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Win and We're in

The rankings on Tuesday will likely tell us whether we have a shot or not. I think we need to crack the top 10, but 5 teams ranked ahead of us lost so there's no reason we shouldn't
 
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I think we'll be #9 in the new rankings (we should pass Florida, ND, OkSt, Baylor, and Michigan cuz they all lost). I'd say we should hop FSU too, but doubt that we will. It should help our argument against Stanford that they barely squeaked by ND, and that they'll now play an unranked USC in their championship game.

If USC or Florida win their championship game we should be in with a win over Clemson. If neither does, we need to hope the committee either values our championship win more than OU not playing in a championship game (not likely) or values our 1 loss season and win over #1 more than Stanfords 2 loss season with a win over an unranked team for the Pac12 (more likely, but not guaranteed the way these rankings have gone thus far).

I wouldn't put it past the committee to try to slide a second B1G team in (championship winner is in for sure, but then add either the loser or Ohio state). Regardless we need to beat Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday.
 
I feel certain that we would get the shaft in favor of the committee putting OSU in IF we beat Clemson. Gawd I hate the luckeyes enough already and that would just add to it.
 
Hark is on to something, the PAC12 will do themselves in but the BIG10 is what gets me, when the "experts" valuing their schedule/games over other P5's...at least some of the national folks are recognizing the ACC beyond Klemp's son...
looking at some numbers headed to next weekend, UNC pts for overall are 495 to Klemps 455, pts against UNC overall are 249 and Klemps 226, total wins for the top 4 each div Coastal teams is 23 and 22 Atlantic, loses in top 4 each div are Coastal 10 and Atlantic 9...in conf pts for UNC were 304 to Klemps 340 and pts against in conf were UNC 152 to Klemps 190...
We can win this coming weekend, we cannot have those "shoot ourselves in the foot" moments. NO turnovers. Fewer 3 and outs. A tad more Hood & Logan.
I still say we should have had 62 pts yesterday...
 
Joey Galloway said on CFB Final that ACC Championship is a play in game for playoff. He is an idiot, but I like this comment. Our playoff starts 12/5.
 
Just hope that MQ holds onto the ball vs Clemson or it could be an embarrassing loss.C'mon Heels...you can do this.
 
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Here's how I think the playoff will pan out:

1. Clemson or _____
2. Alabama or _____
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa / Michigan State winner

If Clemson and/or Alabama lose, there are three possible teams for those slots: UNC, Stanford, and Ohio State.

+ Stanford has a CFP Top 25 win over Notre Dame and a CFP Top 25 loss to Northwestern. They also have wins over Washington State and UCLA -- both CFP Top 25 until losses this week -- and another loss to a surging Oregon team. They will be conference champ if they beat USC.

+ UNC has no CFP Top 25 wins but would have one if they beat Clemson. Of course there's the ugly loss to SCar. They will be conference champ if they beat Clemson.

+ Ohio State has a CFP Top 25 win over Michigan and a CFP Top 25 loss to Michigan State. They will not be the conference champion.

To me, Stanford has the best resume of the three. Assuming they beat USC, I'd think they'd get in if either Clemson or Alabama lose. Then the real debate starts. Is a team with 1 good win, 1 bad loss, and a conference championship (UNC) better than a team with 1 good win, 1 good loss, and no conference championship (OSU)? Hard to say, but we'll obviously have to beat Clemson and hope for a Bama loss to even have that discussion.
 
BTW, I've worn my favorite UNC shirt the last 6-7 games of the season. I wore that shirt when we won our last two NCAA titles in hoops. Just washed it so it's ready for Saturday night. It's my strongest mojo item.
 
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NO TURNOVERS! our defense won't stop clem's, but our offense is unstoppable too if we don't turn it over. high scoring fun game to watch... GO HEELS!!!!!!
 
One note to add. I think it sucks that if we beat Clemson, the Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff. Hear me out.

They would be 12-1 with wins against two CFP Top-25 teams (FSU and ND). Their only loss would be to another 12-1 team (UNC) who would probably be in the Top 10 CFP. Frankly, even if we beat them, they would still have a better overall resume than us. There's too much emphasis placed on late-season games and this is a perfect example.
 
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We should be but if everything that needs to happen for us to go happens they will find any way possable to keep us out mark it down 1 or 2 two loss teams will be in before us!
 
TarHeelMark said:
I feel certain that we would get the shaft in favor of the committee putting OSU in IF we beat Clemson. Gawd I hate the luckeyes enough already and that would just add to it.
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The committee bows to the Big Money Big Ten and SEC.
 
