You asked for it, here I'll try to deliver.
North Carolina's got a junior day coming up on March 7 which obviously coincides with the Duke basketball game. That's always a huge draw for recruits in-state, out of state and out of region. North Carolina's fortunate to not only be centrally located in an area with a lot of talented players that can make weekend and even mid-week visits, but also because they have two huge out-of-season draws for visitors: The Freak Show, which is one of the summer's premier team camp events that's only gaining in popularity by the year, and the UNC-Duke basketball game. It really is a big deal for recruits.
Normally basketball games are on the periphery and just an "okay" part of the junior day experience. UNC's coaches generally go out of the main seating area and play games like cornhole or just hang out with the players for much of these games. With an electric atmosphere in the nation's premier rivalry, the game will be a real part of the trip for many of these players. But it will also be an opportunity for the coaches to sit with these players, to talk to them on a personal level, to meet their families, to introduce them to players, to give presentations, etc.
We hope to have an extensive list of visitors as the weekend approaches, in all likelihood on Friday.
"Big" junior day events are declining in popularity around the country as there's a near-universal consensus emerging that smaller events on days and weekends are better because they give kids more time and individual attention with/from the coaches. Sometimes kids come a long way and are put off when they only get 10-15 minutes of face time and it amounts to a, "Hey, we like your film."
UNC's coaches are having bigger junior days than we're seeing at a lot of other places but not enormous or so big they run the risk listed above. You've got a staff of about 10-15 people there talking, plus players and (usually) commitments, early enrollees, etc. And if you have 30-50 recruits, there's plenty of time to spend with guys in an atmosphere and on a day like that.
BIG PICTURE
North Carolina's got two commitments in the '16 class. One, Kyran Bowman, seems rock solid. He's said he will take other visits but he's also consistently seemed really solid. Javontay Smith stays very quiet and off the radar but in spite of the LSU offer it's a good sign he's visiting at the end of this week. I believe his visit starts tomorrow and runs through the weekend. We should have more from sources on where they stand with him after that trip.
There aren't any alums of Columbus (Ga.) Carver to hook Smith up with on his visit but there are plenty of Georgia kids that he will be able to meet.
You figure UNC expects to take a 'full' class in '16. Without specifying the numbers, you're looking for across the board help and a full haul. Every ACC school but Georgia Tech and Wake Forest has more commitments than UNC. Here are those numbers: Miami (18), FSU (9), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (6), NC State (6), Duke (5), Louisville, UVA, BC (3). UNC having two commitments right now is no cause for concern. The real outlier is Miami and frankly that class is not as good as people expected it to be when the flood of those commitments started very early. It just hasn't panned out, at least in the minds of analysts.
Having two commitments a month after Signing Day is 100-percent normal. It's increasingly common to see early commitments so it would not be a surprise at all if UNC started to gain steam this weekend or even just beyond. UNC could have had more commitments if they pushed hard for some of the three-star guys on board. But they have a couple of guys they love at each position and it's early enough that they can wait and feel out where they stand.
IN THE STATE
Kyran Bowman is ranked No. 26 in North Carolina. Last year the Heels and Pack locked down more of the state's top talent than they have in a lot of other recent years. The hope had to be that would be a trend, but it's turning out to be an aberration -- at least so far. There's plenty of time to flip guys and win other battles.
Seven of the state's top 14 players in '16 are already committed to out of state schools. None of the state's top 25 players are committed to in-state schools. That's pretty amazing. Not necessarily a cause for hand-wringing, but it's a little perplexing after the late momentum that both UNC and NC State generated last year.
Dexter Lawrence and Keion Joyner aren't making decisions anytime soon and that's probably a good thing for UNC. They will keep an open mind and maybe open recruitments through the season, so UNC's best opportunity is to put together the kind of special season many believe the Heels can have, with a senior, experienced QB, great skill position talent, new defensive coaches, and a very manageable schedule. Win 10 games and the belief is they could tip Joyner. Joyner's more likely to show a lot of movement in UNC's direction as a result of a great season because his concerns with UNC have more been along the lines of his desire to play for championships. Lawrence wants to see wins, but he's probably more likely to consider other factors, too.
