"North Carolina’s Roy Williams has given his team the biggest coaching bump for the NCAA Tournament. Since 2002, his UNC teams have performed 3.84 points better than The Power Rank’s pre-tourney numbers, by far the most. Over a sample of 51 games, the t-test implies a 99% confidence that Williams’ teams outperform expectation."
http://thepowerrank.com/2016/03/15/...ament-how-to-use-it-for-picking-your-bracket/
Roy Williams
I was surprised to learn that North Carolina’s Roy Williams has given his team the biggest coaching bump for the tourney.
Since 2002, his North Carolina teams have performed 3.84 points better than The Power Rank’s pre-tourney numbers, by far the most. Over a sample of 51 games, the t-test implies a 99% confidence that Williams’ teams outperform expectation.
Williams has also outperformed the markets by 1.71 points. This implies that the markets have made an adjustment for his coaching but not quite enough.
Roy Williams isn’t known as a tournament coach. He’s a great recruiter that employs an up tempo style with great athletes.
Of course, this study is based on a limited sample size. Williams also coached Kansas before his tenure at North Carolina and disappointed in many tournaments. The FiveThirtyEight study with data back until 1985 doesn’t have Williams near the top.
If I could perform this study with more data, we might get different results for Williams. And this leads me to bracket advice based on this research.
Win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament
http://thepowerrank.com/2016/03/15/win-probabilities-for-the-2016-ncaa-tournament/
1. Kansas, 18.4%.
2. North Carolina, 16.9%.
3. Virginia, 14.3%.
4. Michigan State, 10.2%.
5. Villanova, 8.9%.
6. Oklahoma, 8.7%.
7. West Virginia, 4.2%.
8. Oregon, 2.7%.
9. Kentucky, 2.6%.
10. Duke, 1.7%.
11. Miami (FL), 1.5%.
12. Xavier, 1.4%.
http://thepowerrank.com/2016/03/15/...ament-how-to-use-it-for-picking-your-bracket/
Roy Williams
I was surprised to learn that North Carolina’s Roy Williams has given his team the biggest coaching bump for the tourney.
Since 2002, his North Carolina teams have performed 3.84 points better than The Power Rank’s pre-tourney numbers, by far the most. Over a sample of 51 games, the t-test implies a 99% confidence that Williams’ teams outperform expectation.
Williams has also outperformed the markets by 1.71 points. This implies that the markets have made an adjustment for his coaching but not quite enough.
Roy Williams isn’t known as a tournament coach. He’s a great recruiter that employs an up tempo style with great athletes.
Of course, this study is based on a limited sample size. Williams also coached Kansas before his tenure at North Carolina and disappointed in many tournaments. The FiveThirtyEight study with data back until 1985 doesn’t have Williams near the top.
If I could perform this study with more data, we might get different results for Williams. And this leads me to bracket advice based on this research.
Win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament
http://thepowerrank.com/2016/03/15/win-probabilities-for-the-2016-ncaa-tournament/
1. Kansas, 18.4%.
2. North Carolina, 16.9%.
3. Virginia, 14.3%.
4. Michigan State, 10.2%.
5. Villanova, 8.9%.
6. Oklahoma, 8.7%.
7. West Virginia, 4.2%.
8. Oregon, 2.7%.
9. Kentucky, 2.6%.
10. Duke, 1.7%.
11. Miami (FL), 1.5%.
12. Xavier, 1.4%.
