"the man on the tape wasn't specific" Seinfeld reference in case you are wondering.Thought we were discussing Roy's era.
Different Coaches, Different Recruiting Strategies - Offers
- Thread starter What Would Jesus Do?
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Appreciate the correction gary, I didn't mean to tag you saying something you didn't say. I do agree we and Texas lead for PJ but PJ and Coleman relationship and Shaka not just having both of them on this 18U team (imagine him having 2 guys on that team he is recruiting
... Hard to blame Shaka really but wonder what the odds of Coleman being on that team if Shaka was not also recruiting him? I don't think Kal is making PJ a huge priority, he will follow the trail to see where it goes but I think his priorities are elsewhere.On knox, talk about a flip (from what I said your position was to what you corrected me as to how you see it, not that you flipped), I reckon I see more of a chance with Knox than you do but I would not put our chances above 20% right now. Problem I see with him is he seems to feel he is more of a wing, kinda the code these kids mean when they say "position-less". I think he should embrace being a 4 but it is his future, I recall Henson also totally believing he was a 3 until he got to college and discovered what college wings actually are. But, if Knox will wait until after the coming season and Justin does leave as expected, we may look very different to him then than we do right now.
On Carter, I heard some things a while back that told me the carter deal was not gonna happen. We did have a brief window open when we got the NOA and that was as well about the time we had the dukie come here saying we didn't have a chance with the kid. At THAT TIME that just was not true, it is more true today, you have to look at things like that in the context of time. From what I hear the carter ship has sailed on a ocean of "K"oolaide but Tom McMillian was supposed to be ours until he showed at on the Md campus and registered for classes, with these kids you never know until they sign and these days that may not even be enough.
Based on what I have been hearing lately, the only scenario that Knox picks UNC is that Bamba opts for Duke first. Only one of the two will opt for Duke, but Duke will get one of them. Knox is headed to a ACC school and he likes UNC and Duke, but Duke leads for Knox. UNC does not lead for Knox or Bamba. The negative is that if Knox opts for Duke the Heels are still looking on the outside for Bamba.
What I have been hearing is that Carter and Trent are Duke locks. Also, add 3-4 year player Quale Green (Quinn Cook type) is close to a lock. They will problaby add either Knox or Bamba, but not both. Tyus Jones little brother is coming in 2018. Duke will continue to roll.....Hate this but it is what it is.
So let me get this straight: You told me to name 2 players that were UNC locks and went to Dook, and I stated that there were none since Harrison Barnes....now you want to tell me I'm way off because the parameters YOU set don't exist? You can gladly go and look back at our commitments since Barnes, but the info is there. Do you have anything to support that my recruiting info is "way off", as you described?
I'd love for you to name 2 players that have had a UNC and Dook offer, but opted for Dook since Harrison Barnes, because I see none. If I'm wrong then, I'll gladly admit it. Unlike some, I don't mind having my info being incorrect and being called out on it. My ego isn't hinged on things like that.
But it sounds to me that you either don't know or don't know what you're talking about. So unless you have counter-evidence, I do agree we should leave it at that.
We can debate grammar and english like it's 9th Grade if you'd like, but I'd prefer not to.
Well you tell me! You all cry foul play with the NCAA whenever someone even mentions a weak recruiting class, but when someone worries about our upcoming recruiting classes, you want us to "be optimistic" and claim "we'll be fine"?? Make up your minds. You cannot get both.
I know that Roy has his own "style" when it comes to recruiting, and I know some of you swear by it. But these habits of "exclusion" since he got to UNC instead of recruiting are starting to bite us in the a**. Roy was (and still is) a very selective recruiter he came and comes across as he didn’t want to deal with some kids/folks. We're having to basically fight to have kids even include us on their list. This is not how "elite" programs operate. What some of you don't seem to understand is that there is a difference between "recruiting" and "offering". Some kids (A.K.A. Matt Coleman) were not even recruited by us, and that doesn't send a good message. It was clear that our "renewed involvement" with Coleman was an attempt to gain traction with Washington. Really looks like a bad move IMO.
