In January this team got a reputation, nationally, of being a defensive stalwart. In fact it ended the season being the 8th highest-ranked defense at KenPom. However if we look at this season overall, we see that that stretch of January is really the only period where they were outstanding defensively. The opponents in that stretch were Oklahoma, Charleston Southern, Pitt, Clemson, and NCSU. The latter 3 ended up playing well in mid-March, but their state in mid-January was a very different story.
Dean Smith's defensive goal was to keep teams below 0.85 points per possession. That line is shown in gray, and we want the red points per possession allowed line to be below it. After that period of January (where the reputation was made), UNC significantly met Dean Smith's goal only 2 more times. It even allowed 7 of its last 16 opponents to play around the 1.00 points per possession level.
Historically this was the 6th worst defense in program history. Only 2018, 2023, 2020, 2022, and 2002 allowed more points per possession (to the right on the chart below). Despite the national rise in points per possession that I outlined in the Stat Dive series, this team spent most of the season hovering around the 1988 (Elite Eight), 1996 (Round of 32), and 1999 (Sweet 16) teams, so it is not surprising at all to see this team get clipped at the Sweet 16 mark. Their profile showed us this virtually the entire season. In the last month of the season, this team made a significant move to the right on this chart, representing a fall in defensive intensity.
Defensive inconsistency is ultimately what did this team in, as it did with Hubert Davis' previous 2 teams. With the large personnel change coming in the offseason, it will be interesting to see if this was a player or a coach problem.
Dean Smith's defensive goal was to keep teams below 0.85 points per possession. That line is shown in gray, and we want the red points per possession allowed line to be below it. After that period of January (where the reputation was made), UNC significantly met Dean Smith's goal only 2 more times. It even allowed 7 of its last 16 opponents to play around the 1.00 points per possession level.
Historically this was the 6th worst defense in program history. Only 2018, 2023, 2020, 2022, and 2002 allowed more points per possession (to the right on the chart below). Despite the national rise in points per possession that I outlined in the Stat Dive series, this team spent most of the season hovering around the 1988 (Elite Eight), 1996 (Round of 32), and 1999 (Sweet 16) teams, so it is not surprising at all to see this team get clipped at the Sweet 16 mark. Their profile showed us this virtually the entire season. In the last month of the season, this team made a significant move to the right on this chart, representing a fall in defensive intensity.
Defensive inconsistency is ultimately what did this team in, as it did with Hubert Davis' previous 2 teams. With the large personnel change coming in the offseason, it will be interesting to see if this was a player or a coach problem.
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