By dust settling I mean after we have made the NIL offers we're willing to pay to keep each player - or, conversely, after we have encouraged people to move on.
Who Do You Expect to Return?
- Thread starter What Would Jesus Do?
- Start date
A couple of weeks ago I expected Drake to return. Now that he's playing his natural position, I'm less sanguine. He should definitely enter the draft to see what they say - but might still return.
Who should enter the draft - for real or to test the waters?
For real
Ian
To test the waters
Elliot
Drake
Seth
Jalen
For real
Ian
To test the waters
Elliot
Drake
Seth
Jalen
Who should think about transferring?
Cade
Jalen
Seth
Elliot
I don't actually expect Jalen, Seth or Elliot to enter the portal, but they might want to think about it. Unless Hubert has plans to give Cade a bigger role, he should leave.
Elliot and Seth have starting roles next season. Theirs to lose, at a minimum.
Seth briefly entered the portal last season and then changed his mind. He's having a good year, so I imagine he's happy here. But will we offer as much NIL as other schools? And if he enters the draft, will he stay in the draft?
Cade
Jalen
Seth
Elliot
I don't actually expect Jalen, Seth or Elliot to enter the portal, but they might want to think about it. Unless Hubert has plans to give Cade a bigger role, he should leave.
Elliot and Seth have starting roles next season. Theirs to lose, at a minimum.
Seth briefly entered the portal last season and then changed his mind. He's having a good year, so I imagine he's happy here. But will we offer as much NIL as other schools? And if he enters the draft, will he stay in the draft?
No way you can have a starting backcourt of Seth and EC….They can’t make shots…
With all the talk about increased NIL, I assume we won't lose anyone we actually want to a competing school. But is that true?
While I agree both are hesitant jump shooters from trey, both have shown that they can and do score. I think we do need a quality back up PG that can play 20mins because Cadeau has not shown he can stay away from foul trouble, I can't assume he magically will as a Jr. And even if some how he does we have no guarantee right now he will stay at UNC, momma does not seem real happy and you know how that works out many times.
Keep this in mind, we have a couple freshmen on the way that committed before Wilson did. Denis is nice but I think he may take a year or 2 but Derrick Dixon, that kid can shoot, I think he may surprise a lot of folks early in.
Seth has gotten quite good. But will he still be that good when he's being targeted as a starter? I'm betting on Seth, but time will tell.
If we land a starter-quality big - or 2 - will JWash and Lubin both stick around? Will they be happy here coming off the bench behind Wilson and the portal guy(s)?
I don't want to lose either of them, but I can understand if they want to check the grass on the other side of the hill.
I don't want to lose either of them, but I can understand if they want to check the grass on the other side of the hill.
If the GM and Front Office does their job, we'll be getting a starting center from the portal. Which would mean both Lubin and Washington would be fighting for back up center minutes their senior year.
What a great topic ? I was just thinking about that last night. I believe both Powell and Jackson should go the NBA camp find out what the experts think about their game and when the smoke clears Powell will come back. As much as Lubin has improved since the start of the new year I would also like to see a horse be brought in to play in the paint.
Yea you hit on a lot of things I was thinking, my gut says Elliot transfers somewhere, his mom is quite vocal on social media and you can just tell all the negative stuff has rubbed her the wrong way. I think he hits the portal
If that's true, I hope he does transfer. And, good luck to whatever coach has to deal with some overbearing parent that is living vicariously through their child.
I hope Trimble comes back. He has grit and drive. Same with James Brown. This group, for whatever reason, has not meshed very well overall... many players playing out-of-position for so long. RJ and Withers have no more time left. Powell and Jackson will go pro. Whoever is left isn't going to make a huge difference if those in charge get the right players from the portal.
Trimble has already entered the portal once. Now he's lost his starting spot. His brother bailed on UNC after his junior season. I'm surprised so many here are confident he'll be back at UNC.
She’s drama for sure. I’d say see you later and next up.
She's a lovely lady, she is a huge supporter of every player on the roster, and she hasn't made a social media post in nearly a month.
So no, she isn't "drama for sure."
It is a crazy world when we have to sweat out if Jack or Drake come back for next season at UNC, if I were a team owner and my GM came to me advising we take either guy, I would very likely fire him on the spot. But in this crazy world we live in Jack will very likely be drafted 1st round and Drake could be. I actually, once they have grown up and physically matured, I think Drake is the better talent, he can play the 2 or the 3 in he league, I see Jack more as a 2. I think for both it will be 2-3yrs if not longer before they really come in to their game that could help a NBA team be better, by then they may only have the option yr with you and then it is off to the mega bucks 2nd contact on the open market. Yeah, you stash them in the DL, yet they could develop for free in the NCAA, why pay millions for something you can get for free?