In the grand scheme landing one of those two guys probably isn't a tipping point for a lot of other recruits. Why? Because I don't think they're going to commit really early. And I think no matter what decisions they make, it's going to come down to February for both of them. I don't get the sense from either that once they give a verbal it's going to be "shut it down, it's over," time.
Then you look at the state's other top players.
Julian Okwara (No. 6) - UNC loves him. At first it was an in-state narrative. More recently out of state schools are flooding in. I think it's slightly more likely than not that he leaves the state but he's still on the board.
Antonio Williams (No. 7) - Technically he's committed but Wisconsin hasn't endeared themselves by giving him the cold shoulder when they hired a new staff. He will visit UNC this weekend, I believe.
Jordon Brown (No. 9) - UNC's in great shape here. He will visit again this weekend.
Chazz Surratt (No. 11) - UNC and Duke lead.
Robert Washington (No. 12) - Coming up with a final six and he's already put UNC, Alabama, TCU and Syracuse in there. Offers from Alabama and USC, recently, are appealing. Think the Trojans may secure one of those last two spots. UNC has done everything they can recruiting Washington. Here's the deal. This is a kid that's traveled a ton with Team USA Football and for All-American games already. He has family ties in the Northeast and has traveled all over. That makes him less likely to feel "tied" in-state. So I don't even consider his Huntersville, N.C., residence as a real bonus. UNC will have to win him on their own merits, not tied to proximity. They can do that.
Nick Coe (No. 13) - I believe UNC leads.
Josh Brown (No. 14) - Committed to FSU, but UNC and others will continue to recruit. He's a great talent. Not saying they will, but FSU is going to be "in it" for a lot of elite talents. So I wouldn't be surprised, in the long run, if numbers get tight in Tallahassee, if you catch my drift. Don't write him off.
Landon Dickerson (No. 15) - Think he's leaning elsewhere.
Tre Harbison (No. 16) - UNC has tried to make up ground with him. Not sure they're at the top but they're in the mix.
Thaddeus Moss (No. 17) - Randy's son, hasn't really been as connected to UNC as some other schools.
Isaiah Stallings (No. 19) - UNC loves this kid and I believe they would be on his short list. He's teammates with Mark Gilbert so that's worth paying attention to.
C.J. Freeman (No. 20) - He likes UNC but for whatever reason they haven't warmed to him as much as some other schools.
Divine Deablo (No. 21) - UNC would be on the short list.
Moe Neal (No. 22) - Has not been the priority for UNC that he's been for other schools.
Jimmie Taylor (No. 23) - UNC wants him for sure and he's likely to continue visiting. UNC's a short list school in all likelihood.
Kennedy McKoy, Zack Gilbert and (especially) Garrett Walston in 24-27 range (Bowman's 26) are all targets. So is Christian Colon (No. 29), Taleni Suhren (No. 31), possibly Emmanuel Jones and Johnnie Glaspie (No. 34-35). Down the line Jonathan Smith, Keyshawn Canady and Pete Leota are targets, too.
In short, the following are the major in-state targets to follow if you're a UNC fan.
Lawrence, Joyner, Okwara, A. Williams, Jordon Brown, Surratt, R. Washington, Coe, Josh Brown, Stallings, Deablo, J. Taylor, McKoy, Z. Gilbert, Bowman (committed), Walston, Colon, Suhren, J. Smith, Canady and Leota.
I think they'd be happy to take commitments from those guys.
The following are players that "could" be in-staters that UNC takes or is willing to take, based on further evaluation and/or camps.
M. Gilbert, Ian Boyd, E. Jones, Glaspie, Jeremiah Brown. T. McCarter.
IN-STATE DEVELOPMENTS
Penn State made a move with Colon at their junior day, offering and really impressing him. UNC will be the local option on his short list and in the long run. He's very open to going out of state, though, and Penn State is now a major contender.
Simeon Gatling is claiming an LSU offer but I've spoken with a source and I'm not sure how firm that offer is. Not saying it isn't legit, but it's a curious offer.
Diondre Overton is reportedly favoring Clemson but UNC's still right in the thick of things.
