Which Freshmen Start Next Season?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

My sense over the years is that Roy is perfectly willing to start a good freshman. And he will start more than one if he clearly has great ones - or great need. But I don't think he likes to start more than one.

No freshmen were regular starters this past season. Nor the season before that. Nor the one before that. Justin was a starter as a freshman in 2015. Nate started a lot of games in 2014.

You have to go back to the 2nd half of 2011 for the last time Roy started 2 frosh (Harrison and Kendall).

So . . . if he only starts 1 frosh, will it be Nassir, Coby or Rechon?

The thing is, we don't really need a starter at SF or SG because we have Cam and Kenny. And I haven't heard anyone suggest that Leaky should start at point for a long time.

If we are still playing small ball most of the time, then Nassir steps in to replace Theo. Or Cam replaces Theo, and Nassir fills in. However you want to look at it. Or if Nassir isn't ready, maybe it's Coby. But that's going pretty small.

Most of us are hoping our bigs make enough strides in the off-season that we don't need to play small so much. It's good to be able to play small when we want to or need to. But we don't want to be forced into it again next year.

 

[Dude2134]

There’s no way that Nassir doesn’t start next year

 

[tarheel0910]

There’s no way that Nassir doesn’t start next year

Depends on if Roy goes small or not. If he goes back to having a big, Little is probably coming off the bench. Roy isn't going to start him over Luke or Cam. He'll get at least 20 minutes if he doesn't start though.

 

[pln2013]

Nas should absolutely start, regardless of whether we go small and regardless of whether Cam returns.

Coby should probably start as well, unless Seventh has an incredible summer. We can't afford to have a PG who can't create offense.

 

[tarheel0910]

Nas should absolutely start, regardless of whether we go small and regardless of whether Cam returns.

Coby should probably start as well, unless Seventh has an incredible summer. We can't afford to have a PG who can't create offense.

Roy's definition of who should start is different than most. Nas has more talent, but experience and defense are more important to Roy. Little will get plenty of burn, but as long as Cam is here Little won't start in a regular lineup.

 

[uncfan in ky]

 

[TheFamily22]

Roy's definition of who should start is different than most. Nas has more talent, but experience and defense are more important to Roy. Little will get plenty of burn, but as long as Cam is here Little won't start in a regular lineup.

I under stand that under Roy, you have to bust your butt on the floor and play D and earn your time. I don't disagree with that, but with what happen with Jalek and the little bit of playing time he received while here, how he didn't produce, I think it's very important for our future recruiting that Nas starts and or gets a lot of playing time. Coby as well. If both come in and only see the floor for a few minutes a game, you can forget about future top 25 prospect wanting to come here. You might even be able to forget about top 50.

 

[RP12]

I think we open with Seventh, KW, Little, Luke, and Sterling as the starters. Coby plays 15-20 mins early and hopefully more later. I think Cam moves on.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Be nice to make a list of who everybody thinks will start then wait and see just how accurate that is. Keeping in mind who starts the season may not be who starts ACC time.

 

[heels05champs]

Keeping in mind who starts the season may not be who starts ACC time.

This is the key. I’m willing to bet that the starters in conference play are different than the starters game one.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Who I think should be starters:

White
Williams
Little
Maye
Manley

Who probably will be starters:

Woods
Williams
Robinson (Johnson if he stays)
Maye
Manley

 

[gunslingerdick]

I'd be shocked if any freshman started. It's just not Roy's M.O. He values experience and leadership over talent.

 

[TheFamily22]

If Robinson starts over Little. we are in terrible shape.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Who I think should be starters:

White
Williams
Little
Maye
Manley

I'm not picking on you @Hark_The_Sound_2010 but why do we always assume that a highly ranked freshman can play at a high level immediately? Because some guys do it at other schools? Felton was a nightmare. I remember people thinking he was going to push Joel and play along side Joel and we'd have to find a way to get him 20+ minutes per game. Coby and Nas might not be ready. We just never know. But it's funny how in this day and age we assume that top ranked freshman are going to come in and take over whereas 25 years ago we all assumed any freshman - regardless of rank - was going to struggle adjusting to the college game.

I'd like to see a list of 5 star recruits over the last 10 years that started the first game of their freshman years for their school. @SJung851, @pln2013, @What Would Jesus Do? might feel like researching that.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I'm not picking on you @Hark_The_Sound_2010 but why do we always assume that a highly ranked freshman can play at a high level immediately? Because some guys do it at other schools? Felton was a nightmare. I remember people thinking he was going to push Joel and play along side Joel and we'd have to find a way to get him 20+ minutes per game. Coby and Nas might not be ready. We just never know. But it's funny how in this day and age we assume that top ranked freshman are going to come in and take over whereas 25 years ago we all assumed any freshman - regardless of rank - was going to struggle adjusting to the college game.

