UNC 2016 vs UNC 2023

[What Would Jesus Do?]

While it's probably more fair to compare 2016 with 2022 - since they were both NCAA Runnerup teams, I'm more interested in comparing that 2016 with the current team. [We could also compare this team with the 2017 Champs - both being after-Runnerup teams - but that hardly seems fair.]

Here are the most used players in 2016, in order of minutes played.

Player, Class	MPG	Pts	Rbs	Assts	3pt%	TS%
Marcus Paige, SR	31.6	12.6	2.5	3.8	35.6	53.7
Joel Berry, JR	30.7	12.8	3.3	3.8	38.2	57.3
Justin Jackson, SO	28.4	12.2	3.9	3.8	29.2	52.8
Brice Johnson, SR	28.0	17.0	10.4	1.5	NA	65.3
Kennedy Meeks, JR	20.6	9.2	5.9	1.1	NA	56.7
Theo Pinson, SO	18.7	4.5	3.2	2.9	29.0	50.9
Isaiah Hicks, JR	18.1	8.9	5.6	0.7	NA	64.9
Nate Britt, JR	15.4	5.4	1.5	1.7	32.1	49.6

And here are the most used players so far this season, in order of MPG.

Player, Class	MPG	Pts	Rbs	Assts	3pt%	TS%
Caleb Love, JR	38.5	16.8	3.4	3.0	31.3	49.7
RJ Davis, JR	34.5	15.8	4.9	3.4	34.6	55.6
Armando Bacot, SR	31.5	17.6	11.3	1.6	0.0	59.6
Leaky Black, GR	30.9	6.8	6.1	1.4	31.1	51.4
Pete Nance, GR	30.0	10.1	6.0	1.5	29.9	54.4
Puff Johnson, JR	15.9	4.3	2.7	0.5	38.5	55.9
Seth Trimble, FR	11.6	2.2	0.9	0.8	20.0	51.2
D'Marco Dunn, SO	11.5	3.2	0.7	0.3	38.5	58.4

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I don't know about you guys but as my brain tries to absorb that I can't help thinking "How were the 2016 guys a shot away from being Champs, while these guys are struggling just to get into the NCAAT?"

Is it the coach? That's my first guess.

Is it the PG (Joel vs RJ)? As much as I really like RJ, that's another edge to the Sixteeners.

Is it having a reliable SG (Marcus vs Caleb)? Yep, I'd give that to the Sixteeners, too.

What do you guys think?

If we swapped out any one of those 3 - Roy for Hubert, JB for RJ, Marcus for Caleb) - would that turn this team into the contender it was expected to be?

 

[gunslingerdick]

First of all, the numbers being so similar is wild when you contrast the two seasons. But I think it's evidence of the old adage that you can pick and choose numbers to fit whatever story you're telling.

The biggest difference between the two teams IMO is the collective basketball IQ. That's from the head coach down to the last guy on the bench.

 

[gobblercalls]

Bacot is the only starter from this version of UNC that would possibly start on the '16 team. Notice that I did not refer to the 23 edition as a "team".

 

[gunslingerdick]

Bacot is the only starter from this version of UNC that would possibly start on the '16 team. Notice that I did not refer to the 23 edition as a "team".

As good as Bacot is, I'm not sure he starts over Meeks. Bacot is better than Meeks in almost every facet of the game. Except one; passing. And it's that skill that made Meeks and that 2016 team successful. Bacot simply does not have the same vision, desire or ability to make the same passes that Meeks did. You could argue that Hubert has stifled Bacot's outlet passing with his slow tempo and preferred halfcourt style, but Bacot wasn't throwing those passes with Roy at the helm either.

 

[gobblercalls]

As good as Bacot is, I'm not sure he starts over Meeks. Bacot is better than Meeks in almost every facet of the game. Except one; passing. And it's that skill that made Meeks and that 2016 team successful. Bacot simply does not have the same vision, desire or ability to make the same passes that Meeks did. You could argue that Hubert has stifled Bacot's outlet passing with his slow tempo and preferred halfcourt style, but Bacot wasn't throwing those passes with Roy at the helm either.

I agree with all of that. That's why I said "possibly". In Roy's system I think it would have been a toss up between Meeks and bacot. I would give Bacot a slight edge.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Bacot is the only starter from this version of UNC that would possibly start on the '16 team. Notice that I did not refer to the 23 edition as a "team".

Flip that around. If you could pick 1 or 2 guys from 2016 and replace the same from 2023, who would you add and who would they replace (replacing like with like as much as possible)?

Since you mentioned Armando, would you replace him with Kennedy?

Would you replace Caleb with Marcus?

Would you replace Leaky with Justin?