I think Drake comes back, he should test the water for sure, I think the NBA needs to see him shoot more consistently, he is not as offensively polished as Jack. Jack should come back but it doesn't look, at least right now, that he will. I suspect we get Seth, JWash, James Brown, and High back. WE will absolutely go after a physical big center from the portal, I saw FSU with 3 guys that I would not mind any of them playing for us (Ewin, Bol Bowen, Maluch), I would get involved with all 3 of them (especially with Hamilton calling it a career after this season). Just checked, Ewen is a Jr, Bol Bowen is a soph, and Maluch is a freshman, I would take any 2 of that trio, I would prefer Ewen and Maluch. Getting 2 would likely cost us either High or JWash, more likely High but who knows, I think I would take that trade off even if it cost us both.
Another kid that if he has remaining eligibility is McNeely, the Jr from UVa (wonder if he could back up Cadeau), stack him and the Dixon kid we already have on the way and we have some nice jump shooting. Could we get by as a back up for Cadeau with any of McNeely, Dixon, or Denis, if not there are usually a lot of PGs that can get us by? With Wilson already on the way to us, considering JWash, High, a portal guy, and James Brown, there may not be enough room for Lubin or Tyson (unless Tyson can play the 3, he has been at the 4 all season so far). I think Lubin has elevated his stock this season to the extent he could get a nice package in the portal and get the minutes he should want.
I think Drake comes back, he should test the water for sure, I think the NBA needs to see him shoot more consistently, he is not as offensively polished as Jack. Jack should come back but it doesn't look, at least right now, that he will. I suspect we get Seth, JWash, James Brown, and High back. WE will absolutely go after a physical big center from the portal, I saw FSU with 3 guys that I would not mind any of them playing for us (Ewin, Bol Bowen, Maluch), I would get involved with all 3 of them (especially with Hamilton calling it a career after this season). Just checked, Ewen is a Jr, Bol Bowen is a soph, and Maluch is a freshman, I would take any 2 of that trio, I would prefer Ewen and Maluch. Getting 2 would likely cost us either High or JWash, more likely High but who knows, I think I would take that trade off even if it cost us both.
Another kid that if he has remaining eligibility is McNeely, the Jr from UVa (wonder if he could back up Cadeau), stack him and the Dixon kid we already have on the way and we have some nice jump shooting. Could we get by as a back up for Cadeau with any of McNeely, Dixon, or Denis, if not there are usually a lot of PGs that can get us by? With Wilson already on the way to us, considering JWash, High, a portal guy, and James Brown, there may not be enough room for Lubin or Tyson (unless Tyson can play the 3, he has been at the 4 all season so far). I think Lubin has elevated his stock this season to the extent he could get a nice package in the portal and get the minutes he should want.
I don't mean for this to be insulting toward the kid but I don't really know any other way to say this and it not read worse than I intend it to, Cadeau does strike me more as a momma's boy. Emotionally he is really quick to react when things get tough and he seems to brood over things rather than just push on. That is just the sense I get...
I could see that but I was a mommas boy and didn’t act like that lol.
What I am trying to say is hard to express, maybe I could call it in reference to his being emotional more of a feminine trait than male trait, no I am not calling him gay or anything like that, just trying to express something hard to put in to words and not offend anyone, especially Cadeau himself.
I hope Drake comes back after he tests the waters....Ian is gone and hope also Seth returns. EC....who knows he makes great plays and then stupid ones. He has no consistent outside shot and is small..... no clue on the rest of the team.
He acts like a women would acts on their period…Very emotional….There you go…
Heavy on the bol Bowen… Elliott is one of the few players on this roster who play with fire night in and night out.
Drake is the one that we all want back the most. And I think he's the most likely returner unless he gets a high draft grade.
I'd take Seth and Cadeau back but I agree with the poaster above that said we can't start those two guys together. But Seth, while losing his starting position, has the second most MPG on the team behind RJ. Maybe he's content enough with the minutes and not needing to be a starter.
Of course I'd like to have Ian back but I suspect he's leaving.
We will need a top flight center and top flight shooter. Everyone else can go.
Cadeau
portal shooter
Drake
Caleb
portal center
Seth
Washington or Lubin (I think we keep one)
Dixon
Dennis
Brown
I'd take Seth and Cadeau back but I agree with the poaster above that said we can't start those two guys together. But Seth, while losing his starting position, has the second most MPG on the team behind RJ. Maybe he's content enough with the minutes and not needing to be a starter.
Of course I'd like to have Ian back but I suspect he's leaving.
We will need a top flight center and top flight shooter. Everyone else can go.