I'm also aware of the players we need, as well. Since many can't seem to address the question at hand, I'll ask it once again: Who of our current offers, do you think will fit under those "NEEDS"?
But let's play this game through: You said Knox is not coming to UNC in your most recent post (so much for your athletic wing). Bamba is an astronomically long shot. I know you like Carter, but even the blind can read that writing on the wall. We're in it for Washington, but there's a good chance Texas and Shaka beat us out, and I don't see any reason to think that they don't.
But let's say we include PJ on that list anyway. That means we have a decent chance with PJ, Weatherspoon, Platek, and Randolph. Weatherspoon has a list of 10 and will probably not be deciding "at the end of the summer", and I don't see anything that makes you think Randolph is leaning towards UNC? Unless you have some info we don't? I doubt you want to put all your eggs in the PJ basket. We've made this bet quite a few times in the past. It hasn't worked out.
I wouldn't bank on McCoy. Cali kid with high West Coast interest? That's a recipe we rarely make. We haven't had success with offering a top 50 recruit and suddenly flipping the momentum in quite some time. At least not one with guys like Dook, UK, KU, etc. involved. Why would that tactic suddenly work now? After all, we're still playing the blame game with the NCAA.
So when you see me question why we don't even bother "recruiting" guys who have expressed interest in UNC, yet complain when other recruits don't take us seriously, there is a good reason behind it.
So to sum it up, Either hop on the hype train or the famous "wait till 2018" spiel? Seems like the common theme between some of the people here anyway.
Look, I don't knock Roy or his efforts. Probably one of the hardest working coaches out there. But I do question his tactics, which have not changed since the NCAA fiasco started. You either adapt or die. Let's see which one happens first.
Either way, I'm fine with waiting until the end of this recruiting class to see how things play out. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by a top 10 class that can compete with the rest of the Elites. But until then, I'd prefer that you not piss on my head and tell me it's rain. When we land a solid class for any of our next recruiting periods, I will gladly change my narrative.
Well you tell me! You all cry foul play with the NCAA whenever someone even mentions a weak recruiting class, but when someone worries about our upcoming recruiting classes, you want us to "be optimistic" and claim "we'll be fine"?? Make up your minds. You cannot get both.
I know that Roy has his own "style" when it comes to recruiting, and I know some of you swear by it. But these habits of "exclusion" since he got to UNC instead of recruiting are starting to bite us in the a**. Roy was (and still is) a very selective recruiter he came and comes across as he didn’t want to deal with some kids/folks. We're having to basically fight to have kids even include us on their list. This is not how "elite" programs operate. What some of you don't seem to understand is that there is a difference between "recruiting" and "offering". Some kids (A.K.A. Matt Coleman) were not even recruited by us, and that doesn't send a good message. It was clear that our "renewed involvement" with Coleman was an attempt to gain traction with Washington. Really looks like a bad move IMO.
I'm also aware of the players we need, as well. Since many can't seem to address the question at hand, I'll ask it once again: Who of our current offers, do you think will fit under those "NEEDS"?
But let's play this game through: You said Knox is not coming to UNC in your most recent post (so much for your athletic wing). Bamba is an astronomically long shot. I know you like Carter, but even the blind can read that writing on the wall. We're in it for Washington, but there's a good chance Texas and Shaka beat us out, and I don't see any reason to think that they don't.
But let's say we include PJ on that list anyway. That means we have a decent chance with PJ, Weatherspoon, Platek, and Randolph. Weatherspoon has a list of 10 and will probably not be deciding "at the end of the summer", and I don't see anything that makes you think Randolph is leaning towards UNC? Unless you have some info we don't? I doubt you want to put all your eggs in the PJ basket. We've made this bet quite a few times in the past. It hasn't worked out.
I wouldn't bank on McCoy. Cali kid with high West Coast interest? That's a recipe we rarely make. We haven't had success with offering a top 50 recruit and suddenly flipping the momentum in quite some time. At least not one with guys like Dook, UK, KU, etc. involved. Why would that tactic suddenly work now? After all, we're still playing the blame game with the NCAA.
So when you see me question why we don't even bother "recruiting" guys who have expressed interest in UNC, yet complain when other recruits don't take us seriously, there is a good reason behind it.
