I love the articles and much of the discussion here. In particular David Sink's article and Jimmy Naismith's posts are of interest to me.
Years ago a virologist basketball junkie asked me if there was such a thing as a "hot hand". I said, "Of course." And he handed me this article:
www.sciencedirect.com
The third author is Amos Tversky the better known scholar of the pair Tversky and Kahneman (Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics; Tversky didn't. Why? He was dead by then. Ya can't get the Nobel Prize if you are dead). A cottage industry has developed around the science of the "hot hand". There have been papers since then (way beyond my math) that purport to show there is a "hot hand" (ranging from 1 to 8% increase) over the mean, which could put Grill at a 35% or 43% shooter (using last year's stats) or 17% to 24% using the games this year. Nothing out there would predict 7-11 for him.
Here is a good article on the history:
www.thecut.com
It all raises the question of what does one do with a player like Grill during a game. The "obvious" answer is - as Sisk says - he is a "no catch" player. Or was UNC's scouting report ONLY looking at the 16% shooting this year (which would be a mistake as there really wasn't enough data to use that number)?
The lead author of the article once said something like "I've had more arguments about this subject than any other. I've won every argument and convinced no one." But a thought experiment is worthwhile. Say John Black (34% last year and this) is 4-4 from three and Jim Davis is 0-8 (career 43.5 3 point shooter) (exaggerating to make a point) and you need a three point shot to tie with a few seconds left. Assuming that both are healthy, who do you give the ball to for that shot? The hot hand (for most fans) says give it to Black. Statistics says give it to Davis. Which is right.
My math skills ain't gonna solve it, but it is a fun issue that does have relevance to playing the game.
Years ago a virologist basketball junkie asked me if there was such a thing as a "hot hand". I said, "Of course." And he handed me this article:
The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences
We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball play…
The third author is Amos Tversky the better known scholar of the pair Tversky and Kahneman (Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics; Tversky didn't. Why? He was dead by then. Ya can't get the Nobel Prize if you are dead). A cottage industry has developed around the science of the "hot hand". There have been papers since then (way beyond my math) that purport to show there is a "hot hand" (ranging from 1 to 8% increase) over the mean, which could put Grill at a 35% or 43% shooter (using last year's stats) or 17% to 24% using the games this year. Nothing out there would predict 7-11 for him.
Here is a good article on the history:
How Researchers Discovered the Basketball ‘Hot Hand’
An accidental math discovery overturned the “truth” about the hot hand.
www.thecut.com
It all raises the question of what does one do with a player like Grill during a game. The "obvious" answer is - as Sisk says - he is a "no catch" player. Or was UNC's scouting report ONLY looking at the 16% shooting this year (which would be a mistake as there really wasn't enough data to use that number)?
The lead author of the article once said something like "I've had more arguments about this subject than any other. I've won every argument and convinced no one." But a thought experiment is worthwhile. Say John Black (34% last year and this) is 4-4 from three and Jim Davis is 0-8 (career 43.5 3 point shooter) (exaggerating to make a point) and you need a three point shot to tie with a few seconds left. Assuming that both are healthy, who do you give the ball to for that shot? The hot hand (for most fans) says give it to Black. Statistics says give it to Davis. Which is right.
My math skills ain't gonna solve it, but it is a fun issue that does have relevance to playing the game.
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