Tuesday and beyond...

[gary-7]

...and I'll preface this by saying that the short turn-around may preclude anything from happening Tuesday, but for those who read the front-page article, it raises the question about potential lineup changes. I don't think there's any issue with "premium content" since AJ is just advocating what many are already thinking about.

We all "know" Roy enough to know he was gonna try to go with a traditional Big in his starting lineup, and the possibilities were exciting with Luke giving us a Hybrid dimension as a Stretch. Hell, had Tony come back, that lineup would have been something for opponents to envy and fear, and it still made perfect sense as a starting point with what we have. So the question of course was what we would get from the frosh Bigs, and that has unfortunately come up wanting.

Here is my take: Roy is loathe to make lineup changes once he gets them set, yet history has shown he will when the need becomes obvious. Replacing Drew with Butter (quite literally) saved us from a return to the NIT, and moving LMac in for Britt in '14 likely did the same. The need for those moves were painfully obvious. It may not be as clear-cut this time, BUT, then again...

Here are some advantages I can see from going that route: 1) It gives Cam more floor time to learn to mesh with the Core Four, 2) (the obvious) It spreads the floor and puts enormous pressure on defenses to extend, 3) It enables us to utilize more 30 and 40 defense, and with it get more transition ops, 4) Both JB's and Theo's driving lanes will open up enabling them to make hay attacking the rim and dishing to open shooters, and I also think it would be tailor made to get Jalek some more minutes, 5) It opens back up more potential PT and natural roles for Andrew and BRob (and yes, we need them to contribute). Platek in particular was playing very well with Cam out and his return has since stunted their growth, 6) Roy can still rotate Garrison and Sterling in during the game, but the Bomb Squad will be the default.

Is a lineup change the way to go this time? We all know the trade-offs in guarding the post and rebounding, but it may well be time to roll the dice.. My larger point here is if Roy does decide to go that direction, it is better done sooner than later. Truth be known he waited longer than he should have with Butter and LMac --- he probably knew replacing Drew would cost him a friendship (it did) and he was still ticked at Leslie over the suspension stuff --- and he waited so long to make the badly needed move to start Berry in '15 it got derailed by JB's illness.

The 3 days after the BC game might be a good time. Unfortunately, since Kennedy left I don't get much practice intel, but it'll be interesting speculation. Will we see a different lineup in South Bend?

 

[FranktheHeel]

Great discussion and I agree with your points, this is something that I have been thinking about the last few days myself.

First off, I think a small lineup will really benefit Luke. He will be given a lot more room to operate and will be able to get back to what he was so good at doing in the beginning of the year which was moving without the ball and picking his spots. Also, if he is being guarded by an opposing 5, he will more than likely be quicker than him, so he could even take him off the dribble. He will have more freedom to move in the post because he will be the only option there, so he can still be able to post up and won't have to face as many traps due to another big being down there, thus giving him the ability to fade away, give a quick pump fake or do a drop step and get to the hoop.

You bringing up B-rob seaways right into what I was thinking after seeing him in the UVA game that if we are going to go small primarily he needs to be the guy to come off the bench and play with great energy to keep the pace going and relieve Cam and Theo for stretches. This lineup could actually be the time for him to step up and shine. I remember you started a thread about some stuff moving forward before conference play and I spoke about how I wanted to see B-rob be a solid contributor for us off the bench coming in with 5-7 points and grabbing 3-4 boards a game, I still stick with that and I think it could happen here.

I think going small will make us more of a scrappy team especially on defense where we can get into teams faces by trapping and pressing trying to force turnovers and loose balls. I want to see more balls knocked loose and Heels laying out on the floor and winning the possession! That baseline double with Theo and B-rob on Saturday really pops out to me as to something we may see a lot more of.

We talked about it a lot in the beginning of the year, how we felt that this team was going to be able to push the temp a lot and basically run teams off the court, a small ball lineup should be able to accomplish that and allow us to get out into transition more. When we go small, I think getting transition scores needs to be right at the top of points that Roy drills home. If we have 5 guys who can run the floor well and have 4 shooters out there to boot, let’s see if other teams can keep up with that pace and stop it.