So to sum it up, Either hop on the hype train or the famous "wait till 2018" spiel? Seems like the common theme between some of the people here anyway.
Look, I don't knock Roy or his efforts. Probably one of the hardest working coaches out there. But I do question his tactics, which have not changed since the NCAA fiasco started. You either adapt or die. Let's see which one happens first.
Either way, I'm fine with waiting until the end of this recruiting class to see how things play out. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by a top 10 class that can compete with the rest of the Elites. But until then, I'd prefer that you not piss on my head and tell me it's rain. When we land a solid class for any of our next recruiting periods, I will gladly change my narrative.
Lot of people are missing something here, difficulty with recruiting did not start with the NCAA mess, or at least, those weren't the first hits.
I believe an almost perfect storm of events conspired to create a down period
1. Players leaving:
Roy had one year where 3 kids from Cali up and left. Not only did they leave, they took a dump on the doormat on their way out..... meaning they and/or their parents used social media, contacts, networks etc to trash Roy and the program.
Two of those kids (the twins who will not be named) left because of playing time - they didn't want to sit behind Zeller, Henson and McAdoo. The other (nameless) left after he was moved to the bench in favour of Kendall Marshall.
Despite the above departures, Roy's uber talented '12 team looked ready for a 'ship before injuries to Kendall, Dex and Henson cut them short in the Elite 8
2. PJ/LMac controversy
How good would the 13-14 team have been with PJ on board and LMac there for the whole season? I say plenty good. Winning helps recruiting while negativity hurts. Having two players 'caught up' or even 'associated' with drugs, guns and borrowed cars is not healthy when you're trying to convince kids to play for your team.
3. Rashad.
Once one of the cali kid's mother started mouthing off about Roy it wasn't long before Rashad hit the headlines. He, his dad, his dog, hell anyone near him were doing their best to work against Roy. This dovetailed into the Academic scandal, but it was happening on social media and other areas long before.
4. Lack of wins, particularly against the 'Rival'
It doesn't look good when you get swept by your 'biggest rival'.
It doesn't look good when you invite top recruits to sit courtside and Rivers nails a buzzer beater on your home court
Losing to Dook sux at the best of times, but it particularly sux for recruiting. Ever since HB, Henson and Butter left there have been more losses than wins
5. The NCAA BS
A final piece to the puzzle. So after Roy had been bloodied by all of the above, he then had to deal with a national media narrative where the terms "Death Penalty", "Vacated Championships", "Post season ban" and "Forced retirement" were thrown around at will.
The point of this History essay: To show that it's not just one thing that Roy's had to deal with, it's many, all converging into a small, 5-6 year span. Current recruits were 10 or 11 when the Cali Kids defected, meaning they've read/heard/been told negative stuff about UNC from one source or another for their whole elite playing career.
It's a wonder Roy has been able to pull any decent players in during that time, let alone build a team to play in a title game!
So, with that historical perspective I like to celebrate the players who do choose UNC, knowing that as long as the narrative remains increasingly positive, more and more players will want to play for Roy again.
I believe an almost perfect storm of events conspired to create a down period
1. Players leaving:
Roy had one year where 3 kids from Cali up and left. Not only did they leave, they took a dump on the doormat on their way out..... meaning they and/or their parents used social media, contacts, networks etc to trash Roy and the program.
Two of those kids (the twins who will not be named) left because of playing time - they didn't want to sit behind Zeller, Henson and McAdoo. The other (nameless) left after he was moved to the bench in favour of Kendall Marshall.
Despite the above departures, Roy's uber talented '12 team looked ready for a 'ship before injuries to Kendall, Dex and Henson cut them short in the Elite 8
2. PJ/LMac controversy
How good would the 13-14 team have been with PJ on board and LMac there for the whole season? I say plenty good. Winning helps recruiting while negativity hurts. Having two players 'caught up' or even 'associated' with drugs, guns and borrowed cars is not healthy when you're trying to convince kids to play for your team.
