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UNC women's basketball team

Congrats to the lady's team today, finally ended a four game losing skid. Beat Notre Dame 60 to 50, to avoid going 0-4 to start the ACC campaign. Still not scoring at the pace they were earlier in the year, only been in the 60's in scoring lately. Hoping they will gather themselves and make a decent run through the balance of the ACC schedule.

Stat Review: Notre Dame (1/8/23)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%4854
UNC_statBox_50.png

3FG%4270
UNC_statBox_70.png

2FG%5044
UNC_statBox_40.png

FT%5815
UNC_statBox_10.png

fg%4250
UNC_statBox_45.png

3fg%3932
UNC_statBox_30.png

2fg%4364
UNC_statBox_60.png

ft%5089
UNC_statBox_85.png

PTS/POSS1.0069
UNC_statBox_70.png

pts/poss0.8645
UNC_statBox_45.png

TOTPOSS15519
UNC_statBox_15.png

POSDIF776
UNC_statBox_75.png

%LOB1090
UNC_statBox_85.png

%lob1114
UNC_statBox_10.png

SmithIdx0.035160
UNC_statBox_55.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.6159
UNC_statBox_55.png

AST/TO2.3891
UNC_statBox_90.png

%RMS0.3863
UNC_statBox_60.png

%FROM329.253
UNC_statBox_50.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC came away with a nice, clean performance against a bad team. The game was a very slow tempo, and featured very few turnovers and free throws. UNC shared the ball well, continuing their upward trend of assists. In the 7 games since the loss at Virginia Tech, UNC has exceeded their program average of 0.59 assists per field goal 3 times along with 2 near-average performances. In the previous 9 games, their only performances exceeding 0.50 A/FG were 0.52, 0.55, and 0.55.

There weren't many historic elements to this game other than the Percentage Loss of Ball, which ranked as the 78th cleanest game in their last 974. The Assists|Turnover ratio was their 72nd cleanest game in that period.

I haven't compared other teams' schedules, but I can't imagine anyone has a tougher remaining 15 games in the ACC than UNC. All road games are tough, and there are 7 home games featuring only 3 bad teams (BC, NCSU, Clemson). The other 4 home games are against Pitt (revenge), #12 Miami, #11 UVA, and #16 Duke. In those 15 remaining games, 7 of those games come against the league's top third.

Tuesday's game at UVA should be the toughest remaining game on the schedule. The Heels haven't won there in over a decade, and this should be a good one.

Do Players Do Better or Worse After Transferring? And What About the Teams They Leave Behind?

Personally I like the new transfer rules. I like that a player who feels under-used or under-appreciated doesn't have to pay a penalty to find a better situation. But . . . .

Are there any intelligent numbers on whether kids who transfer actually do better? Where by "intelligent numbers" I mean taking into account reasonable factors. For example, if Kessler had stayed with us, he certainly would have done a lot better as a soph, so you can't just point to him and say he benefited by leaving. Might be true, but he would have benefited by staying, too. So how much of that, if any, is due to transferring?

I assume most transfers aren't like that.

If you look at their numbers, both Pete Nance and his Northwestern teammate Ryan Young, now at Duke, are doing noticeably better on eFG% and TS%. Both are playing a few more minutes than they did last year. OTOH, both are taking noticeably fewer shots. I'd say the move was good for Young, not so clear for Nance.

Meanwhile, the team they left, Northwestern, seems improved. This time last year they were 8-4 with no bad losses, but no particularly good wins, either. This year they are 11-3 with no bad losses and a couple of decent wins (MSU and Illinois). Addition by subtraction? And while Collins did pick up a big from the portal, he isn't starting and is doing worse than at his previous school. A good addition for Northwestern, but not necessarily for the player.

Meanwhile, Kerwin's move doesn't seem to have helped him.

So anyway . . . even if transfers don't always do better, I still like the freedom the new rules give players. And of course Hubert seems to be pretty good in the portal.

What do you guys think?

Question: How realistic is it the Heels don't win again? (Updated 12-20: How possible is a win over Oregon?)

These next three games will all be challenging, but UNC could win them and sit at 8-1 going to Wake Forest on Nov. 12. The Heels are at Duke this weekend, are off the following Saturday, then host Pitt before traveling to UVA.

So, what are the odds Carolina is 8-1 going into the Wake game, and if they are, what will they be ranked at that time?

