Stat Review: @Wake Forest (2/7/23)

[JimmyNaismith]

STAT	VALUE	PCTLE	HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%	41	20
3FG%	22	14
2FG%	46	29
FT%	81	82
fg%	44	39
3fg%	26	75
2fg%	51	28
ft%	79	24
PTS/POSS	0.87	31
pts/poss	1.06	7
TOTPOSS	185	84
POSDIF	11	90
%LOB	12	78
%lob	6	2
SmithIdx	-0.2901	8
Interesting Stats
AST/FG	0.30	1
ast/to	2.40	1
%from3	31	70
%FROM3	24.3	32

Spoiler: "Table Key"

STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

Discussion
One steaming hot pile of it were the Tar Heels for 3/4 of this game. The total stats don't tell the story because UNC mounted a furious comeback in the 4th quarter of the game, but make no mistake, we all saw a broken team. In the first half UNC only mustered 0.57 points per possession while allowing Wake Forest to score 1.15 points per possession. That's a Smith Index (difference) of -0.58. I don't have historical records broken down by half, but the worst whole-game performance by a UNC team was the 2003 game at Maryland where the Terps scored 0.537 points per possession more than the Heels. It's doubtful that UNC has had many halves that were worse than last night's first half.

Once again UNC got 0.30 assists per field goal, a figure that has only been worse in 16 games since 1996. They shot 22% from 3 and 41% from the floor overall.

Defensively the Heels allowed 2.40 assists/turnover. That's a rate that only 33 of the last 982 opponents have reached. We also saw a #1 performance: Wake Forest's Tyree Appleby set an ACC record with his 23 made free throws.

It's a broken record: this team doesn't create turnovers, they don't pass the ball, and they take terrible shots. As long as Hubert Davis allows his players to continue getting playing time without impunity, we won't see a change, and this will be the first preseason #1 team to miss making the NCAA tournament.

 

[TarHeelMark]

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[kjcooper]

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