3. Rashad.
Once one of the cali kid's mother started mouthing off about Roy it wasn't long before Rashad hit the headlines. He, his dad, his dog, hell anyone near him were doing their best to work against Roy. This dovetailed into the Academic scandal, but it was happening on social media and other areas long before.
4. Lack of wins, particularly against the 'Rival'
It doesn't look good when you get swept by your 'biggest rival'.
It doesn't look good when you invite top recruits to sit courtside and Rivers nails a buzzer beater on your home court
Losing to Dook sux at the best of times, but it particularly sux for recruiting. Ever since HB, Henson and Butter left there have been more losses than wins
5. The NCAA BS
A final piece to the puzzle. So after Roy had been bloodied by all of the above, he then had to deal with a national media narrative where the terms "Death Penalty", "Vacated Championships", "Post season ban" and "Forced retirement" were thrown around at will.
The point of this History essay: To show that it's not just one thing that Roy's had to deal with, it's many, all converging into a small, 5-6 year span. Current recruits were 10 or 11 when the Cali Kids defected, meaning they've read/heard/been told negative stuff about UNC from one source or another for their whole elite playing career.
It's a wonder Roy has been able to pull any decent players in during that time, let alone build a team to play in a title game!
So, with that historical perspective I like to celebrate the players who do choose UNC, knowing that as long as the narrative remains increasingly positive, more and more players will want to play for Roy again.
I respectfully disagree on the last sentence. I think we are more in it with Bamba than many realize.... maybe not to the degree as with PJ, but still in it.
When you're Va Tech you throw out the non-Dolphin-proof net.
But on the other hand, think how many kids (who might not otherwise) see a chance to play in the ACC there. Buzz is a go-getter.
What in the Wide Wide world of sports are you even talking about??? Good grief. The fact is you are knocking Roy --- go back and read that convoluted rant you just posted, lest you forget --- and then you changed your tune at the end.
And trust me, I know full well the difference between recruiting and offering and BTW I also know there have been cases where certain kids have been offered by us and it is not immediately advertised. As for Coleman you're just speculating and reporting it like it's gospel. Again, let it play out and see what happens. Instead of waiting to change your narrative, perhaps a narrative shouldn't be based on negative assumptions, because that's what they are at this point --- assumptions.
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BTW Dave, FWIW from Wendell today:Appreciate the correction gary, I didn't mean to tag you saying something you didn't say. I do agree we and Texas lead for PJ but PJ and Coleman relationship and Shaka not just having both of them on this 18U team (imagine him having 2 guys on that team he is recruiting
On knox, talk about a flip (from what I said your position was to what you corrected me as to how you see it, not that you flipped), I reckon I see more of a chance with Knox than you do but I would not put our chances above 20% right now. Problem I see with him is he seems to feel he is more of a wing, kinda the code these kids mean when they say "position-less". I think he should embrace being a 4 but it is his future, I recall Henson also totally believing he was a 3 until he got to college and discovered what college wings actually are. But, if Knox will wait until after the coming season and Justin does leave as expected, we may look very different to him then than we do right now.
On Carter, I heard some things a while back that told me the carter deal was not gonna happen. We did have a brief window open when we got the NOA and that was as well about the time we had the dukie come here saying we didn't have a chance with the kid. At THAT TIME that just was not true, it is more true today, you have to look at things like that in the context of time. From what I hear the carter ship has sailed on a ocean of "K"oolaide but Tom McMillian was supposed to be ours until he showed at on the Md campus and registered for classes, with these kids you never know until they sign and these days that may not even be enough.
Hey, at least his emoji was purple instead of dark blue...
It looks a lot like a devil though.BTW Dave, FWIW from Wendell today:
Hey, at least his emoji was purple instead of dark blue...
WOW!
Ross, was not talking about that one post. But your info in general on recruiting.
Hey now, I thought I was the guy that wrote those novellas? LOL
I am trying to figure out exactly what you are suggesting? Should we not continue to recruit Bamba, KNox, PJ? I wouldn't spend any extra recruiting love on carter but these 3 we absolutely need to stay on, while we may not lead for any of them, we still have shots depending on how things unfold. I agree with gary that we do have a better shot at Bamba than many acknowledge, I do not think Bamba and Carter commit to the same school. Neither really want to be classified as centers, they both want that position-less tag that means they see themselves rightly or not as 4/3 type guys and that puts them in competition for the same space. That space being the go to guy inside that can step away at times. I really think Bamba comes down to Ky, UNC, duke, and maybe Kansas with it ending in a dog fight between us and Ky.
