2016: A step back? Let's talk about it.

[TarHeelNation11]

This is not my attempt at being "doom and gloom" or naysaying. This is merely my attempt to objectively look at the upcoming season while simultaneously reflecting on the 2015 campaign. Here's my take. I welcome challenges, criticism, alternative points of view, etc.
________________________________________________________

I've been thinking about this season a lot and I've been trying to quell this bad feeling that's growing in my mind, but I can't really stop myself from feeling that we're going to take a step back this year. And by step back, I mean 1-3 less wins than in 2015. Can y'all talk me out of this? Here are my concerns:

1. Defense, defense, defense. Our defensive line just is not where it needs to be. It'll be better than last year (I love that he battled, but a guy like Justin Thomason had no business starting on a team that played in a Power 5 conference championship game) but not that much better. I guess Jalen Dalton could be a pivotal piece if he really ups his game, but I have my doubts. Hell, IMO he should still be at defensive end. I truly don't get why a) we moved him inside, and b) why we didn't just redshirt him. He didn't do even remotely enough of value in meaningful games to warrant burning his redshirt. Beyond the DL, you've got potential galore at LB, but nevertheless, it's all question marks. Sure Andre Smith was good last year, but now he has to run the show. Will Cayson Collins break out? Who will the other starter be? Could JB Copeland (badass name) become a good player for us? Will J Smith start as a true frosh? A ton of questions at LB which is a huge concern. Finally, you've got the DBs who have lost depth thanks to Mike Hughes leaving the team. Yikes.

2. How quickly it takes Mitch to get into 5th gear. I'm not worried about Mitch's overall play; he's gonna be really good for us. But the problem is, what if he takes a couple games to get into the groove? We could easily be 0-2 by the time he fully hits his stride. There's no N.C. A&T or Elon season opener for Mitch to get his feet wet. His first start will be in the Georgia Dome in front of ~48,000 LOUD, drunk, barking UGA fans. Good luck, kid. I happen to think Mitch has a ton of moxy, but if he doesn't hit the ground running, we will lose to UGA, as I noted on my "Will we beat UGA?" thread on Blitz. Then we go to Champaign to face Illinois. Are the Illini very good? No. But you're going to their place and if you're coming off a deflating loss in yet another high-profile season opener, it could go sideways quickly.

3. Dealing with success. As we are all painfully aware, Carolina is not used to being the hunted in football. Teams will give us a better effort this year. How will we cope with that?

4. Lack of continuity with the offensive play-calling. Yes I know it's Larry's offense, but still, we now have Kap calling plays. This dovetails with Mitch finding his rhythm sooner rather than later. It could be an issue.

5. Our away schedule. Yikes. At UGA (for all intents and purposes), at FSU, at Duke on a Thursday night, at Miami with a rejuvenated fanbase due to Mark Richt,....it's a stronger schedule this year for sure. At FSU terrifies me. Dalvin Cook might run for 200 yards against us.

6. Dealing with the bounces not going our way -- let's face it, we got a lot of fortunate breaks last year such as the timely takeaways after letting the other team drive the length of the field, the dropped sure-fire pick 6 by the GT DB on the goal-line, etc. What happens this season when some of those breaks go against us rather than for us? Can we cope?

Gun to my head, I say 8-4 (5-3). What say you?

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

I'm not as well-informed on the team as some on here I'm guessing - I haven't seen any season previews discussing the team to base my opinions on. Maybe before the season starts up I'll find some good previews so that I actually have more idea of what I'm talking about in terms of strengths/weaknesses of various position groups, etc.

But I'm feeling 9-3 (6-2) - maybe that's some optimism left over from the surprise performance last year. I think we lose to UGA to open up the season, and lose @FSU - those are fairly definite I think, part of the whole mantra of UNC not being able to beat "name" schools in football. Fortunately neither of those are Coastal games. But I do see us dropping one Coastal game (probably @Miami, but vs. VT and @Duke are candidates as well I guess). Hopefully we get a little help after that, and either end up in 3 way tie (whats the tie-breaker for that again?) with the team we lost to (if its Miami most likely) or just beat them outright in record (if its VT or Duke) and can make a return trip to the ACCCG. I assume we'd lose again in the CG if we made it, because FSU and Clemson are just that much ahead of where we are as a program, but making it again would be a big "win" for the program.

