2017 Commits, So Far

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Just glanced at the Rivals Top 150. Here's the breakdown.

Top 50 - 8 commits
51-100 - 13 commits
101-150 - 16 commits

That fits the general notion that higher-ranked guys tend to wait longer, while lower-ranked guys may jump at an offer before someone else snatches it. That isn't always true, of course, but when I checked last year, I usually saw this pattern.

We see a something a little different with the ESPN list:

Top 50 - 11 commits
51-100 - 14 commits

Same pattern, but different count (25 top-100 commits vs 21 for the Rivals list). I didn't drill down to see why.

247's list is in between Rivals and ESPN

Top 50 - 10 commits
51-100 - 12 commits
101-150 - 16 commits

No point to make. Just felt like checking how many are leaving the board at this stage.

 

[Tom79]

Interesting. I know many of us would like to move the process along but (as we all know) a few of the top kids aren't moving until they have a clearer picture of who has what spots available. Which all points to fall and mid winter or perhaps even spring before al the dust settles.

 

[DSouthr]

Interesting. I know many of us would like to move the process along but (as we all know) a few of the top kids aren't moving until they have a clearer picture of who has what spots available. Which all points to fall and mid winter or perhaps even spring before al the dust settles.

Thank you Tom, you are so right, many of these top kids want to wait and see who leaves before they finalize where they will go. It only makes sense, some may leave you didn't expect and some will have to stay longer than expected and who is playing at your position does effect where you commit, especially if you are looking to be one & done.

 

[Tom79]

A side not to WWJD's post, how many "Brice's" are in that 51-150 group, I would venture with the right coach, a few of 'em!

 

[mikeirbyusa]

A side not to WWJD's post, how many "Brice's" are in that 51-150 group, I would venture with the right coach, a few of 'em!

One may be visiting soon.

 

[Sk1310]

One may be visiting soon.

Who's that Mikey? Watson?

 

[keysersosay#1]

I have come to the point after some forty years of following this stuff, that I am just gonna sit back, relax and trust that Roy and his staff will do what is necessary to get a solid group of players at Carolina.

The "stars" and rankings will sort themselves out and I trust in Roy and his ability to work as hard as he can to field a really good team, a team full of players we can be very proud of.

 

[RoseHeel]

One may be visiting soon.

Who?

Who's that Mikey? Watson?

Who's Watson?

 

[trestyles]

I wish once the class graduate, one scouting website will do a re-ranking of the players

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

I am too old to think Roy Williams will not get another stellar class. Stop worrying it is not good for your health. Just let Roy and his staff do their magic....

 

[Bur-Heel]

Who?



Who's Watson?

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Who?



Who's Watson?

Yep. BIG strong kid.

 

[Sk1310]

Who?



Who's Watson?

He's a rising big man out of Maryland. Just outside the top 100 on ESPN, I think rivals has him ranked in the 70's. Wouldn't be a bad get as our 3rd big man.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Funny how the oldsters trust that Roy will bring in the necessary youngsters to field championship caliber teams, while those not as seasoned seem to wallow in angst each off-season!

BTW: I love Watson!

My relaxation is not solely based on 50+ years of experience as a Tar Heel; I actually see plenty of signs that things are changing! I see: Roy changing his recruiting strategy; ridiculous NCAA witch hunts ending; relationships with prominent AAU coaches being repaired; top level recruits mentioning our U with positive feelings; on court success in the regular season and Tourney; success in football as an added draw; top level commits selling our U; a popular style of play; plenty of PT; AND UNC history! (what do you see?)

It's a great time to be a Tar Heel!

 

[dukedevilz]

I wish once the class graduate, one scouting website will do a re-ranking of the players

What would your metric be for ranking the players? College success, pro production, or a hybrid of the two? I might be interested in gathering data once August rolls around.

 

[trestyles]

What would your metric be for ranking the players? College success, pro production, or a hybrid of the two? I might be interested in gathering data once August rolls around.

A hybrid of the two, however if thats not possible then just college production. I say a hybrid of the two, because i would like to see if certain colleges' players do just as well in the nba. For example I think Syracuse players as a whole do not do well in the league.