Notre Dame-UNC Postgame Notes

CAROLINA 81, NOTRE DAME 64
JANUARY 4, 2023
ROY WILLIAMS COURT AT THE DEAN E. SMITH CENTER
CHAPEL HILL, N.C.

UNC Scoring Leader: Armando Bacot 21
UNC Rebound Leader: Bacot 13
UNC Assist Leader: RJ Davis 5
Team Records: UNC 11-5, 3-2 ACC; Notre Dame 8-8, 0-5 ACC

• Carolina is 8-0 at home this season.
• The Tar Heels have won six of their last seven games.
• Armando Bacot posted his ninth double-double of the season and 58th career double-double with game highs in points (21) and rebounds (13). He is two double-doubles from tying Billy Cunningham’s school record.
• Bacot passed College Basketball Hall of Famer Sam Perkins for second place in UNC history in rebounds. Bacot has 1,168, one more than Perkins.
• It was Bacot’s 18th career game with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds and his 65th with 10 or more rebounds.
• Bacot tied Duke’s Randy Denton (1968-71) for 10th in ACC history with 58 double-doubles.
• It was Bacot’s fifth straight 20-point game, the longest streak in his career.
• Bacot has 12 assists in the last three games, including nine in the last two wins.
• UNC is 6-2 this year and 19-5 in the last four seasons when Bacot scores at least 20 points.
• Bacot entered the game leading the ACC and third nationally in offensive rebounds per game with 4.5 per game. He grabbed six of his 13 boards today on the offensive glass (Notre Dame had seven offensive rebounds).
• Caleb Love made three three-pointers. He has made a three in 44 straight games, extending his school record (Marcus Paige is second with 41).
• Love made three 3FGs in the first half (he made three in the previous three games combined).
• Love scored 18 points vs. the Irish; he scored a combined 14 in the previous two games.
• Puff Johnson scored a season-high 11 points (previous was 10 in the four-overtime game vs. Alabama when he played a career-high 48 minutes).
• This was the fifth time Johnson has scored in double figures as a Tar Heel.
• Johnson scored six first-half points and was a plus 12 in the opening half.
• Johnson made two threes, the first time this season he made two in a game. He made two at NC State last season.
• Carolina entered the game averaging 4.2 blocks per game. The Tar Heels blocked five in the first half and finished with six.
• Seth Trimble made his first start in place of Pete Nance, who has a strained back.
• Trimble has blocked four shots in the last two games (two vs. Wake Forest and two vs. Notre Dame).
• RJ Davis led UNC with five assists. UNC is 5-0 this season and 17-1 in the last three seasons when Davis has five or more assists.
• Davis had five assists and only one turnover. UNC is 9-2 this year and 40-11 in his career when Davis has more assists than turnovers.
• Carolina had 19 assists on 31 field goals (61.3%) and committed only eight turnovers.
• Leaky Black had three assists and no turnovers. Carolina is 29-5 over the last three seasons when he has three or more.
• This was the seventh straight game UNC had more assists than turnovers. The Tar Heels are 6-1 in those games. That followed a four-game stretch, all of which UNC lost, when Carolina had more turnovers than assists.
• UNC has 41 more assists than turnovers in the last seven games.
• Carolina led 41-28 at the half. The 13-point margin tied UNC’s largest halftime lead in an ACC game this season (led Georgia Tech 39-26 on December 10).
• Notre Dame pulled within seven points at 61-54 before a 7-0 UNC run. RJ Davis hit a jumper, Puff Johnson scored on a fastbreak, Davis added a free throw and Leaky Black made a shot in the lane to increase the lead to 14.
• This was only the second time in 16 games UNC had a different starting lineup than the five players who have started the other 14 games. UNC lost at Virginia Tech on December 4 without Bacot, who had a sprained shoulder.
• Carolina made 8 of 19 three-pointers, a percentage of .421 that was the third highest in a game this season and the highest in an ACC game (.500 vs. Portland and .484 vs. The Citadel).
• Carolina has made 52 threes in the last six games (6.5 per game).

Series vs. Notre Dame
• Carolina leads 28-9, including 12-5 since the Irish joined the ACC in men’s basketball.
• The Tar Heels have won 10 of the last 12.
• UNC is 9-1 at home vs. the Irish, including 8-1 in the Smith Center.

Next Game: January 10 at Virginia, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
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