Cadeau
portal shooter
Drake
Caleb
portal center
Seth
Washington or Lubin (I think we keep one)
Dixon
Dennis
Brown
Yeah, that was my point, too. I don't see a strong reason why they would want to leave. Lubin just got here and is doing OK. Jalen could have left any time but hasn't. But, as you say, if we pick up a genuine starter or 2 up front, will they still be happy to stick around?
Both JWash and Lubin are averaging a bit above 17 mpg. But while Jalen has started more than half the games, he hasn't started recently; whereas Lubin has started the last 9 games. As you might expect, Lubin's average over those last 9 games has risen, to 21 mpg; whereas Jalen's mpg dropped a tad to 15.
Is it fair to think that Hubert has decided Jalen is better used coming off the bench? If so, and if Jalen would rather start, he may have to leave. He'll almost certainly have to leave if we get a top big or 2 from the portal, if he wants to start.
I don't have any inside info, but I don't see any body language or other behavior that makes me think they are unhappy here. So . . . who knows?
Can someone remind me of the portal rules on timing?
I assume there's a deadline for entering the portal. Suppose Hubert lands a great center and that makes Jalen or Lubin want to look elsewhere . . . but the window for entering the portal has closed. Are they just out of luck?
I assume there's a deadline for entering the portal. Suppose Hubert lands a great center and that makes Jalen or Lubin want to look elsewhere . . . but the window for entering the portal has closed. Are they just out of luck?
Who backs up Cadeau when he gets in to foul trouble, when he picks up that second foul 8min in to the first half? I am not confident either Denis or Dawkins would be ready for that, they are combos. Not comfortable at this point having Seth back up Cadeau, had Seth been used as a PG when he first came to us he would have been fine but his skill development has been for other positions. I think we do need to portal in a PG that we are comfortable can give us 20+ minutes on a given night or at least 10mins a night on the regular.
Honestly, I would love to see us bring in 2 centers, one that could start now if we needed him to and another that may need more development. Example, 6'11" 235lbs Ewen and 7'1" 220lb Maluch from FSU. Throw them against each other in off season pick ups and in to pre-season let them battle it out, the cream rises. If that means we lose Lubin and/or JWash then so be it.
As for a shooter, I think we can be very selective, if just the right guy does not show up I am very comfortable with Seth starting beside Cadeau. Seth may not be the considered shooter that RJ is but he does give us a few things that RJ is not great at now. Of course Seth's defense is a major upgrade to RJ, game is not just about scoring, it is as important the other team does not score. Seth gives us much better shot selection, as the saying goes, many times a missed bad shot is the other teams first pass in their fast break. IN addition, by any set of eyes Seth's shooting as well as over all scoring has seen a major increase this season, does it ramp up even more next season? The more Seth gets minutes, as we see this season, the more he scores.
Don't under estimate those 2 combos we have coming in, Denis may take a bit longer but he is long and talented, I think he is more a slasher than pure shooter. Dawkins on the other hand is a really sweet jump shooter, both at 6'4" and both defend (in other words I don't see either as Kerwin Walton as a freshman on the defensive end). I think Dawkins may really surprise a lot of people in a good way.
When I talk in terms of Lubin leaving, it isn't because he is a problem or has played poorly, I think he has maybe elevated his NIL stock this season. Thing is, crystal clear, we desperately MUST have a center that can play physical, we need a 6'11" version of Lubin. Lubin at 6'7-8" has played the 5 exclusively this season NOT the 4, he should be able to get a great shot at another school to start at the 4 or even lower level 5 with big minutes. 2 names not talked about much when we consider next season are James Brown and High (already taking classes so you have to assume he is doing so thinking he rejoins the team after this season, both 6'10". WE have JWash who has been some what up and down this season but does give us a shooter at 6'10", kid simply needs more shots and be willing to take them, that is what this off season should be about for him. We have Wilson on the way and you can book him in right now as our starting 4 next season, at 6'9-10"his skill set is amazing. We know the need for a physical 5, call him the TBD 5, has to be starter level no matter if he starts or not.
2 positions between the 4 & 5 and including Lubin we would have 5 guys looking for minutes, best case is Lubin comes off the bench for short minutes, he IMO has earned better than that, Lubin would be the smallest front court guy by at least 4". Listen to AJ when he tells you that Hubert has finally learned that small ball is a problem.
Neither is good enough to be the starting center at UNC. That's been made clear this whole season. I'm sure they are aware of every sports network in the country pointing to them as the hole in UNC's lineup. And just like previous seasons, I'm sure Hubert's post season meetings are not going to sugar coat the situation.
