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North Carolina vs. South Carolina

Raising Heel

Raising Heel

Hall of Famer
Aug 31, 2008
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A van down by the river
It's slow over here, so.... I posted this on the premium board last week. Would be curious to hear input (or derision) from you folks as well:

As some of you know, I like playing around with football statistics. I posted head-to-head stats here before most games last season. It was hard to gauge the amount of interest from the board, but I do this stuff for myself anyway so if even one person enjoyed them that's a good thing.

Anyway, I've been working on revamping some of the stats during the offseason. I'll post below what I've come up with so far. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts. I'm open to constructive criticism, so if there are changes you'd like to see or an entirely different analysis, let me know.

Two disclaimers. One, I'm limited by the stats that are publicly available from the NCAA website. I'm not going to be able to tell you UNC's completion percentage on 3rd down and 5+ yards to go when throwing 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage to the right side of the field. Secondly, I'm not ESPN or CBS Sports or any of those guys, so any infographics you want to see will be somewhat limited by what I can do with basic software. Other than that, let it rip.

What you see below is the North Carolina-South Carolina opener based on stats from the 2014 season. Click on the link to see the full-sized version of each graphic (since Rivals shrinks them down). I'll gladly post these with updated stats next season for each game (except FCS Delaware State). Hope you enjoy them.

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Week 1 Chart: North Carolina vs. South Carolina

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Week 1 Head-to-Head: North Carolina vs. South Carolina

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Week 1 Opponent: South Carolina

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Week 1: North Carolina

Week_1_UNC_Table_lq7mj9.png

This post was edited on 4/6 11:42 AM by Raising Heel
 
Originally posted by gunslingerdick:
We're going to win this game.
Click to expand...
agree...watched a couple of practices and scarolina has some serious offensive problems...and i'm not sure spurrier really likes the qb situation.
 
Both teams have new DCs, correct?

I'll have a hard time predicting anything too positive for UNC until I see what our defense does. Have to like our chances catching SCar at a time when they seem vulnerable, though.
 
Throw the chickens' stats from last year away. They will be nowhere near the offensive team they were last year. They're still trying to find a serviceable QB and none of the options are good. None played any significant snaps at all last year.

They also only have one WR who's scary and one returning TE with experience. Lost the left side of their OL and their best RB.

They will be better on D b/c they can't be worse than last year and they've picked up some talent from the JUCO ranks.

However, they have no depth on D and seriously lack speed.

This game comes down to the UNC D. Y'all will torch their defense if your O is in sync for the first game. If your D has improved enough to limit their O, there is no way they'll keep up with your scoring.

I don't know much about your returning D other than the fact that you get some DL back who were unavailable last year.
 
Originally posted by CUTIGER91:
Throw the chickens' stats from last year away. They will be nowhere near the offensive team they were last year. They're still trying to find a serviceable QB and none of the options are good. None played any significant snaps at all last year.

They also only have one WR who's scary and one returning TE with experience. Lost the left side of their OL and their best RB.

They will be better on D b/c they can't be worse than last year and they've picked up some talent from the JUCO ranks.

However, they have no depth on D and seriously lack speed.

This game comes down to the UNC D. Y'all will torch their defense if your O is in sync for the first game. If your D has improved enough to limit their O, there is no way they'll keep up with your scoring.

I don't know much about your returning D other than the fact that you get some DL back who were unavailable last year.
Click to expand...

After reading cockytalk, none of the chicken fans have even considered that they might lose to UNC.
 
Originally posted by UNC_Blue:

Originally posted by CUTIGER91:
Throw the chickens' stats from last year away. They will be nowhere near the offensive team they were last year. They're still trying to find a serviceable QB and none of the options are good. None played any significant snaps at all last year.

They also only have one WR who's scary and one returning TE with experience. Lost the left side of their OL and their best RB.

They will be better on D b/c they can't be worse than last year and they've picked up some talent from the JUCO ranks.

However, they have no depth on D and seriously lack speed.

This game comes down to the UNC D. Y'all will torch their defense if your O is in sync for the first game. If your D has improved enough to limit their O, there is no way they'll keep up with your scoring.

I don't know much about your returning D other than the fact that you get some DL back who were unavailable last year.
Click to expand...

After reading cockytalk, none of the chicken fans have even considered that they might lose to UNC.
Click to expand...
Completely agree with CUtiger.

If the defense even plays decent they should be able to shut down the chickens, their gonna have a hard time scoring next year.