 

[Archer2]

Funny how the oldsters trust that Roy will bring in the necessary youngsters to field championship caliber teams, while those not as seasoned seem to wallow in angst each off-season!

BTW: I love Watson!

My relaxation is not solely based on 50+ years of experience as a Tar Heel; I actually see plenty of signs that things are changing! I see: Roy changing his recruiting strategy; ridiculous NCAA witch hunts ending; relationships with prominent AAU coaches being repaired; top level recruits mentioning our U with positive feelings; on court success in the regular season and Tourney; success in football as an added draw; top level commits selling our U; a popular style of play; plenty of PT; AND UNC history! (what do you see?)

It's a great time to be a Tar Heel!

According to a post I saw the other day, we only have 9 offers out there. I hope that's not true because IMO, we should have twice that many out. We desperately need at least two bigs and could use three. And the only big I feel halfway comfortable about is PJ. We haven't offered Nate Watson yet and he already has offers from Maryland, WFU, FSU, Georgetown, GT, MIami, St. Joes, USC, WVU, and Xavier.

As I said, I don't feel good about our chances of landing any bigs in the top 20, with the possible exception of PJ. So I think offers should be put out to several more bigs. With the exception of Tony, we got shut out of a very talented class of2016 bigs last year. We can't afford another year like that with the class of 2017..

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

With the exception of Tony, we got shut out of a very talented class of2016 bigs last year. We can't afford another year like that with the class of 2017..

Absolutely agree. If we get shut out (or at least not the extent that we'd like) of bigs in the 2017 class - who do we point the blame at? Now that the NCAA mess and lack of PT are no longer an excuse...

 

[Archer2]

Absolutely agree. If we get shut out (or at least not the extent that we'd like) of bigs in the 2017 class - who do we point the blame at? Now that the NCAA mess and lack of PT are no longer an excuse...

I would refer you to this recent post by Dave, as it mirrors my opinion.

"I know most folks now want to dismiss the NCAA stuff as a issue of the past and that we are now over that hurdle and that is true to an extent. But a very real issue we are dealing with in this 2017 class is that when you typically start making your inroads to a recruit is in their soph and Jr seasons, when they get to their senior season most of the already have a pretty firm impression of where they are most impressed with.

In the 2017 class, we still had the NCAA cloud hanging over us, that stunted our ability to get in early on some of these guys. Great example is Carter, we got way behind on him because he was concerned with the NCAA issues we had. When you are dealing with schools like duke and Ky, it is hard enough to compete with them for a recruit on equal footing but to have to compete with them from way behind is well, double tuff.

There will be some very slight hang over for the 2018 class but by 2019 the NCAA stuff will be totally forgotten and not effect us further. We seem to have a good amount of buzz with the 2018 class already and I am expecting things to be much easier for Roy to get recruits from that class. But we are clearly struggling to get the big men we need from this 2017 class, we have a shot at a couple very good ones we are not the clear leader for any of the guys we fans really dream of from this class."

And I've said more than once that I don't think the NCAA investigation has had a big influence on our inability to sign OAD's so I don't look for us to sign many now that it's near it's end.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

I would refer you to this recent post by Dave, as it mirrors my opinion.

"I know most folks now want to dismiss the NCAA stuff as a issue of the past and that we are now over that hurdle and that is true to an extent. But a very real issue we are dealing with in this 2017 class is that when you typically start making your inroads to a recruit is in their soph and Jr seasons, when they get to their senior season most of the already have a pretty firm impression of where they are most impressed with.

In the 2017 class, we still had the NCAA cloud hanging over us, that stunted our ability to get in early on some of these guys. Great example is Carter, we got way behind on him because he was concerned with the NCAA issues we had. When you are dealing with schools like duke and Ky, it is hard enough to compete with them for a recruit on equal footing but to have to compete with them from way behind is well, double tuff.