 

[6666Heel]

This is not my attempt at being "doom and gloom" or naysaying. This is merely my attempt to objectively look at the upcoming season while simultaneously reflecting on the 2015 campaign. Here's my take. I welcome challenges, criticism, alternative points of view, etc.
________________________________________________________

I've been thinking about this season a lot and I've been trying to quell this bad feeling that's growing in my mind, but I can't really stop myself from feeling that we're going to take a step back this year. And by step back, I mean 1-3 less wins than in 2015. Can y'all talk me out of this? Here are my concerns:

1. Defense, defense, defense. Our defensive line just is not where it needs to be. It'll be better than last year (I love that he battled, but a guy like Justin Thomason had no business starting on a team that played in a Power 5 conference championship game) but not that much better. I guess Jalen Dalton could be a pivotal piece if he really ups his game, but I have my doubts. Hell, IMO he should still be at defensive end. I truly don't get why a) we moved him inside, and b) why we didn't just redshirt him. He didn't do even remotely enough of value in meaningful games to warrant burning his redshirt. Beyond the DL, you've got potential galore at LB, but nevertheless, it's all question marks. Sure Andre Smith was good last year, but now he has to run the show. Will Cayson Collins break out? Who will the other starter be? Could JB Copeland (badass name) become a good player for us? Will J Smith start as a true frosh? A ton of questions at LB which is a huge concern. Finally, you've got the DBs who have lost depth thanks to Mike Hughes leaving the team. Yikes.

2. How quickly it takes Mitch to get into 5th gear. I'm not worried about Mitch's overall play; he's gonna be really good for us. But the problem is, what if he takes a couple games to get into the groove? We could easily be 0-2 by the time he fully hits his stride. There's no N.C. A&T or Elon season opener for Mitch to get his feet wet. His first start will be in the Georgia Dome in front of ~48,000 LOUD, drunk, barking UGA fans. Good luck, kid. I happen to think Mitch has a ton of moxy, but if he doesn't hit the ground running, we will lose to UGA, as I noted on my "Will we beat UGA?" thread on Blitz. Then we go to Champaign to face Illinois. Are the Illini very good? No. But you're going to their place and if you're coming off a deflating loss in yet another high-profile season opener, it could go sideways quickly.

3. Dealing with success. As we are all painfully aware, Carolina is not used to being the hunted in football. Teams will give us a better effort this year. How will we cope with that?

4. Lack of continuity with the offensive play-calling. Yes I know it's Larry's offense, but still, we now have Kap calling plays. This dovetails with Mitch finding his rhythm sooner rather than later. It could be an issue.

5. Our away schedule. Yikes. At UGA (for all intents and purposes), at FSU, at Duke on a Thursday night, at Miami with a rejuvenated fanbase due to Mark Richt,....it's a stronger schedule this year for sure. At FSU terrifies me. Dalvin Cook might run for 200 yards against us.

6. Dealing with the bounces not going our way -- let's face it, we got a lot of fortunate breaks last year such as the timely takeaways after letting the other team drive the length of the field, the dropped sure-fire pick 6 by the GT DB on the goal-line, etc. What happens this season when some of those breaks go against us rather than for us? Can we cope?

Gun to my head, I say 8-4 (5-3). What say you?

Valid questions and concerns - yes the schedule does lay out as more challenging than last yr, esp with UGA and FSU replacing last yr's SC dumpster fire in Cola, and the less than challenging Deacs. And I kinda think the Canes under Richt have already circled that game in Miami with payback in mind!! Clearly, we're facing 7 teams with new HC's in place (apparently significant upgrades in most, if not all situations) and UNC WILL be among the "hunted" much more so than last yr.

I believe that UNC WILL also be a better team next yr, especially on Defense, but road games in GA, at FSU and Miami are going to be very challenging to say the least. Overall, our guys will be more experienced and the 2nd yr of the Chizik defensive era means we go to Atlanta with guys who are comfortable with what they're doing, and they have matured significantly both mentally and physically since the beginning of last yr. But I concur, 11-1 regular season is going to be tough to repeat. I think we will be "in" every game to the finish, and probably finish the regular season with 2, maybe 3 losses. However, if this team regains the momentum and mental toughness they displayed up until the BS "offsides" on kickoff call in the ACCCG last yr, an undefeated regular season IS definitely possible (but I wouldn't "bet the ranch" on it).