PLAYERS THAT COULD RISE IN-STATE
I think the following players have the potential to see their rankings (star and state ranking) rise based on recent interest and offers generated: Robert Washington (No. 12 --- likely to rise), Isaiah Stallings (No. 19--- can just say lots of schools are very high on him), Christian Colon (lot of interest for No. 29), Diondre Overton (NR--- likely to end up pretty high), Taleni Suhren (high value per some schools at No. 31), Jonathan Smith (No. 41 --- could be a big riser).
SITUATION AT QUARTERBACK
For the longest time it's appeared that Surratt is Plan A at quarterback. He may be, and I think I'd give UNC a slight edge over Duke. But it's probably close. However, if Jawon Pass goes through with his visit with his teammate Smith, which could last several days, there's talk that the Heels could continue to sky with him. Surratt's a local kid so you have to tread carefully and they genuinely love him. I also believe Pass comes with his own intrigue. I think he's probably got higher upside as a passer and he probably helps firm up Smith, who they like a lot and was recently offered by LSU.
A lot of other targets that you've heard about, from Deuce Wallace to Jacob Hallenbeck and Noah Wezensky, are not serious targets until/unless Surratt and Pass go elsewhere. But I'm pretty confident UNC will get one of those two and will have a headliner at QB to help with the class' momentum.
NEED AT RUNNING BACK --- OUTLOOK
Amir Rasul (Miami commit) exploded after UNC offered, with UF, FSU and USC offers. He's less of a probability now. I think USC, Georgia and Miami are the three most likely places as of right now, though I wouldn't write off the Florida schools, either.
Right now I think UNC takes two backs. One will be a quicker, more all-purpose player. Jordon Brown is the most likely guy for that spot and he's 1A. The other back needs to be bigger, and it could be Washington, Williams, McKoy or one of a number of other players. Ideally you get Brown and one of the four-star bigger guys, and soon, and you get a ton of publicity for that. Washington announces his decision in late April so that's nice, because you know one way or another and can either count on him or move on. Williams has proven to be more erratic but I still would not write him off. UNC likes him a lot and is staying after him.
We'll cut this one off for now but you can count on a lot more on weekend visitors in days ahead plus all the latest on new offers, as always.
North Carolina's got a junior day coming up on March 7 which obviously coincides with the Duke basketball game. That's always a huge draw for recruits in-state, out of state and out of region. North Carolina's fortunate to not only be centrally located in an area with a lot of talented players that can make weekend and even mid-week visits, but also because they have two huge out-of-season draws for visitors: The Freak Show, which is one of the summer's premier team camp events that's only gaining in popularity by the year, and the UNC-Duke basketball game. It really is a big deal for recruits.
Normally basketball games are on the periphery and just an "okay" part of the junior day experience. UNC's coaches generally go out of the main seating area and play games like cornhole or just hang out with the players for much of these games. With an electric atmosphere in the nation's premier rivalry, the game will be a real part of the trip for many of these players. But it will also be an opportunity for the coaches to sit with these players, to talk to them on a personal level, to meet their families, to introduce them to players, to give presentations, etc.
We hope to have an extensive list of visitors as the weekend approaches, in all likelihood on Friday.
"Big" junior day events are declining in popularity around the country as there's a near-universal consensus emerging that smaller events on days and weekends are better because they give kids more time and individual attention with/from the coaches. Sometimes kids come a long way and are put off when they only get 10-15 minutes of face time and it amounts to a, "Hey, we like your film."
UNC's coaches are having bigger junior days than we're seeing at a lot of other places but not enormous or so big they run the risk listed above. You've got a staff of about 10-15 people there talking, plus players and (usually) commitments, early enrollees, etc. And if you have 30-50 recruits, there's plenty of time to spend with guys in an atmosphere and on a day like that.
BIG PICTURE
North Carolina's got two commitments in the '16 class. One, Kyran Bowman, seems rock solid. He's said he will take other visits but he's also consistently seemed really solid. Javontay Smith stays very quiet and off the radar but in spite of the LSU offer it's a good sign he's visiting at the end of this week. I believe his visit starts tomorrow and runs through the weekend. We should have more from sources on where they stand with him after that trip.
There aren't any alums of Columbus (Ga.) Carver to hook Smith up with on his visit but there are plenty of Georgia kids that he will be able to meet.