I very much like your point of having Cam on the floor with the core 4 will lead to an increase in chemistry between them. As we have seen they are our best 5 players and let’s face it the more they play together, the more comfortable they will get as they will be able to understand each others tendencies, find each other in the right spots and know where to help on defense, etc. Also, another big part is they will know how to communicate with each other better. I really believe that the connection of these 5 is the most important part of this team’s success, so let’s give them the majority of minutes together.

And another thing is having Garrison and Manley not have such predominant roles in our scheme is not the worst thing, it may actually take some pressure off of them and in turn lead them to be able to ease into games more easily and contribute in their time on the floor at a higher rate knowing that they have the backing of our other lineups.

Honestly, the idea of playing small excites me because I love the idea of having 5 players who are versatile enough to spread the floor and cause a defense to be able to have to adjust to it. I think it is a weapon that we are fortunate to have this year and will be successful in using it. Bombs away!!!

 

[imajericho]

Not sure.

1. Not having 2 bigs in doesn't really matter as our bigs do not really defend anything inside noticably and are basically non-existent on offense besides Manley getting offensive rebounds.

2. However, you need slashers to make this offensive idea work. We have had a lot of problem with penetrating a defense. In fact, against Virginia it looked like we were just passing the ball around the perimeter to see who wanted to take a defended three. Though this may be due to not enough practice of it.

I do not know how it will turn out. I do know Garrison is providing us basically nothing and Maye looks hella overmatched with any decently sized inside player. They shoot over him and he can't get a shot off versus them a lot.

 

[FranktheHeel]

Rebounding would be one of my concerns with going small, but after thinking about who has gotten the majority of rebounds and looking at our numbers the last few games, I’ve realized that the majority of the rebounds come from the guys that would be playing in the small ball lineup and that Manley who has rebounded well will still be in a similar role and may grab even more if he doesn’t have another big with him on the floor. The same goes with Brooks who I expect to also be able to rebound at the same rate no matter the lineup change. The main thing is that Luke who is our best rebounder on the year will still be on the floor when going small and also our guards especially Theo and Cam have shown the ability that they can bang down low and get rebounds for us consistently. Joel and Kenny have also been able to do the same and will continue to, Joel had 8 last game. It has mostly been a collective effort rebounding up to this point, so it is safe to say that when going small it will continue to be the same way. Winning the battle on the boards has not been the problem as of late, it has been two things, one: getting a big rebound late in games after having a good defensive stance, it was seen twice against UVA and late in the game against Florida State before the foul was called on Cam. Secondly, being able to convert offensive rebounds into second chance points which I also think that going small will be able accomplish since we will have more scoring options on the floor. With offensive rebounds, if we can't go right up with it for an easy put back or get fouled, we need to be able to kick the ball out and if we have shooters open find them and we may be able to get a big 3 out of it. Also, there's nothing wrong with getting the ball out and resetting the offense making the most out of the extra possession.

Here are the numbers from the last four games:

@UVA- Berry-8 (2 off), Maye-8 (3 off), Manley-7 (4 off), Williams-4 (1 off), Johnson-3 (2 off), Robinson-3 (all off), Pinson-2, Brooks-2 (all off), Platek-2 (1 off), Felton-1, Rush-1, Team reb-1
Won battle on the boards, 42-30!!

@Florida State- Johnson-8 (2 off), Williams-7 (3 off), Maye-6 (2 off), Brooks-6, (2 off) Manley-5 (4 off), Pinson-3, Berry-2, Huffman-1 off, Team reb-3
Won battle on boards, 41-37!!

VS Wake- Maye-15 (2 off), Pinson-7 (2 off), Brooks-7 (5 off), Berry-6, Johnson-5 (1 off), Williams-3, (1 off) Manley-2 (1 off), Huffman-2, Team reb-2
Won battle on the boards, 49-34!!

VS Ohio State- Maye-10 (1 off), Pinson-5 (2 off) Johnson-5 (2 off), Felton-4, Berry-3, Williams-3, Brooks-3 (2 off), Manley-2, Platek-1 off, Rush-1, Robinson-1 off, Team reb-1
Won battle on boards, 39-25!!