 

[heelmanwilm]

I agree thn. We could easily have a better team but worse record. The way clemson and baylor moved the ball was a big reality check. We dont have the depth or talent esp on d to be a perennial ten win team yet. 9 wins would be great.

 

[Realfreedom]

I do agree that the record will be worse, but I do not think a step back in record is a step back for the program. With our offense we are in every game with a chance to win, well, maybe not FSU, but who knows. This is a pivotal year for us. I do think between 8 - 10 wins this year. 10 wins and a bowl victory will help to continue the process this program is making. The missing piece is the big uglies on the D line.

If Mitch hits the ground running the sky is the limit, but I do not expect another 11-1 record going into the ACC Championship game, I will be fine going into that game and 9-3 .

 

[blazers]

I could easily see our record dropping, and perhaps not finishing 15th in the nation, but I think it will be a fun yr.

# 2, 5, and my 7 seven worry me.

1. I see the defense being about the same. Games are won in the trenches and I have trouble seeing us much better this yr given the lack of depth and the inexperience at LB. Corey Bell had nice plays during spring gm, Corner might be just fine again.

2. Mitch is a definitely small question mark that could make or break us.

3. We're plenty hunted by ncsu, dook, uva, vatech every yr. Plenty of teams are going to want vengeance but this set of guys are going to be hungry to make a name for themselves.

4. Playcalling under Littrell worked, but didn't seem all that magical. I feel the execution of plays was more important for us than the timing/sequence. So I'm not worried about Kap at all.

5. @UGA , @FSU are daunting, but Miami usually has a lame crowd. @dook fits okay with the bigger schedule. BYE, GT, @Dook, Citadel. Sore knees aside, we'll be good to go. Dook has VT at home the prior week. GT, Pitt, VaTech all at home is good since I feel they're better than dook, uva this yr.

6. The CU offsides, MW's Scar breakdown, the MW VAtech breakdown, the Logan fumble vs Baylor. I feel we had breaks go our way, but not overwhelmingly so.

An addition. 7. - injuries / snake biting. I feel we were relatively injury free last yr when & where it mattered. Baylor without Jones/Smiley sucked, but otherwise this area seemed okay. But it seems like we're kinda thin everywhere, one CB or one DE goes down and we're playing backups or guys that should be redshirting . Guys need to hit the books, stay out of frat court and away from hotel-hazing.

All those new coaches can impact fundamentals and attitude, but they can't swap personnel in the trenches. Regular season - 9 wins.

 

[coedean]

Our defense should be better this year. Do not underestimate our defensive staff or the growth of some underclassmen.

 

[JimmyinVA]

we have some great receivers who will be awesome weapons with an accurate passer at quarterback. we have outstanding running backs who are primed for a great year. we have some excellent young talent coming in and defensive coaches who know what they're doing. i expect an improved version of carolina football next season.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Anyone else concerned about someone new calling the plays? After all, Kap is an OLine coach, not a QBs or RBs coach. Or do y'all think it will be pretty seamless because it's still Fedora's system?

 

[blazers]

Anyone else concerned about someone new calling the plays? After all, Kap is an OLine coach, not a QBs or RBs coach. Or do y'all think it will be pretty seamless because it's still Fedora's system?

I said above that I didn't think there would be a drop-off considering Lattrell didn't seem like a magician in terms of sequence or rhythm, but It will be kinda interesting to see how the coaches implement their system for relaying calls, relaying what they see from the upstairs box, etc. I'm thinking Kap will stay on the field.

I heard an interview with him or other coaches discussing how much of a group effort their play-calling is anyway, not just in game prep, but during the game. Fed is on the field an would sometimes request a specific play even though he obviously isn't seeing stuff from the box with his own eyes.

 

[coedean]

I think Fedora will take a bigger role in play calling.

