Duke next season, yeah, I know mikey...LOL

[DSouthr]

I don't intend this to be a bash duke thread, hope it doesn't become that. I have a sincere question about duke next season and I would like to get others thoughts. IMO is is always useful to understand your major competition before you set your expectations and that is all this is, my wanting to understand our main competition in the ACC next season or at least who I think our main competition will come from.

We all know, duke is getting Giles & Tatum, both very talented guys but IMO both are very similar type of players. Both are really solid mid range jump shooters that can put the ball on the floor and finish above the rim. There seems to be a growing feeling that Bolden will lend up at Ky, even duke insiders have just switched predicts from duke to Ky for Bolden. Now they could for sure still snag him but lets assume that Bolden ends up at Ky.

That means most likely Jefferson starts at the 5, I assume Giles maybe at the 4 with Tatum at the 3? But Giles is kinda more in the mold of a long wing than a power forward and Tatum is for sure a long wing. Neither shoot well outside of about 20ft. So my question becomes does duke play with 2 long wings that are not 3pt specialists? They would be some what similar to our playing Theo and Justin together but a little longer however Justin is a 3pt threat that you have to respect, so far neither Giles nor Tatum have shown that as a strength. Can either defend 4s like Issiah or Tony Bradley, can jefferson defend the strength of Meeks and then the length of Tony?

I also wonder, you are going to start Allen and I don;t know how you don't start Jackson and play both a ton of minutes but how does that effect kennard who I really like as a player. Allen has to get his shots in and seems to have a constant green light but Giles and Tatum have to have the spotlight on their game because their deal is serve this one yr in college sentence and get paid. Who ends up giving up their offense so a team member can get his? Do the upper classmen sit back as the freshmen get the PT and honors and not have a problem with it? I have to believe that Allen sit and watched his frosh season but he has to believe he is done with all the watchin and I suspect his decision to not even test the draft waters indicates he may feel next years team is his, that he is the straw that stirs the drink. So I am wondering, will chemistry work out, chemistry is always a concern when you have so many freshmen starting. I do know this much, kennard is to darn good a player to come off anyone's bench and what about matt Jones, does he now become head cheer leader?

One of the main reasons I wonder is K really prefers a shorter rotation, he does not like to go more than 8 deep and in the post season you see him many times cut it to 7. Will Jeter be able to handle back up minutes to jefferson or does K use Giles and Tatum as his 4 & 5 a lot and go with a smaller wing??

I honestly would like to get some duke fans impression on my questions because I really want to understand what the competition looks like for us next season. I do realize that K has a great rack record of meshing together upper classmen to frosh, I am not saying it will not work out, just looking for opinions of what others see or think.

 

[HeelFan58]

I don't intend this to be a bash duke thread, hope it doesn't become that. I have a sincere question about duke next season and I would like to get others thoughts. IMO is is always useful to understand your major competition before you set your expectations and that is all this is, my wanting to understand our main competition in the ACC next season or at least who I think our main competition will come from.

We all know, duke is getting Giles & Tatum, both very talented guys but IMO both are very similar type of players. Both are really solid mid range jump shooters that can put the ball on the floor and finish above the rim. There seems to be a growing feeling that Bolden will lend up at Ky, even duke insiders have just switched predicts from duke to Ky for Bolden. Now they could for sure still snag him but lets assume that Bolden ends up at Ky.

That means most likely Jefferson starts at the 5, I assume Giles maybe at the 4 with Tatum at the 3? But Giles is kinda more in the mold of a long wing than a power forward and Tatum is for sure a long wing. Neither shoot well outside of about 20ft. So my question becomes does duke play with 2 long wings that are not 3pt specialists? They would be some what similar to our playing Theo and Justin together but a little longer however Justin is a 3pt threat that you have to respect, so far neither Giles nor Tatum have shown that as a strength. Can either defend 4s like Issiah or Tony Bradley, can jefferson defend the strength of Meeks and then the length of Tony?

I also wonder, you are going to start Allen and I don;t know how you don't start Jackson and play both a ton of minutes but how does that effect kennard who I really like as a player. Allen has to get his shots in and seems to have a constant green light but Giles and Tatum have to have the spotlight on their game because their deal is serve this one yr in college sentence and get paid. Who ends up giving up their offense so a team member can get his? Do the upper classmen sit back as the freshmen get the PT and honors and not have a problem with it? I have to believe that Allen sit and watched his frosh season but he has to believe he is done with all the watchin and I suspect his decision to not even test the draft waters indicates he may feel next years team is his, that he is the straw that stirs the drink. So I am wondering, will chemistry work out, chemistry is always a concern when you have so many freshmen starting. I do know this much, kennard is to darn good a player to come off anyone's bench and what about matt Jones, does he now become head cheer leader?

One of the main reasons I wonder is K really prefers a shorter rotation, he does not like to go more than 8 deep and in the post season you see him many times cut it to 7. Will Jeter be able to handle back up minutes to jefferson or does K use Giles and Tatum as his 4 & 5 a lot and go with a smaller wing??

I honestly would like to get some duke fans impression on my questions because I really want to understand what the competition looks like for us next season. I do realize that K has a great rack record of meshing together upper classmen to frosh, I am not saying it will not work out, just looking for opinions of what others see or think.

I predict one ball will not be enough. I also don't think Giles recovers from the ACL as quickly as the dookies do.

 

[Steat]

I really think Giles is only going to be a shell of his former self. I wish the kid the best, but think he is making the biggest mistake of his life. He will not be game ready until December. He is risking another injury . Hicks will blow by him.

 

[gary-7]

I don't intend this to be a bash duke thread, hope it doesn't become that. I have a sincere question about duke next season and I would like to get others thoughts. IMO is is always useful to understand your major competition before you set your expectations and that is all this is, my wanting to understand our main competition in the ACC next season or at least who I think our main competition will come from.