The X-factor for bamba is that he is still really raw, he really needs to pick a place he can develop quickly and Ky is not so much about developing a player, Ky is more about taking in a player that is already skilled and turning him loose, least we forget the development job done with skal. Carter is more ready skill wise at this point, Bamba has much more upside potential, he would fit what we do and how we do it hand to glove and Bamba thinks in those terms. I am not saying we lead for the kid, Bamba is a really hard kid to get a good read on exactly what he is thinking, he keeps his cards real close and his options open.
Bamba coming in and playing beside Tony would be the perfect fit for him, plenty of playing time, what would seem to be a wide open position waiting for him as a starter and a program known for pounding the ball inside to front court players in position to finish to bolster those stat sheets for the NBA to consider. And even better, he would get at least 2 shots his freshman season to go against carter, to see who deserves to be the over all #1 between the 2, to see who is better. The winner to contend with Auyton for NBA #1 over all pick spot, that is harder to do playing for the same team.
Now the other point I think you are making is that we need to get more big man offers out, could not agree more. I would love to see an offer out to McCoy today, love to see 3 or 4 offers out to the B-list big men, there is one in cali that IMO could be a steal if we can get in on him, seems west coast bound for now but love for us to get involved. Honestly, I really don't want any more offers out to anyone that is not a front court player. We have 2 really good guards now for this class, we need front court players much more than we needs any more guards at this point. I will qualify that with 1 exception, the Sexton kid, if Roy totally believes Joel is gone after next season, the Sexton kid could be a great addition, I like him more than the spoon kid, a lot more.
I guess my thing is, Roy's job in some ways is harder now than before in that fans expect us to be back to green flag racin now that the NOA has shown men's basketball should be OK, so fans expectations for recruiting have increased. But Roy is still having to deal with the reality that the NCAA cloud was over us when relationships with this class were being fermented. I*t may be over for the NCAA but Roy is still having to recruit from behind for most of the guys we really want to see commit to us. It is hard enough to contend with duke and Ky when the race is equal but starting from behind is a tall order and we have absolutely had to start from behind, way behind in many cases.
Apparently you're not reading what I am writing, because I'm not speaking in code here, and have kept the same points since the beginning.
Disagreeing =/= Knocking. This is really not as difficult as you're making it gary. How is disagreeing with a single part of Roy's strategy a knock against him? Contrary to belief, I don't have to agree 100% with everything Roy does to still support him. Why you and others keep insinuating that is beyond me.
If you actually read my first post, The main topics of the post discussed my worry with our recruiting strategy and went on to express my annoyance with people who keep making excuses (yes, excuses).
So this is the scenario you're describing: Coleman, despite him not having us in any of his recent listings and us showing little to no interest since the beginning of his recruitment, has an offer and is considering us? Do you know how asinine that sounds? Look gary, I know you like to stay firm until the very end. Your recent changes on Carter were further proof of that. But do you honestly think nearly every media outlet that reports on recruiting is somehow conspiring against us? I know a lot of the tinfoil hat fans here believe the media has some secret conspiracy against UNC, but I didn't expect you to be one of them. If Coleman was considering UNC, he'd have said so by now.
My Narrative has been the same since I first posted in this thread, and I have not changed it since, so there's no need to tell me about flipping. Perhaps I'll switch to optimistic when there's a reason to do so?
I see Platek committed to UNC yesterday. That's a good start.
If nobody leaves early and I haven't forgotten someone, our 2017-18 roster looks like this:
Joel
7th
Kenny
BRob
Jalek
Andrew
Justin
Theo
Luke
Tony
That's 10 guys, SEVEN of them are wings. Only 1 is a proven PG. Only 1 is a proven SF. None is a proven big.
