The Skal-a-Thon Draft could begin the end...

[DSouthr]

We watched it in this NBA draft and now the media is talking about it, Skal's draft position dropped like a rock while Thon Maker goes to the Bucks in the lotto. Recall, this time last year everyone was talking about skal as being the clear #1 over all in this last draft. he was going to tear things up in the NCAA, lead Ky to another Natty and then skip off as the #1 over all and we would all have to suffer thru Kalipari crowing about yet again another greatest day in Ky sports history. Then there was Thon Maker, oh what a bone headed move, elected to play another prep season by going up north to Canada hey, no one would see him, he was throwing away his chance to be a NBA lotto selection, According to Ky fans he should have joined Skal at Ky and dominated along side Skal? Problem is it didn't work out like that, did it...

No, skal sat in the green room with kal, kal freakin out, how could this happen, Skal falling out of the lotto and nearly falling out of the first round, Skal just watched himself lose millions and the whispers have begun. Did skal lose millions BECAUSE he went to Ky, would he have been better off doing what Thon Maker did and just dominate against prep school competition and not risk getting exposed by playing against higher level competition in the NCAA?

Ya see that is the dirty secret about the one & done deal, many feel they are one & done able, some sadly discover that it isn't as easy to dominate in college as they thought. It wasn't just skal that saw his one & done dreams of lotto millions slide. How about Diello, Zimmerman, Diamond Stone? They watched their one & done lotto dreams unravel, who didn't, Thon Maker didn't. Thon Maker was not exposed because he was stashed in Canada playing against high school level competition with no risk of being exposed?

Now the one & done has been sold by guys like kalipari as the ONLY way, come play in college for one season, then off to wait in the green room for your lotto ticket to be punched. But the lotto tickets were punched by a bunch of euros that didn't play in the NCAA, some that played very little for their euro team. And then there is Thon Maker... Kal sells that exposure you get for playing at Ky, how that exposure should guarantee you a lotto spot after your only 1 season. But as skal now realizes, that is not a money back guarantee, in fact it is more risk and maybe more risk than reward. Skal was exposed as not really being ready for higher level competition in that one college season, similar case can be made for Deillo/Zimmerman/Stone and a few others as well. Would hiding their flaws from all that NCAA exposure have resulted in high draft spots for those guys, would playing NCAA ball have increased Thon Maker's draft position? We don't know but we do know for sure playing that one season for kalapari did expose Skal and it cost him millions.

Now I am not saying this opens the flood gates but it does show a crack in the armor of that one & done program and it could very well plant the seed of question in some of these kids minds, should I risk being exposed , should I risk injury playing college ball, or should I shut it down like Thon did, should I go to Europe and not get as exposed as was the case for several of the euro first rounders? And what if they change it from 1 & done to 2 before you can enter a draft, as rumors suggest may happen with the next NBA CBA? Is college to much risk now, how much more risky would it be if I play 2 college seasons?

Before you dismiss this out of hand consider, these kids now days are making more a business decision when it comes to what school they commit to. Business decisions are all about risk and reward, college coaches sell the reward and don't want to talk about the risk, the kids however see the risk and they discuss the risk with their business managers and many of these one & dones as we know already have business managers along with them during the recruiting process. I do think that this last draft to some degree showed an increased risk and maybe dropped the reward factor, to what extent depends on the player but there is now more to think about than there was before draft night and if you don't believe me, ask Skal...

 

[goheels653]

If it helps anyone it's Duke. But it's not gonna change anything at Kentucky.

 

[DSouthr]

If it helps anyone it's Duke. But it's not gonna change anything at Kentucky.

I don't think it helps duke because that same question will be there for all one & done kids. Look at the risk Giles is taking, 2 knee injuries repaired before college, God forbid he have another in his one & done. His NBA stock would fall like a rock.

 

[heels05champs]

Skal going late and Ulis in the second round won't effect UK one single bit. Just watch how many first rounders they have in 2017 and the recruiting class they're gonna land in 2017. They lead for many of the top guys right now.

 

[Archer2]

Meh. Fact is most OAD's aren't ready after their obligatory year in college. But they think they are and they want to get paid ASAP. That's really all that matters to them. So I don't see much changing. UK and dook will continue to be OADU as long as Cal and the LOM are coaching there.

 

[HeelFan58]

It's amazing with all the questions about Maker , that somebody would take him that high.