We all know, duke is getting Giles & Tatum, both very talented guys but IMO both are very similar type of players. Both are really solid mid range jump shooters that can put the ball on the floor and finish above the rim. There seems to be a growing feeling that Bolden will lend up at Ky, even duke insiders have just switched predicts from duke to Ky for Bolden. Now they could for sure still snag him but lets assume that Bolden ends up at Ky.

That means most likely Jefferson starts at the 5, I assume Giles maybe at the 4 with Tatum at the 3? But Giles is kinda more in the mold of a long wing than a power forward and Tatum is for sure a long wing. Neither shoot well outside of about 20ft. So my question becomes does duke play with 2 long wings that are not 3pt specialists? They would be some what similar to our playing Theo and Justin together but a little longer however Justin is a 3pt threat that you have to respect, so far neither Giles nor Tatum have shown that as a strength. Can either defend 4s like Issiah or Tony Bradley, can jefferson defend the strength of Meeks and then the length of Tony?

I also wonder, you are going to start Allen and I don;t know how you don't start Jackson and play both a ton of minutes but how does that effect kennard who I really like as a player. Allen has to get his shots in and seems to have a constant green light but Giles and Tatum have to have the spotlight on their game because their deal is serve this one yr in college sentence and get paid. Who ends up giving up their offense so a team member can get his? Do the upper classmen sit back as the freshmen get the PT and honors and not have a problem with it? I have to believe that Allen sit and watched his frosh season but he has to believe he is done with all the watchin and I suspect his decision to not even test the draft waters indicates he may feel next years team is his, that he is the straw that stirs the drink. So I am wondering, will chemistry work out, chemistry is always a concern when you have so many freshmen starting. I do know this much, kennard is to darn good a player to come off anyone's bench and what about matt Jones, does he now become head cheer leader?

One of the main reasons I wonder is K really prefers a shorter rotation, he does not like to go more than 8 deep and in the post season you see him many times cut it to 7. Will Jeter be able to handle back up minutes to jefferson or does K use Giles and Tatum as his 4 & 5 a lot and go with a smaller wing??

I honestly would like to get some duke fans impression on my questions because I really want to understand what the competition looks like for us next season. I do realize that K has a great rack record of meshing together upper classmen to frosh, I am not saying it will not work out, just looking for opinions of what others see or think.

OK Dave, if you want us to take this seriously you're gonna need to go back and edit your OP and spell "dook" correctly

 

[HeelFan58]

If there is a dook thread . them I'm a gonna be a bashing.

 

[dadika13]

They have like 4 lottery picks. Kennard of the bench is deadly. Unfortunately, they should be very very good, that's really just the bottom line.

 

[UNC Blue Hup]

Yeah, they're loaded--that's ok..it's how they play together..we play together and that can make up for a talent difference--if JJ and Meeks come back...the lack of minutes for them causes problems with selfishness and the 'get yours' while you're on the court--our guys are very unselfish and have played together..we'll see

 

[gary-7]

I don't intend this to be a bash duke thread, hope it doesn't become that. I have a sincere question about duke next season and I would like to get others thoughts. IMO is is always useful to understand your major competition before you set your expectations and that is all this is, my wanting to understand our main competition in the ACC next season or at least who I think our main competition will come from.

We all know, duke is getting Giles & Tatum, both very talented guys but IMO both are very similar type of players. Both are really solid mid range jump shooters that can put the ball on the floor and finish above the rim. There seems to be a growing feeling that Bolden will lend up at Ky, even duke insiders have just switched predicts from duke to Ky for Bolden. Now they could for sure still snag him but lets assume that Bolden ends up at Ky.

That means most likely Jefferson starts at the 5, I assume Giles maybe at the 4 with Tatum at the 3? But Giles is kinda more in the mold of a long wing than a power forward and Tatum is for sure a long wing. Neither shoot well outside of about 20ft. So my question becomes does duke play with 2 long wings that are not 3pt specialists? They would be some what similar to our playing Theo and Justin together but a little longer however Justin is a 3pt threat that you have to respect, so far neither Giles nor Tatum have shown that as a strength. Can either defend 4s like Issiah or Tony Bradley, can jefferson defend the strength of Meeks and then the length of Tony?

I also wonder, you are going to start Allen and I don;t know how you don't start Jackson and play both a ton of minutes but how does that effect kennard who I really like as a player. Allen has to get his shots in and seems to have a constant green light but Giles and Tatum have to have the spotlight on their game because their deal is serve this one yr in college sentence and get paid. Who ends up giving up their offense so a team member can get his? Do the upper classmen sit back as the freshmen get the PT and honors and not have a problem with it? I have to believe that Allen sit and watched his frosh season but he has to believe he is done with all the watchin and I suspect his decision to not even test the draft waters indicates he may feel next years team is his, that he is the straw that stirs the drink. So I am wondering, will chemistry work out, chemistry is always a concern when you have so many freshmen starting. I do know this much, kennard is to darn good a player to come off anyone's bench and what about matt Jones, does he now become head cheer leader?

One of the main reasons I wonder is K really prefers a shorter rotation, he does not like to go more than 8 deep and in the post season you see him many times cut it to 7. Will Jeter be able to handle back up minutes to jefferson or does K use Giles and Tatum as his 4 & 5 a lot and go with a smaller wing??

I honestly would like to get some duke fans impression on my questions because I really want to understand what the competition looks like for us next season. I do realize that K has a great rack record of meshing together upper classmen to frosh, I am not saying it will not work out, just looking for opinions of what others see or think.

Arrright Dave... quick point-by-point answer.
The bad news (from our perspective):
- They will be loaded with (albeit raw) talent.
- Tatum is the real deal as an offensive player.
- Jackson can fill it up and has an advanced offensive game
- Giles is a major talent
- Jefferson (for all the fun we poke at him) is a very solid senior presence and frontcourt player.
- I agree with some on here who say Kennard is their most underrated player.