Pretty sure I was the first one here to say we needed 3 bigs from the 2017 class, so you won't get any argument from me on that point. But I disagree that that's ALL we need.
We also need a SF, because Justin is almost certainly leaving. And we have no proven replacement. I know, I know, we have Theo and BRob. So we should be OK. But why risk it? At this juncture we have no idea if BRob is a good fit at SF. Might be, might not be. As for Theo, who knows? He could be great, or in the NBA, or the next JP. I'm still betting on great, but that's just a bet, not a guarantee.
We also need a PG because we don't know if 7th or Jalek really has the right mentality for that position. And Joel might be in the NBA.
With Justin gone, we have 4 scholarships left. If we get 3 bigs, that leaves 1.
In the best of scenarios, Theo becomes a great SF and Joel sticks around for his senior year. In which case our only need is bigs. But I don't like betting on the best case scenario.
Nor have I allowed for any injuries, transfers or other disruptions.
The other thing to consider is that we rarely seem to have 13 guys on scholarship (if we subtract the walk-ons who may have earned one for the season). I haven't gone through the stats, but that's my impression. We stay more "full" than a lot of teams, but "full" usually seems to mean 12 guys, or sometimes 11. Moreover, I can only think of 1 class with 6 recruits (the Hansbrough class). So I don't know how realistic it is to think that we will completely top up with the 2017 class.
It is indeed. When I watched Andrew at EYBL-Atlanta I pointed him out to a friend and said "right there is probably Carolina's next commitment". We were both very impressed with his game. Stanford made a run in the end but I felt as long as he believed in himself enough to go for the gusto he was UNC-bound. Glad he did.
Look, I will readily admit I am a fan of the Dean/Roy recruiting model. I posted a thread a couple weeks ago about "Carolina Kids" and the long-term program benefits of vetting recruits to certain standards. Does that present extra challenges in the OAD era? Of course... and I understand folks getting antsy these days, especially when the Rat down the road has sold what's left of his soul for short-term gratification. But look at the long-term benefits: We are set to be able to start 5 HS All-Americans (usually a better college talent indicator than star rankings) who are all Juniors and Seniors! Nobody can match that.
Currently Roy is battling to fill a pending gap largely caused by the NCAA junk (now that's an excuse, albeit a damned good one), and as Dave correctly points out there is a hangover for all the reasons he lists.
As for "changing" on any kid, I report as I see/hear it at the time. It's a dynamic process involving 15-17 yr old kids with a lotta adults with agendas in their ears. The Carter situation is maddening because we were his odds-on favorite from early in the process (anyone who says otherwise doesn't know WTH they're talking about), but the NCAA junk opened the door for others to get in good and blow his head up. BUT, on the other hand with Washington (who liked us among others) we have seen his interest increase and Roy going full-tilt to get him. We have a battle on our hands and Shaka has an unfair advantage with U18, but it would not surprise me one bit if PJ is our next commit either.
As for PG, I am in the camp that it is a luxury position for this cycle, largely because of Jalek being on board. Yes, I've always liked Coleman, and also like Sexton (much better than Weatherspoon), but I feel like Jalek can be JB's proper successor and we are very well stocked now in the 2-guard position.
This will be a harrowing cycle but it may also be a rewarding one. We're off to a good start.
Regarding Bamba, Knox, PJ, etc. I am not saying we should cut off ties with a recruit and rescind offers. But I do think we'd have a better chance by, at the very least, sending out more offers. Which is what I've been suggesting since the beginning of July. If we're pushing hard for guys who aren't showing us much love and expecting them to flip while disregarding players who we could start making ground with as backups, that's a recipe for disaster. Regardless of how confident gary feels about our chances with Bamba, PJ, etc.
In case some have forgotten, we've had a "better shot" with players in the past, which didn't turn out to be much of a shot in the end, so I'm speaking from experience, not negativity.
I don't disagree with any of that. It sounds like the perfect situation for both Bamba and UNC.
But don't you think Dook is selling them on a similar idea? UK? Kansas? Each team involved is pitching their perfect strategy to get him to the #1 Pick. Of course ours sounds the best because we're UNC fans, but like you said, you can't get a good read on him, so we don't know what sounds the best to him. Now I'd love to believe that the things we haven't been able to do in years will suddenly happen, but I'm a realist. Not an optimist.