I guess I'm confused as to why we would get in ahead of Clemson IF we beat them. Same records at that point but the fact that they've been #1 much of the season and knowing that we'll never jump them in the polls makes me think the committee would never consider us instead of them. Of course I hope I'm wrong but it just doesn't make sense to me. What am I missing?
 
ethanga62890 said:
http://heavy.com/sports/2015/11/col...nel-week-14-sec-acc-pac-12-big-ten-champions/

Judging by this MSU or iowa goes to the playoffs. That's one
Oklahoma. That's 2.
assuming bama wins that's 3.

Who after that? The ACC champion will be in the playoffs be it Clemson or UNC. There is no logical reason to deny our opportunity if we beat clemson.
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I agree and do so regardless of the rankings going in. The ACC is one of the best conferences this year and we'll have 3 top ten teams at the top. If the committee is fair and consistent with it's principles, a one-loss ACC champ has to be in, especially after beating Clemson.
 
bleeduncblue said:
I guess I'm confused as to why we would get in ahead of Clemson IF we beat them. Same records at that point but the fact that they've been #1 much of the season and knowing that we'll never jump them in the polls makes me think the committee would never consider us instead of them. Of course I hope I'm wrong but it just doesn't make sense to me. What am I missing?
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They are supposed to weight for the conference champions.
 
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Raising Heel said:
One note to add. I think it sucks that if we beat Clemson, the Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff. Hear me out.

They would be 12-1 with wins against two CFP Top-25 teams (FSU and ND). Their only loss would be to another 12-1 team (UNC) who would probably be in the Top 10 CFP. Frankly, even if we beat them, they would still have a better overall resume than us. There's too much emphasis placed on late-season games and this is a perfect example.
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Too much emphasis EXCEPT when talking of the Heels, it seems. Then, it's that one loss in the season opener, close game, obviously lost due to turnovers,....then it seems to be the whole world.

Arguably, if we win, both us and Clemson should be in. Clemson will still have deserved it but they claim to weight for conference champions.

Now, if Stanford and Alabama lose, and we beat Clemson, then UNC should be in and Clemson should be in ahead of Ohio State. That's possible since you would have a 2-loss Alabama and 2-loss and 3-loss conference champs. That happens, both UNC and Clemson should get in if the committee is fair.
 
Raising Heel said:
Here's how I think the playoff will pan out:

1. Clemson or _____
2. Alabama or _____
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa / Michigan State winner

If Clemson and/or Alabama lose, there are three possible teams for those slots: UNC, Stanford, and Ohio State.

+ Stanford has a CFP Top 25 win over Notre Dame and a CFP Top 25 loss to Northwestern. They also have wins over Washington State and UCLA -- both CFP Top 25 until losses this week -- and another loss to a surging Oregon team. They will be conference champ if they beat USC.

+ UNC has no CFP Top 25 wins but would have one if they beat Clemson. Of course there's the ugly loss to SCar. They will be conference champ if they beat Clemson.

+ Ohio State has a CFP Top 25 win over Michigan and a CFP Top 25 loss to Michigan State. They will not be the conference champion.

To me, Stanford has the best resume of the three. Assuming they beat USC, I'd think they'd get in if either Clemson or Alabama lose. Then the real debate starts. Is a team with 1 good win, 1 bad loss, and a conference championship (UNC) better than a team with 1 good win, 1 good loss, and no conference championship (OSU)? Hard to say, but we'll obviously have to beat Clemson and hope for a Bama loss to even have that discussion.
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Stanford will not have beaten anyone of the caliber of Clemson, and we would have beaten 6 straight bowl eligible teams. They would have beaten 7 but they would have 2 losses. Losses count against resume or should. The ACC will have 3 top 10 ten teams this week. You don't take a 2-loss Pac 12 champ over a one-loss ACC champ when the ACC is as good as it is this year.
 
ethanga62890 said:
http://heavy.com/sports/2015/11/col...nel-week-14-sec-acc-pac-12-big-ten-champions/

Judging by this MSU or iowa goes to the playoffs. That's one
Oklahoma. That's 2.
assuming bama wins that's 3.

Who after that? The ACC champion will be in the playoffs be it Clemson or UNC. There is no logical reason to deny our opportunity if we beat clemson.
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My thoughts are

1. We would have to first be Top 10 in the new CFP rankings. With the losses this week, I think we could move to at most #8, while also Jumping Florida State because we are in the conference championship with no ACC losses, and they have 2

2. We would have to beat Clemson by 2 touchdowns or more.

Then, we would have a chance.
 
bleeduncblue said:
I guess I'm confused as to why we would get in ahead of Clemson IF we beat them. Same records at that point but the fact that they've been #1 much of the season and knowing that we'll never jump them in the polls makes me think the committee would never consider us instead of them. Of course I hope I'm wrong but it just doesn't make sense to me. What am I missing?
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To be the man ya got to beat the man, when ya beat the man you are the man !
 