Would you replace RJ with JB?

Would you replace Pete with Brice?

A couple of those swaps look like no-brainers to me. But if you could only do 1 or 2, which would you pick, if any?

Keep in mind that a couple of those 2016 players were not in their prime in 2016. So, for example, if you pick Theo you won't be getting him as a senior star.

 

[darrell.shives]

The only players from this current Tarheel group that would even see much playing time would be RJ and maybe Armando if you had the 2016 "TEAM".

 

[notashelbyfan]

Minutes and depth is what sticks out to me!

 

[TarHeelFanWV]

Minutes and depth is what sticks out to me!

Yes.. 16 had quality depth, 23 does not. Just my opinion.

Trimble can't shoot and the others don't play enough to make a difference. Puff is ok at times.

 

[KeeLo]

2016 would have maybe a 2-loss season if placed in today's game.

 

[gobblercalls]

Flip that around. If you could pick 1 or 2 guys from 2016 and replace the same from 2023, who would you add and who would they replace (replacing like with like as much as possible)?

Since you mentioned Armando, would you replace him with Kennedy?

Would you replace Caleb with Marcus?

Would you replace Leaky with Justin?

Would you replace RJ with JB?

Would you replace Pete with Brice?

A couple of those swaps look like no-brainers to me. But if you could only do 1 or 2, which would you pick, if any?

Keep in mind that a couple of those 2016 players were not in their prime in 2016. So, for example, if you pick Theo you won't be getting him as a senior star.

I would take Berry and Brice, and lose Nance and Leaky. Then I'd trash the 4 out 1 in crap and kill everybody with a Dean Smith offense run by a real point guard!

 

[imajericho]

2016 numbers are way better. I don't understand the question.

And it also only includes the offensive side.

What you are failing to see is the TS%. Caleb Love is our highest usage player shots wise and minutes wise. Yet, his TS% was only .1 better than the worst player on the 2016 team. Thats your answer right there. You can't escape that. If Loves TS% was say 55% right now, we would have only 2-4 losses total right now.

 

[Quest4Seven]

still wild to me that Hubert played and coached in a system that was successful for almost 60 years and withstood almost every new rule and new trend the game went through and immediately reverted from it his first season as a coach lol

 

[TVJ]

2016 numbers are way better. I don't understand the question.

And it also only includes the offensive side.

What you are failing to see is the TS%. Caleb Love is our highest usage player shots wise and minutes wise. Yet, his TS% was only .1 better than the worst player on the 2016 team. Thats your answer right there. You can't escape that. If Loves TS% was say 55% right now, we would have only 2-4 losses total right now.

What I saw is that only two players on those two teams shot better than 60% FTs. I don't have stats in front of me, but that strikes me as odd for a quality D1 college team. It didn't seem hurt the '16 team much, but it sure has ben a difference maker this year.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The only players from this current Tarheel group that would even see much playing time would be RJ and maybe Armando if you had the 2016 "TEAM".

Maybe Caleb if you were desperate at the end of the game. But probably not since they had Marcus. Considering who else they had, who would you sit down to insert Caleb?

Besides, I don't think that team had very many games where they were that desperate. Glancing at the 2016 games, Caleb might play against Northern Iowa - because Marcus missed that game. Although even then I might prefer RJ as my all-game substitute. Could RJ and JB play well together? Both short, but I bet they'd be fine otherwise.

Maybe the Texas game, where we lost a squeaker in the last few minutes?

Marcus had off games in the close losses to Louisville and Duke that year. Maybe those would be Caleb time?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

2016 numbers are way better. I don't understand the question.

And it also only includes the offensive side.

What you are failing to see is the TS%. Caleb Love is our highest usage player shots wise and minutes wise. Yet, his TS% was only .1 better than the worst player on the 2016 team. Thats your answer right there. You can't escape that. If Loves TS% was say 55% right now, we would have only 2-4 losses total right now.

Yep. The numbers don't look all that different until you look at the TS% column. Even the 3pt% column doesn't stand out - until you notice that 2016's best shooters played a lot of minutes, while our best shooters (on paper) don't start and play half the minutes or less.

So here's a question: If you were confident that Puff and D'Marco would continue to hit 38.5% of their shots, would you start them? Who would you move to the bench? Would it make positive difference?

OK that was 3 questions. Sue me.

 

[imajericho]

Yep. The numbers don't look all that different until you look at the TS% column. Even the 3pt% column doesn't stand out - until you notice that 2016's best shooters played a lot of minutes, while our best shooters (on paper) don't start and play half the minutes or less.

So here's a question: If you were confident that Puff and D'Marco would continue to hit 38.5% of their shots, would you start them? Who would you move to the bench? Would it make positive difference?