I've said it a million times but USuCk comes out slow week 1 every freakin year. A steady dose of Logan/Hood and quick hitting throws should have them sucking air by the 4th quarter again. If the offense can put up 30+ I think its a sure win for the real Carolina. Looking through my light blue tinted glasses, but I even think this has the makings of a blowout if the Heels can establish the run early, and play any kind of defense at all.
 
Originally posted by uncboy10:
Originally posted by UNC_Blue:

Originally posted by CUTIGER91:
Throw the chickens' stats from last year away. They will be nowhere near the offensive team they were last year. They're still trying to find a serviceable QB and none of the options are good. None played any significant snaps at all last year.

They also only have one WR who's scary and one returning TE with experience. Lost the left side of their OL and their best RB.

They will be better on D b/c they can't be worse than last year and they've picked up some talent from the JUCO ranks.

However, they have no depth on D and seriously lack speed.

This game comes down to the UNC D. Y'all will torch their defense if your O is in sync for the first game. If your D has improved enough to limit their O, there is no way they'll keep up with your scoring.

I don't know much about your returning D other than the fact that you get some DL back who were unavailable last year.
Click to expand...

After reading cockytalk, none of the chicken fans have even considered that they might lose to UNC.
Click to expand...
Completely agree with CUtiger.

If the defense even plays decent they should be able to shut down the chickens, their gonna have a hard time scoring next year.

I've said it a million times but USuCk comes out slow week 1 every freakin year. A steady dose of Logan/Hood and quick hitting throws should have them sucking air by the 4th quarter again. If the offense can put up 30+ I think its a sure win for the real Carolina. Looking through my light blue tinted glasses, but I even think this has the makings of a blowout if the Heels can establish the run early, and play any kind of defense at all.
Click to expand...
I think CU is right on point with what he said ... I would also like to add that the fact that nobody knows what the UNC D will be like is an advantage ... you all have a studly coaching staff with a ton of DC experience and I would imagine that they will have something planned for USCjr ... UNC has less questions about their team ... whereas USCjr needs to find some answers on both sides of the ball .... build some momentum and concentrate with stuffing the USCjr run should equal some points ... if you can make them one dimensional then it should compound in a hurry ... cant go conservative and UNC must win on special teams ... I love the USCjr fanbase because they give me the best laughs when they have a meltdown on their board ... Im NOT going out on a limb here, UNC will win this game ... absolutely love them being overconfident for this one

... for you UNC fans that are still questionable about your defense I would say go and watch the Jeff Schoettmer interview ... I dont know what UNC's depth looked like last year but it seems the your coaches are getting the guys lined up in the right spots ... its all positive anyway
This post was edited on 4/13 1:36 PM by nolegeorge
 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I hear what y'all are saying but South Carolina is still going to win. It's gonna suck and it's gonna piss me off, but this just isn't the type of game UNC wins.

Would LOVE to be wrong. Especially since I'll be in attendance.
 
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Did you watch any of their spring game? Their QB's are......not good. Long balls are ducks.

Only a few WR's were able to get any separation and Spurrier is asking them to work on their speed in the summer :)

Despite not letting the D blitz and only play man-to-man or Cover 3, they scored 27 points (14-13 game). And these were not mixed-up units like you see in most spring games. One of the longest passes was a TD to Darius Rucker for their celebrity TD....and they counted it in the score and stats!

They still have nbo run game and didn't all spring, but they do get some injured OL back for summer.

Their DE's looked a little bit better than last year, but nothing elite. The DT's, on the other hand, are lard butts who can't move at all. You should be able to wear them down pretty quickly.

Again, I see not much O at all and a marginally improved D.

If y'all can overcome the fear of playing against a real, live SEC foe
wink.r191677.gif
, you should win.

Kill 'em.
 
There's no doubt that the staff and players know how huge this game is. If their QB's cant complete passes, it will be much easier for our D to stop them. For me its about the offense getting a quick start and jumping out on top of them early.

I cant wait to watch Elijah Hood bust heads again.
 
Originally posted by CUTIGER91:

If y'all can overcome the fear of playing against a real, live SEC foe
wink.r191677.gif
, you should win.

Kill 'em.
Click to expand...
in so many instances this is the case when teams play the SEC ... but lets face it, the SEC is very talented but that doesnt mean ALL of their teams are good ... find that mean streak UNC !
 
