Stat Review: @VT (2/19/22)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	45	39
3FG%	36	52
2FG%	52	53
FT%	87	92
fg%	38	72
3fg%	19	91
2fg%	50	32
ft%	67	54
PTS/POSS	0.92	45
pts/poss	0.76	73
POSS	71	5
POSDIF	-4	19
%LOB	21	13
%lob	12	19
SmithIdx	0.06	64
Interesting Stats
TOTPOSS	146	7
%FROM3	44.9	97
AST/POSS	0.18	38

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reportd
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
The Heels got a much needed win in Blacksburg. It was a close game until UNC's 17-6 run toward the end of the first half, and UNC was pretty much able to make the rest of the game a stalemate. Wait, did I say that UNC did that? VT had a large part, too. The Hokies were absolutely terrible from the floor, and had mostly very good looks. VT shot 19% from behind the arc, a dubious honor only held by 83 opponents in our last 946.

UNC shot the ball from behind the arc well, but took a whopping 45% of their attempts from behind the arc. The 3 is certainly helping UNC's propensity to score, but it just feels like there is too much dribble dribble dribble settle for a 3. This team is averaging 0.181 assists per possession. The 26-year average is 0.199 (std dev 0.014), so we are in the lower 3rd of our teams in the ability to pass, get a shot, and make it.

After the game Dave Nathan was on the radio asking Eric Montross why VT had 64 field goal attempts to UNC's 49. Fifteen FGAs is a large discrepancy (31% more). The 15 extra attempts total comes from:

• 5: UNC had 7 trips (non-and-1s) to the FT line to VT's 2.
• 6: UNC had 6 more turnovers
• 4: VT had 4 more offensive rebounds

This is one of those games where the rebounding stats can be misleading. "UNC outrebounded the Hokies by 7. Dean Smith would say that VT win the rebounding. In the game there were 146 possessions (the 65th slowest-played game since 1996 for the Heels). UNC had 71 and VT had 75, so actually VT got 4 more chances at scoring than UNC did. Kenpom subtracts out those offensive rebounds, so his stats not only remove rebounding from the simple report, but also they distort offensive efficiency. A team that scores 100 points and needs 70 shots at it (with 20 offensive rebounds) just isn't as efficient as a team than scores 100 on 50 shots.

Saturday's game was perhaps the team's first win over an NCAA tournament team this season, which will certainly help the resume. I'm happy that the team was able to keep composure in an away game. It actually marks the first week where we've seen the team play better away than at home. This is a good sign of growth.