Bagley and Carter are the real deal. They could affect games rebounding in ways that Johnson, Meeks, and Hicks have for UNC over the last few years. Bagley being relentless going after the ball - Carter being big and aggressive. They both have a great deal of offensive skill and are good defenders.
Duval is absolutely a wild card. On Saturday he was in foul trouble early because of a dumb, aggressive foul on a blocked shot attempt. I fear his head may get in the way of his talent at times this year. If he plays with composure, he has high end athletic tools.
Speaking of head getting in the way, this will be the key to Grayson's season. He looks healthy and is shooting the ball well. He shouldn't have to force things this year, and if he can settle in to a role similar to Luke K. from last year (deep threat, not primary scorer every possession) then I think he could have a really good year.
From what I've seen so far, Bagley and Carter are absolutely top 10 talents and they'd have to play pretty poorly to play themselves out of the lottery this year. Duval could have a season that puts him anywhere from top 10 to undrafted - he really could go about any direction. Allen has typically been slotted in the 2nd round. I think he needs to have a ACC POY type of season to get into the 1st round.