There will be some very slight hang over for the 2018 class but by 2019 the NCAA stuff will be totally forgotten and not effect us further. We seem to have a good amount of buzz with the 2018 class already and I am expecting things to be much easier for Roy to get recruits from that class. But we are clearly struggling to get the big men we need from this 2017 class, we have a shot at a couple very good ones we are not the clear leader for any of the guys we fans really dream of from this class."

And I've said more than once that I don't think the NCAA investigation has had a big influence on our inability to sign OAD's so I don't look for us to sign many now that it's near it's end.

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

I'm a veteran gloom and doomer but I think you may be worrying too much. We'll have a good recruiting class. Probably not as loaded as we'd like, but loaded enough.

That said, it's important to keep glooming and dooming to keep away the evil spirits.

My main worry is that Roy may feel he can go back to the pre-NCAA recruiting routine - meaning few, careful offers - when, as Dave and Arch have pointed out, that correction may take a while to fully settle in.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

ESPN says we have an offer to top 10 Brandon McCoy, but not to PJ Washington. I assume they are wrong about PJ, but I hope they are right about McCoy.

 

[Archer2]

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

You certainly don't have to "give him a pass" on anything. I'm sure there are more than a few who feel like you appear to and are blaming him even now. That's your prerogative.

 

[RoseHeel]

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

"Just wait till 2019!"

lol

ESPN says we have an offer to top 10 Brandon McCoy, but not to PJ Washington. I assume they are wrong about PJ, but I hope they are right about McCoy.

Don't go off of offers according to ESPN. They don't update their recruiting stuff often. And it doesn't really tell you when the last gap was.

Chances are, we have not offered McCoy as of yet.

 

[tarheel0910]

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

What's a poor class though? Roy has never brought in a bunch of 5 star, top 10 players in one class. I'm not expecting him to start recruiting like UK, because he never really did. I think it was @gunslingerdick who did a breakdown of recruit rankings for Roy, which I thought was pretty telling. This thing is all subjective and the only reason some people are freaking out about it is because these recruits have gone to duke.

 

[RobJones__]

At this point, we have not been able to confirm any official offer to McCoy. I'd honestly expect that to change at some point but as of our latest update there is no offer extended yet.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Ok thanks. So Roy still gets a pass for 17, and maybe it seems a small pass in 18, but in 19 it looks like he'll be held accountable finally if we have a poor class.

I'm sure Roy feels much better now you've given him a pass.

 

[dukedevilz]

A hybrid of the two, however if thats not possible then just college production. I say a hybrid of the two, because i would like to see if certain colleges' players do just as well in the nba. For example I think Syracuse players as a whole do not do well in the league.

I love gathering data, so I think I might pull some stats and compile some rankings. It'll probably be awhile before it's done, but I'll try to put something together that can go on Google Docs for viewing.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I love gathering data, so I think I might pull some stats and compile some rankings. It'll probably be awhile before it's done, but I'll try to put something together that can go on Google Docs for viewing.

That would be cool.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

247 has a category they call "Targets." Same page (different dropdown) as the one where you can look at Commits and Offers.

I'm not sure whether their Targets listing is based on any good data but I notice that whereas they show 9 offers, they list 25 targets. So if they aren't just pulling the names out of their whatevers, it could be a fun list to discuss.

I wonder if any of our better-informed posters could comment of which of these are most likely to get offers in the near future.

Scanning the list for bigs - which most of us agree is our top priority - I see some promising lower ranked guys. Watson is one of them. Plus 2 I haven't seen mentioned here: Alex Reese and Isaiah Jasey.

http://northcarolina.247sports.com/Season/2017-Basketball/Targets

 

[DevilBlue]

What's a poor class though? Roy has never brought in a bunch of 5 star, top 10 players in one class. I'm not expecting him to start recruiting like UK, because he never really did. I think it was @gunslingerdick who did a breakdown of recruit rankings for Roy, which I thought was pretty telling. This thing is all subjective and the only reason some people are freaking out about it is because these recruits have gone to duke.

Both his championship teams were built on that exact type of class. Felton, McCants, May and Lawson, Ellington, Wright(who left after one year) were both years with 3 of the top 10 guys.