 

[gary-7]

It's amazing with all the questions about Maker , that somebody would take him that high.

It is a risk. He is remarkably skilled but remarkably skinny.

 

[ohio tarheels]

The NBA is all about potential anymore and 90% of the picks are made for 2-3 years down the road... I mean in all reality what has Wiggins done being buried in Minnesota that he couldn't have done in college except making way too much money for a 19 year old kid who can run, jump and put a ball in the basket 9 or 10 times a game?? I know it will never happen but still will keep saying that the NBA needs to adopt the same rule as MLB

 

[carolinablue34]

This won't change a thing. I personally believe this recruiting style Kentucky as relied has more to do with Calipari's charisma than anything else. It'll even out at some point, but for right now they got the pzazz and the appeal to the top 20 guys.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Unfortunately the Skal scenario won't change a thing. The only way to change it all is for NBA folk to stop being idiots with their picks!

The OAD rule was brought in to save NBA GM's from their own stupidity.... and it could be argued in light of all the untested internationals picked in the first round that they haven't learned.

The reality is, in each 'age year' there are a maximum of 5-7 franchise changing players. With 30 first round picks with guaranteed contracts the NBA is being forced to 'mine' the younger ages, accelerating the development time-line of many young players. They're also using the foreign leagues to 'stash' picks so they don't have to pay to develop kids who are not NBA ready.

In hindsight, all the frosh and sophs who went in the second round: Deyonta Davis, Diallo, Stone, Zimmerman, Ulis, Onuaku, McCaw, Whitehead, Bentil, Hamilton probably needed more time to develop into first round picks.

I feel sorry for those kids. They went to the combine and basically got lied to.

If GM's had honestly and forthrightly told those kids they wouldn't be a first round pick, I believe some if not all would go back to school, deepening the talent pool and making it harder for the next bunch of frosh in 2017.

It's not OAD that's the problem, and not even HS to pros (up until 10 years ago) it's the guaranteed contract for 30 first round picks - a foolish business model that acts as a safety net for talented players to declare before they're ready.

The whole darn thing is broken and, sadly, Skal slipping 10-15 places in the draft won't fix it!

 

[DSouthr]

I think some of you guys are missing the point here, that main point being is that the seas change difference now is that kids are making business decisions out of high school and that business decision is most often to play 1 season in college. Yes, they are flocking to Ky and duke and kansas to a lesser extent but they are not deciding on those schools because of kalipari's charisma or K coaching the Olympic team. They are flocking mostly to those 2 schools because those programs promise them what they want and what they want is to play no more than 1 season of college ball and they are going to the programs that most often deliver on that promise. It isn't about what they can do in college, it isn't about who the coach is, it is all about their brand being crafted by the exposure of the college game and the near guarantee of no more than 1 season in the college game.

These kids out of high school most all follow the same thinking, if he can then I can, I want to do just what he did to get the same results. Understand the business decision they are making, it boils down to risk and reward.

Reward
1) I can sit in the green room and hear my name called in the lotto after only 1 season in college ball.
2) I can build my brand for the apparel companies and ink a shoe deal to go along with my lotto selection pay check.
3) The coach will modify his system so that I can play the way I have always been able to play and not have to adjust my game to something I am not familiar with so any flaws I may have are limited in exposure.
4) I and those that are helping me can get paid as soon as possible. I can get that rookie salary cap contract clock started sooner and that allows me to get in to those mega bucks contracts sooner.
5) I can not have to work hard on getting the grades I need to remain eligible in that 1 season I play in college.
6) If our college team does great it increases my brand and the hotter my brand is the more I can make in a shoe deal.

Risk:

1) I may have some flaws in my game exposed that NBA teams do not yet see with all the constant exposure on US TV.
2) I could get hurt and that drop my draftability in the next available draft.
3) My coach could strand me on the bench and NBA teams don't want to draft guys off a bench with lotto selections. I have to start and I have to have all the PT I want.
4) My college team may not do well and that would have my shoe deal money effected,
5) I have to at least act like I am a college student and the risk that someone will find out how I remain eligible could go public and hurt my brand.

There is the risk and rewards of their business decision and with the status quo they have made the choices they have been making. But let the risk column increase or let the reward column increase and those decisions could change. And as we have seen, these kids play follow the leader, what one does they all consider doing, especially if risk is reduced and reward easier to get.