 

[Archer2]

I like the idea, for many of the same reasons cited above.

 

[notashelbyfan]

I'm not sure just having Tony back would have been enough to put us back in the " comfortable" range with every team we play.

We miss JJ WAY more than are are Bigs right now if we had him to slash, shoot the 3, and could create his own shot the bigs we have now would look head and shoulders better than they do now.

Last year if Tony would have been this year's team as a freshman he would look a lot like Manley and Brooks looks now.

Our best teams had that guy that could do it all and score by getting his own shot

17-JJ (NC)
16-JJ and Paige (runner up)
12-Barnes (would have been FF at least if Mashall dont got down)
09-Green (NC)
05-McCants (NC)
00-Forte (FF)
98-Carter and Jamison (FF)
97-Carter and Jamison (FF)
95-Stackhouse (FF)

You can go on forever on this so let's now just blame or lay fault to the bigs being the only reason for struggle.

I think JJ leaving is a bigger issue!

 

[MJUNC]

I think we will see something not sure what but Roy did say in his presser that he needed to make some changes. Gary I agree I like the idea of the bomb squad things are not working very well with what Roy is currently doing and I think he sees it to. What are your thoughts on maybe Felton and Berry on floor at same time in some stretches do you think that would help Felton??

 

[dadika13]

You guys are gonna hate to hear it, but it's 3 stars being 3 stars.

Not everyone is Luke Maye (very few are obviously) where they completely out perform their projections. Most 3 stars, especially as freshman, will struggle immensely when the competition gets raised. Even Luke struggles in ACC play.

As I've said on a few threads here - zero expectations coming into this season.

I'm happy Kenny will be a go to scorer next year, Manley will hold down the middle, and Coby/Nas look like they'll be ready from day 1. I want to see Jalek improve as the season progresses and celebrate one of our greatest ever in JB. Whatever happens outside of that is fine.

 

[gary-7]

I think we will see something not sure what but Roy did say in his presser that he needed to make some changes. Gary I agree I like the idea of the bomb squad things are not working very well with what Roy is currently doing and I think he sees it to. What are your thoughts on maybe Felton and Berry on floor at same time in some stretches do you think that would help Felton??

I think going to a default small group opens up more time for Jalek, and yes I can see some time in tandem with JB. We have a lot of capable perimeter players, and if you think about the implcations of less time with a traditional Big on the floor we're gonna need good minutes from Andrew, BRob and Jalek to be successful in the long run.

 

[UNCPJH81]

I gather Seventh is out indefinitely? I've not heard anything.

 

[Steat]

Going against the consensus here. I want to see Manley on the floor more. The Heels drop out of Top 20 today and perhaps that will reduce the pressure on the team.

 

[MJUNC]

I gather Seventh is out indefinitely? I've not heard anything.

If we go small his role will only increase I hope he gets back soon!!

 

[Steat]

Some will not want to hear this but I will say it. Joel Berry needs to improve his shooting percentage. Perhaps he is trying to do to much, but how many games have started where the first 3-4 shots he launches do not go in and the Heels fall behind? If he hits some of those shots the Heels get off to a better start perhaps the Heels win the Wofford and Florida State games.

The first change I would make is inserting Manley into the starting line-up. Heck Roy, waive the damm running drill and make the kid do something else as an offset as a condition to be a starter. One thing for sure, Manley is not going to be lurking out 20-feet away from he basket hoping to hit 20-foot jumpers. Brooks is not a center. Also,Manley is one of the better free throw shooters on the team. Plus, unless I'm missing something there is no superstar big coming through the door next season unless Zion shocks the world. It is best to suffer through the pains developing the bigs now in lieu of dealing with this issue next season. Other than Michigan State, there are no dominant teams this year.

 

[gary-7]

I gather Seventh is out indefinitely? I've not heard anything.

Yes.

 

[gary-7]

Going against the consensus here. I want to see Manley on the floor more. The Heels drop out of Top 20 today and perhaps that will reduce the pressure on the team.