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Raising Heel said:
Here's how I think the playoff will pan out:

1. Clemson or _____
2. Alabama or _____
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa / Michigan State winner

If Clemson and/or Alabama lose, there are three possible teams for those slots: UNC, Stanford, and Ohio State.

+ Stanford has a CFP Top 25 win over Notre Dame and a CFP Top 25 loss to Northwestern. They also have wins over Washington State and UCLA -- both CFP Top 25 until losses this week -- and another loss to a surging Oregon team. They will be conference champ if they beat USC.

+ UNC has no CFP Top 25 wins but would have one if they beat Clemson. Of course there's the ugly loss to SCar. They will be conference champ if they beat Clemson.

+ Ohio State has a CFP Top 25 win over Michigan and a CFP Top 25 loss to Michigan State. They will not be the conference champion.

To me, Stanford has the best resume of the three. Assuming they beat USC, I'd think they'd get in if either Clemson or Alabama lose. Then the real debate starts. Is a team with 1 good win, 1 bad loss, and a conference championship (UNC) better than a team with 1 good win, 1 good loss, and no conference championship (OSU)? Hard to say, but we'll obviously have to beat Clemson and hope for a Bama loss to even have that discussion.
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We can always dream that we beat Clemson, and both Alabama and Stanford lose.
 
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Assuming we get in cfp top ten. We need stanford and ala to lose. Thats the only way.

And like earlier said. Clemson even with losing to us, wiuld have a better resume than us. They will have beaten TWO top ten teams and their only loss being to a top ten team. I would not be shocked if committee keeps them in top 4 with a loss.
 
heelmanwilm said:
Assuming we get in cfp top ten. We need stanford and ala to lose. Thats the only way.

And like earlier said. Clemson even with losing to us, wiuld have a better resume than us. They will have beaten TWO top ten teams and their only loss being to a top ten team. I would not be shocked if committee keeps them in top 4 with a loss.
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I don't see it. Stanford will not have played a tougher schedule than we have and they will have 2 losses. The PAC 12 is the weakest P-5 conference.

The ACC has 3 legit top 10 teams with a total of 9 bowl eligible teams. Big Ten has 3 legit top 10 teams with 8 bowl eligible teams. The SEC has 1 top 10 team with 10 bowl eligible teams. PAC 12 has one top 10 team with 2 losses (dubious ranking) with 10 bowl eligible teams. Big 12 has just 4 bowl eligible teams with one top 10 team, albeit 4 ranked teams. So what's the strongest conference THIS year? Yet the talk if as if the ACC is a weak conference. Just isn't true this year, and the ACC champ whomever it is, deserves to be in the playoffs. Just don't get all this talk about a 2-loss Stanford. Their schedule will not have been better than UNC if they win. Nor better than Clemson should Clemson lose.
 
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heelmanwilm said:
Assuming we get in cfp top ten. We need stanford and ala to lose. Thats the only way.

And like earlier said. Clemson even with losing to us, wiuld have a better resume than us. They will have beaten TWO top ten teams and their only loss being to a top ten team. I would not be shocked if committee keeps them in top 4 with a loss.
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Well, that would make a lot more sense than Stanford getting in ahead of either us or Clemson.
 
heelmanwilm said:
And like earlier said. Clemson even with losing to us, wiuld have a better resume than us. They will have beaten TWO top ten teams and their only loss being to a top ten team. I would not be shocked if committee keeps them in top 4 with a loss.
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Someone made a good point about this. The committee has stressed the importance of conference champions in their criteria. So while I agree Clemson would still have a better overall record, we might get more consideration as the champ.
 
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Raising Heel said:
Someone made a good point about this. The committee has stressed the importance of conference champions in their criteria. So while I agree Clemson would still have a better overall record, we might get more consideration as the champ.[/QUOT
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And, IF we were to beat them, I would hope the "head to head" would get consideration.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
Stanford gets in over us unless they lose. Period. And frankly it's hard to argue against it.
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Why?

They have 2 losses.
After we play Clemson and assuming we win, many still say we could be kept out due a weak schedule. Well, compared to whom?

Our quality wins:

Clemson, number one team in the nation (best quality win of anyone with the exception possibly of Michigan State beating Ohio State as equivalent)
Pitt (8-4 and probably a top 40 team)
Miami (8-4 and probably a top 40 team)
Duke (7-5 and probably a top 50 team)
NC State at home (7-5 and probably top 40-50 team)
VA Tech at home, last home game for Beamer (6-6, not sure where they would stand nationally but bowl eligible in a yr with a lack of bowl eligible teams)

I don't count Illinois as a quality win but they are still a good win.