+1
This is where I ask my original question: Are we going to blame the NCAA for our recruiting problems, or are we going to disregard them in favor of blind optimism? I don't doubt the NCAA is still lingering over our heads, but you can't turn around and chastise those who feel unease about our recruitment and strategy.
"This is where I ask my original question: Are we going to blame the NCAA for our recruiting problems, or are we going to disregard them in favor of blind optimism? I don't doubt the NCAA is still lingering over our heads, but you can't turn around and chastise those who feel unease about our recruitment and strategy"
Please don't feel I am chastising you, I not only agree with that feeling of uneasy but I doubt there is anyone that posts here as a Tar Heel that feels anything but un-easy right now. Just because myself or anyone else feels some hope with a couple well regarded players does not mean we feel confident we will get them or feel anything but un-easy.
I kinda wish I could feel some of that blind optimism, that would mean I would be hugely confident that we will get a highly rated big man and I don't feel to overly confident about that right now. I think we have a very good shot at PJ and a reasonable shot at Bamba. I agreed with ya, I want us to get more offers out specifically to big men, blind optimism would not have me feeling the need for that.
The NCAA stuff is still a factor for this 2017 class because it was an unknown when the relationships were forged for the 2017 class, that starts for the most part in soph season, but this time in the game relationships are pretty firmly established and you have to beat a blue blood from behind. So the NCAA stuff is still a factor but is greatly relieved because at least now we can prove the basketball team is not looking at post season bans and other NCAA hits. But as I have said many times, it is not nor has it been exclusively the NCAA cloud that has hampered us recruiting, it was a factor but absolutely not the whole story. WE have a perception problem with the elite kids coming out that UNC is not the best place for a one & done level talent and that is not so easy to over come.
On Bamba, yeah duke is trying, they are recruiting the PG that he went to the Peach Jam finals with, they pitching as hard as they can. But I STRONGLY do not believe he will commit to the same school Carter does. 2 electrons can not occupy the same space, crazy stuff happens when they try...
Why do peeps insist on calling all optimism, "blind" and all pessimism, realism? It is possible to be realistic and optimistic. It is also possible to be pessimistic and blind to the truth. I like to think I occupy the middle ground. I see the issues out there, but I don't dwell on them. I tend to skew toward the positive interpretations of things, while some tend to analyze the negative aspects of things. This is why different peeps can look at the same data sets and come to vastly different conclusions.
I see recent events trending toward the positive, but some seem mired in past issues and refuse to see the clouds clearing until they see the full sun!
For example: I see us being in Carter's (and other top recruits') final set of schools as a positive indicating the changing feeling of top peeps toward UNC. "Realists" see it as him using us or playing with Roy's emotions with no intention of considering UNC. Same data and two plausible conclusions which defines the two sides of this debate.
I see recent events trending toward the positive, but some seem mired in past issues and refuse to see the clouds clearing until they see the full sun!
For example: I see us being in Carter's (and other top recruits') final set of schools as a positive indicating the changing feeling of top peeps toward UNC. "Realists" see it as him using us or playing with Roy's emotions with no intention of considering UNC. Same data and two plausible conclusions which defines the two sides of this debate.
I agree with most of your post. I just don't think being in Carter's top 8 is a good example. I just don't get a good feeling being in a top 10 , a top 3 or 4 then yes. I just think most of these kids are focused on 3-4 and they just like to make a couple or so announcements and include teams they have little to no interest in.
I agree that I could have chosen a better choice that we had a better shot with, but my intent was not to pick a kid that is likely to commit. I intended to contrast the fact that UNC is on the minds of more top recruits this year than last! I assume we will make his final four also, and this will be a sign of things to come as well. I watch kids as they talk about schools and last year faces were either negative or without emotion for the most part when talking about UNC. This year some of the old excitement is returning and I saw multiple kids faces change when the spoke of being recruited by UNC and Roy!
...except that we likely are in his top 3. Of course that may not matter if he has in fact swallowed the Capel Kool-aid, but again, if anything we were in his original top-1 a couple years ago (Damn it).