Well, not quite.
#20 on the nose.
But hey, we did help move UVA up to #3, so there's that...

 

[gary-7]

Some will not want to hear this but I will say it. Joel Berry needs to improve his shooting percentage. Perhaps he is trying to do to much,

He's not trying to do too much, he's having to do too much --- and by that I mean he's having to take shots in absence of the offense flowing correctly, and most glaringly, the lack of an inside-out game. That means we aren't getting as many good looks, in particular the rhythm-3s, which are so much higher percentage than created shots.

Bottom line is none of our opponents are concerned about our Bigs right now, and that is a big problem if we're gonna continue with a standard lineup. That's a big reason Roy might go Bomb Squad as a default.

Either way, for this team to be successful JB needs to be our leading scorer and yes, get his FG% back up to par, and an opened-up floor for him is a good start.

 

[dadika13]

Some will not want to hear this but I will say it. Joel Berry needs to improve his shooting percentage.

Of all the problems this team has you choose Joel Berry to pick out?

Man...never change Steat.

 

[bax4444]

Some will not want to hear this but I will say it. Joel Berry needs to improve his shooting percentage. Perhaps he is trying to do to much, but how many games have started where the first 3-4 shots he launches do not go in and the Heels fall behind? If he hits some of those shots the Heels get off to a better start perhaps the Heels win the Wofford and Florida State games.

The first change I would make is inserting Manley into the starting line-up. Heck Roy, waive the damm running drill and make the kid do something else as an offset as a condition to be a starter. One thing for sure, Manley is not going to be lurking out 20-feet away from he basket hoping to hit 20-foot jumpers. Brooks is not a center. Also,Manley is one of the better free throw shooters on the team. Plus, unless I'm missing something there is no superstar big coming through the door next season unless Zion shocks the world. It is best to suffer through the pains developing the bigs now in lieu of dealing with this issue next season. Other than Michigan State, there are no dominant teams this year.

I agree on Manley starting as opposed brooks(If we are going to continue to try and stay relatively "big")

But disagree on JB part of your post. Agains UVA he was literally the entire offense for parts of the game and if not for him we wouldve been down 30 points. This team has some nice complementary pieces but thats the issue-they are mostly role players. I have no problem with him trying to take over games when nothing else is working.

 

[Steat]

He's not trying to do too much, he's having to do too much --- and by that I mean he's having to take shots in absence of the offense flowing correctly, and most glaringly, the lack of an inside-out game. That means we aren't getting as many good looks, in particular the rhythm-3s, which are so much higher percentage than created shots.

Bottom line is none of our opponents are concerned about our Bigs right now, and that is a big problem if we're gonna continue with a standard lineup. That's a big reason Roy might go Bomb Squad as a default.

Either way, for this team to be successful JB needs to be our leading scorer and yes, get his FG% back up to par, and an opened-up floor for him is a good start.

Berry is missing many wide open shots. That has nothing to do with having to do too much. That's on him. He needs to shoot better. As far as bigs are concerned, it will be worst next year if the bigs are not developed now. Start Manley and suffer the pain now. Get a 2-3 seed and hope the Heels go on a run in the Dance,

 

[Steat]

Of all the problems this team has you choose Joel Berry to pick out?

Man...never change Steat.

Stats don't lie. He needs to shoot better. Love Berry...but the blame goes all arround. Why do you think he is in the gym shooting jumpers before the game? He is his biggest critic.

 

[gary-7]

Berry is missing many wide open shots. That has nothing to do with having to do too much. That's on him. He needs to shoot better. As far as bigs are concerned, it will be worst next year if the bigs are not developed now. Start Manley and suffer the pain now. Get a 2-3 seed and hope the Heels go on a run in the Dance,

Berry's issues are contextual, as I explained, and it most certainly does have a lot to do with when the shots are taken.

And no one is saying give up on the Bigs, just change the rotation and thus the expectations. They both may do better coming off the bench (which, in a proper world, is what they would both be doing this season), and that could also benefit them with opponents used to chasing around the Bomb Squad.