The good news (from our perspective):
- They still don't have what I would call a true PG (Jackson is closer than Allen, but Thornton coulda been a big asset for them --- oh well)
- I agree with those who say Giles will take a while to be 100%
- Will Jaclkson's offensive game hold up as a college freshman? Maybe, but lessee how he enjoys a nasty dog wearing #2 in Carolina Blue all up in his grille all night
- Like Jabari Parker, Tatum again is the real deal on offense. BUT, will he play any defense? Parker sure as hell didn't.
- Like most teams with key frosh, they will likely peak late, but will they be able to stave off the next Mercer to come along in the Dance?
- Will these guys be any better defensively than last season? Jefferson will help, but doubtful.
- Allen is still a BITCH. Lessee how these spoiled freshmen react to his constant ill-advised drives.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Good points Gary, particularly the last..... I'd turn it around and say it's going to be interesting to see how Allen responds to not being top dog - could be Tatum, Giles or Jackson.

I'm hoping to see some of this:

• In fighting and bickering over which players get chosen to 'star' with K in his next dspn promo ad.
• Luke and Obi resorting to Star Wars themed Monmouth-style bench celebrations once they realise that's the only way they'll get any TV time for the season.
• Dook Transfer Tracker going into overdrive mid-December when K tells the media what an amazing job he's doing with only 6 players.
• K's back goes into spasm when the Heels sweep Dook for the first time since Psycho T was suited up.
• A first round exit, hopefully at the hands of Wes Miller coached UNCG

Well.... I can hope

 

[DSouthr]

Arrright Dave... quick point-by-point answer.
The bad news (from our perspective):
- They will be loaded with (albeit raw) talent.
- Tatum is the real deal as an offensive player.
- Jackson can fill it up and has an advanced offensive game
- Giles is a major talent
- Jefferson (for all the fun we poke at him) is a very solid senior presence and frontcourt player.
- I agree with some on here who say Kennard is their most underrated player.

The good news (from our perspective):
- They still don't have what I would call a true PG (Jackson is closer than Allen, but Thornton coulda been a big asset for them --- oh well)
- I agree with those who say Giles will take a while to be 100%
- Will Jaclkson's offensive game hold up as a college freshman? Maybe, but lessee how he enjoys a nasty dog wearing #2 in Carolina Blue all up in his grille all night
- Like Jabari Parker, Tatum again is the real deal on offense. BUT, will he play any defense? Parker sure as hell didn't.
- Like most teams with key frosh, they will likely peak late, but will they be able to stave off the next Mercer to come along in the Dance?
- Will these guys be any better defensively than last season? Jefferson will help, but doubtful.
- Allen is still a BITCH. Lessee how these spoiled freshmen react to his constant ill-advised drives.

First off I am gonna assume that Giles is fully healthy and ready to play, I would rather take the "best case" from the dukie standpoint when I am looking to set expectations. I want to consider what duke has with all its weapons working and available.

I think it will take them a while to find a mesh that works for them, someone is going to have to give up some of their personal offense for the team, it IMO should be Allen. Great point that duke has actually less PGs now than they had this past season with Thorton gone, Allen played a lot of PG this past season however and handled it. I think Jackson can play the point as well but in truth both are 2 guards. Post season play seems to really wash teams out that do not have great PG play so that could be a problem.

Tatum & Giles are fantastic talents for sure but to me they are similar type of talents, very offense minded, both seem more like long wings than power forwards even thou both are 6'9"ish. Neither are 3pt specialists like Ingram was, they are mid range guys that like to drive to finish at the rim or take the sweet mid range. I think if I were a dukie I would prefer they have different skill sets, maybe one that was more a inside guy and the other more of an outside guy but both seem to me to be tweeners.

I would suggest Tatum and Giles would be more effective in the wide open court running game, same with jackson I would add. Do they have the rebounding and PG pay to ignite the running game? They should be able to go 6'9" across 3 positions and good length at the guard spots as well so you would expect them to be able to rebound. One thing they will miss from this past season is that huge inside physical banger they had in PLumlee. While many feel Jefferson can more than make up for the loss of PLum, jefferson is not exactly 7ft or what was plum around 260lbs? Jefferson will have to have an amazing season and stay healthy and out of foul trouble because best I can tell it is Jeter behind him, thou I do expect Jeter to improve. The reason so many duke fans really wanted Bolden is the fact that jeter backing up jefferson scares them and maybe it should.

If duke goes big as I expect them to with Giles/Tatum/Jefferson then 3pt shooting becomes a problem and duke has made their living from the 3pt arch, Allen is not going to bomb away from out there and jackson is more a drive slash & finish guy with athletism, Kennard shooting treys does not hurt you if he is in the bench.

Yeah, I wonder about them on the defensive end, Tatum and Giles are athletic but they are not rated as high as they are for defense, they are scorers more so than defenders. Do they defend big teams or broad shoulder strong guys inside the paint like Meeks and Hicks? Can their guards defend guards that are quicker and looking to penatrate the lane?

With Giles & tatum I think you have to pound the ball in to them and let them operate with little turn around jumpers and the occasional put it on the floor and finish strong. Try to isolate the length match up they should have on the wing but they didn't do a great job of that with Ingram until really late season, they had him outside taking way to many jump shots. I think they are going to have to limit Allen's 40ft kamakazi drive flops to the basket and replace that with more drive & dish to Giles or Tatum action and maybe those drives would better suit Jackson with Allen setting up as a catch & shoot guy.

Much like last season, duke has a strong starting group but very little off the bench, it is pretty much kennard a shooter, Jones a defender, and jeter a mystery off their bench. meaning 1 big man in reserve and that one reserve big man did not show much as a frosh to the extend that K himself seemed to infer the kid was not even on the team.