 

[tarheel0910]

Both his championship teams were built on that exact type of class. Felton, McCants, May and Lawson, Ellington, Wright(who left after one year) were both years with 3 of the top 10 guys.

He didn't recruit the Felton, McCants, May group. That was before he got there. What I meant when I said recruiting like UK is that I don't expect Roy to bring in that kind of star power every year. I have no doubt he would take it, it just hasn't happened for him historically.

 

[Sk1310]

Both his championship teams were built on that exact type of class. Felton, McCants, May and Lawson, Ellington, Wright(who left after one year) were both years with 3 of the top 10 guys.

ESPN had Felton as the only top 10. Had May as low as 51


http://espn.go.com/recruiting/s/010815top100.html

 

[DevilBlue]

He didn't recruit the Felton, McCants, May group. That was before he got there. What I meant when I said recruiting like UK is that I don't expect Roy to bring in that kind of star power every year. I have no doubt he would take it, it just hasn't happened for him historically.

You are correct. I had forgotten Roy came in the year after the Felton class. Honestly this seems like the normal cycle of basketball to me. Teams who win get players. The only difference is you have more guys jumping after one year. After Roy won his two titles the recruiting was insane for UNC...but there were less OADs back then. Now Duke and UK have been very successful the last few years...keep riding that high. As teams like UNC put together 2-3 top years in a row they will be right back in it for those top guys and eventually two or three guys who want to play together will decide to go to UNC.

 

[DevilBlue]

ESPN had Felton as the only top 10. Had May as low as 51


http://espn.go.com/recruiting/s/010815top100.html

While I get ranking are based on many things...how they did in high school, how people feel they will do in college, pro potential...I want with
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2002.html
since Rivals only goes back to 2003. While I understand that due to the different ways ESPN may have done their rankings May might not have been top 10 to them they ONLY thing I could see that would put him at 51 was injury concerns...

 

[Sk1310]

While I get ranking are based on many things...how they did in high school, how people feel they will do in college, pro potential...I want with
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2002.html
since Rivals only goes back to 2003. While I understand that due to the different ways ESPN may have done their rankings May might not have been top 10 to them they ONLY thing I could see that would put him at 51 was injury concerns...

Yea it was hard trying to find anything on 2002 recruiting class. Thanks for the link.

 

[Archer2]

You are correct. I had forgotten Roy came in the year after the Felton class. Honestly this seems like the normal cycle of basketball to me. Teams who win get players. The only difference is you have more guys jumping after one year. After Roy won his two titles the recruiting was insane for UNC...but there were less OADs back then. Now Duke and UK have been very successful the last few years...keep riding that high. As teams like UNC put together 2-3 top years in a row they will be right back in it for those top guys and eventually two or three guys who want to play together will decide to go to UNC.

If you're speaking of top 10, OAD guys, I'll make a bet with you.

 

[DevilBlue]

If you're speaking of top 10, OAD guys, I'll make a bet with you.

So you are saying that as this NCAA stuff gets put in the past and lets say UNC gets back to the final 4 this year or next...that with the number of players UNC will see graduate and the need for multiple positions you don't think that Roy will go after a top 10 guy or two who perhaps grew up a UNC fan or two guys(like Knox and Carter) who have stated they might like to play together? Or are you saying that UNC just won't land them?

 

[Archer2]

We won't land them. Roy doesn't build his team around OAD's. I know it, you know it, and recruits certainly know it. Cal will and the LOM will. Now will we land an occasional OAD? Possibly, but I think he'd have to be a huge UNC fan. Heck Giles and his family were purportedly a UNC family and yet he wound up signing with dook. Roy will continue to recruit the top guys because I think he believes he has to in order to keep our brand among the top schools.

We've only had two OAD's in our history, and one of them didn't even start. dook has had 8, including 6 in the last 5 years, and will most likely have 2-3 more next year. Cal and the LOM have shown they will willingly build their team around OAD's. Roy just isn't going to do that. nor do I want him to.

 

[jeans15]

ESPN recruiting sucks football and basketball wise.