 

[gary-7]

Stats don't lie. He needs to shoot better. Love Berry...but the blame goes all arround. Why do you think he is in the gym shooting jumpers before the game? He is his biggest critic.

He does that no matter how he's shooting. That's what JB does. He works. He didn't come back to enjoy a "rocking chair" tour, he came back to win.

 

[dadika13]

Stats don't lie. He needs to shoot better. Love Berry...but the blame goes all arround. Why do you think he is in the gym shooting jumpers before the game? He is his biggest critic.

I'm gonna give UVA's D just a bit of credit here also. They were everywhere.

 

[CanuckChuck]

As far as bigs are concerned, it will be worst next year if the bigs are not developed now. Start Manley and suffer the pain now. Get a 2-3 seed and hope the Heels go on a run in the Dance,

If you think a 2-3 seed is painful you will probably be in for a world of hurt in March. Unless you are talking about an NIT 2 or 3 seed then I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

CC

 

[MJUNC]

Manley is weak as branch water he borderline flops alot. He needs to get stronger be more assertive inside but he does have skill and the strong will come. Roy needs a NOW fix and going small I think is the answer and play the bigs off the bench. I JUST WISH SOMEONE WOULD DUNK THE DAGGUM BALL!!!!

 

[Steat]

Berry's issues are contextual, as I explained, and it most certainly does have a lot to do with when the shots are taken.

And no one is saying give up on the Bigs, just change the rotation and thus the expectations. They both may do better coming off the bench (which, in a proper world, is what they would both be doing this season), and that could also benefit them with opponents used to chasing around the Bomb Squad.

Roy will make some changes and some will agree and some will disagree. I'm not one to go back and forth on an issue. I would rather bow out and take the stance of "Lets agree to disagree". As for Berry, my position is that he needs to improve his shooting percentage. For a player putting up 17-18 shots a game he should be averaging over 20 points a game. The Heels have many other problems that are more critical than Joe's shooting percentage which many have talked about. My position is that the blame goes in many directions and Joel does not get off the hook here. I love myself some Joel, but he does not get off the hook in my book. Equal opportunity blame..

If you think a 2-3 seed is painful you will probably be in for a world of hurt in March. Unless you are talking about an NIT 2 or 3 seed then I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

CC

In another year I would agree with you, but not this year. There are not any dominant teams other than Michigan State. I don't think there are more than 10-12 teams that the Heels could not beat on a neutral floor. I'll take a 3 seed right now. The Heels played a worse game at UVA last year and then beat UVA in the ACC tournament. Too early too write this team off and put them in the NIT. Clemson is in first place in the ACC. How many of us would bet a wad that Clemson will win the ACC regular season title?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

4) Both JB's and Theo's driving lanes will open up

Kenny has also shown more driving skills lately. Could help him, as well.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

against Virginia it looked like we were just passing the ball around the perimeter to see who wanted to take a defended three.

Exactly my thoughts watching that game. When our passing doesn't free anyone up, we need an alternative. Screens?

 

[ProfessorOwl]

It's going to be weird and awkward and different, but you have to play your best players. Start Cam.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I confess that I don't spend much time watching Garrison. But when I do look at him he seems to be giving good effort and not making many mistakes. That may be faint praise but, really, what more did we expect?

Let's face it, Garrison should have been backing up Luke 10-15 minutes a game, while Manley and Huff backed up Tony for similar minutes. That's not how things worked out, but I think we'd be very happy with Garrison (and the other guys) if that had been what happened.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

My concern with the lineup I assume we are talking about is that Luke is a fine stretch 4, but a mediocre 5. Will we lose production from Luke with him in the middle? That would be my guess. So then the question is whether we will get enough more from the other guys to make up that difference? Gary and a few others have made the case that we will get a net improvement from this shift. That sounds right.

The question I wonder about is if Luke can handle that much extra battering (and probably less satisfaction in his own production)? Will playing a lot in the post wear him out by season end? It's a worry.

If our outside shooting and slashing shows a good uptick, then maybe that draws the defense away from Luke and he'll be fine.