I'd like to see a list of 5 star recruits over the last 10 years that started the first game of their freshman years for their school. @SJung851, @pln2013, @What Would Jesus Do? might feel like researching that.

Just eye balling off ESPN's rankings, over the last 10 years I would say maybe 90% of top 15 guys start from day 1. But that's pretty expected since Duke and Kentucky have owned that part of recruiting. I think the only top 5 kid in the last 5 years that didn't start was Harry Giles. The only top 10 kids that didn't start if I'm recalling correctly: James Michael McAdoo, Theo Pinson, Frank Jackson?

Generally around the top 20-25 are 5 stars and after the top 15, it's not as auto start... but vast majority do.

 

[tarheel0910]

I under stand that under Roy, you have to bust your butt on the floor and play D and earn your time. I don't disagree with that, but with what happen with Jalek and the little bit of playing time he received while here, how he didn't produce, I think it's very important for our future recruiting that Nas starts and or gets a lot of playing time. Coby as well. If both come in and only see the floor for a few minutes a game, you can forget about future top 25 prospect wanting to come here. You might even be able to forget about top 50.

I don't think Jalek's situation is really relevant in this conversation. And just because Nas doesn't start, doesn't mean he doesn't play much. Look for him to get 20-25 minutes between the 3 and 4 if Cam stays.

Robinson (Johnson if he stays)

That won't happen no matter what Cam does. That will be one of the few instances a freshman would jump an upperclassman.

Generally around the top 20-25 are 5 stars and after the top 15, it's not as auto start... but vast majority do.

You have to take into account the roster though. Those guys start at UK and duke because there is no one else on the roster. Tony Bradley would have started for a majority of ACC schools his freshman year. He didn't start because there were better options in front of him.

 

[tarheel0910]

Be nice to make a list of who everybody thinks will start then wait and see just how accurate that is. Keeping in mind who starts the season may not be who starts ACC time.

We can just pin this thread. I promise not to gloat when it turns out I'm right.

 

[pln2013]

I'm not picking on you @Hark_The_Sound_2010 but why do we always assume that a highly ranked freshman can play at a high level immediately? Because some guys do it at other schools? Felton was a nightmare. I remember people thinking he was going to push Joel and play along side Joel and we'd have to find a way to get him 20+ minutes per game. Coby and Nas might not be ready. We just never know. But it's funny how in this day and age we assume that top ranked freshman are going to come in and take over whereas 25 years ago we all assumed any freshman - regardless of rank - was going to struggle adjusting to the college game.

I'd like to see a list of 5 star recruits over the last 10 years that started the first game of their freshman years for their school. @SJung851, @pln2013, @What Would Jesus Do? might feel like researching that.

Took a quick look (and probably screwed a few things up).

2017: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Porter was injured, Robinson left the team)
2016: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Giles never got healthy, Maker skipped college)
2015: 9 of the top-10 were starters (Diallo was basically a bust in college)
2014: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Mudiay skipped college, Alexander was a bust)

So over the last 4 years, only 2 active & healthy top-10 players didn't start.

The starting rate goes down a bit if you extend it to the top-25, but most of them start, too.

In 2017, 10 of the next 15 started. 2 of the 5 that didn't were ineligible (Bowen and Preston).

In 2016, 8 of the next 15 started. 1 of the 7 that didn't was ineligible (Spellman), 1 skipped college (Ferguson), and 1 played starter minutes (Jackson).

Conclusion: we can and should expect highly-ranked freshmen (especially top-10 freshman) to be major contributors early. Felton was the exception (and one about whom we were warned), not the rule.

 

[dadika13]

Who probably will be starters:

Woods
Williams
Robinson (Johnson if he stays)
Maye
Manley

Thanks man, needed a laugh this morning.

 

[pln2013]

Took a quick look (and probably screwed a few things up).

2017: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Porter was injured, Robinson left the team)
2016: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Giles never got healthy, Maker skipped college)
2015: 9 of the top-10 were starters (Diallo was basically a bust in college)
2014: 8 of the top-10 were starters (Mudiay skipped college, Alexander was a bust)

So over the last 4 years, only 2 active & healthy top-10 players didn't start.

The starting rate goes down a bit if you extend it to the top-25, but most of them start, too.

In 2017, 10 of the next 15 started. 2 of the 5 that didn't were ineligible (Bowen and Preston).