 

[94tarheel]

[QUOTE="TarHeelNation11, post: 545400, member: 2472

1. Defense, defense, defense. Our defensive line just is not where it needs to be. It'll be better than last year (I love that he battled, but a guy like Justin Thomason had no business starting on a team that played in a Power 5 conference championship game) but not that much better. I guess Jalen Dalton could be a pivotal piece if he really ups his game, but I have my doubts. Hell, IMO he should still be at defensive end. I truly don't get why a) we moved him inside, and b) why we didn't just redshirt him. He didn't do even remotely enough of value in meaningful games to warrant burning his redshirt. Beyond the DL, you've got potential galore at LB, but nevertheless, it's all question marks. Sure Andre Smith was good last year, but now he has to run the show. Will Cayson Collins break out? Who will the other starter be? Could JB Copeland (badass name) become a good player for us? Will J Smith start as a true frosh? A ton of questions at LB which is a huge concern. Finally, you've got the DBs who have lost depth thanks to Mike Hughes leaving the team. Yikes. 2nd year with coaches who teach the game rather than roll the players out and say go get them. The defense will be much better than last season regardless of DT depth and/or talent. Now that Chizik and company have worked with these players and the players know what their coaches want, I believe the Defense will not be too much of a drag on the team. I believe the coaches kept the D on the vanilla side of things and this year you will see much more with regard to blitzes and schemes. The LB corp will be the strength and after the Baylor fiasco, motivation will not be an issue for this group.

2. How quickly it takes Mitch to get into 5th gear. I'm not worried about Mitch's overall play; he's gonna be really good for us. But the problem is, what if he takes a couple games to get into the groove? We could easily be 0-2 by the time he fully hits his stride. There's no N.C. A&T or Elon season opener for Mitch to get his feet wet. His first start will be in the Georgia Dome in front of ~48,000 LOUD, drunk, barking UGA fans. Good luck, kid. I happen to think Mitch has a ton of moxy, but if he doesn't hit the ground running, we will lose to UGA, as I noted on my "Will we beat UGA?" thread on Blitz. Then we go to Champaign to face Illinois. Are the Illini very good? No. But you're going to their place and if you're coming off a deflating loss in yet another high-profile season opener, it could go sideways quickly. Delaware game, UVa game, other games where Mitch stepped in cold and immediately produced with a TD pass and not just managing the O with MW got himself together. That is the reason why I feel this kid will hit the ground running. Dude has waited for this opportunity and the UGa game will be his coming out party. Switz is his go to guy but remember his team as a backup has allowed him to develop relationships with the non starters. Say hello to an extremely productive relationship with the Vandy transfer. I am sure some chemistry developed between the two as they waited for their chance.

3. Dealing with success. As we are all painfully aware, Carolina is not used to being the hunted in football. Teams will give us a better effort this year. How will we cope with that? I would be different if they won the ACC Championship and their Bowl game. That did not happen and they still have a lot to prove. Losing to Clemson and Baylor left a bad taste in their mouth and aside from being the Coastal champs, no team just settles for just that. Winning feels good and this team experienced something they only heard about or saw when they talked to players from the Mack Brown era and watched tape from that era as well. I think a fire was lit last season and there is unfinished business to take care of.

4. Lack of continuity with the offensive play-calling. Yes I know it's Larry's offense, but still, we now have Kap calling plays. This dovetails with Mitch finding his rhythm sooner rather than later. It could be an issue. Let's face it, this could very well be a blessing. On more than a few occasions the offensive staff outsmarted themselves (USC game, any time they didn't run on the goal line). Mitch has demonstrated the opposite in my opinion. He seems to get it going pretty quick, see UVa TD pass to win the game, etc. Also, maybe there is more confidence in the throwing ability to not be so conservative. Maybe the playbook will open up even more due to trust in his skills that MW didn't have.

5. Our away schedule. Yikes. At UGA (for all intents and purposes), at FSU, at Duke on a Thursday night, at Miami with a rejuvenated fanbase due to Mark Richt,....it's a stronger schedule this year for sure. At FSU terrifies me. Dalvin Cook might run for 200 yards against us. Tough scrdule but not impossible. GaTech beat FSU last year.

6. Dealing with the bounces not going our way -- let's face it, we got a lot of fortunate breaks last year such as the timely takeaways after letting the other team drive the length of the field, the dropped sure-fire pick 6 by the GT DB on the goal-line, etc. What happens this season when some of those breaks go against us rather than for us? Can we cope? That is with anything.

