ADVERTISEMENT

Experts and their star rating ability?

Notice who is 90 on the list, kid blew up and became a pretty good player.
Stars indeed.
 
I've always thought the star system and rankings in general were somewhat overrated. It should be taken into account, but that shouldn't be the only thing that you look at. Obviously a 5 star kid is more likely to be great as opposed to a one star kid, but how big of a difference is there between a 5 star and a 4 star?
 
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2012/order/true

This is the top 100 list going in to their freshman seasons of kids that were or would have been seniors this past season. Everyone loves to argue this guy was a 5star blah blah blah. Notice who is 98 on this list and then talk to me about how many stars one team has over another...

Well a lot of those 5 star players listed had better freshman years than Denzel so in terms of who is better at that time, it looks like the stars system works.

CC
 
Better freshman seasons maybe but you have to look further than just points, you have to see what is there that can be developed. Some kids find their jump shot at different times, some early and some late, you have to notice if the kid has the raw tools than can bloom or is he doing now most of what you will see later.

Where is take issue is those folks that want to argue we have more star ratings than you and to me it is just a nonsense argument. I don't care how many stars a kid has, I care if he can play at our level.
 
Here's some interesting names and rank .................................

Terry Rozier ........................... 74th
Codi-Miller-McIntyre ............... 80th
Mike Tobey ............................. 81st
MONTREZL HARRELL ........... 90th
Blossomgame ......................... 95th

No way we would EVER want any of those guys. :p
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ozheelfan
Better freshman seasons maybe but you have to look further than just points, you have to see what is there that can be developed. Some kids find their jump shot at different times, some early and some late, you have to notice if the kid has the raw tools than can bloom or is he doing now most of what you will see later.

Where is take issue is those folks that want to argue we have more star ratings than you and to me it is just a nonsense argument. I don't care how many stars a kid has, I care if he can play at our level.
It's quite subjective as you know... and at times political. Nothing against the humans doing the ratings, but that's what they are --- humans. Thus some analysts lean to certain types of players, body-types, etc... some lean to their perceived NBA potential, and frankly some get taken in by the bluster and flash some kids like to bring to AAU. What sometimes gets lost is the ability to play the game of basketball in a team setting. There are also uncontrollable factors that some kids physically mature faster, and some of those max out earlier as well and never get much better.

On one hand basketball players get more evaluation these days then say, football players, because they're always playing --- so there are relatively fewer "busts" at the next level than in football. On the other hand, AAU/PrepSchioil basketball has become a marketplace as much as a forum for the game, so a lot of really good players get lost in the mix.
 
Here's some interesting names and rank .................................

Terry Rozier ........................... 74th
Codi-Miller-McIntyre ............... 80th
Mike Tobey ............................. 81st
MONTREZL HARRELL ........... 90th
Blossomgame ......................... 95th

No way we would EVER want any of those guys. :p
How about #25.... Glad Roy got #34 instead!
 
It's not really fair to compare 4 year players to 1 and dones btw. Like Shabazz, yeah, he was kind of trash, but he had one year in comparison to say Blossomgame's 4.
 
And how is his NBA career going to date, still can't believe some folks drooled over Shabazz or Rose...one was overrated and one was a boarder line hood. Goes under why we pass on some kids.

Once a kid has UNC or dook or KU or UK after them then they rise a star or two, undeserved more often than not.
 
And how is his NBA career going to date, still can't believe some folks drooled over Shabazz or Rose...one was overrated and one was a boarder line hood. Goes under why we pass on some kids.

Once a kid has UNC or dook or KU or UK after them then they rise a star or two, undeserved more often than not.
Like I said. That is unfair. You are comparing what someone did in college after 4 years to what someone is doing in the nba. The NBA is 100x harder than college.
 
  • Like
Reactions: superstar57
Agree with DSOUTH and I know I touched on it in another thread. You gotta use your eyes folks. Maybe they need to re evaluate the rating system. Again, the example I always use is a guy like Kyrie Irving pg to Greg Paulus pg. both 5 stars. However, the difference in talent is and has ALWAYS been immense. There was no time in either's respective career high school or college where the talent level could even be confused. It's almost blasphemy to compare a guy like Okafor to a plumlee etc but yet they are rated similar.
 
Better freshman seasons maybe but you have to look further than just points, you have to see what is there that can be developed. Some kids find their jump shot at different times, some early and some late, you have to notice if the kid has the raw tools than can bloom or is he doing now most of what you will see later.

Where is take issue is those folks that want to argue we have more star ratings than you and to me it is just a nonsense argument. I don't care how many stars a kid has, I care if he can play at our level.

Star ratings are only useful at the time they are last updated. 5-start kids have a better chance to make an impact as Freshmen. That's the number one thing that the ratings predict. The older those ratings are the less useful they become. It doesn't mean that kids without 5 starts will not develop into better players down the road and it doesn't mean your 5 star freshman is going to be better than my 4 star senior.

