Who's Taking the Shots? Who Should Take the Shots?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

On a 40 minute basis, these are the field goal attempts for our main personnel plus their 2pt and 3pt FG%:

17.1 - Kennedy 51.9  --
16.9 - Justin  52.6 35.5
14.2 - JoelB   58.5 41.9
13.5 - Isaiah  61.1  --
12.4 - Tony    61.0  --
12.1 - Nate    36.4 31.3
11.9 - Luke    42.1 25.0
10.1 - Brandon 43.8 26.3
09.4 - Kenny   57.7 44.1
07.4 - Seventh 38.9 33.3

Stats from here:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/north-carolina/2017.html

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Interesting numbers. I would like to see Isaiah and Tony a little higher, but they're letting the shots come to them and not forcing the issue. I love seeing Justin shooting so much, but when he is off, I would like to see him defer a little bit more.

 

[dadika13]

Interesting numbers. I would like to see Isaiah and Tony a little higher, but they're letting the shots come to them and not forcing the issue. I love seeing Justin shooting so much, but when he is off, I would like to see him defer a little bit more.

I disagree there a tiny bit about Justin. With JB out, he knows he has to be the go to guy and we have to allow him to shoot himself out of a bad half. With JB in, then yes, let the ball run through JB more than normal if JJ is struggling.

I don't have an issue with how JJ played offensively last night even though he struggled.

 

[Tom79]

Our two pt. conversions are okay for most of the guys, but Kenny jumps up with his 3 pt. number.
I hope the last two games are our only "out of sorts" games we have all season.
We need JBII on the floor directing at the least and having TP back would be a great boost to energy and more emotion/defense/leadership. Good to see the guys getting after it to get back in the game, a huge positive, they fought back by defense. A teaching moment, eh?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Last year Brice took 15.5 shots per 40 minutes and hit them at a 61.4% clip (all from 2pt range).

That's fewer shots but a higher percentage than Kennedy and Justin.

Isaiah is shooting about as well as Brice, percentagewise, but taking fewer shots per 40 minutes.

I've been thinking that our guards are having more trouble punching the ball inside than last season. I suspect that not having a tall, bouncy target like Brice is part of the problem, although I don't see why we don't lob more to Isaiah, who is pretty springy in his own right. Kennedy, not so much.

That impression is partly born out by our offensive rebounding numbers. Kennedy and Tony are among the nation's leaders in offensive rebounding. Which may explain their higher-than-expected FG attempts. They aren't getting those shots because our guards deliver the ball to them so much as that they are getting our misses and putting them back up. Sometimes several times in one possession.

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

I disagree there a tiny bit about Justin. With JB out, he knows he has to be the go to guy and we have to allow him to shoot himself out of a bad half. With JB in, then yes, let the ball run through JB more than normal if JJ is struggling.

I don't have an issue with how JJ played offensively last night even though he struggled.

Yeah, I should've quantified that more. I do agree with him seeking his shot without Berry playing. When Berry is in the game, he should (and has been) option 1,2 and 3, in a facilitory manner though. Berry has the keys to the offense and it is definitely a different team without him on the court. I would have thought that Britt would've been an adequate backup by his senior season, but that's proving to not always be the case. He's VERY streaky. When he's on, he easily gets the job done. When he isn't though, it's BAAAAAAD. Honestly, when he is off, I think Britt has a tendency to stall the ball movement within the halfcourt offense.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Our two pt. conversions are okay for most of the guys, but Kenny jumps up with his 3 pt. number.
I hope the last two games are our only "out of sorts" games we have all season.
We need JBII on the floor directing at the least and having TP back would be a great boost to energy and more emotion/defense/leadership. Good to see the guys getting after it to get back in the game, a huge positive, they fought back by defense. A teaching moment, eh?

Kenny looks like he should have more of a green light. But maybe being conservative is why he's hitting his shots so well. If I'm Roy, I might urge him to look for his own shot a bit more. Nate not so much.

Seventh has made a few nice drives in recent games. He was missing them earlier, so I hope that signifies that he's adapting to this level of play.

OTOH, Seventh is one of the guards who has trouble getting the ball inside. How many times have we seen him try to pass it over the defender to our bigs, but the arc on his pass was too low - leading to an interception? This wouldn't have happened last year because he'd be passing to Brice and would know that Brice would go get the higher pass. Kennedy can't and we don't seem to be using Isaiah that way.

 

[DSouthr]

Kenny looks like he should have more of a green light. But maybe being conservative is why he's hitting his shots so well. If I'm Roy, I might urge him to look for his own shot a bit more. Nate not so much.

Seventh has made a few nice drives in recent games. He was missing them earlier, so I hope that signifies that he's adapting to this level of play.

OTOH, Seventh is one of the guards who has trouble getting the ball inside. How many times have we seen him try to pass it over the defender to our bigs, but the arc on his pass was too low - leading to an interception? This wouldn't have happened last year because he'd be passing to Brice and would know that Brice would go get the higher pass. Kennedy can't and we don't seem to be using Isaiah that way.

This for me is one of those times I do care for the stats because it IMO is not about who takes the shot as much as it has become about shot selection. If it is a god shot for that player then I am fine with him taking it. Luke for example took a trey last night and missed it but that was a good shot for him, I want him taking that shot, I would not want Hicks taking that same shot. Hicks on the other hand took and made a fall away mid range and glad he made it but it was still a bad shot, no board coverage, plenty time on the clock, I don't need my 6'8" power forward taking 15ft fall away jump shots in that situation. Nate went O for a ton prior to hitting that trey but that trey was a wide open look off a inside back out pass, that is his sweet spot. He is not the guy that curls off screens and hits a good % and he isn't gonna hit a solid % when a defender has a hand in his face and he has been taking WAY TO MANY of those lately.

Justin struggles when he does not get his feet square, if he catches a pass from the inside he naturally squares but when he catches from a side and trys to pop up he is not nearly as accurate, that is when he is better to drive and take the floater. Even Joel at times borders on that good shot bad shot edge. So far Kenny may be the best at refusing to take a bad shot, at times he will pass up what should be a good shot within his wheel house, I do like the shots he does take.

So for me the question is not who takes the shot, I think they all have a wheel house where they have shots I want them to take and they absolutely have spots that are bad shots for them but maybe a good shot for another kid. For me it is more about shot selection than who takes it.

 

[plm]

i hear you david but i want my main guys shooting--hit or miss. George karl use to say that was the biggest difference he had with dean. you have to win or lose with your best player taking the shots. losing to indiana Jordan's final year would be so much easier for me if Jordan would have taken 20 shots. the reason james worthy is called big game james is partly because in the 82 championship game that dude shot the ball every time he had the chance.

on this team i can live with a loss if Jackson, berry and bradley are taking the majority of the shots.

 

[Archer2]

i hear you david but i want my main guys shooting--hit or miss. George karl use to say that was the biggest difference he had with dean. you have to win or lose with your best player taking the shots. losing to indiana Jordan's final year would be so much easier for me if Jordan would have taken 20 shots. the reason james worthy is called big game james is partly because in the 82 championship game that dude shot the ball every time he had the chance.

I agree.

On this team i can live with a loss if Jackson, berry and bradley are taking the majority of the shots.

I would add Isaiah to that list. He doesn't take many bad shots and makes a good percentage of them. He's also one of our more reliable FT shooters.

Edited to correct grammar.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Good shots and good timing... a lot of Nates attempts are early in the shot clock with the rebounders not in good position.
Those are offence killers - basically a turnover.

Nate though, isn't the only offender. Justin has jacked up a few ill-thought shots and seventh is good for one or two a game.

Also, for a team which has lived off playing inside-out, there's been very little "inside" early on in the last two games. Isaiah and Kennedy need more quality touches in the first 5min of every game.

 

[Archer2]

Exactly, Oz. Part of what constitutes a "good" shot is the timing. Settling for an outside jumper early in the shot clock when your bigs haven't touched the ball is often considered a bad shot by coaches. It's not just where the shots are taken from, but whether you are closely guarded and at what point in the shot clock they are taken.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Luke for example took a trey last night and missed it but that was a good shot for him, I want him taking that shot....

I recall him taking 2 treys in that game that missed badly.

Yes, I've seen him hit a couple. But I'm not ready to say those were good shots for him. I didn't like him taking them. I would have been happy if they had hit, but I didn't like them when they left his hand.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

So for me the question is not who takes the shot, I think they all have a wheel house where they have shots I want them to take and they absolutely have spots that are bad shots for them but maybe a good shot for another kid. For me it is more about shot selection than who takes it.

And part of that is getting the ball to each player where it fits in his "wheel house."

We aren't doing that so well recently.

We go through this sort of thing a few times each season, it seems.

We start looking good. Then the opposition adjusts and we suddenly suck. Then we step up and make adjustments and look good again.

The trick is to have the final step up happen as we hit post season play (or just get so good that the opposition can't adjust, as happened in 2009).

 

[Tom79]

Everything y'all are saying says to me perhaps we need to run more sets to the first media break, then go freelance and see how it goes.

 

[Archer2]

Everything y'all are saying says to me perhaps we need to run more sets to the first media break, then go freelance and see how it goes.

Personally, I'm a fan of this very thing. I think it would ensure that we get out of the gate faster by getting our bigs established very early. Isaiah would benefit from this and it would mean fewer slow starts, IMO.

 

[RP12]

I feel like we don't get the best from Kennedy's passing talent because he's so focused on making a move quickly, so he doesn't fully assess the situation and look to pass back out and possibly repost.

 

[DSouthr]

I think we really do need to get Hicks much more involved early, switch him on early so to speak. Can do that by scripting some plays that spring him for easy looks to get him going. I am not a fan of a lot of early jump shots, it can be fools gold and it allows long rebounds that we don't get to. I have seen way to many bad shot treys taken in first halves and frankly that applies to all of our back court with the exception of Kenny, he at times passes what should be a good shot for him, he is kind of the polar opposite.

The analogy I like is it is kind of like boxing, where the inside game is the body punching and the outside jump shots the head shots. Kill the body and the head will die, soften up the inside and it opens up cleaner look jumpers.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Justin needs to get to the free throw line more. He's played by far the most minutes on the team in total, but is only 5th in FTA's.

This team should be living at the free throw line because everyone (except Jackson) draws an extremely high amount of fouls.

I understand he's going to have to shoot and make 3's for this team to be really good because (shocker), we don't have a whole lot of high volume and efficient 3-point shooters. But he should be living at the line or at least getting there at a higher rate.

The more FT's we shoot, the less important it will be if we have an off night shooting from 3.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Saw this article linked at another site.

http://www.thesecondarybreak.us/breaking-down-the-frontcourt-rotation/

Here's one of the charts from it that is pretty interesting:

 

[ChiShankCity]

Saw this article linked at another site.

http://www.thesecondarybreak.us/breaking-down-the-frontcourt-rotation/

Here's one of the charts from it that is pretty interesting:

I would love to see Jackson more at the 4. I've been asking for more small ball the last few seasons. Especially when Pinson is back in the fold. Jackson could be a huge match up problem.

Defense will be an issue with that lineup, but most NBA teams have a "death lineup" that's usually a small lineup that can score more efficiently. Last year Golden State had a: Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Igoudala, Green lineup that was virtually unstoppable. The Cavs had a: Dellavodova, Shumpert, Jefferson, LeBron, Channing Frye lineup, that didn't play a single minute together during the regular season, that wreaked havoc in the playoffs.

It's something Roy should do more but it takes away from this team's greatest strength for sure (offensive rebounding).

 

[DSouthr]

I would love to see Jackson more at the 4. I've been asking for more small ball the last few seasons. Especially when Pinson is back in the fold. Jackson could be a huge match up problem.

Defense will be an issue with that lineup, but most NBA teams have a "death lineup" that's usually a small lineup that can score more efficiently. Last year Golden State had a: Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Igoudala, Green lineup that was virtually unstoppable. The Cavs had a: Dellavodova, Shumpert, Jefferson, LeBron, Channing Frye lineup, that didn't play a single minute together during the regular season, that wreaked havoc in the playoffs.

It's something Roy should do more but it takes away from this team's greatest strength for sure (offensive rebounding).

I am not nearly as sold on Jackson at the 4 as I am Theo at the 4 because I love the way Theo and Jackson can switch off assignments, I am not as comfortale with those switches when Jackson moves to the 4 with either BRob or Kenny at the 3. I like that Jackson can take a big up top and out of rebounding position but I don't love him shooting over a longer defender and at times he does that rather than drive the bigger slower guy. Theo will drive and you have to play him as a passer so weak side has to be honest, Justin is going to more take the floater or go to the rim so the weak side can get more involved.

 

[Archer2]

Yeah, when our small ball lineup was so good at the end of last year, it was Theo who swung down to the four spot and JJ who played the three. That lineup is one of the main reasons I can't wait to get Theo back.

 

[gauchoheel]

Nice post. I think it's pretty clear the starters + Tony should be taking most of the shots. Feed the bigs and kick it out to JB and Kenny when doubled.