If you recall, I posted a thread a few weeks back where we discussed a pivotal 5 game stretch. It started with moo and ended with Syracuse. We won them all. We have arrived at another pivotal 5 game stretch. It just so happens this one ends the regular season.
So, what does this stretch mean? Well, I'm of the belief that the next 5 games are all "must win" games for us. And like the previous 5 game stretch that had it own thread, I think we can and should win them all. Let's break it down.
First up is a Saturday home, noon tip with GT. GT isn't good. We should be favored by roughly 10 points and we should win by even more. Our confidence could be shaken a bit but if it is, that's on Roy. He has to motivate this team to the point where they think we can still do great things. Because we can. We can't win the reg season. But we need to make damn sure we get one of the top 4 seeds in the ACC tournament. Winning this game, starts our ascension. And let's be honest, if we lose to GT at home, we can pretty much close the book on the season.
Next up is moo at our place on Tuesday of next week. Let's forget about the mind control we have over moo. Even still, we're a better team than they are and we're playing at home. Again, we will be favored and we should win. The thing that scares me about this game, and the GT game to a lesser degree, is that because we are better, do we get a lead and then piss it away? That's this team's MO. We just don't finish well. We controlled the first game against moo but we let them stay close by not being productive down the stretch and they made a game out of it. But like losing a game at home to GT, if we have not learned how to keep the pedal down after last night, this team doesn't have much of a chance in the NCAA tourney.
The 3rd game of this 5 game stretch is a road game at Miami. This is, IMO, the toughest game left on our schedule. If we win the next 2, we should be favored though. Miami is a hot and cold team. Some nights they play great and others they play like dogs. They have the disadvantage of playing 2 tough games before us - @Louisville and home against rival FSU. That might take a lot out of them. But this will be the real measuring stick of this team's resolve. I expect to beat GT and moo because they're home games. But to go on the road, late in the season and beat a capable team will show if we've grown through the last 2 weeks.
The 4th game is a road game against GT. We never play any sport well in ATL but again, GT is bad. They don't do anything well except rebound the ball. But it just so happens that we're pretty good at that too. And frankly, I think their rebounding numbers are inflated by being such a bad shooting team. Their bound to come up with some of those misses.
Last, but of course, not least, the rematch with duke. If our boys don't want this game after serving it up to them last night, then we need new players. I have a feeling though that we'll play our best game of the year and that we'll win that game decisively.
Winning all 5 puts us at 23-8 (13-5 - which is what Kenpom predicted for us) going into the ACC tournament. Will that put us in the top 4? I think so. UVa basically has the 1 spot locked up. Duke and ND are battling for the 2 seed with duke having the tiebreaker on account of them beating UVa. It's us and Louisville battling for the coveted 4 seed. We could make our way to the 2 or 3 seed but I don't think that's happening. And I'm ok with that....as long as we get the 4 seed. ND only has 4 games left and only one is tough. Duke has us and then their next toughest game is a home game against Syracuse. So it doesn't look like duke or ND is coming back to the pack. Louisville has 2 really tough games left - against UVa and ND. Both of those games are at home but the Cards have been better on the road this year. We need Louisville to lose though because they will hold the tiebreaker over us on account of beating ND (if they win out).
Thoughts?
So, what does this stretch mean? Well, I'm of the belief that the next 5 games are all "must win" games for us. And like the previous 5 game stretch that had it own thread, I think we can and should win them all. Let's break it down.
First up is a Saturday home, noon tip with GT. GT isn't good. We should be favored by roughly 10 points and we should win by even more. Our confidence could be shaken a bit but if it is, that's on Roy. He has to motivate this team to the point where they think we can still do great things. Because we can. We can't win the reg season. But we need to make damn sure we get one of the top 4 seeds in the ACC tournament. Winning this game, starts our ascension. And let's be honest, if we lose to GT at home, we can pretty much close the book on the season.
Next up is moo at our place on Tuesday of next week. Let's forget about the mind control we have over moo. Even still, we're a better team than they are and we're playing at home. Again, we will be favored and we should win. The thing that scares me about this game, and the GT game to a lesser degree, is that because we are better, do we get a lead and then piss it away? That's this team's MO. We just don't finish well. We controlled the first game against moo but we let them stay close by not being productive down the stretch and they made a game out of it. But like losing a game at home to GT, if we have not learned how to keep the pedal down after last night, this team doesn't have much of a chance in the NCAA tourney.
The 3rd game of this 5 game stretch is a road game at Miami. This is, IMO, the toughest game left on our schedule. If we win the next 2, we should be favored though. Miami is a hot and cold team. Some nights they play great and others they play like dogs. They have the disadvantage of playing 2 tough games before us - @Louisville and home against rival FSU. That might take a lot out of them. But this will be the real measuring stick of this team's resolve. I expect to beat GT and moo because they're home games. But to go on the road, late in the season and beat a capable team will show if we've grown through the last 2 weeks.
The 4th game is a road game against GT. We never play any sport well in ATL but again, GT is bad. They don't do anything well except rebound the ball. But it just so happens that we're pretty good at that too. And frankly, I think their rebounding numbers are inflated by being such a bad shooting team. Their bound to come up with some of those misses.
Last, but of course, not least, the rematch with duke. If our boys don't want this game after serving it up to them last night, then we need new players. I have a feeling though that we'll play our best game of the year and that we'll win that game decisively.
Winning all 5 puts us at 23-8 (13-5 - which is what Kenpom predicted for us) going into the ACC tournament. Will that put us in the top 4? I think so. UVa basically has the 1 spot locked up. Duke and ND are battling for the 2 seed with duke having the tiebreaker on account of them beating UVa. It's us and Louisville battling for the coveted 4 seed. We could make our way to the 2 or 3 seed but I don't think that's happening. And I'm ok with that....as long as we get the 4 seed. ND only has 4 games left and only one is tough. Duke has us and then their next toughest game is a home game against Syracuse. So it doesn't look like duke or ND is coming back to the pack. Louisville has 2 really tough games left - against UVa and ND. Both of those games are at home but the Cards have been better on the road this year. We need Louisville to lose though because they will hold the tiebreaker over us on account of beating ND (if they win out).
Thoughts?