They will both be seniors next year. Unless the NCAA actually passes the rule soon giving everyone 5 years of eligibility, next year will be Lubin and Washington's last chance to make NIL and impress pro scouts. If they stay at UNC, they most likely will be bench players and their NIL deals will reflect that. Washington might want to stay to get his degree, and he may feel some sense of loyalty for UNC sticking with him through his injuries. Lubin has been at 3 different schools already, which may have set him back some in pursuing his degree if some courses didnt transfer between the 3 schools. He's also played for Team USA in the past and started a lot in college, so he seems less likely to accept a reserve role as a senior when he could simply transfer to a 4th school that offers him a starting role and nice NIL deal.
I think we'll be lucky to keep one of them. I'm relatively certain at least one will transfer, and won't be the least bit surprised if both transfer.
That certainly seemed true to start the season, but is definitely not true now for 3-pt shooting. He's now down to 28.4% - after being closer to 50% early on.
Some may be thinking "that's because of his injury" - but that's not true. Over the 5 games before the injury, he went 3-16 from deep - under 19%.
What we've seen is that Seth can be a good outside shooter. He showed that last year, too, but was timid about it. Early this year, he continued shooting well and seemed much more confident. Watching him last game, he went 2-5 and looked confident to my eye.
To those who wonder, his 2-pt shooting has improved slightly from last year (from 48.5% to 50.6%) and his FT shooting took a big jump (from 66.7% to 82.3%).
Which is to day that I agree that Seth may be "that guy," but he needs to get consistent.
I've been assuming that if Lubin could be good at PF, we would have seen him there a reasonable amount.
He did a little 3-pt shooting at Vandy, but not much and with indifferent results. He hasn't take a trey for us this year.
So . . . is he really PF material? Or is he really an undersized center?
You and I and some others here have wanted to see Jalen play more at the 4. Partly because we thought he was a good outside shooter. He tanked from deep early on this season, but is 3-5 over the last 9 games. And that's the problem with Jalen's 3-pt shooting: small samples.
Lubin is horrendous on defense. He cant defend the perimeter at all. Whenever he's guarding a screen, his drop coverage has him just standing there doing nothing. He never pressures the ball handler. He rarely gets a hand up on shooters. (All of this is why he never plays the 4, because the modern 4 must be able to defend the perimeter.) When he's in the paint he's simply too short to influence shots, and opposing players easily score over him.
He has not elevated his NIL stock. He's an undersized center who is terrible on defense and has spent most of the season fumbling clean passes. He can't play the 4 spot because he can't defend the modern stretch 4. He's good at rebounding and being physical, and can occasionally dribble himself into a scoring opportunity at the rim IF the opposing team doesn't send a 2nd defender to swipe at the ball and make him fumble it.
There's plenty of lesser programs that would certainly take him as a starter, but they won't win a lot of games. Because at the end of the day he's rebounding doesn't cancel out his terrible defense and limited offense. He's a role player on a good team, and a starter on a mediocre team.
Let's hope so.
How many wins did it cost us for Hubert to catch on? We'll never know, of course, but not zero.
To play PF you have to be able to defend the modern stretch 4. That means a lot of defending the perimeter, chasing players around screens, pressuring ball handlers, closing out on shooters.
The reason Washington and Lubin don't play the 4 is they are not capable of defending the position.
Hubert would not have had to play small ball if Withers hadn't been absolutely terrible for 90% of the season to date. He's literally the only guy on the roster who can defend the modern stretch 4, and has appropriate size to play the position. When he plays poorly (which has been most of his games in a UNC jersey) we have no other option but to play wings at the 4 spot. Because we know that if you put Lubin, Washington, or Claude at the 4 spot we'll get absolutely annihilated by whomever they have to defend.
But again that all goes back to our NIL failures in the offseason as we pursued transfer portal options. We needed to land starting PF and C in the portal to replace Ingram and Bacot. We didn't, and our lack of legitimate starting frontcourt players wrecked the season.
These are really good stat pulls.
It's felt like Seth's outside shooting really fell off a while ago. But I didn't realize just how bad it has gotten. For comparison, Cadeau has a better FG% and 3pt% on the season than Trimble.
To me it seems like the only spot Seth is truly comfortable shooting is the from the corner. If he shoots anywhere else on the perimeter, it is almost certainly going to be a miss. I'd love to see a chart showing his 3pt % at the various 3pt locations, to see if the numbers back up what I'm seeing.
I've long felt Seth is best suited as a 6th man. Someone you can plug in at different positions for energy, defense, and to attack the basket against tired starters or other subs. He doesn't really have a true position. You can't rely on him to be a knock down shooter. His offense really comes and goes based on how aggressively he attacks the basket. But sometimes he is too busy trying to avoid contact and he blows makeable scoring opportunities.
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