Originally posted by nolegeorge:
Originally posted by CUTIGER91:

If y'all can overcome the fear of playing against a real, live SEC foe
wink.r191677.gif
, you should win.

Kill 'em.
Click to expand...
in so many instances this is the case when teams play the SEC ... but lets face it, the SEC is very talented but that doesnt mean ALL of their teams are good ... find that mean streak UNC !
Click to expand...
It also doesn't mean that we have a host of the teams the ACC with enough talent to beat them routinely if we are well coached.

Our D last year was bad on an epic scale. This D will be young and thin. But the new staff is a game changer. Many players who would have been bored by Disch and Koenning will want to run through a wall for Chizik. Papuchis is another nice upgrade, as is Warren.

So it is possible that this D will play smarter team D than last's year D could think about playing. And that means that opening with USuCk could perfect for the team, because USuCk will start the year slow on offense. If we were to open with a juggernaut offense from the SEC, our D could feel overwhlemed in Game 1 and take half a year to recover. But opening against an SEC offfense that itself has major issues will allow our D to gain its football and thus develop confidence.

On offense, we must make proper use of the RBs.
 
It should be a pretty good game. At this point in the year it's hard to judge what exactly either one of our teams will look like. Chizik was a good hire for y'all.

But both our squads have questions to answer this season. All we can do is wait and see. Wilds is a good back and proved to be reliable when healthy for us and Williams will be pretty good, so as long as we commit to the run and the o-line executes, our running game should be sufficient.

Glad we are playing once again. Border battles are always fun. Good luck this offseason.
 
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So I posted a "roll call" post about this game on the premium board, but since there's already a thread about the game on this board.....

Any of y'all on here gonna make it to this game? Five friends / family members and I will be there early and loud in Carolina blue. I bought tickets through the Ram's Club. Lower level, sideline, should be good seats. I'm pretty psyched for this game, though my opinion on the outcome hasn't changed from what I posted a few posts above.

Anyway, who else is making the trip? Based on some stuff I'm hearing + some dots I'm connecting, we are going to be outnumbered pretty heavily as it stands now.......so we need all the Tar Heels we can get.
 
I'm planning on being there but will probably just try to score a ticket last minute
 
Isn't it funny how the perception of this game has changed over the last several months?

First Spurrier said that he was only going to coach 3 more years, which cost him several prized recruits in the process...Then, UNC makes 3 vital hires on defense, and most now feel that we have a realistic chance to beat the Cocky Cocks!

Must agree with others that a quick start by our offense is a must if we want to win this game.....South Carolina has about as many questions on offense as the Tar Heels do on defense going into this game, so we need to be able to put up points early in this game to put pressure on that questionable Gamecock offense to keep up with us....Also like the fact that it's the first game of the season, and a chance for the Tarheel players to show that last year is in the past, and the future is going to be a whole lot better.....

We need this game more than the Gamecocks!
 
I'm planning on being there. Hope it's as good as LSU in the Georgia Dome was, only this time, we get the W.
 
Or offense will need to carry us, not only in this game but for the year until the defense comes along. If we can't average a few turnovers a game but more importantly force more 3 and outs its going to be tough sledding.
I hope we can find a kicking game this year.
 
J.COX said:
Or offense will need to carry us, not only in this game but for the year until the defense comes along. If we can't average a few turnovers a game but more importantly force more 3 and outs its going to be tough sledding.
I hope we can find a kicking game this year.
Click to expand...

On that note, the schedule should help. The only offense on the first half of the schedule with any real promise is GT, and they should be leaps and bounds better than the next best offense the Heels will have to stop. Significant improvement should be made between weeks 1 and 5 IMO.

The offense absolutely has to be able to get first downs consistently. If you're gonna run the spread 3 and outs have to be an anomaly, or you really shoot your D in the foot. This is where Elijah Hood comes in for me. Dude is a beast and should be able to consistently get 4 or 5 yards on first down to make things easier.

As much as everyone bashes the D, their were moments when it clicked last year, and the D was actually really impressive. Dook, the 2nd half of the UVA game, and 2nd half of VT game all come to mind. I think Chizik gets the D to the point of being closer to that version of the D than the one that gave up 70 to ECU. That was a pathetic display of not only defensive fundamentals, but effort, and I just don't see that being a problem in 2015. What that really tells me though, is that the personnel in place isn't as totally hopeless as they often appeared.

If the Heels beat USuCk, which I think they will, that will completely reshape the mindset of this team. 2015 could be fun, just saying...
 
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