The run this team is on is nothing short of phenomenal. This season has felt much like that 2000 team which really stumbled during the regular season, but found some magic and got a little bit of help in the tournament to find its way to the Final Four. This team is a lot better offensively and a lot worse defensively than that 2000 team. That lack of offense ended up biting them in the Final Four, as they didn't have the firepower to overcome Florida.
Where has that improvement come from, though? If we look at the opponents' % Loss of Ball (the turnovers we are forcing opponents into), we see a very flat trend across the season, and some really mediocre defensive pressure by the Heels since the Pittsburgh game. The guards have not been applying pressure to the ball and to passing lanes like we have traditionally seen. The defensive improvements, therefore, have come from pressuring teams' shots.
The Power Factor is something I came up with that combines the key factors that determine the Margin of Victory in UNC's program: Field Goals Made, 2 pt FG made(-), FG%, 2FG%(-), Rebounding differential, Assist|Turnover Ratio, and Steals. Those designated with a negative actually hurt the team's MOV. Here is how the team performed in the all-important stats as the season progressed:
We can see a very slight downward trend as the season has progressed, but only one dip considerable below average since the Pitt game. That was the VT game in the ACC Tournament. Since the Pitt game? Yeah, a downward trend, but mainly created by the VT game, but also limited by the stiff competition faced in the last 7 games, too.
I'm not sure that any of these stats mean a ton going into the Duke game. My key takeaway is that this team did improve int he last 11 games, but it probably wasn't the marked improvement being talked about in the media. Instead of the team suddenly presenting outstanding play, they seem to have reduced the severe weaknesses, which is nice. Can this team force Duke into more turnovers or are they just who they are? Probably more the latter, but we'll see. As I stated in another thread, Final Fours are weird. There are always players and teams that aren't recognizable. Hopefully Duke will just be the next that just wasn't prepared for the moment.
Offense
This offense is excellent, though it has faded from a hot streak of outside shooting enjoyed before ACC play began. It is the 8th best offense since 1996. In the following graph of offensive efficiency, the flat, black line represents the average offensive efficiency by the last 26 UNC teams. Green is the point that is 1 standard deviation above the average, and pink is 1 standard deviation below average. Therefore 2/3 of the last 955 games fell between the green and pink lines. Much has been made about this team "since the Pitt game". That was game #26. Since that point the team has turned in a few clunkers, UVA, VT, and St. Peters (SPU was awful that game). The peak performance in that period was the @Duke game. Across the entire season, the team has experience the normal decline in offensive performance. Teams tend to improve their defense more than their offense as a season continues, so scoring against those improving opponents has been more difficult.
Defense
Unless you are new here, you'll know that I have been highly critical of this team's defense all season. For most of the season they have shown to be the 2nd worst defensive UNC team since 1996. In this graph, we want to hold teams below that black line, so games above the pink line are bad. As we can see, half of the games since the Pitt game were very good, but half of them haven't been, too. There have been 12 games at or above that pink line, and 3 of them have been in the 11 games since the Pitt game. It does appear that teams performing below 0.85 is much more common than in the first 2/3 of the season, and the trend line is decidedly descending, so unequivocally this team has improved on defense.
Where has that improvement come from, though? If we look at the opponents' % Loss of Ball (the turnovers we are forcing opponents into), we see a very flat trend across the season, and some really mediocre defensive pressure by the Heels since the Pittsburgh game. The guards have not been applying pressure to the ball and to passing lanes like we have traditionally seen. The defensive improvements, therefore, have come from pressuring teams' shots.
Rebounding
While we haven't seen the emphasis on rebounding that we saw with previous teams, this team is actually one of the nation's best at rebounding. We can see an upward trend, and many above average performances in the last 20 games!
Overall Performance
The Dean Smith Index is something I came up with to combine Offensive and Defensive efficiencies. If we take the offensive efficiency excess above 0.95 and the defensive efficiency excess below 0.85, we get a factor that shows how close the team is to meeting Dean Smith's goals. The 26 year average is -0.01. We've seen an upward trend in a season with many lows and few noticeable highs.
The Power Factor is something I came up with that combines the key factors that determine the Margin of Victory in UNC's program: Field Goals Made, 2 pt FG made(-), FG%, 2FG%(-), Rebounding differential, Assist|Turnover Ratio, and Steals. Those designated with a negative actually hurt the team's MOV. Here is how the team performed in the all-important stats as the season progressed:
We can see a very slight downward trend as the season has progressed, but only one dip considerable below average since the Pitt game. That was the VT game in the ACC Tournament. Since the Pitt game? Yeah, a downward trend, but mainly created by the VT game, but also limited by the stiff competition faced in the last 7 games, too.
I'm not sure that any of these stats mean a ton going into the Duke game. My key takeaway is that this team did improve int he last 11 games, but it probably wasn't the marked improvement being talked about in the media. Instead of the team suddenly presenting outstanding play, they seem to have reduced the severe weaknesses, which is nice. Can this team force Duke into more turnovers or are they just who they are? Probably more the latter, but we'll see. As I stated in another thread, Final Fours are weird. There are always players and teams that aren't recognizable. Hopefully Duke will just be the next that just wasn't prepared for the moment.
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