Of course you have to wonder how healthy Giles knees will be, 2 repaired knees before reaching college, do they limit him physically or mentally? I think it is going to have to be in his mind, will that make him tentative? But you also have Jefferson who got medical red shirt for his broken foot, has had plenty of time to heal but broken bones in big men's feet can be an on going thing and jefferson never came back from it when the doctors seemed to indicate he would be back by late regular season?

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Another Duke thread ...........................

 

[TRU CANE]

I think many know I'm a pretty honest and straight forward guy or atleast I try to be. I believe I was on record that Duke would be an ok team this past year with Carolina clearly the favorite.

This year, I think Duke will be very very good. My biggest and only concern is at point guard. To me that is the only thing that may hold this team back from realizing its full potential. I feel this way because of the mix in returning leadership and lottery pick type talent. I don't really think there is any need to over analyze here.

Really, try to think of any team in history with the level of incoming talent and returning experience that Duke has. It's hard to find such a team that didn't have a very good year. Now winning it all is another thing as that is difficult no matter what but this Duke team is NOTHING and will be NOTHING like the teams that lost in first round to Mercer and Lehigh.

I haven't even added the K factor. Let's be honest if there was any coach who could get kids to play hard and buy in its this one.

 

[CanuckChuck]

I think they go something like:

Jefferson Jeter
Giles
Tatum
Jones/Kennard
Allan Jackson

Of course only 7 of these (at best) will get meaningful minutes after Jan 1.
If Giles is healthy and Tatum plays up front then Jeter sits again.
If Giles is healthy and Tatum thrives on the wing then Jones/Kennard is the odd man out
If Giles is not 100% then he's this years Jeter.

How good they will be is anyone's guess. I like Jefferson - blue color around the rim type. Allan can shoot and lives off getting fouled on the drive. Kennard is Allan lite. Jones can shoot. None really defend except for Jefferson. Other than that I don't know what to expect from the rest. They could be really good (win the ACC) or just good (top 4 in ACC).

If 7th can defend and JJ returns I think the Heels will match up pretty well on defense. On offense I just wonder where our points will come from as Pinson, Britt, and Hicks did little to nothing vs Duke this year.

CC

 

[DSouthr]

I think many know I'm a pretty honest and straight forward guy or atleast I try to be. I believe I was on record that Duke would be an ok team this past year with Carolina clearly the favorite.

This year, I think Duke will be very very good. My biggest and only concern is at point guard. To me that is the only thing that may hold this team back from realizing its full potential. I feel this way because of the mix in returning leadership and lottery pick type talent. I don't really think there is any need to over analyze here.

Really, try to think of any team in history with the level of incoming talent and returning experience that Duke has. It's hard to find such a team that didn't have a very good year. Now winning it all is another thing as that is difficult no matter what but this Duke team is NOTHING and will be NOTHING like the teams that lost in first round to Mercer and Lehigh.

I haven't even added the K factor. Let's be honest if there was any coach who could get kids to play hard and buy in its this one.

Tru, I am looking for some analysis, not over analyze, are you looking for a dramatic improvement in jeter? IMO Giles and Tatum are similar type of players, do you see that differently? Not looking to pick a fight, I am honeslty trying to get a feel, a true feel for what I can expect from duke next season. Just telling me they are 3 lotto level guys does not really tell me anything, none have proven that at this level. I would prefer you break them down individually and access them for us, I would like to see your insite on exactly how you see them playing. And not just to say you are wrong, that is not my purpose. I just think it is really important to know what your largest threat can bring at you and duke should easily be our biggest threat in the ACC, I assume you feel the same about my Heels.

I would especially like to see your take on all 3 of your freshmen and especially Jackson, he is the one I am the less knowledgeable about.

 

[heelmanwilm]

they will def have some talent. Course ky had as much if not more talent last year if u go by recruiting class rankings.

 

[coolwaterunc]

tl;dr

F them.

 

[TRU CANE]

Will do South give me some time I got you.

 

[Coach325]

@DSouthr ...........as another Duke fan, here is my take on next year's team. You have covered most of the points already. PG is obviously going to be the question mark. Duke fans will point to 2010 as an example of K winning without a 'true PG" but we were playing with an experienced Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Next year will be Allen and Jackson. Neither have played any as a collegiate PG. So that is a concern.

As far as what you were saying about Giles and Tatum being the same type player, I tend to respectfully disagree with you on that one. Giles is more of a traditional PF type. Long, athletic, and good back to the basket game. He will get a lot of rebounds and garbage points. Tatum is more of a SF type and likes to hang out on the perimeter. He handles the ball and shoots MUCH better than Giles does. Assuming we don't get Bolden, I think you will see Tatum at the 4 at times, but it will be a 4 around 1 verses him being in the post. Giles shoots and handles the ball "ok" but he will need to improve on that to make an impact in the NBA.

Of course, the wildcard in all this is IF Giles is 100% as you guys have already discussed. I personally hope he is eased back into things and can really start going hard by Christmas time. Reports are that the rehab is going good and he is ahead of schedule and it has to be hard for a young guy like him to watch for 2 straight years. So patience will be key with him.

Frank Jackson is a question mark for me. Duke fans will tell you he is the next Jay Williams and could be one and done. I think that is putting way too much pressure on him. I am hoping that we can get by with Allen/Jones/Kennard and bring Jackson along without "throwing him in the fire" immediately. By season's end I hope that he is our starting PG, unless K is determined to make Allen our PG.

 

[dadika13]

Yeah, I'm not sure how anyone who has watched either of them play even once can say Tatum and Giles play the same game. It's like saying Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant played the same game.

I've watched Jackson play a few times as well, he will step in and be good right away. That lineup is terrifying.

We had our run this year, they will have theirs next year. I just expect our 2017 team to be much better than their 2016 team.

