranked is primarily b/c we BEAT them. Not sure how we get stiffed for not beating a ranked team when we're the cause of their lack of ranking.

 

[BeezerHeel]

Since the last poll a lot of stuff happened, and it will most likely be reflected in the next poll. Even so, the quality wins are going to play somewhat of a factor. I'm not making an argument for or against North Carolina. What I'm saying is this idea of committee bias that some other posters mentioned isn't really true, because you do have to take into account the quality win factor at this point in the season. As the season ends up, then the quality win factor will sort of level out, and it will be more of a comparison between individual teams.

your advice is sound, but there are still some schools getting pub without any of the significant wins you talk about. ohio state and Michigan. By your rationale, Okie State should be ahead of ohio state because they actually have a signature win (Baylor) and the *ucknuts have none. And, yes, both schools have had a scare although Okie State's was more real than ohio state's. No one better call N'Western a 'quality' win without calling Pitt or Dook a quality win. Michigan, with two losses, doesn't deserve to be inside the top 15, but, hey, their name is Michigan.

As it stands TODAY the Heels should be right around 12 if I were to guess, but prolly are more deserving of 9 or 10. No matter. Keep winning, keep moving up. Gawd, please keep winning!

 

[BeezerHeel]

We havent beaten ANYONE ranked. If i were an objective observer i couldnt justify ranking us higher than around 12. Now if we hang 50 on va tech that would change.

And there's no reason we can't hang 50 on VPI in Blacksburg. I honestly do not think this team has "choke" in them. At the end of the day, last Beamer game or not in Lane, this Tech team is nothing better than average. We aren't. Argue (anyone; not just our fan base) about where we should be ranked, but we aren't average. Not this year, baby! We are a good football team.

 

[WoadBlue]

Important to note: Pitt not being ranked is primarily b/c we BEAT them. Not sure how we get stiffed for not beating a ranked team when we're the cause of their lack of ranking.

TRUE!

Pitt's 3 losses are to: an undefeated team and 2 teams with 1 loss. Any SEC or BT team with 3 such losses would be ranked.

 

[randman1]

We keep winning decisively and we're in. Simple as that. We will have made the case our one loss was a fluke due to unforced errors. We outplayed them and blew it in the season opener and have won out since becoming more and more dominant.

But that's what it will take. Beat Tech. Beat State, and beat Clemson. That's the road ahead of us. Not an easy road but we can do it. Right now with the way we're playing, perhaps we should even be favored to do it slightly.

Just comes down to one game at a time, keep getting better, play with poise and hopefully no serious injuries.

Many of the other higher ranked teams have to play one another and other teams that won't be an easy out. Florida State, for example, may well beat Florida. Bet Stanford beats Notre Dame. Undefeated Iowa has to face a hungry Nebraska team looking to be a spoiler.

Ohio State has to play Michigan and Michigan State and Ohio State hasn't looked that great lately, and if they win, well Mich and Mich State will have another loss.

Even Bama isn't a given if Florida manages to beat them for the SEC championship. Lots of games. I expect some upsets. Just hope it's not us getting upset.

Lastly if we dominate Tech and State like we did Miami and Duke, who would be favored us or Clemson? It'd be interesting to see what the betting money thinks.

 

[heelmanwilm]

If we hang 50 on va tech and state my guess is the line would be close to even. Maybe us favored as the betting public looks at our scores and pushes the line betting on us.

 

[Raising Heel]

** clears throat, does best Jim Mora impression **

What’s that? Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game.