Well, great question and I think I can explain it. First, optimism i snot always blind, it isn't when there is something strong behind it, something more than hope or wishes. There really isn't a lot of solid tangible for us to hang our hopes to on Bamba or even PJ at this point. In other words, dukies are blindly optimistic for carter because they can not see any other result, who are we that solid on considering big men in this class?
The pessimistic view, kinda understandable considering what we have had several years of dark clouds and disappointments. It is understandable how folks can want the best but expect less.
With Carter and really any recruit, I would rather they eliminate us all together than to list us in a top 8 when they know they are not going to commit to us. It is fools gold that get expectations up when our focus should be elsewhere. If Carter is not really strongly considering us I would rather he drop us so some other recruit can know I do not have to worry about carter to UNC so I can look at UNC stronger today. Just my opinion.
Im pretty optimistic with PJ. Can every elit big man be dumb enough to pass on UNC with all the playing time, and how Roy feeds their bigs? I tell you what, if i am a big man with one and done aspirations, UNC is a great spot. Offense runs through the bigs.
Just a reminder to the pessimists...
In 2015 we had offers out to these guys:
02 Skal Labissiere
03 Brandon Ingram
04 Jaylen Brown
06 Diamond Stone
07 Ivan Robb
08 Malik Newman
09 Henry Ellinson
11 Stephen Zimmerman
15 Chase Jeter
16 Antonio Blakeney
21 Luke Kennard
25 PJ Dozier
40 Maverick Rowen
A year or so earlier, we all thought we had a very good shot at several of those guys.
We ended up with 156 Luke as an invited walkon in his first year and 97 Kenny - who was only available after Shaka Smart changed jobs. Not knocking these guys one bit, but that wasn't what we were used to.
On balance, I'd say we are in MUCH BETTER SHAPE now.
It isn't a total recovery. We are not offering as many of the top guys at the moment, and our expectations have been tempered somewhat. But I think we all feel were are well on our way.
In 2015 we had offers out to these guys:
02 Skal Labissiere
03 Brandon Ingram
04 Jaylen Brown
06 Diamond Stone
07 Ivan Robb
08 Malik Newman
09 Henry Ellinson
11 Stephen Zimmerman
15 Chase Jeter
16 Antonio Blakeney
21 Luke Kennard
25 PJ Dozier
40 Maverick Rowen
A year or so earlier, we all thought we had a very good shot at several of those guys.
We ended up with 156 Luke as an invited walkon in his first year and 97 Kenny - who was only available after Shaka Smart changed jobs. Not knocking these guys one bit, but that wasn't what we were used to.
On balance, I'd say we are in MUCH BETTER SHAPE now.
It isn't a total recovery. We are not offering as many of the top guys at the moment, and our expectations have been tempered somewhat. But I think we all feel were are well on our way.
Yep, that was the height of the DSPN driven "post season ban" hype.
I also reckon a couple on that list didn't consider UNC because of the front court depth (Brice, Kennedy, Isaiah) and the misinformation out there that Roy doesn't play frosh.
Interesting to see guys on that list who chose other schools, got all the PT they wanted, went OAD and bombed in the draft!! (Stone, Zimmerman)
Where's Roy?
Tracking Roy Williams on the Recruiting Trail
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Watching 2017 C Nate Watson, 2017 SF Kevin Knox, 2017 C Nick Richards, 2017 PG Tremont Waters, and 2017 SF Jermaine Samuels at the Fab48 in Las Vegas, NV
3 names we haven't heard Roy recruiting before. Looks like some got their wish with Roy expanding his recruiting.
Tracking Roy Williams on the Recruiting Trail
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Watching 2017 C Nate Watson, 2017 SF Kevin Knox, 2017 C Nick Richards, 2017 PG Tremont Waters, and 2017 SF Jermaine Samuels at the Fab48 in Las Vegas, NV
3 names we haven't heard Roy recruiting before. Looks like some got their wish with Roy expanding his recruiting.
Thanks for that SK... peeps gotta believe there's a lot more play left in this class.
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