 

[DevilBlue]

Tru, I am looking for some analysis, not over analyze, are you looking for a dramatic improvement in jeter? IMO Giles and Tatum are similar type of players, do you see that differently? Not looking to pick a fight, I am honeslty trying to get a feel, a true feel for what I can expect from duke next season. Just telling me they are 3 lotto level guys does not really tell me anything, none have proven that at this level. I would prefer you break them down individually and access them for us, I would like to see your insite on exactly how you see them playing. And not just to say you are wrong, that is not my purpose. I just think it is really important to know what your largest threat can bring at you and duke should easily be our biggest threat in the ACC, I assume you feel the same about my Heels.

I would especially like to see your take on all 3 of your freshmen and especially Jackson, he is the one I am the less knowledgeable about.

My thoughts on Duke. I think Jeter improves significantly with another year to add muscle and work on his game. I saw a lot of times he would slip behind the D but couldn't handle the pass for an easy basket. Gotta soften those hands up and obviously not foul out in 10 minutes. As for PG...I think Allen will start the year there. He lead the team in assists last year, and his draft stock improvement is likely based on his ability to play point. I think he understands this and while he is a score first guy, I think he will take a step back in scoring...15ish ppg and see his assists numbers increase to mid 4s. The big issue with him and Jackson playing point to me is Duke needs to move the ball and bodies as opposed to just passing to one guy and clearing out for 1 on 1. In terms of minutes, Jefferson and Giles likely get the bulk of the 4 and 5 with Jeter getting 12-16 minutes a game in relief(this assumes some improvement as well as Giles being healthy) I think that Tatum may play a little 4 at times when the matchup is optimal but likely is at the 3 most times. Jackson, Allen, Kennard, and Jones will play the 1-2 with some 3 thrown in there. While its a lot of star power and people see that as potential issues, K tends to get guys on board with his system. I don't see there being much issue with those 8 guys. I doubt Obi, Vrank, and White get much burn next year, and Javin I've heard good things but he might be a year from contributing. In the end I think Dukes potential will be capped by how much Jackson and Allen can play more pass first...

 

[trig81]

Attention duke fans! You have been ordered NOT to post on this thread by your devoted Minister of Misery on DI.

He believes you are being lured into a trap. Consider yourself warned, and post at your own risk!

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

Over/under on tripping?

 

[gunslingerdick]

Over/under on tripping?

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

@DSouthr ...........as another Duke fan, here is my take on next year's team. You have covered most of the points already. PG is obviously going to be the question mark. Duke fans will point to 2010 as an example of K winning without a 'true PG" but we were playing with an experienced Scheyer and Nolan Smith. Next year will be Allen and Jackson. Neither have played any as a collegiate PG. So that is a concern.

As far as what you were saying about Giles and Tatum being the same type player, I tend to respectfully disagree with you on that one. Giles is more of a traditional PF type. Long, athletic, and good back to the basket game. He will get a lot of rebounds and garbage points. Tatum is more of a SF type and likes to hang out on the perimeter. He handles the ball and shoots MUCH better than Giles does. Assuming we don't get Bolden, I think you will see Tatum at the 4 at times, but it will be a 4 around 1 verses him being in the post. Giles shoots and handles the ball "ok" but he will need to improve on that to make an impact in the NBA.

Of course, the wildcard in all this is IF Giles is 100% as you guys have already discussed. I personally hope he is eased back into things and can really start going hard by Christmas time. Reports are that the rehab is going good and he is ahead of schedule and it has to be hard for a young guy like him to watch for 2 straight years. So patience will be key with him.

Frank Jackson is a question mark for me. Duke fans will tell you he is the next Jay Williams and could be one and done. I think that is putting way too much pressure on him. I am hoping that we can get by with Allen/Jones/Kennard and bring Jackson along without "throwing him in the fire" immediately. By season's end I hope that he is our starting PG, unless K is determined to make Allen our PG.

grayson initiated the offense a lot and led the team with assists...he wasn't THE pg, but he played that role pretty well

 

[Coach325]

^^ True, but I am afraid there are two scenarios that COULD happen and neither would be good for Duke.

1) Allen sets out to prove to the NBA scouts he can play PG and tried to distribute only. We need him to score as well.
2) Allen looks for his shot the majority of the time like he did last year and doesn't get others involved.

Now, if he can find a happy medium, then it may just work.

 

[DSouthr]

My thoughts on Duke. I think Jeter improves significantly with another year to add muscle and work on his game. I saw a lot of times he would slip behind the D but couldn't handle the pass for an easy basket. Gotta soften those hands up and obviously not foul out in 10 minutes. As for PG...I think Allen will start the year there. He lead the team in assists last year, and his draft stock improvement is likely based on his ability to play point. I think he understands this and while he is a score first guy, I think he will take a step back in scoring...15ish ppg and see his assists numbers increase to mid 4s. The big issue with him and Jackson playing point to me is Duke needs to move the ball and bodies as opposed to just passing to one guy and clearing out for 1 on 1. In terms of minutes, Jefferson and Giles likely get the bulk of the 4 and 5 with Jeter getting 12-16 minutes a game in relief(this assumes some improvement as well as Giles being healthy) I think that Tatum may play a little 4 at times when the matchup is optimal but likely is at the 3 most times. Jackson, Allen, Kennard, and Jones will play the 1-2 with some 3 thrown in there. While its a lot of star power and people see that as potential issues, K tends to get guys on board with his system. I don't see there being much issue with those 8 guys. I doubt Obi, Vrank, and White get much burn next year, and Javin I've heard good things but he might be a year from contributing. In the end I think Dukes potential will be capped by how much Jackson and Allen can play more pass first...