You figure UNC expects to take a 'full' class in '16. Without specifying the numbers, you're looking for across the board help and a full haul. Every ACC school but Georgia Tech and Wake Forest has more commitments than UNC. Here are those numbers: Miami (18), FSU (9), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (6), NC State (6), Duke (5), Louisville, UVA, BC (3). UNC having two commitments right now is no cause for concern. The real outlier is Miami and frankly that class is not as good as people expected it to be when the flood of those commitments started very early. It just hasn't panned out, at least in the minds of analysts.
Having two commitments a month after Signing Day is 100-percent normal. It's increasingly common to see early commitments so it would not be a surprise at all if UNC started to gain steam this weekend or even just beyond. UNC could have had more commitments if they pushed hard for some of the three-star guys on board. But they have a couple of guys they love at each position and it's early enough that they can wait and feel out where they stand.
IN THE STATE
Kyran Bowman is ranked No. 26 in North Carolina. Last year the Heels and Pack locked down more of the state's top talent than they have in a lot of other recent years. The hope had to be that would be a trend, but it's turning out to be an aberration -- at least so far. There's plenty of time to flip guys and win other battles.
Seven of the state's top 14 players in '16 are already committed to out of state schools. None of the state's top 25 players are committed to in-state schools. That's pretty amazing. Not necessarily a cause for hand-wringing, but it's a little perplexing after the late momentum that both UNC and NC State generated last year.
Dexter Lawrence and Keion Joyner aren't making decisions anytime soon and that's probably a good thing for UNC. They will keep an open mind and maybe open recruitments through the season, so UNC's best opportunity is to put together the kind of special season many believe the Heels can have, with a senior, experienced QB, great skill position talent, new defensive coaches, and a very manageable schedule. Win 10 games and the belief is they could tip Joyner. Joyner's more likely to show a lot of movement in UNC's direction as a result of a great season because his concerns with UNC have more been along the lines of his desire to play for championships. Lawrence wants to see wins, but he's probably more likely to consider other factors, too.
In the grand scheme landing one of those two guys probably isn't a tipping point for a lot of other recruits. Why? Because I don't think they're going to commit really early. And I think no matter what decisions they make, it's going to come down to February for both of them. I don't get the sense from either that once they give a verbal it's going to be "shut it down, it's over," time.
Then you look at the state's other top players.
Julian Okwara (No. 6) - UNC loves him. At first it was an in-state narrative. More recently out of state schools are flooding in. I think it's slightly more likely than not that he leaves the state but he's still on the board.
Antonio Williams (No. 7) - Technically he's committed but Wisconsin hasn't endeared themselves by giving him the cold shoulder when they hired a new staff. He will visit UNC this weekend, I believe.
Jordon Brown (No. 9) - UNC's in great shape here. He will visit again this weekend.
Chazz Surratt (No. 11) - UNC and Duke lead.
Robert Washington (No. 12) - Coming up with a final six and he's already put UNC, Alabama, TCU and Syracuse in there. Offers from Alabama and USC, recently, are appealing. Think the Trojans may secure one of those last two spots. UNC has done everything they can recruiting Washington. Here's the deal. This is a kid that's traveled a ton with Team USA Football and for All-American games already. He has family ties in the Northeast and has traveled all over. That makes him less likely to feel "tied" in-state. So I don't even consider his Huntersville, N.C., residence as a real bonus. UNC will have to win him on their own merits, not tied to proximity. They can do that.
Nick Coe (No. 13) - I believe UNC leads.
Josh Brown (No. 14) - Committed to FSU, but UNC and others will continue to recruit. He's a great talent. Not saying they will, but FSU is going to be "in it" for a lot of elite talents. So I wouldn't be surprised, in the long run, if numbers get tight in Tallahassee, if you catch my drift. Don't write him off.
Landon Dickerson (No. 15) - Think he's leaning elsewhere.
Tre Harbison (No. 16) - UNC has tried to make up ground with him. Not sure they're at the top but they're in the mix.
Thaddeus Moss (No. 17) - Randy's son, hasn't really been as connected to UNC as some other schools.