 

[gary-7]

Let's face it, Garrison should have been backing up Luke 10-15 minutes a game, while Manley and Huff backed up Tony for similar minutes. That's not how things worked out, but I think we'd be very happy with Garrison (and the other guys) if that had been what happened.

Garrison is indeed playing out of position. His future is as a 4-man and he actually has Stretch abilities. You're right, he makes the fewest mistakes (coach's kid), but he is so danged tentative with the ball (and even catching the ball) inside. His offensive post game needs considerable work. One of the benefits of defaulting to Bomb Squad is that he can back up Luke and face-up some.

 

[CanuckChuck]

In another year I would agree with you, but not this year. There are not any dominant teams other than Michigan State. I don't think there are more than 10-12 teams that the Heels could not beat on a neutral floor. I'll take a 3 seed right now. The Heels played a worse game at UVA last year and then beat UVA in the ACC tournament. Too early too write this team off and put them in the NIT. Clemson is in first place in the ACC. How many of us would bet a wad that Clemson will win the ACC regular season title?

I think you misunderstood my post. You want to take our lumps with Manley thinking it would be painful to get a 2 or 3 seed. This team will have to play it's @ss off to get a 2 or 3. 5-7 is more like the "pain" we will see this year. I said that you will be surprised if you are predicting a 2 or 3 seed in the NIT, meaning they will not be in the NIT.

CC

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

1. Not having 2 bigs in doesn't really matter as our bigs do not really defend anything inside noticably and are basically non-existent on offense besides Manley getting offensive rebounds.

I think this is where the hammer meets the nail. You can give the bigs run all you want, but if they're not contributing, ANY lineup change is an improvement. I think that Garrison is going to be an excellently serviceable player, even as soon as next season.....but, he's bringing nothing (AND I MEAN NOTHING) to the group right now. I would honestly like to see Manley start getting a few more of Brooks' minutes. While, he's more of a defensive liability and not at peak conditioning, he's more of a threat to score. You can't just guard Manley one on one and be pretty positive he won't score.

Obviously, rebounding will be an issue. But, for the most part, our guards are above average rebounders. Playing the bomb squad will also spread out the defense and open up rebounding lanes.

 

[CrazyHeel]

We knew there would be growing pains. I'd still rather take some hits and watch these young men grow and develop than out the door after a first weekend exit from the NCAA tournament.(repeat cycle). I agree with alot of what y'all mentioned. Our offense is designed to go to the Post first and there's not a post threat there so the ball gets "stuck". Too me, our biggest problem is turnovers, clean those up and we will see a big difference.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We knew there would be growing pains.

True.

I think for most of us the surprise was the lack of growing pains early in the season.

Despite missing 6 months of development, Kenny picked up right where he left off and with even better offense.

Despite making a big leap from his freshman to sophomore year, Luke made another big leap as a junior.

Joel came back quickly after injuring his hand.

Brooks was proving serviceable on the front line. Not a lot of offense and still learning the D, but not many mistakes, either.

Manley surprised by having more offensive chops and being quicker than expected. Still a project but farther along than expected.

OTOH, those of us predicting big improvements from Seventh and Brandon were disappointed. Better, but not as much better as hoped.

Meanwhile, Jalek showed flashes, but was having trouble understanding his role.

And, of course, Cam got injured.

So . . . we started the season 10-1 with the only loss being a beating at the hands of a very good MSU. Losing was no shame, but the way we lost was a shock.

Since then we are 2-3, including at least 1 and probably 2 games we should have won.

On paper we should win 5 of our next 6 - with 6-0 being more likely than 4-2. But clearly that only happens if Roy and the guys solve the problems we've been facing recently.

 

[montana_heel]

I am in the Manley camp. I know he isn't as good as he will be but I think going small is not the full time answer.

To use an analogy, it would be like us using zone full time.

I like it once in awhile to give our opponents a different look and longer term, something else to prepare for. I just don't feel it is effective using zone or small ball the majority of the time.

Feel bad for Brooks. Not only is he a freshman, he is being asked to play out of position. He has my gratitude for manning up and doing his best with what is given to him. Looking forward to the progression that he and Manley will have during their careers as well as Huffman.