Yeah, I kinda agree, actually I may think more of Delaurer than many dukies seem to, I think he can play but problem is he will be behind Giles & Tatum, so I do agree with your maybe a year away thinking. I saw a lot of Allen and kennard on the floor together last season, seemed to work out pretty well so I suspect Allen gets dibs on the PG role and I agree, in a Sheyer type role but the rub comes in when Allen feels he needs to show his scoring and starts taking those one on one drives from way out front. Giles and Tatum are assumed to be NBA ready by end of next season, not sure Allen feels that he can fade to the background and it not hurt his NBA stock. Kinda hard for a scorer to take that step back to being a facillitator and give up the green light like he had this past season. It could work out as it did with Scheyer but it could as well not work.

 

[DevilBlue]

Yeah, I kinda agree, actually I may think more of Delaurer than many dukies seem to, I think he can play but problem is he will be behind Giles & Tatum, so I do agree with your maybe a year away thinking. I saw a lot of Allen and kennard on the floor together last season, seemed to work out pretty well so I suspect Allen gets dibs on the PG role and I agree, in a Sheyer type role but the rub comes in when Allen feels he needs to show his scoring and starts taking those one on one drives from way out front. Giles and Tatum are assumed to be NBA ready by end of next season, not sure Allen feels that he can fade to the background and it not hurt his NBA stock. Kinda hard for a scorer to take that step back to being a facillitator and give up the green light like he had this past season. It could work out as it did with Scheyer but it could as well not work.

Its key that he plays smart. If he's playing the PG, much like Scheyer hes 6'5" and most PGs in college aren't. This lead to a lot of mismatches where Scheyer would either shoot over or drive. I expect Grayson won't stop this just because he's trying to up his assist numbers. The key will be knowing when its working and not. Duke will have a very big team next year(shortest guy is 6'4" in Jackson) so Grayson needs to see when the small guy is on him vs when teams move their SG or SF over and then Jackson, Jones, Kennart, Tatum have the mismatch and need the ball.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

Yeah, I kinda agree, actually I may think more of Delaurer than many dukies seem to, I think he can play but problem is he will be behind Giles & Tatum, so I do agree with your maybe a year away thinking. I saw a lot of Allen and kennard on the floor together last season, seemed to work out pretty well so I suspect Allen gets dibs on the PG role and I agree, in a Sheyer type role but the rub comes in when Allen feels he needs to show his scoring and starts taking those one on one drives from way out front. Giles and Tatum are assumed to be NBA ready by end of next season, not sure Allen feels that he can fade to the background and it not hurt his NBA stock. Kinda hard for a scorer to take that step back to being a facillitator and give up the green light like he had this past season. It could work out as it did with Scheyer but it could as well not work.

grayson has already proved to the nba that he can score....a drop in points for grayson wont really be a bad thing, i expect it with the talent that we will have...he will still be grayson, but just have more help and will be in a position to pick and choose rather than last year with he and ingram as the primaries and play a few less minutes because of the overall talent

 

[DSouthr]

^^ True, but I am afraid there are two scenarios that COULD happen and neither would be good for Duke.

1) Allen sets out to prove to the NBA scouts he can play PG and tried to distribute only. We need him to score as well.
2) Allen looks for his shot the majority of the time like he did last year and doesn't get others involved.

Now, if he can find a happy medium, then it may just work.

I appreciate the candor, wondering, do you think Giles may have lost some of his explosion vertically? Reason I ask, while folks love to talk about guys coming back from a knee in less than a year, I think most medical experts will tell you it usually takes a guy 2yrs to come back to the extent he will be fully back or at least as fully back as he is going to get. Surgery on both knees over the last 2years, I just don't know how you come back and be ready for practice as a frosh? I do not want to take any joy in the kid's injury, not my point at all, if he can pull it off he needs to be given a cape to go with his uniform cause that is some monster will power if he is able to do that.

Also curious if you feel, I do, that maybe the second injury was a result from him favoring the originally hurt knee. That kind of thing actually happens a lot and most times the player does not realize he is favoring that former injury to the extent he actually is. I know many have said he was 100% fully recovered before his last knee injury but having had major joint surgery myself that just is hard for me to accept. I am not saying he was not 100% recovered but being 100% recovered does not mean he was as sound on that joint as he was pre-injury. I am sure that medical practice for this has evolved and is much better than when I was cut but ever being as sound as it was naturally, I struggle to understand.

I am actually not saying this to piss off duke fans but the kid is taking a risk I don't know that I would want a son of mine to take by looking to play college ball next season. It may work out great for him but you have to know if he re-injures either of those knees, his NBA stock will fall like a rock. I would have him do nothing but rehab and strengthen both those knees, working both on leg power and flexability at a place like IMG. If that would scare scouts and NBA GMs so be it but no matter if he plays for duke and does not re-injure or not and just strengthened for a year, he would still be drafted first round and still likely lotto. IMO just seems like a strong gamble on his part but hard for me to understand why you take such a high stakes gamble with so much money at risk? And yeah, I would hold no different opinion if he were a Tar Heel and not a dukie. As a fan I would want to see him play but from his side I would wonder why he would take that risk when I don't think he has to.

 

[DevilBlue]

I appreciate the candor, wondering, do you think Giles may have lost some of his explosion vertically? Reason I ask, while folks love to talk about guys coming back from a knee in less than a year, I think most medical experts will tell you it usually takes a guy 2yrs to come back to the extent he will be fully back or at least as fully back as he is going to get. Surgery on both knees over the last 2years, I just don't know how you come back and be ready for practice as a frosh? I do not want to take any joy in the kid's injury, not my point at all, if he can pull it off he needs to be given a cape to go with his uniform cause that is some monster will power if he is able to do that.

Also curious if you feel, I do, that maybe the second injury was a result from him favoring the originally hurt knee. That kind of thing actually happens a lot and most times the player does not realize he is favoring that former injury to the extent he actually is. I know many have said he was 100% fully recovered before his last knee injury but having had major joint surgery myself that just is hard for me to accept. I am not saying he was not 100% recovered but being 100% recovered does not mean he was as sound on that joint as he was pre-injury. I am sure that medical practice for this has evolved and is much better than when I was cut but ever being as sound as it was naturally, I struggle to understand.

I am actually not saying this to piss off duke fans but the kid is taking a risk I don't know that I would want a son of mine to take by looking to play college ball next season. It may work out great for him but you have to know if he re-injures either of those knees, his NBA stock will fall like a rock. I would have him do nothing but rehab and strengthen both those knees, working both on leg power and flexability at a place like IMG. If that would scare scouts and NBA GMs so be it but no matter if he plays for duke and does not re-injure or not and just strengthened for a year, he would still be drafted first round and still likely lotto. IMO just seems like a strong gamble on his part but hard for me to understand why you take such a high stakes gamble with so much money at risk? And yeah, I would hold no different opinion if he were a Tar Heel and not a dukie. As a fan I would want to see him play but from his side I would wonder why he would take that risk when I don't think he has to.

I'm no doctor. I have heard that the people working on his leg and Giles himself are happy with the progress. Obviously there is risk, and I agree often favoring a leg during rehab makes it more injury prone. I would say if Giles did what you said and straight rehabbed with no college its a risk, but likely he would still be picked and could certainly to plenty in front of teams to showcase what he can do. On that same note, some teams might be scared by that. I guess its the same as any kid who after freshman year is a lotto pick, but comes back. He could improve...he could injure himself. There are no guarantees. I do feel most kids want to play. Look at LSUs RB. People have said he should sit the year, avoid injury, and be the next AP. Yet the kid clearly wants to be on the field even with risk. Giles is an adult...let him decide. I would also assume the kid has insurance(I know football players often have up to 5 mil should an injury keep them from being drafted)

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Giles will be fine. This is 2016. ACL recoveries are full these days.

 

[Coach325]

Obviously, we will have to wait and see what happens with Giles' knees. PG and his health is probably are 2 biggest concerns next year.

As for him not playing next year, that is his choice and he is obviously choosing to play. I honestly don't know how I would approach it as a parent. Probably would be torn between wanting him to be able to play his one (and probably only) year of college ball and looking out for his long term career. I guess it would come down to finding a doctor I have total trust in and getting their advice on safe timeline to resume playing. Even if he rehabs for 2 years, there is still no guarantee that he won't get hurt when he returns.

 

[Steat]

I'm telling all of you this and please remember it. If Giles has a setback I guarantee you that K will do his best to get him back on the floor during the season. The kid is not even going to be game ready until December, if ever. On top of that, playing in a real game is not the same as practice. If Giles has another knee injury before the next NBA draft, no NBA team will touch him in the first round. History is not on Giles side. You can rattle off 7-10 NBA players that have had there careers cut short by knee injuries. Here you have a kid that has had significant knee issues before even playing one game in college. No way he should be playing for Duke this year. This falls back on Giles and his family. If the kid has another knee injury while playing for Duke next season, any complaints from the family will go on death ears. Dumb decisions often have negative consequences.

 

[DSouthr]

Obviously, we will have to wait and see what happens with Giles' knees. PG and his health is probably are 2 biggest concerns next year.

As for him not playing next year, that is his choice and he is obviously choosing to play. I honestly don't know how I would approach it as a parent. Probably would be torn between wanting him to be able to play his one (and probably only) year of college ball and looking out for his long term career. I guess it would come down to finding a doctor I have total trust in and getting their advice on safe timeline to resume playing. Even if he rehabs for 2 years, there is still no guarantee that he won't get hurt when he returns.

Lets say he spent this next yr before the draft working out and making sure those knees are as sound as they are going to get. At that point he would have 2 very clear and low risk options.

A) He could elect to play for duke for a season or 2 just to knock the rust off and show his ability to play at the college level. of course he could re-injure but I would think the risk of re-injury with more time to strengthen and make sure those knees are as sound as they will get would lessen the risk, it certainly would not increase it. If he is the same player as he was pre-injuries then he solidifies his lotto selection spot and maybe even as top pick. The risk of re-injury is still there but reduced from his playing this season, IMO.

B) Enter the draft and not play college ball. While his doing this would likely drop him to late lotto or maybe even just outside of it he will still be drafted very high in his first draft if he has not re-injured either knee and the likelyhood of him re-injuring either knee in strength training and conditioning I would suggest are at very least greatly reduced if not that risk eliminated.

Either way, if he remains re-injury free, he becomes a millionaire in the draft so the question becomes do you become a millionaire with artificially elevated risk, reduced risk, or eliminated risk? I don't mean to distort this in any way, I realize my saying this as a tar Heel fan can look as if I don't want the kid to play for duke. That is not what I am trying to do in this, to me this is a human question about a young man's choices. If he truely wants to play for duke that is fine by me, why not take the extra time to rehab and do all he can to reduce the risk of re-injury, and play a season for duke but just not the next season?

IMO you have to wonder because his initial knee injury was one thing but to come right back and another one occur just screams to me that he came back from the original one to quick and was compensating for the hurt wheel by over taxing the good one and now they are both damaged. I mean, he now has a history of this and that I would think should teach him a lesson in rushing this kind of thing. Just my opinion but I think if he does make a mistake it should be on the side of caution. if he re-injures either of those knees playing college ball next season, the NBA will run and hide from him, that is a multi-million dollar risk that IMO does not need to be taken.

 

[DevilBlue]

There's no right answer for this. If he comes back injury free then he made the right call. Injury...he should have waited. Unless somebody here is Giles doctor, trainer, mentor....nobody knows where he is health wise. If he comes back and gets injured people will say K pushed him back. Doesn't matter how he felt or his view. Curious if anyone can think of anyone who has done that though...taken an entire year off to avoid potential reinjury? As I said earlier, I've heard people discuss it with NCAA football(tho risk of injury is higher) I wonder if anybody has done it in basketball and what the outcome was.