Floods begin with a trickle at first and then the stream of water increases. What you see in this skal-a-thon draft situation is a trickle and it isn't the first trickle, kids skipping college and playing in europe for a season was the first trickle and this season we see yet another one of those. Thon is yet another trickle, skal slipping so far after playing for the gold standard poster program for the one & done is another trickle to join the tiny so far stream. That tiny trickle has now grown and while it is yet still very small it isn't as small as it was...

If you don't believe me then ask Skal, he knows today he made a mistake, he knows today that had he done what Thon Maker did that he would have very likely been drafted before Thon Maker and could have been drafted before anyone else. he realized that sitting in that green room with kalipari and watching guy after guy drafted before his name was called very late int he first round. he realized then, millions just flew out of his bank account and in to the account of some other players even some that played more than 1 season in college, even 1 that played all 4 seasons in college. That was not what Kalipari promised him and it was not what he thought his business decision would yield. Do you think Skal is the only one that noticed that?

 

[DSouthr]

One other side point that needs making, there was a very real reason kal was in a state of panic over Skal dropping so far in this draft, his next crop of recruits were watching this. This is kal's super recruiting day, he was on all the sports talk TV shows prior to this draft hyping up his guys and selling to his next crop of recruits the greatness of committing to Ky. And while Skal kept dropping Ulis dropped completely out of the first round he was hearing the sound of a shark jumping in his mind.

Kal knows, he has to be able to put big time talent on the floor for Ky, it is the only way he keeps his gig, he isn't the kind of coach that is going to win if the talent levels are equal or even close. If he can't out talent teams him teams are not very good and that will not cut it at Ky for long. That is what you get when you build a ponzi scheme, its foundation has to be strong or the whole thing will fall apart. That is what kalipari has at Ky, a ponzi that relies on trends staying the same, relies on the one & done system and his program as being seen as the best conduit for the one & done dreams. But now the questions are is it, is it really?

In a recent article I read where kalipari said something to the order of no matter what changes are made that Ky will still feed from the top. Meaning even if they allow one & done kids to bypass college and go direct to the NBA Kal & Ky would still get the best of the best that remain. Nice try Kal but the problem with that is the talent gap reduces because once you get outside of the hyped one & done type players the talent gap is not nearly the same. means kal's real advantage of being able to out talent any team he plays is strongly reduced and the wheel again turns to coaches developing teams and players and that just is not what Kalipari does, it never has been, he was not really a factor in the college game until the one & done. he got by well in Memphis using diploma mill guys and guys that could not get eligible to play in college unless some dirty tricks were used but that is harder under that spot light Ky is always under.

And kalipapri's teams will not be able to be at the front of the line if his teams do not win and if he doesn't have that huge advantage in talent his teams are not going to win as Ky fans have gotten used to. Ky fans will not tolerate not wining at the highest levels for long especially with a coach that they do not really trust to do things the right way. Ky fans can look the other way when the discussion of what Kal does to get some of his players now and they wil look the other way as long as his teams win. When they don't win as they have been then those very same Ky fans that profess how much they love him now will turn on him and with those fans it does not take long.

I feel like this current Ky team is more hype and substance and yet this team is going to have to win big time. This Ky has to make it to the final 4 because the hype that this may be kals best recruiting class is full blown. That means there is nothing less than a final 4 in the epectations of those Ky fans and the media that pimps him. If he does not get them there then you are going to see Kal's greatness take a big time hit and for this UNC fan that could be a lot of fun to see...

 

[trestyles]

You do know he was ROY of the year right? He has performed well.

The NBA is all about potential anymore and 90% of the picks are made for 2-3 years down the road... I mean in all reality what has Wiggins done being buried in Minnesota that he couldn't have done in college except making way too much money for a 19 year old kid who can run, jump and put a ball in the basket 9 or 10 times a game?? I know it will never happen but still will keep saying that the NBA needs to adopt the same rule as MLB

 

[goheels653]

I don't think it helps duke because that same question will be there for all one & done kids. Look at the risk Giles is taking, 2 knee injuries repaired before college, God forbid he have another in his one & done. His NBA stock would fall like a rock.