Gun to my head, I say 8-4 (5-3). What say you? I am saying 12-1 or 11-2. [/QUOTE]

 

[Raising Heel]

Let's face it, this could very well be a blessing. On more than a few occasions the offensive staff outsmarted themselves (USC game, any time they didn't run on the goal line).

Fair point. Littrell seemed far too willing to get cute and throw the ball inside the 10 when we probably could've just pounded our way into the end zone. South Carolina is the obvious example, but remember GT dropped a sure-fire pick 6 that would've derailed our comeback in Atlanta as well. I want to be a team that you know is going to run in those situations, and still pounds the ball down opponents' throats anyway.

I am saying 12-1 or 11-2.

I am saying you're incredibly optimistic.

 

[WoadBlue]

This is not my attempt at being "doom and gloom" or naysaying. This is merely my attempt to objectively look at the upcoming season while simultaneously reflecting on the 2015 campaign. Here's my take. I welcome challenges, criticism, alternative points of view, etc.
________________________________________________________

I've been thinking about this season a lot and I've been trying to quell this bad feeling that's growing in my mind, but I can't really stop myself from feeling that we're going to take a step back this year. And by step back, I mean 1-3 less wins than in 2015. Can y'all talk me out of this? Here are my concerns:

1. Defense, defense, defense. Our defensive line just is not where it needs to be. It'll be better than last year (I love that he battled, but a guy like Justin Thomason had no business starting on a team that played in a Power 5 conference championship game) but not that much better. I guess Jalen Dalton could be a pivotal piece if he really ups his game, but I have my doubts. Hell, IMO he should still be at defensive end. I truly don't get why a) we moved him inside, and b) why we didn't just redshirt him. He didn't do even remotely enough of value in meaningful games to warrant burning his redshirt. Beyond the DL, you've got potential galore at LB, but nevertheless, it's all question marks. Sure Andre Smith was good last year, but now he has to run the show. Will Cayson Collins break out? Who will the other starter be? Could JB Copeland (badass name) become a good player for us? Will J Smith start as a true frosh? A ton of questions at LB which is a huge concern. Finally, you've got the DBs who have lost depth thanks to Mike Hughes leaving the team. Yikes.

2. How quickly it takes Mitch to get into 5th gear. I'm not worried about Mitch's overall play; he's gonna be really good for us. But the problem is, what if he takes a couple games to get into the groove? We could easily be 0-2 by the time he fully hits his stride. There's no N.C. A&T or Elon season opener for Mitch to get his feet wet. His first start will be in the Georgia Dome in front of ~48,000 LOUD, drunk, barking UGA fans. Good luck, kid. I happen to think Mitch has a ton of moxy, but if he doesn't hit the ground running, we will lose to UGA, as I noted on my "Will we beat UGA?" thread on Blitz. Then we go to Champaign to face Illinois. Are the Illini very good? No. But you're going to their place and if you're coming off a deflating loss in yet another high-profile season opener, it could go sideways quickly.

3. Dealing with success. As we are all painfully aware, Carolina is not used to being the hunted in football. Teams will give us a better effort this year. How will we cope with that?

4. Lack of continuity with the offensive play-calling. Yes I know it's Larry's offense, but still, we now have Kap calling plays. This dovetails with Mitch finding his rhythm sooner rather than later. It could be an issue.

5. Our away schedule. Yikes. At UGA (for all intents and purposes), at FSU, at Duke on a Thursday night, at Miami with a rejuvenated fanbase due to Mark Richt,....it's a stronger schedule this year for sure. At FSU terrifies me. Dalvin Cook might run for 200 yards against us.

6. Dealing with the bounces not going our way -- let's face it, we got a lot of fortunate breaks last year such as the timely takeaways after letting the other team drive the length of the field, the dropped sure-fire pick 6 by the GT DB on the goal-line, etc. What happens this season when some of those breaks go against us rather than for us? Can we cope?

Gun to my head, I say 8-4 (5-3). What say you?

1. Defense is a major issue, one that could ruin th.is season (in comparison to 11 Ws last year). The problems start on the DL, but that is not the conclusion. It does not matter which guys step up, but if we are to going get 10, or 11, Ws regular season, we need at least 6 guys to step up from where they were last year: 2 on the Dl, 2 LBs, and 2 DBs.