 

[DevilBlue]

Also DSouthr to answer your questions about Jeffersons D. I think he can handle Bradley(much like he did well 2nd half when put on Kaminsky in 2015) I don't know that Jefferson would be able to bang with Meeks, but to be honest Meeks has to show more interest in going hard at the basket more for me to worry about this. Meeks will go hard and succeed once, then avoid any contact the next 3 times he gets the ball....

 

[DSouthr]

There's no right answer for this. If he comes back injury free then he made the right call. Injury...he should have waited. Unless somebody here is Giles doctor, trainer, mentor....nobody knows where he is health wise. If he comes back and gets injured people will say K pushed him back. Doesn't matter how he felt or his view. Curious if anyone can think of anyone who has done that though...taken an entire year off to avoid potential reinjury? As I said earlier, I've heard people discuss it with NCAA football(tho risk of injury is higher) I wonder if anybody has done it in basketball and what the outcome was.

No, I can't think of anyone but when was the last time we had a top 10 player (or top 50 for that matter) with 2 seperate knee injuries, one each to both knees, that required major surgery, and BOTH occurring within the last 2yrs?

 

[DevilBlue]

True. Like I said I doubt K or Roy or anyone can keep most of these kids from playing in their one year. I mean obviously for most NBA is most important but they all dream of cutting down the nets...

On the original topic. Interested in how you see UNC this year and how do you feel they match up with Duke at the 1-5 and bench(no need to debate which coach is better since nobody will concede that one...)

 

[aah555]

I do think this Giles conversation is a bit of a non-sequitor b/c there really is no chance that he'll sit out next year. But, if he did for the sake of argument, that would mean that health concerns would have kept him out for 3 of of the past 4 seasons of basketball -- and that nobody would have even seen him play in 2 years. I just don't buy that there's any team who's willing to invest even a top 20-25 pick (in a strong draft class) on a kid they've only seen play 1 season (his high school Jr. yr.) since he was a freshman in HS. Giles' stock is probably going to be adversely impacted by his health history even if he comes back and plays a great season. But his stock would completely plummet if he didn't come back and prove that he can still play. I guess you could argue that it's a safer path if his goal is to be the #25 pick and make 1.8 million over 3 years, but that route would necessarily cost him a good 12-15 million over the duration of the contract and would likely cost him all chances to secure endorsements out of college -- which would surely follow him if he were a top 5 pick coming out of Duke. Nothing is a guarantee in life. But, in the end of the day, it's crazy to give up the chance at ~25-30 million in his first 3 years out of college for the possible guarantee of 1.8 million if one team at the end of the first round feels like taking a gamble. Particularly considering that even if he did get hurt again, I have to think there's going to be some rebuilding team with a ton of cap space that would still be willing to give him a $1-2 million (ala the Sixers) as a FA just to rehab to see if ever gets healthy -- b/c a lot of these low-end teams have a ton of cap space that they want to use on projects.

 

[DSouthr]

True. Like I said I doubt K or Roy or anyone can keep most of these kids from playing in their one year. I mean obviously for most NBA is most important but they all dream of cutting down the nets...

On the original topic. Interested in how you see UNC this year and how do you feel they match up with Duke at the 1-5 and bench(no need to debate which coach is better since nobody will concede that one...)

I will be glad to and will try to break it down stronger but need to give that a lil thought. Off the cuff, I do think it will be a heck of a match up between the 2 teams, helps us a ton if Jackson does come back because I liked the rotation when we went small this past season with Theo and Justin in together, seemed to me to be our most effective rotation.

I do see us 1 & 2 in the ACC next season, if pressed I would give your dukies the slight edge and realize that duke fans give a much stronger edge to duke. But I do think the teams will be closer, you guys have a talent edge with your starters and I think our bench is deeper. We have a strong experience edge that I don't think anyone could argue about.

I do think both teams have question marks right now, have discussed dukes question marks IMO. Our question marks as I see them are:

1) Can Hicks cut down on those fouls, can he get 30mins a game. He didn't this season because of foul frenquency.

2) What version of Meeks will we get, have seem glimpses of a very talented player but he just finished his Jr season and has to an extent under whelmed rather than progress. Can Meeks show off a mid range jump shooting game out to 20ft and get his motor reved up?

3) How ready will Tony Bradley to come in and produce early, can he justify 25mins a game of solid playing time? Can Tony be the guy that settles in the middle of those zones and hit that step inside the foul line jumper that Brice feasted on this past season?

4) Who steps up to play beside Joel berry as our 2 guard and gives us reliable jump shooting, we have 3 great canidates for just that but who steps above the rest? I personally think Kenny Williams will emerge as that guy but think it will start out with nate.

5) Can Theo solidify his jump shooting in his first opportunity to work on his game during the off season. He could not last season because he was recovering from season ending surgery and spent his first off season with us in recovery and rehab. This is especially important if Justin stays in the draft IMO. Tag on this is huge, does Justin come back.

6) What do we get from 7th Woods & B-Robinson, I am especially interested in BRob, kid hit > 50% of his treys last season and took a lot of them. Can 7th handle some back up PG duty or is he exclusive 2. How do we play BRob if Justin comes back and he & Theo dominate the 3 spot?

7) How much improvement will we see from individual players, we are used to watching our players get much better over time, does Hicks or Meeks have higher levels, do Nate & Joel have an even higher level. WE have a lot of scoring to make up for losing Marcus & Brice.

8) of course can we stay injury free, at least to our key players.

9) Can we continue the great foul shooting we saw last season?

I think if we get good answers to these questions we can be a final 4 level team, if not we should be at least sweet 16 good. I think UNC & duke will be 1 & 2 in the ACC, don't be surprised if UVa and FSU put some heat on us both.