CC
 
Agree with DSOUTH and I know I touched on it in another thread. You gotta use your eyes folks. Maybe they need to re evaluate the rating system. Again, the example I always use is a guy like Kyrie Irving pg to Greg Paulus pg. both 5 stars. However, the difference in talent is and has ALWAYS been immense. There was no time in either's respective career high school or college where the talent level could even be confused. It's almost blasphemy to compare a guy like Okafor to a plumlee etc but yet they are rated similar.

tru cane and gary, replying to both because you both kinda on a similar page on this as I am. I kinda feel like so much of evaluations of kids is based on how many points do they score, do they wow ya with amazing dunks that rattle the rims, how much FLASH do they show off. And while yes it does take talent to do those things, I never dispute a kid being in the top 20 is not a talented kid.

But I more want to see how a kid moves, how well a kid runs, how solid is he catching the ball and turning or does he fumble it? How often does a kid go in to attack mode, not talking about putting up volume of shots in a All Star game, not talking about 20pts from 20 shots, talking about does he attack on the offensive and defensive ends, does he play thru contact, does he lock down like a dawg with a bone on defense, does he play with passion. Theo put up shots in HS, jump shots that went in but you could easy see he was a poor jump shooter because his mechanics where poor. But I see in him the ability to actually be a solid jump shooter because he has a shooters feel, pretty much all he shot on last season was feel. You see him at the free throw line, it is all feel but it goes in well,l if he can learn mechanics IMO he can be a deadly jump shooter, you can learn mechanics, feel you have to just have as a part of you.

What I am saying is I don't look at the results of games to decide if a kid can play or not, I look at how they move, how they react, what do they have that is already instinct and what is mechanical to my view. I don't care if a kid can every now & then complete a sports center highlite pass for example, I care if the majority of his passes go to guy in position to finish in that comfort zone. Joel Berry for example, not flashy IMO, was not in high school, he made more simple passes, not the high lite reel stuff but his passes were easy for a big man to catch and his pass tended to be in a spot that his big man could catch and finish in a single movement.

Example, a kid I think will absolutely blow up in college and could end up being the best kid to play college ball as a frosh next season could be the Ball kid committed to UCLA. That kid to me is fantastic, absolutely fantastic as a floor general and passer supreme. Folks saw him in the Micky D but you put that kid in a regular season game after a few weeks of getting to know his team mates and not the nonsense of the Micky D show boating, he will really be special.
 
Seems to me the kids are only ranked against other kids from that year. Not previous years. A 5 star in this class might be a 4 star last year. Who knows. But its obvious that the elite programs dont give a rats ass about these rankings and do their own homework anyway. It just makes for good conversation among fan bases and radio shows.
 
Yeah david, that Ball kid committed to UCLA early, real early. And I agree with all above...gives folks something to discuss.
 
There are LOTS of different ways to look at this.

Unfortunately, we don't have any easy way to compare that top 100 with their ranking today. But we can get some hints.

How many of theses guys were still playing in college as seniors? I don't recognize all the names, but my guess is that if you compare the top 10 with the bottom 10, you'd probably find more in the top 10 who went pro early, and more in the bottom 10 still in college or maybe even not playing any more. Probably the same if you compare the top 25 with the bottom 25. And so on.

That is a pretty crude measure, of course. If ranking lists deserve respect, they will have to perform better than that. But that's one way to start.

You can also turn to recent lists to follow the progress of those who stayed in school. For example, here's a list of this year's top seniors:

http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/NCAA-Seniors/

Maybe the easiest way to start answering the question is to pick a team. If I pick a team from the top 20 and you pick a team from the next 20, who is more likely to have the better team? There will of course be some players in the 2nd 20 who are better than players in the top 20, on average, probably not that many. But most years, the guy picking form the top 20 will end up with the best team. At leat that's my guess.

It would be fun for someone interested in bball and studying statistics to run an analysis. I doubt even the most skeptical person here would rather draw names out of a hat than pick names from ESPN's top 100. But what's the error margin and variance?
 
We should also be up front about reasons why players improve (or don't).

Some kids grow, some don't.

Some are injured.

Some have other issues.

Some end up learning from a good coach - either good generally or good for what they need to learn.

Some find themselves on a team that is good for their style of play or a team where they can play a lot of minutes. Some get shunted behind a OAD or are forced to play out of position.

Valentine may be an example. I never followed him but I think he grew. And most of us think his coach is one of the better ones. Would he have done so well if he had gone to NC State? Maybe, but I'm not taking that bet.
 
Here are some interesting numbers from the NCAA.

mbb_0.jpg


Similar graphics for other sports here:

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/probability-competing-beyond-high-school
 
Only 1.2% WOW! Had no idea it was that low.
I know. When you think about it it makes sense, but still....

All these HS kids thinking they could be OAD despite odds like that. They not only think they are going to be in the 1.2% of the 3.4% but they think they are going to be one of the very best of that minuscule percentage. And they are probably surrounded by people telling them that.

That first number - half a million HS players - makes the task of picking and ranking the best ones look pretty daunting. A ranker can't possibly get around to see all of them - much less see them a few times to get a good feel for their game.

I wonder how many of the rankings we see are based mostly or entirely on word of mouth and YouTube highlights?

OTOH, with the ubiquity of those YouTube clips, I wonder if rankings have improved? It may not be as good as watching in person, but it's more data to base a ranking on.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT