David Hale: What happened to CFB in the northeast?

[WoadBlue]

The article opens with discussion of Doug Flutie's last second TD pass from behind the 50 to upset defending National Champ Miami. The most important part, the one that drives home how CFB means next to nothing across almost the entire northeast outside Penn St fans, is also about BC: "Flutie remembers flipping through the newspaper back in 2007. Again, Boston College was among the nation's best programs. The Eagles had another star QB in Matt Ryan, and they'd won their first eight games of the season. They were headed to Virginia Tech for a Thursday night showdown ranked No. 2 in the country.
It was the type of game that, in Flutie's day, would've been front-page news.
"I couldn't even find an article on the game in the newspaper," Flutie said."
Even when BC had a Heisman candidate at QB and was ranked #2, a game at VT, when the Hokies were still riding very high, meant next to absolute 0 to the Boston media. And that means that BC was worth next to 0 to the ACC.
It really does not matter why northeasterners went from caring some (but not nearly as much as Southerners or midwesterners) about CFB in the early 1980s to caring almost nothing about CFB by the dawn of the 21st century. All that matters is that northeasterners even in the 1990s seemed to have little concern for CFB, even while being fairly passionate about College Hoops. And that means that the ACC adding BC was a very stupid move. Worse in terms of ACC stupidity, the leadership wanted Syracuse, another northeastern school, rather than VT. I wanted WVU as the 12th member. A #2 ranked WVU team with a Heisman candidate at QB headed to play at VT would have major media interests, including outside WV. Pittsburgh and Baltimore and DC media all would have cared much more about such a WVU team than Boston media did about BC.

 

[WoadBlue]

Second most important quote: "ESPN tracks ratings share -- the percentage of households tuned in for a given show -- in 56 markets. For the network's college football broadcasts in 2021, Boston ranked 54th. New York was 53rd. D.C. was 43rd. The only northeastern market to crack the top 20 was Pittsburgh (at No. 19)."

Pittsburgh, of course, is far closer to Ohio, the most CFB-crazed midwestern state, than it is to Philadelphia. ACC football can build off Pittsburgh, and having Cincy would help that. But ACC football can never be helped by having the Boston and NY markets.

 

[tarheel0910]

Now that Cincinnati is going to the big 12, there is zero chance they come to the ACC. Even if they did, I doubt it would increase the money much.

 

[andrew jones]

The article opens with discussion of Doug Flutie's last second TD pass from behind the 50 to upset defending National Champ Miami. The most important part, the one that drives home how CFB means next to nothing across almost the entire northeast outside Penn St fans, is also about BC: "Flutie remembers flipping through the newspaper back in 2007. Again, Boston College was among the nation's best programs. The Eagles had another star QB in Matt Ryan, and they'd won their first eight games of the season. They were headed to Virginia Tech for a Thursday night showdown ranked No. 2 in the country.
It was the type of game that, in Flutie's day, would've been front-page news.
"I couldn't even find an article on the game in the newspaper," Flutie said."
Even when BC had a Heisman candidate at QB and was ranked #2, a game at VT, when the Hokies were still riding very high, meant next to absolute 0 to the Boston media. And that means that BC was worth next to 0 to the ACC.
It really does not matter why northeasterners went from caring some (but not nearly as much as Southerners or midwesterners) about CFB in the early 1980s to caring almost nothing about CFB by the dawn of the 21st century. All that matters is that northeasterners even in the 1990s seemed to have little concern for CFB, even while being fairly passionate about College Hoops. And that means that the ACC adding BC was a very stupid move. Worse in terms of ACC stupidity, the leadership wanted Syracuse, another northeastern school, rather than VT. I wanted WVU as the 12th member. A #2 ranked WVU team with a Heisman candidate at QB headed to play at VT would have major media interests, including outside WV. Pittsburgh and Baltimore and DC media all would have cared much more about such a WVU team than Boston media did about BC.

There are factions within the ACC that would love to find a way to systematically contract Wake and BC from the conference. The per-team payout would go up a decent amoung because the others wouldn't have to subsidize "those two black holes anymore," a very good source told me.

 

[WoadBlue]

Now that Cincinnati is going to the big 12, there is zero chance they come to the ACC. Even if they did, I doubt it would increase the money much.

Without Texas and OU, the Big 12 is very little in every sense. That will show up in every way stating when those 2 leave.

The increase in new viewers and revenue from having Cincy in the ACC would be slow, because Cincy has never truly been in a Major conference. When it entered the BE, BE football was already gutted and Major in name only.

 

[WoadBlue]

There are factions within the ACC that would love to find a way to systematically contract Wake and BC from the conference. The per-team payout would go up a decent amoung because the others wouldn't have to subsidize "those two black holes anymore," a very good source told me.

We'd need to replace them. ACC football needs the hot rivalries with schools that WVU brings as well as the WVU traveling fans, and ACC football needs to have another state that is football obsessed and produces a huge amount of football talent, even if the ACC school in that state is a distant #2 in football history and fan base size and passion. Cincy has the most growth potential in terms of TV fans and drawing recruits of any school not in a Major conference because Ohio St is the only Major conference school now in a Major conference

That trade would be very good for ACC football from the get-go, and it could prove a master stroke over a few years.

 

[tarheel0910]

Without Texas and OU, the Big 12 is very little in every sense. That will show up in every way stating when those 2 leave.

The increase in new viewers and revenue from having Cincy in the ACC would be slow, because Cincy has never truly been in a Major conference. When it entered the BE, BE football was already gutted and Major in name only.

The big 12 isn't dying, though. Unless the impossible happens then the ACC is the walking dead. Why would you leave for a conference that won't be here (or will end up basically being a mid major) in 10 years? What kind of contract does the ACC get without UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, VT and Miami?

 

[andrew jones]

We'd need to replace them. ACC football needs the hot rivalries with schools that WVU brings as well as the WVU traveling fans, and ACC football needs to have another state that is football obsessed and produces a huge amount of football talent, even if the ACC school in that state is a distant #2 in football history and fan base size and passion. Cincy has the most growth potential in terms of TV fans and drawing recruits of any school not in a Major conference because Ohio St is the only Major conference school now in a Major conference

That trade would be very good for ACC football from the get-go, and it could prove a master stroke over a few years.

UCF is more preferred than Cincy. MUCH more preferred.

 

[tarheel0910]

UCF is more preferred than Cincy. MUCH more preferred.

Why? They aren't going to help keep this thing together. The ACC needs to move towards unequal revenue splits and design a formula that would essentially force schools like BC and WF to leave.

 

[WoadBlue]

Why? They aren't going to help keep this thing together. The ACC needs to move towards unequal revenue splits and design a formula that would essentially force schools like BC and WF to leave.

I understand the liking of UCF. It is the largest school in the country. There is no NFL in town. FL is simply loaded with talent and is the hotspot to visit. ESPN might take a real interest in promoting that which by default is its Home Town team.

I think a 15 team ACC - minus BC and WF and plus WVU, Cincy, and UCF - might be the best we could do. If ESPN paid for that what it should, it would survive at full strength and usually be the best basketball league and 2nd best in both football and baseball.

If UCF were to join the ACC, I think it should return to its original name: Florida Technological University.

 

[andrew jones]

Why? They aren't going to help keep this thing together. The ACC needs to move towards unequal revenue splits and design a formula that would essentially force schools like BC and WF to leave.

As opposed to Cincy they are more preferred.

The unequal revenue combined with minimum spending mandates on football could nudge some schools out of the league. This has been discussed in some noteworthy circles.

If the ACC could bump out those two and add WVU and UCF, the payout would improve considerably. It still wouldn't come close to the Big Ten and SEC, but it would be a step in that direction. Go to a nine-game league schedule, eliminate all FCS games, and the value of the TV contract would mean ESPN would redo it. Then, Phillips can actually include streaming in the package and the value would go up even more.

Again, these moves won't get them near the Big Ten and SEC ranges, but it would raise the payout by a solid amount and get the league moving in the right direction.

Then, all FSU, Miami, and VT have to do is get back to where they were as programs, Louisville find consistency, GT matter again, UNC to clobber the snooze button, and UVA, State, Pitt, and Syracuse to play to their potential, and the product will be excellent and much more valuable.

Lots of its for sure, and none of this would be easy, if it indeed became part of the mission.

 

[tarheel0910]

As opposed to Cincy they are more preferred.

The unequal revenue combined with minimum spending mandates on football could nudge some schools out of the league. This has been discussed in some noteworthy circles.

If the ACC could bump out those two and add WVU and UCF, the payout would improve considerably. It still wouldn't come close to the Big Ten and SEC, but it would be a step in that direction. Go to a nine-game league schedule, eliminate all FCS games, and the value of the TV contract would mean ESPN would redo it. Then, Phillips can actually include streaming in the package and the value would go up even more.

Again, these moves won't get them near the Big Ten and SEC ranges, but it would raise the payout by a solid amount and get the league moving in the right direction.

Then, all FSU, Miami, and VT have to do is get back to where they were as programs, Louisville find consistency, GT matter again, UNC to clobber the snooze button, and UVA, State, Pitt, and Syracuse to play to their potential, and the product will be excellent and much more valuable.

Lots of its for sure, and none of this would be easy, if it indeed became part of the mission.

I agree with that, but I think there are multiple ACC schools that are more interested in finding a way out than they are finding a way to keep it together. There's just too many things that have to go right for them to want to stay. I'm hoping UNC is one of them. As much as I would hate to leave the ACC, I would hate it more if we get left behind.

 

[WoadBlue]

I agree with that, but I think there are multiple ACC schools that are more interested in finding a way out than they are finding a way to keep it together. There's just too many things that have to go right for them to want to stay. I'm hoping UNC is one of them. As much as I would hate to leave the ACC, I would hate it more if we get left behind.

Being proactive in order not to get left behind should should be Bubba Cunningham's Priority #1. If that were to mean leaving Moo behind, too bad. If it were to mean making a deal with the Big Ten to lead a group of ACC teams there, then as much as I hate the BT, so be it.

I am certain now that I do not trust ESPN at all.

 

[WoadBlue]

As opposed to Cincy they are more preferred.

The unequal revenue combined with minimum spending mandates on football could nudge some schools out of the league. This has been discussed in some noteworthy circles.

If the ACC could bump out those two and add WVU and UCF, the payout would improve considerably. It still wouldn't come close to the Big Ten and SEC, but it would be a step in that direction. Go to a nine-game league schedule, eliminate all FCS games, and the value of the TV contract would mean ESPN would redo it. Then, Phillips can actually include streaming in the package and the value would go up even more.

Again, these moves won't get them near the Big Ten and SEC ranges, but it would raise the payout by a solid amount and get the league moving in the right direction.

Then, all FSU, Miami, and VT have to do is get back to where they were as programs, Louisville find consistency, GT matter again, UNC to clobber the snooze button, and UVA, State, Pitt, and Syracuse to play to their potential, and the product will be excellent and much more valuable.

Lots of its for sure, and none of this would be easy, if it indeed became part of the mission.

So this group of ACC leaders who recognize what liabilities Wake and BC are prefer having 3 teams in FL in the ACC over having 1 in OH. I see merit in each case, which is the reason I would be happy to add all 3 to replace Wake and BC.

I'm also more than open to booting Syracuse. Syracuse is worth something in basketball, but I more than doubt that even back to back to back 9-3 Cuse football teams can draw a sizable TV audience. New Yorkers simply do not care for CFB, unless maybe it is a very good Penn St team facing Notre Dame.

 

[andrew jones]

I agree with that, but I think there are multiple ACC schools that are more interested in finding a way out than they are finding a way to keep it together. There's just too many things that have to go right for them to want to stay. I'm hoping UNC is one of them. As much as I would hate to leave the ACC, I would hate it more if we get left behind.

That is not what I havw been told. The schools people think want to jump recognize they have a good thing from a football perspective, one if they can keep it going, and the others if they can get it going. If they compete for something national, they will make a ton of additional local revenue, couple that with the ACC increasing its payout by a decent amount, might make it worth it to stay in the league. Mega conference doesn't mean everyone will win because they can't. Someone has to be the Detroit Lions.

 

[andrew jones]

So this group of ACC leaders who recognize what liabilities Wake and BC are prefer having 3 teams in FL in the ACC over having 1 in OH. I see merit in each case, which is the reason I would be happy to add all 3 to replace Wake and BC.

I'm also more than open to booting Syracuse. Syracuse is worth something in basketball, but I more than doubt that even back to back to back 9-3 Cuse football teams can draw a sizable TV audience. New Yorkers simply do not care for CFB, unless maybe it is a very good Penn St team facing Notre Dame.

Location isn't as important as eyeballs, especially streaming eyeballs. UCF is a huge school with almost all of its alums under 60 years of age. Its alums will stream, and the needle is clearly pointed in the right dirction for mega growth there.

Cincy is on the radar for sure, but my understanding is WVU and UCF are far more appealing.

 

[tarheel0910]

That is not what I havw been told. The schools people think want to jump recognize they have a good thing from a football perspective, one if they can keep it going, and the others if they can get it going. If they compete for something national, they will make a ton of additional local revenue, couple that with the ACC increasing its payout by a decent amount, might make it worth it to stay in the league. Mega conference doesn't mean everyone will win because they can't. Someone has to be the Detroit Lions.

The Detroit Lions are still getting paid, though. The ACC needs three programs that were good (Miami, VT, FSU) to be great again and UNC, because of branding, to become top 15 teams competing for championships. The chances of that happening is remote. If it actually does happen, ESPN will definitely find a way to get them to the SEC instead of paying for BC and WF. That $50+ million revenue gap is going to be more and more tempting as we get closer to the GofR expiring. I hope someone at UNC realizes we need to at least have a contingency plan.

 

[uncboy10]

That is not what I havw been told. The schools people think want to jump recognize they have a good thing from a football perspective

This has been my perspective all along. Clemson in particular has it made in the ACC. They're not getting left out of the playoff if they run the table, so why head to a harder conference where they will have a tougher path to get there?

 

[andrew jones]

This has been my perspective all along. Clemson in particular has it made in the ACC. They're not getting left out of the playoff if they run the table, so why head to a harder conference where they will have a tougher path to get there?

Plus, when they've won titles, or even been to title games, they have made a ton of money outside of the general payout and annual gate receipts. Schools that make runs made a killing.

 

[tarheel0910]

This has been my perspective all along. Clemson in particular has it made in the ACC. They're not getting left out of the playoff if they run the table, so why head to a harder conference where they will have a tougher path to get there?

Because they are going to go from being $20 million behind to $60 million. You can make up the $20. You can't make up $60. That extra money also funds other sports. Clemson might not care about the director's Cup, but schools like UNC care a lot.

ETA: And Clemson doesn't keep all the money it makes. That's why the ACC needs to figure out the revenue splits. School's like BC are getting Clemson's money.

 

[uncboy10]

Plus, when they've won titles, or even been to title games, they have made a ton of money outside of the general payout and annual gate receipts. Schools that make runs made a killing.

If you spend five minutes in upstate SC counting IPSTAY stickers it becomes very obvious that they aren’t hurting for money.

 

[uncboy10]

Because they are going to go from being $20 million behind to $60 million. You can make up the $20. You can't make up $60. That extra money also funds other sports. Clemson might not care about the director's Cup, but schools like UNC care a lot.

I agree about Carolina but there is only one sport that is relevant in Clemson and they already bring in enough funding to put together a championship team.

If schools like Carolina start leaving then they won’t have a choice. They still have to be in a decent enough conference to be a playoff team when they run the table. If the ACC falls apart then I’m sure they’ll end up in the SEC but I’m not sure they’re in any hurry to get there.

 

[WoadBlue]

The Detroit Lions are still getting paid, though. The ACC needs three programs that were good (Miami, VT, FSU) to be great again and UNC, because of branding, to become top 15 teams competing for championships. The chances of that happening is remote. If it actually does happen, ESPN will definitely find a way to get them to the SEC instead of paying for BC and WF. That $50+ million revenue gap is going to be more and more tempting as we get closer to the GofR expiring. I hope someone at UNC realizes we need to at least have a contingency plan.

I think it's more important for UNC to become very good, annually, than for VT to be winning at the same level.

I think that ACC football would be best appreciated by general CFB fans round the nation if every year 4 of the 5 best teams in the league include Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC.

 

[WoadBlue]

I agree about Carolina but there is only one sport that is relevant in Clemson and they already bring in enough funding to put together a championship team.

If schools like Carolina start leaving then they won’t have a choice. They still have to be in a decent enough conference to be a playoff team when they run the table. If the ACC falls apart then I’m sure they’ll end up in the SEC but I’m not sure they’re in any hurry to get there.

I think you are correct that even baseball doesn't really matter at Clemson. But I think you fail to grasp how much they are going to hate and fear seeing SoCar taking in 40 or 50 million more per year than they take in.

Ditto FSU vis a vis Florida. The SEC and ESPN are not just counting on that; they are ready to throw gas on any small flame.

 

[WoadBlue]

Brett McMurphy says that ESPN will have no part of the Big Ten in the future. That the BT deal will be with Fox, CBS, and NBC. That means that ESPN should see a good deal of value in paying the ACC properly and in the ACC adding Cincy and WVU (which has hordes of TV fans in both western PA and southern OH). ESPN should want as much Major/Power conference presence as it can get in the midwest.

 

[andrew jones]

Brett McMurphy says that ESPN will have no part of the Big Ten in the future. That the BT deal will be with Fox, CBS, and NBC. That means that ESPN should see a good deal of value in paying the ACC properly and in the ACC adding Cincy and WVU (which has hordes of TV fans in both western PA and southern OH). ESPN should want as much Major/Power conference presence as it can get in the midwest.

UCF is more valuable than Cincy. But, if the ACC goes bigger, Cincy would also be in the mix.

 

[WoadBlue]

UCF is more valuable than Cincy. But, if the ACC goes bigger, Cincy would also be in the mix.

A question now should be: with ESPN losing all BT games, how much would Cincy in the ACC help ESPN keep OH people watching ESPN?

 

[tarheel0910]

A question now should be: with ESPN losing all BT games, how much would Cincy in the ACC help ESPN keep OH people watching ESPN?

ESPN already has the rights to Cincinnati. That's one more reason it makes more sense for them to stay in the big 12 instead of the ACC.

 

[WoadBlue]

ESPN already has the rights to Cincinnati. That's one more reason it makes more sense for them to stay in the big 12 instead of the ACC.

But Cincy in the Big 12 lacking OU and Texas will not make any dent in bringing OH fans of CFB to the Big 12 and ESPN. Cincy in a league with Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT, UNC, and Louisville (Cincy is Louisville's most played rival in both revenue sports), and playing ND once every 3 years, will.

 

[tarheel0910]

But Cincy in the Big 12 lacking OU and Texas will not make any dent in bringing OH fans of CFB to the Big 12 and ESPN. Cincy in a league with Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT, UNC, and Louisville (Cincy is Louisville's most played rival in both revenue sports), and playing ND once every 3 years, will.

You're giving the ACC too much credit. OH fans aren't paying attention to any of those schools except for Clemson. They'll get just as much money, if not more, than the ACC. And a stable conference. There's no logical reason for Cincinnati to come to the ACC over the big 12. You can make the argument that it would help the ACC, but why should Cincinnati care about that?

 

[Xlance]

UCF is more valuable than Cincy. But, if the ACC goes bigger, Cincy would also be in the mix.

If we grow by only two and if ESPN wants the ACC to have a third school in Florida, then we are probably looking at West Virginia and UCF or Cincinnati and UCF?

 

[andrew jones]

If we grow by only two and if ESPN wants the ACC to have a third school in Florida, then we are probably looking at West Virginia and UCF or Cincinnati and UCF?

WVU and UCF

 

[tarheel0910]

WVU and UCF

What do you think the odds are that the ACC actually expands? Those schools don't seem like they would bring enough value to increase the average payout and I doubt either would sign a GofR.

 

[andrew jones]

What do you think the odds are that the ACC actually expands? Those schools don't seem like they would bring enough value to increase the average payout and I doubt either would sign a GofR.

I think it's definitely possible, and the thinking among many from the bigger schools is that it's necessary.

 

[tarheel0910]

I think it's definitely possible, and the thinking among many from the bigger schools is that it's necessary.

Interesting. Seems like the only way it would bring enough value is if there is an uneven revenue split, which I think you said has been floated. I think the biggest obstacle would be the GofR. I would be surprised if anyone would sign that.

 

[andrew jones]

Interesting. Seems like the only way it would bring enough value is if there is an uneven revenue split, which I think you said has been floated. I think the biggest obstacle would be the GofR. I would be surprised if anyone would sign that.