OK that was 3 questions. Sue me.

Nickel and Puff should be starting, if you want the best offensive results.

Nance shouldn't be starting regardless, he doesn't help that much defensively or rebounding wise either.

 

[Bubspub88]

Is it the coach? That's my first guess.

Is it the PG (Joel vs RJ)? As much as I really like RJ, that's another edge to the Sixteeners.

Is it having a reliable SG (Marcus vs Caleb)? Yep, I'd give that to the Sixteeners, too.

It's the players' mentality. 2016 UNC walked while 2023 talks. Berry or Johnson would destroy the current players in the locker room for the lack of effort on the court. That 2016 team came back with a purpose because they felt they had something to prove. This team came back thinking all they had to do was show up.

 

[Mrs.Jeans15]

Lmao...this team isn't half as talented as that team.

There is no comparison.


Biggest crime in UNC history is that Marcus Paige didnt win a championship.

 

[superstar57]

Maturity of Paige's game over Caleb is huge (talent wise Caleb may have an advantage).

Two big men in Meeks and Hicks. I'll take Mando over both individually, but collectively Meeks and Hicks were good.

Justin Jackson being a consistent three point shooter, but as a sophomore still was a little inconsistent . I guess Puff and Nance compare to a sophomore JJ. Jackson was just a better player,. Still hoping Puff gets it going , he could compare to JJ if he just can stay healthy.

Sophomore Pinson vs Grad student Black. I rate it even. Black possibly a better defender than a sophomore Pinson.

Brice Johnson as a Senior was really really good. I guess Bacot compares. Meeks and Hicks. Meeks was just about there as a junior, and Hicks was showing flashes, but we have no comparison to them on current squad.

RJ or Berry as a Junior. I'm going RJ. I love Berry's leadership, but that season he had Paige who was our leader.

Sharpe went pro and what's he's name went to Auburn. That is what is hurting us right now.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Maturity of Paige's game over Caleb is huge (talent wise Caleb may have an advantage).

Two big men in Meeks and Hicks. I'll take Mando over both individually, but collectively Meeks and Hicks were good.

Justin Jackson being a consistent three point shooter, but as a sophomore still was a little inconsistent . I guess Puff and Nance compare to a sophomore JJ. Jackson was just a better player,. Still hoping Puff gets it going , he could compare to JJ if he just can stay healthy.

Sophomore Pinson vs Grad student Black. I rate it even. Black possibly a better defender than a sophomore Pinson.

Brice Johnson as a Senior was really really good. I guess Bacot compares. Meeks and Hicks. Meeks was just about there as a junior, and Hicks was showing flashes, but we have no comparison to them on current squad.

RJ or Berry as a Junior. I'm going RJ. I love Berry's leadership, but that season he had Paige who was our leader.

Sharpe went pro and what's he's name went to Auburn. That is what is hurting us right now.

I agree with nearly all of that. I'd happily add Berry to this team, but I'd also keep (and start) RJ.

So, yes, I'd swap Caleb for JB even though that does make us even shorter in the back court. I just think we'd be better starting both JB and RJ because there's no quit or pout in either of them.

That will more than make up for inches nearly all the time. At least that's what I tell my girlfriend.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If I can only pick one from 2016, I'd go with Brice. He not only had a great year, but that's an obvious need for this team.

I wonder how good Hicks might be in Hubert's system. I mean some of us are bitching about Hubert's system, but maybe a player like Hicks would thrive in it? Still taking Brice, but I'm curious.

 

[gunslingerdick]

If I can only pick one from 2016, I'd go with Brice. He not only had a great year, but that's an obvious need for this team.

I wonder how good Hicks might be in Hubert's system. I mean some of us are bitching about Hubert's system, but maybe a player like Hicks would thrive in it? Still taking Brice, but I'm curious.

I don't think Hicks thrives in Hubert's system. Hicks was a good athlete but wasn't a guy I'm parking in the corner for a kick out 3. By that same measure, Brice isn't either. I hesitate to make definitive statements simply because I'm not entirely sure what Hubert's offense is supposed to do. I know we were successful with Manek. And it was because Manek was such a threat to shoot the deep ball that it opened up the court and allowed our two guards to drive and finish or drive and kick. Brice and Hicks aren't guys you want taking those deep shots. And because there's not much of a threat from them, the same current problems exist with those guys - not enough room in the lane for our guards to penetrate.

Justin Jackson was the best shooter of the guys on that 2016 team. Or at least he became the best shooter but he still struggled a bit that year. But I still think he and Berry are the two most valuable replacements from the 2016 team to join the 2023 team. Berry for his leadership, ability to facilitate and his ability to make shots and JJ for his shot making ability.