In 2016, 8 of the next 15 started. 1 of the 7 that didn't was ineligible (Spellman), 1 skipped college (Ferguson), and 1 played starter minutes (Jackson).

Conclusion: we can and should expect highly-ranked freshmen (especially top-10 freshman) to be major contributors early. Felton was the exception (and one about whom we were warned), not the rule.

To connect the above to our team next year --- it'd be one thing if we had strong returning players at PG and small-ball PF next year. But those positions are wide open, so it's reasonable to expect our highly-regarded incoming players to win those jobs.

 

[TheFamily22]

I don't think Jalek's situation is really relevant in this conversation. And just because Nas doesn't start, doesn't mean he doesn't play much. Look for him to get 20-25 minutes between the 3 and 4 if Cam stays.

I would disagree. The situation in what happened with Jalek off the court is not relevant but his play on the court is. It was even called out by that future turd that was a friend of his. If top prospects see that Nas and White aren't getting playing time or producing, they will take note. Other coaches will point out how Jalek, Nas and White were top prospects but were not able to get on the court and produce. We can't afford for Nas and White to come in and not produce or receive playing time. For the state of the next year and for our future recruiting.

 

[tarheel0910]

I would disagree. The situation in what happened with Jalek off the court is not relevant but his play on the court is. It was even called out by that future turd that was a friend of his. If top prospects see that Nas and White aren't getting playing time or producing, they will take note. Other coaches will point out how Jalek, Nas and White were top prospects but were not able to get on the court and produce. We can't afford for Nas and White to come in and not produce or receive playing time. For the state of the next year and for our future recruiting.

Felton was never seen as a threat to be a OAD, can't miss talent. Hell, nobody even talked about him after he left the team. Some dumbass on twitter means nothing. Nas is considered a can't miss OAD player. He is completely different than Felton. And again, he will get plenty of playing time. He just won't start if Cam is back. Coby isn't see as a can't miss OAD player either. He's closer to the Felton mold and no one outside of the program expects him to come in and get 30 minutes a game. He will probably get major minutes and could very well end up starting by ACC play depending on how Woods performs.

 

[pln2013]

If we decided to play big, I don't think Nas would start over Cam, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did.

This year's team lost because it couldn't hit a shot, but the biggest problem during the year was defense - and that's a real concern next year, too. A lineup with Cam and Luke is highly unlikely to enter "elite" territory. Nas will have growing pains on defense (fouls will be a problem), but his defensive ceiling is incredibly high.

[ White / Williams / Little / Maye / Brooks ] would give a balance of offense and defense.

Cam will certainly play a lot if he returns, of course.

 

[TheFamily22]

Felton was never seen as a threat to be a OAD, can't miss talent. Hell, nobody even talked about him after he left the team. Some dumbass on twitter means nothing. Nas is considered a can't miss OAD player. He is completely different than Felton. And again, he will get plenty of playing time. He just won't start if Cam is back. Coby isn't see as a can't miss OAD player either. He's closer to the Felton mold and no one outside of the program expects him to come in and get 30 minutes a game. He will probably get major minutes and could very well end up starting by ACC play depending on how Woods performs.

I get what you're saying but I'm not talking about OAD players, I'm talking about top 25, top 50 recruits. All three guys are or were 5 star players in the top 25 (for the exception of Felton, I believe). If White and Nas don't get that playing time or produce, I just think it will be harder to get those guys because other recruiters are going to be able to use that against us.

The guy on twitter doesn't mean anything to us, but his word carries more weight with his peers than our words do. That kid doesn't know or understand what was going on but the way he saw it is similar to how most of his peers are perceiving things as well.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Thanks man, needed a laugh this morning.

Ya, I'm laughing too... until it actually happens, in which case I'll probably cry

 

[tarheel0910]

I get what you're saying but I'm not talking about OAD players

Well, you keep bringing up Nas so that would indicate you are talking about them.

I'm talking about top 25, top 50 recruits.

And most of those recruits in the 25-50 range don't expect to start immediately. At least not the ones that have come here.

The guy on twitter doesn't mean anything to us, but his word carries more weight with his peers than our words do.

Really? I haven't read where he carries a lot of weight. I guess Nas isn't aware of his thoughts.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

it's funny how in this day and age we assume that top ranked freshman are going to come in and take over whereas 25 years ago we all assumed any freshman - regardless of rank - was going to struggle adjusting to the college game.

I agree. It's also true, I think, that some teams get the more-ready players. And we aren't typically one of those teams. We've gotten some great, high-ranked players over the years. And some looked good right away. But many needed a year or 2 and even some of the best needed to be "hidden" at first - coming off the bench so their flaws would be less obvious.

