I do think this Giles conversation is a bit of a non-sequitor b/c there really is no chance that he'll sit out next year. But, if he did for the sake of argument, that would mean that health concerns would have kept him out for 3 of of the past 4 seasons of basketball -- and that nobody would have even seen him play in 2 years. I just don't buy that there's any team who's willing to invest even a top 20-25 pick (in a strong draft class) on a kid they've only seen play 1 season (his high school Jr. yr.) since he was a freshman in HS. Giles' stock is probably going to be adversely impacted by his health history even if he comes back and plays a great season. But his stock would completely plummet if he didn't come back and prove that he can still play. I guess you could argue that it's a safer path if his goal is to be the #25 pick and make 1.8 million over 3 years, but that route would necessarily cost him a good 12-15 million over the duration of the contract and would likely cost him all chances to secure endorsements out of college -- which would surely follow him if he were a top 5 pick coming out of Duke. Nothing is a guarantee in life. But, in the end of the day, it's crazy to give up the chance at ~25-30 million in his first 3 years out of college for the possible guarantee of 1.8 million if one team at the end of the first round feels like taking a gamble. Particularly considering that even if he did get hurt again, I have to think there's going to be some rebuilding team with a ton of cap space that would still be willing to give him a $1-2 million (ala the Sixers) as a FA just to rehab to see if ever gets healthy -- b/c a lot of these low-end teams have a ton of cap space that they want to use on projects.
This much I do know, if he plays for duke next season and re-injures either of those knees, he is very likely out of a career as a player at the NBA or the euro level, he would at that point be the very definition of damaged goods.
I know you may not believe me when I say this but I would like to see the kid not just be able to play but be able to play at his best and do so for your dukies next season and that season see him not get hurt at all. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see him lose every single game he plays in but I do not want to see such a talented young man's very promising career cut short due to cronic knee injuries before he is even old enough to buy a beer legally. I don't want or wish for harm to come to anyone but certainly not for such a young kid with such a promising future.
Truth is I would prefer to see UNC and duke play each other with no excuses for the out come, none of that if my Tar Heels had this guy we would have won or if your dukies did not have that injury to that kid your dukies would have won. I hate the woulda shoulda and coulda's. Play straight best on best with no excuses and let the best team win and I can take it if we win or lose if that is how it is played out.