2. Your worries are valid. And the way this season is going to start is a perfect example of why I said that Trubisky needed to play much more last year.

3. That depends on how we deal with UGA. If the Dawgs own us, we might easily fold to tough VT and Miami teams. After all, they are 'football powers.'

4. Maybe, but maybe with a new play caller, a new QB is perfect. Maybe Kap has a good sense of how to call games with Trubisky as QB. What is a given is that with all the offensive fire power we have at WR and RB, and Trubisky at QB and potentially very good if young TEs, if the offense splutters, Kap's head should be on the chopping block.

5. It is a killer. A schedule for men. It's what the program needs to test itself, which is required for growth. If we befoul the bed, then I again wonder if Fedora is just another glorified CUSA winner who can't get it done in a P5.

 

[WoadBlue]

94tarheel,

Good point about Jordan Cunningham. He has more upside than Bug Howard and may be betetr overall now, and I like Bug. I believe that he also has spoken favorably of Trubisky to the press a couple of times.

We have a super corps of 3 SR starters at wide out: Switzer, Mac, and Bug. Proehl is a proven very steady hand off the bench - starter caliber. Cunningham will play at least as much as Proehl and perhaps Howard.

Our WRs are going to make DB coaches go gray or bald.

 

[94tarheel]

Fair point. Littrell seemed far too willing to get cute and throw the ball inside the 10 when we probably could've just pounded our way into the end zone. South Carolina is the obvious example, but remember GT dropped a sure-fire pick 6 that would've derailed our comeback in Atlanta as well. I want to be a team that you know is going to run in those situations, and still pounds the ball down opponents' throats anyway.

I am saying you're incredibly optimistic.

I am not saying to run it a gazillion times but know the situation and use your advantages. Yes, there was more than one occasion where we should have ran Hood multiple times to get into the end zone. And, there were times when we should have thrown it to our tall receivers and use their height advantage. Someone screwed the pooch on in those situations. Remember, Mack Hollins burst onto the scene because of some of the jump ball situations that happened and they never really went back to jump balls with him or any other tall receiver.

I think last season was just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Raising Heel]

If we befoul the bed....

Haha

 

[matt 1976]

I am hoping for a 9 win regular season and a coastal division crown. We will have 2 chances to get that 10th win.

 

[Archer2]

Nice OP, filled with legitimate concerns. IMO, the overall defense will be better with most of the players accustomed to how the defensive staff wants things done. What we lose in experience will hopefully be compensated for with more athleticism and a better understanding of our staff's defensive concepts. Everything was new last year, it won't be this year. We'll be building on fundamentals learned last year. We simply can't afford injuries on the DL.

I'm not worried about Mitch, even with the tough opener against Georgia. I think he's a very special player who's been awaiting his chance to shine. Our offense should be potent with playmakers all over the field.

The schedule is definitely tougher. But I look for us to compete for our division and stand a good chance of playing in the ACCCG. I think 9-3 is a reasonable prediction.

 

[randman1]

If you want to be encouraged, think about this. Last season, probably the best team in the nation, Clemson (although they did lose to Alabama), could not stop us. And that was even with Quise taking awhile, about 2/3rds of the game, to really warm up. We have a solid unit in the returning O-line, receiver corp as maybe best in the nation, stellar RBs, and a guy that's come into games under pressure and nailed it at QB.

There is a good chance we could be even better offensively IF the team finds the same levels of leadership and team chemistry they had last season. That's a big IF but the talent is there to be unstoppable on offense like we were the last half of last season, and that includes being unstoppable against GA, FSU, Clemson and even Alabama should we play them. We have the potential to be that good on offense.

The question then is the same one as last season: defense. In our last 2 losses, had we just gotten a couple of more or few stops, we'd likely have won even against Baylor who ran all over us. IF we are healthy, I think we'll be better defensively. How much better remains to be seen, but I think we'll improve, and so there is a good reason to be optimistic. We lack depth at some positions and we are largely untested at LB as a whole. But the D-line should be better. Big guys in the trenches should be better with more seasoning, game experience, practice and IF key players are healthy.

The biggest key, imo, is attitude. We had a great winning attitude last season. That's what made us execute so well, imho.