I've always thought one of Roy's skills was finding and signing those high-ranked guys who needed some development time. Unfortunately, these days, most of the top players think they are OAD. And the ones who really are usually land at Duke, UK, AZ and so on. Even worse, those high-ranked players who are NOT OAD, nevertheless choose UK or other teams over us - and often fair poorly because of it.

 

[superstar57]

2nd half of season correct? Colby White, only because I am still uncertain about Woods (still believe in him) being able to handle starter minutes. White might be a SG, but nobody is replacing KW at SG and with his defense it will be hard to keep him off the court. If you start Woods Kenny is going to have to carry the back court and with the minutes he will have to log no matter who starts at PG, I think White may be able take more pressure off KW than Woods. I think Seventh starts the season however.

Little is the odd one, the two positions he can play have Cam and Maye plus Robinson is a solid player also. Think Little might become better than Robinson by second half, but not Cam or Maye.

 

[Tom79]

Of the incoming freshmen, Nassir could, possibly, start. I suppose we will know more after some of our summer reports.

 

[Steat]

Be nice to make a list of who everybody thinks will start then wait and see just how accurate that is. Keeping in mind who starts the season may not be who starts ACC time.

Mikey,
I would go one further step and pin the thread until the season starts next year.

 

[RoseHeel]

View embedded media

Hopefully he means outside of EJ and Maultsby

 

[dadika13]

Hopefully he means outside of EJ and Maultsby

"On the next episode of ridiculous things said on THR"

If we land Maultsby we have our 2018 PG.

 

[gthreadgill7929]

We’ll have a luxury if Nas doesn’t start from Day 1. That dude has a special kinda talent and we’d be crazy to overlook that. I think K Dub, Luke, and Nas are sure fire starters. 7th and Coby duel it out for PG and that 5th spot all depends on what Cam does. If he returns it might be worth it to play small. If he doesn’t come back, it’ll be either Ster or Brooks. Either way, we gotta good team on our hands next year and we might be able to add to it still.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

"On the next episode of ridiculous things said on THR"

If we land Maultsby we have our 2018 PG.

You just cant help yourself can you? Luke didnt teach you anything?

 

[CTTarHeels23]

I am shocked at the people who say Little can't start day one. Come on People he is the best Player we have had come in since Harrison Barnes and Barnes Started Game one in 2010 vs Lipscomb:

North Carolina (1-0)
Starters MP
Larry Drew 29
Harrison Barnes 27
Tyler Zeller 25
John Henson 25
Dexter Strickland 23

 

[Dude2134]

You just cant help yourself can you? Luke didnt teach you anything?

But Luke was a 4 star prospect getting recruited by very good college teams like Clemson and others while Maultsby isn’t even ranked and has no offers from quality schools

 

[tarheel0910]

I am shocked at the people who say Little can't start day one. Come on People he is the best Player we have had come in since Harrison Barnes and Barnes Started Game one in 2010 vs Lipscomb:

North Carolina (1-0)
Starters MP
Larry Drew 29
Harrison Barnes 27
Tyler Zeller 25
John Henson 25
Dexter Strickland 23

Barnes had no one in front of him.

 

[CTTarHeels23]

Barnes had no one in front of him.

Fair point but I think he is better than Williams and Johnson. I think he would have started on this years team! Little will be one of Roy's best players, a potential NBA All Star, not sure how you keep him on the bench, and not start him for any games next season!

 

[heelfan1961]

Fair point but I think he is better than Williams and Johnson. I think he would have started on this years team! Little will be one of Roy's best players, a potential NBA All Star, not sure how you keep him on the bench, and not start him for any games next season!

Pretty easy! How many games did Marvin start? Little can get starter minutes as the 6th man coming off the bench. Didn't seem to keep Marvin from showing his skills and being able to leave after 1 year.

 

[tarheel0910]

Fair point but I think he is better than Williams and Johnson. I think he would have started on this years team! Little will be one of Roy's best players, a potential NBA All Star, not sure how you keep him on the bench, and not start him for any games next season!

He doesn't play the same position as KW, so that doesn't matter. From a pure talent point of view he is better than Cam, but Roy values experience and defense. If Cam is back, Little won't start but he will get plenty of burn. People are getting too fixated on the word starting. Getting 20-25 minutes of playing time is enough to shine. I think a good situational comparison would be Jawad and Marvin. Marvin was more talented, but Jawad got the start. Marvin still averaged 11.3 ppg and 6.6 rpg in 22 mpg.