I misunderstood, but my point still stands. If you're saying Skal dropping is going to make all freshmen reconsider one-and-done, you're wrong. I thought you were just saying that it was going to hurt Calipari with one-and-done leaning recruits, which I also think is wrong. I also thought that, assuming the idea that it would hurt Calipari/Kentucky is true, you were implying that this would somehow help Carolina, which I also think is wrong. To the extent one-and-done kids are now the slightest bit less inclined to go to Kentucky, I maintain that it helps Duke, because the absolute best of those kids are currently picking between Kentucky and Duke, and perhaps Skal falling makes someone who's on the fence more inclined to go to Duke. In any event, K is obviously a significantly better coach than Calipari, and if I were a one-and-done kid picking between those two schools, I would go play for K in a heartbeat. If Roy wants to jump in and change his philosophy on mass-recruiting of one-and-dones and try to take advantage of Skal dropping as the basis for his pitch to these recruits, I'm sure he could give it a try and it might work, but I don't see him going there as a large-scale strategy the way K and Calipari are going.

Anyways, as you can tell, I generally disagree with you on this, but maybe you're right.

Also, Giles slipping because of another injury would be completely unrelated to your initial points, and would certainly not be anything like Skal slipping. If some recruit reasons that they shouldn't go to Duke and play for K because Giles gets hurt and his draft stock slips, that recruit is a total moron.

 

[DSouthr]

I misunderstood, but my point still stands. If you're saying Skal dropping is going to make all freshmen reconsider one-and-done, you're wrong. I thought you were just saying that it was going to hurt Calipari with one-and-done leaning recruits, which I also think is wrong. I also thought that, assuming the idea that it would hurt Calipari/Kentucky is true, you were implying that this would somehow help Carolina, which I also think is wrong. To the extent one-and-done kids are now the slightest bit less inclined to go to Kentucky, I maintain that it helps Duke, because the absolute best of those kids are currently picking between Kentucky and Duke, and perhaps Skal falling makes someone who's on the fence more inclined to go to Duke. In any event, K is obviously a significantly better coach than Calipari, and if I were a one-and-done kid picking between those two schools, I would go play for K in a heartbeat. If Roy wants to jump in and change his philosophy on mass-recruiting of one-and-dones and try to take advantage of Skal dropping as the basis for his pitch to these recruits, I'm sure he could give it a try and it might work, but I don't see him going there as a large-scale strategy the way K and Calipari are going.

Anyways, as you can tell, I generally disagree with you on this, but maybe you're right.

Also, Giles slipping because of another injury would be completely unrelated to your initial points, and would certainly not be anything like Skal slipping. If some recruit reasons that they shouldn't go to Duke and play for K because Giles gets hurt and his draft stock slips, that recruit is a total moron.

REALLY? Did ya read all of what I wrote? A lot of what you are talking about is not what I was talking about so I am kinda confused om how to answer you? There is so much confusing in this reply that I am just gonna leave it alone.

I will simply say that what occurred on draft night takes the once very tiny trickle and increases it, I never said the flood gates were opened from this, what I said was the trickle size of other options than college increases after this draft. And believe it or not, I am not the only one talking about this. So take this as a none issue if you will but heads turned during that draft and that is not opinion.

To clariify one thing you seem really confused on, I NEVER said skal dropping was going to make all others now stop considering playing college ball or or stop players ranked in the top 10 to stop considering Ky. That is like saying everyone is going to drown because I just found a drop of water? What I think I very clearly said was this is another consideration that many of these kids will have to look at when they make their business decisions. That in the eyes of some it could add to the risk or take away from the reward columns and at some point enough of that will cause them to begin to make different decisions, most importantly being if they want to play college ball at all.

 

[HeelFan58]

Unfortunately the Skal scenario won't change a thing. The only way to change it all is for NBA folk to stop being idiots with their picks!

The OAD rule was brought in to save NBA GM's from their own stupidity.... and it could be argued in light of all the untested internationals picked in the first round that they haven't learned.

The reality is, in each 'age year' there are a maximum of 5-7 franchise changing players. With 30 first round picks with guaranteed contracts the NBA is being forced to 'mine' the younger ages, accelerating the development time-line of many young players. They're also using the foreign leagues to 'stash' picks so they don't have to pay to develop kids who are not NBA ready.

In hindsight, all the frosh and sophs who went in the second round: Deyonta Davis, Diallo, Stone, Zimmerman, Ulis, Onuaku, McCaw, Whitehead, Bentil, Hamilton probably needed more time to develop into first round picks.