Isaiah Stallings (No. 19) - UNC loves this kid and I believe they would be on his short list. He's teammates with Mark Gilbert so that's worth paying attention to.
C.J. Freeman (No. 20) - He likes UNC but for whatever reason they haven't warmed to him as much as some other schools.
Divine Deablo (No. 21) - UNC would be on the short list.
Moe Neal (No. 22) - Has not been the priority for UNC that he's been for other schools.
Jimmie Taylor (No. 23) - UNC wants him for sure and he's likely to continue visiting. UNC's a short list school in all likelihood.
Kennedy McKoy, Zack Gilbert and (especially) Garrett Walston in 24-27 range (Bowman's 26) are all targets. So is Christian Colon (No. 29), Taleni Suhren (No. 31), possibly Emmanuel Jones and Johnnie Glaspie (No. 34-35). Down the line Jonathan Smith, Keyshawn Canady and Pete Leota are targets, too.
In short, the following are the major in-state targets to follow if you're a UNC fan.
Lawrence, Joyner, Okwara, A. Williams, Jordon Brown, Surratt, R. Washington, Coe, Josh Brown, Stallings, Deablo, J. Taylor, McKoy, Z. Gilbert, Bowman (committed), Walston, Colon, Suhren, J. Smith, Canady and Leota.
I think they'd be happy to take commitments from those guys.
The following are players that "could" be in-staters that UNC takes or is willing to take, based on further evaluation and/or camps.
M. Gilbert, Ian Boyd, E. Jones, Glaspie, Jeremiah Brown. T. McCarter.
IN-STATE DEVELOPMENTS
Penn State made a move with Colon at their junior day, offering and really impressing him. UNC will be the local option on his short list and in the long run. He's very open to going out of state, though, and Penn State is now a major contender.
Simeon Gatling is claiming an LSU offer but I've spoken with a source and I'm not sure how firm that offer is. Not saying it isn't legit, but it's a curious offer.
Diondre Overton is reportedly favoring Clemson but UNC's still right in the thick of things.
PLAYERS THAT COULD RISE IN-STATE
I think the following players have the potential to see their rankings (star and state ranking) rise based on recent interest and offers generated: Robert Washington (No. 12 --- likely to rise), Isaiah Stallings (No. 19--- can just say lots of schools are very high on him), Christian Colon (lot of interest for No. 29), Diondre Overton (NR--- likely to end up pretty high), Taleni Suhren (high value per some schools at No. 31), Jonathan Smith (No. 41 --- could be a big riser).
SITUATION AT QUARTERBACK
For the longest time it's appeared that Surratt is Plan A at quarterback. He may be, and I think I'd give UNC a slight edge over Duke. But it's probably close. However, if Jawon Pass goes through with his visit with his teammate Smith, which could last several days, there's talk that the Heels could continue to sky with him. Surratt's a local kid so you have to tread carefully and they genuinely love him. I also believe Pass comes with his own intrigue. I think he's probably got higher upside as a passer and he probably helps firm up Smith, who they like a lot and was recently offered by LSU.
A lot of other targets that you've heard about, from Deuce Wallace to Jacob Hallenbeck and Noah Wezensky, are not serious targets until/unless Surratt and Pass go elsewhere. But I'm pretty confident UNC will get one of those two and will have a headliner at QB to help with the class' momentum.
NEED AT RUNNING BACK --- OUTLOOK
Amir Rasul (Miami commit) exploded after UNC offered, with UF, FSU and USC offers. He's less of a probability now. I think USC, Georgia and Miami are the three most likely places as of right now, though I wouldn't write off the Florida schools, either.
Right now I think UNC takes two backs. One will be a quicker, more all-purpose player. Jordon Brown is the most likely guy for that spot and he's 1A. The other back needs to be bigger, and it could be Washington, Williams, McKoy or one of a number of other players. Ideally you get Brown and one of the four-star bigger guys, and soon, and you get a ton of publicity for that. Washington announces his decision in late April so that's nice, because you know one way or another and can either count on him or move on. Williams has proven to be more erratic but I still would not write him off. UNC likes him a lot and is staying after him.
We'll cut this one off for now but you can count on a lot more on weekend visitors in days ahead plus all the latest on new offers, as always.