Uneven revenue split and mandate minimum spending on football could force a couple of schools to consider leaving - without penalty - and then adding WVU and UCF would help a lot. Then, there wouldn't be as much a need for uneven revenue.

There is a path to where the ACC can get to enough per-team revenue that it remains solvent, but it's a tricky path. Perhaps now that ESPN isn't going to have the Big Ten means the ACC and SEC have a hoops challenge, but also maybe do something in football, too. And if the ACC can renegotiate the ESPN deal, it will include streaming, which will raise the payout as well.

If teams were going to jump they would have over the last month, as the schools that might have an inclination to go to another conference have done dur diligence looking for a loophole, but that doesn't really exist unless there is a mass exodus, and nobody sees that happening as of now.

 

[Xlance]

Uneven revenue split and mandate minimum spending on football could force a couple of schools to consider leaving - without penalty - and then adding WVU and UCF would help a lot. Then, there wouldn't be as much a need for uneven revenue.

There is a path to where the ACC can get to enough per-team revenue that it remains solvent, but it's a tricky path. Perhaps now that ESPN isn't going to have the Big Ten means the ACC and SEC have a hoops challenge, but also maybe do something in football, too. And if the ACC can renegotiate the ESPN deal, it will include streaming, which will raise the payout as well.

If teams were going to jump they would have over the last month, as the schools that might have an inclination to go to another conference have done dur diligence looking for a loophole, but that doesn't really exist unless there is a mass exodus, and nobody sees that happening as of now.

If we lost two of the current membership due to the reasons you stated, would the ACC then be looking to add 4 schools to get to 16? I assume that WVU and UCF would be two of the 4?
Would it then be reasonable to look for a couple of schools in Texas? Network distribution, recruiting, new market...would it be worth the travel difficulties?

Swarbrick said today that travel to some ACC schools (he mentioned FSU) was a real ordeal. Is Texas too far (it would be our first venture out of the ETZ)?

 

[tarheel0910]

Uneven revenue split and mandate minimum spending on football could force a couple of schools to consider leaving - without penalty - and then adding WVU and UCF would help a lot. Then, there wouldn't be as much a need for uneven revenue.

There is a path to where the ACC can get to enough per-team revenue that it remains solvent, but it's a tricky path. Perhaps now that ESPN isn't going to have the Big Ten means the ACC and SEC have a hoops challenge, but also maybe do something in football, too. And if the ACC can renegotiate the ESPN deal, it will include streaming, which will raise the payout as well.

If teams were going to jump they would have over the last month, as the schools that might have an inclination to go to another conference have done dur diligence looking for a loophole, but that doesn't really exist unless there is a mass exodus, and nobody sees that happening as of now.

Speaking of ESPN, I wonder if losing the Big would make ESPN more willing to find some cash for the ACC. A doomsday scenario for them would be to lose UNC, UVA and a couple more ACC teams to the Big. Might be worth giving a little more to make ACC teams happy so they don't lose them or if they do leave, they go to the SEC.

 

[andrew jones]

If we lost two of the current membership due to the reasons you stated, would the ACC then be looking to add 4 schools to get to 16? I assume that WVU and UCF would be two of the 4?
Would it then be reasonable to look for a couple of schools in Texas? Network distribution, recruiting, new market...would it be worth the travel difficulties?

Swarbrick said today that travel to some ACC schools (he mentioned FSU) was a real ordeal. Is Texas too far (it would be our first venture out of the ETZ)?

There aren't a lot of flights into Tallahassee, which is around the size of Wilmington, NC. I have rrely had many options flying in and out of there, so I get what he's saying. Football and basketball charter flights, so it doesn't affect them.

I have not heard 16 without Notre Dame being included. If they lost two and added two, those 14 wouldn't be awful as they wait out Dame.

 

[Xlance]

There aren't a lot of flights into Tallahassee, which is around the size of Wilmington, NC. I have rrely had many options flying in and out of there, so I get what he's saying. Football and basketball charter flights, so it doesn't affect them.

I have not heard 16 without Notre Dame being included. If they lost two and added two, those 14 wouldn't be awful as they wait out Dame.

Which two get reassigned? BC and Wake or Syracuse?