I feel sorry for those kids. They went to the combine and basically got lied to.

If GM's had honestly and forthrightly told those kids they wouldn't be a first round pick, I believe some if not all would go back to school, deepening the talent pool and making it harder for the next bunch of frosh in 2017.

It's not OAD that's the problem, and not even HS to pros (up until 10 years ago) it's the guaranteed contract for 30 first round picks - a foolish business model that acts as a safety net for talented players to declare before they're ready.

The whole darn thing is broken and, sadly, Skal slipping 10-15 places in the draft won't fix it!

I think the amount of truly franchise changing players is more like 1-2. I don't think there are any in this year's draft.

 

[soap - new and improved]

I doubt it makes any difference at all. Most of these kids are firmly planted in the "that doesn't apply yo me, I am SPECIAL" crowd. When someone else fails to meet goals/expectations most of the 1 and Done kids think "He ain't me, I am different/better than that."

 

[carolinablue34]

Nothing is going to change because of this. Roy will continue to get the players he needs and hopefully start landing some higher ranked guys once the lingering effects of the scandal wear off.

But those of you who think this is some crack in the armor for Calipari, I don't agree at all.

 

[DSouthr]

I doubt it makes any difference at all. Most of these kids are firmly planted in the "that doesn't apply yo me, I am SPECIAL" crowd. When someone else fails to meet goals/expectations most of the 1 and Done kids think "He ain't me, I am different/better than that."

Yeah soapy but there is also a lot of follow the leader these kids get in to, even if they do not realize it. It is as if they watch others and then realize that hey, maybe that is a better way to go. Kids have always gone to major college programs and thought that one day they to could play in the NBA, that much has never changed. What has changed is now they have AAU and EYBL coaches that are telling these kids they are NBA ready now and in many cases looking to cash in on the kid's future so they want to push him league as quick as they can to get their payday sooner.

Shoe companies are getting involved with these kids now at the AAU/EYBL level, steering them to their events, steering them to particular college programs, and you know that kind of influence is coming with the promise of future shoe deal money as well as pay days for the access to the AAU/EYBL coaches. Notice how often a kid's "advisor" what we other wise know as street agent is one of his former coaches? They are all steering these kids toward a payday very early because those doing the steering are looking for an early pay off. And really, all it takes for most 16-18yr olds is to blow enough smoke up their butts because they all inside believe they have greatness in them, tell them they are ready now to play in the NBA and it is exactly what the kid wants to hear, of course he is going to embrace that, of course he is going to have his actions reflect that.

In another thread gary was talking about a kid we are recruiting that it appears has had his head blow up by all the smoke that has been blown up his butt. But honestly, with so much smoke blown up their butts, by everyone they trust like coaches and family and friends, for so long, and so constantly, makes me wonder how a 18yr old kid can not have his head blow up and his ego jump thru the roof. Personally I think most of the top 50 are guys believe they are better than they really are, you can pretty much expect that from top 20 kids. Many discover a harsh reality when they play that freshman season in college, it ain't like it was when you played pickup with the team on that recruiting visit...

I will tell you this much, where things are right now those that surround these kids and "guide" them, the mentors and the family friends, and in some cases the parents, they would prefer their pay off not have to wait for that one season of college ball to be played any more than any of you not minding if your friday pay day is delayed a month or more. If they can find a way around that and a way that works then they will begin to steer these kids in that direction. I think we can all agree, those pay days to those that advise these kids is today ocurring in college under the table but I don't think we are so naive as to believe this is not a every day occurrence, you know these kids are getting cash bonus money for signing with a program as well as cash funneled to them as they play.

We have a kind of an odd balance going on right now that can easily be tipped in to a new direction with the slightest of nudges and some nudges have already occurred. It is just a matter of time before the NBA goes back to a path way to allow some kids to enter the draft right out of high school, it is not a matter of if they will, it is a matter of when. When that occurs you are going to see most of the top 10 in each class try to bypass college and enter the league. If they put in a 2 or 3yr baseball type of deal in place it could drive most of the top 20 players away from college.

Now those programs that today base their teams one the one & done process will not just be effected, they will be hammered hard, because they now days rely on being able to out talent their opponents but when you take the top 20 players out of the mix, the parity of talents evens out and coaches will once again have to develop players and teams and not be able to out talent with freshmen.