Stanford quality wins (note they played UCF who went 0-12 and Oregon State that went 2-10.....so don't talk about FCS schools)

Notre Dame
USC (8-4)
Washington State (8-4))
UCLA (8-4)
Washington (6-6)
Arizona (6-6

They lost to Oregon (8-3) and Northwestern (10-2). They have 6 quality wins and so do we. Our's are better or will be if we beat Clemson.

They have 2 losses. We have one and controlled every game but GA Tech, which we won.
 
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Raising Heel said:
One note to add. I think it sucks that if we beat Clemson, the Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff. Hear me out.

They would be 12-1 with wins against two CFP Top-25 teams (FSU and ND). Their only loss would be to another 12-1 team (UNC) who would probably be in the Top 10 CFP. Frankly, even if we beat them, they would still have a better overall resume than us. There's too much emphasis placed on late-season games and this is a perfect example.
Click to expand...




This is why Playoffs should be like Div.II, a true winner is determined and nobody is left out,but thanks to Bowl Games,$$$$$ we'll never see it.
 
Unfortunately this mess has been going on for decades and it didn't change with the playoffs. Every year it seems like there are one or two teams with the resume to get into the NC hunt who are left out. Before the playoff it was which bowl games would pick whom and there was ALWAYS someone left out of a premier bowl. Happened to us in '97. Frankly, I hope that IF we beat Clemson that we get in, but I don't expect that to happen. I think that IF we beat Clemson we will get a really good bowl game, but that is it unless some of those teams ahead of us lose. Like Alabama & Stanford even though I think when you compare apples to apples we should get in over Stanford no matter what. Problem is politics and Stanford has more insiders than we do. Sad to say, but we all know that it is a long shot for us to get in no matter what we do.

About the only way this will ever come close to being solved is a bigger playoff system, like expanding the current playoffs to 8 teams. Granted, there will still be teams in the 9-15 range who will feel slighted even though, realistically, they would have almost no chance at winning it all. I personally hope they expand it to 8 teams soon so we can have a more legitimate champion crowned. I think that is a good number and won't put too much of a burden on teams with the extra games. First, only 4 teams are guaranteed to play more than 1 extra game and only 2 are guaranteed to play 3 extra games, so it shouldn't be a big deal.
 
Archer2 said:
BTW, I've worn my favorite UNC shirt the last 6-7 games of the season. I wore that shirt when we won our last two NCAA titles in hoops. Just washed it so it's ready for Saturday night. It's my strongest mojo item.
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I have worn one of two shirts in the same winning streak. Depends how warm it is. Wore a nice New Polo the first game. And we lost haven't worn it since.
 
Northwestern beat Stanford 16-6 and dook 19-10 and lost by 30 or more to Mechegan and Iowa (Iowa's signature victory). I know the NW win over Stanford was early but so was our loss to SoCar and we beat dook like a ginger stepchild. Sooooo if we beat Clem that will be our signature win and Stanford's would be ND who Clemson beat and we would have 1 loss and Stanford 2 . You draw your own conclusions.
 
carolinablue4lyfe said:
My thoughts are

1. We would have to first be Top 10 in the new CFP rankings. With the losses this week, I think we could move to at most #8, while also Jumping Florida State because we are in the conference championship with no ACC losses, and they have 2

2. We would have to beat Clemson by 2 touchdowns or more.

Then, we would have a chance.
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Took the words right out of my mouth. They would have to be Top 8 to show the committee is concidering us.
 
strummingram said:
I don't see how Stanford gets in over us.

They are eventually going to have to expand this to include 6 or 8 teams.
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Easy Standford is and has been a better football school than us. Maybe not this year. But they have been playing good football ever since Andrew Luck got there. You can say that the committee is bias is BS. They ended up being right last year. But be honest. How did Ohio State end up getting in the final four last year. BEING A FOOTBALL BRAND!!!!!! If basketball was done like this. Last year we could be OhioState of last year. They are human. And they know past history. Where as a computer doesn't factor that in.
 
bobby121567 said:
Easy Standford is and has been a better football school than us. Maybe not this year. But they have been playing good football ever since Andrew Luck got there. You can say that the committee is bias is BS. They ended up being right last year. But be honest. How did Ohio State end up getting in the final four last year. BEING A FOOTBALL BRAND!!!!!! If basketball was done like this. Last year we could be OhioState of last year. They are human. And they know past history. Where as a computer doesn't factor that in.
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Except Ohio State had only one loss and actually looked like they could be the best team in the nation. Stanford this year is no Ohio State last year. Nor this year. They are not a top 4 team or sure don't look like it, and the PAC 12 is not as dominant this year.

The ACC has 3 teams in the top 10. A one-loss ACC champ should be in over the PAC 12 champ this year.
 
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