History look at this 2017 class...

[DSouthr]

I was just flippin thru an old copy of the 2014-15 Lindy's pre-season mag and I could not help but notice their top 25 soph rankings (what we now know as this 2017 class).

The top 10 in order are:

1) Ayton
2) Vanderbilt
3) Tyshon Alexander
4) Ira Lee
5) DJ Harvey
6) Michael Porter
7) Paul Scruggs
8) Cody Riley
9) Troy Brown
10) Brian Bowen

Others of interest in top 25: 11) Billy Preston, 12) Duval, 13) Zack Brown 21) Keith Wilkes, 22) Quade Green.

What is interesting is who is NOT in their top 25 back when this mag came out. No Bamba, no Wendal Carter, no Kevin Knox, no PJ Washington, no Hammy Diello, no Jaylek, no McCoy...

I think this is interesting, a while back we had a thread on 2019 recruiting and that would be similar to what 2017 looked like when this mag originally came out. Just shows ya how things change over time.

 

[Tom79]

Speaking of sophomores, I betcha that kid in Minn, class of '19, continues to get better and is a monster when he gets to CH.
I'd say about 6 of those kids dropped a spot or three in the past two years, yeah David, so much for the "experts".

 

[keysersosay#1]

Good stuff

 

[DSouthr]

Yeah, it is what I have been trying to say when it comes to rankings, things change and when history looks back what things used to look like look very different, even if those sharing those looks in the past were experts.

 

[Tom79]

And it continues for some of the kids, they commit to a school with some "stars" and then never continue to develop.

 

[DSouthr]

And it continues for some of the kids, they commit to a school with some "stars" and then never continue to develop.

The thing is some kids get growth spurts that really effect their game and some kids just develop slower than others, the light just comes on at different times. I mean who cared about Ingram when he was a 6'2" PG but at 6'9" he is a totally different player, Anthony Davis and John Henson went from being PGs with little to no pop to being big time front court guys due to growth spurts.

Leaky Black right now is 6'7" and could (according to his doctors) end up 6'9-10" by the time he gets to us.

 

[shun1]

!!!!!!!!!!!! SMILE !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Yeah, it is what I have been trying to say when it comes to rankings, things change and when history looks back what things used to look like look very different, even if those sharing those looks in the past were experts.

When we have those conversations, we probably need to pay more attention to "bad rankings" that are a result of development as opposed to bad rankings because the rankers aren't doing a good job. Seems obvious to me that you have to allow for changes due to development that weren't foreseen - and that's true at almost any age in the HS to college age range. Even sophs and juniors in college can have big developmental surges, although less likely that for HS kids.

The other thing that the OP makes clear is that you have to be a really good talent spotter to start recruiting kids in 10th grade or earlier. Otherwise you waste a whole lot of time.

One of the changes that got some discussion in another thread was that Roy used to be able to focus pretty much on players whom everyone agreed were really good. He didn't have to be great at spotting those diamonds in the rough, because he could always get several top players. As I pointed out at the time, Roy had never had a recruiting class without at least 1 5-star player until 2012. Then again in 2015. For a while 2016 looked the same, but then Tony moved into 5-star territory. And so far 2017 and 2018 are iffy.

As you and I have pointed out, this has an upside. Roy used to be dinged as a coach who couldn't win at the top levels without top talent. You don't hear that so much any more.

 

[DSouthr]

When we have those conversations, we probably need to pay more attention to "bad rankings" that are a result of development as opposed to bad rankings because the rankers aren't doing a good job. Seems obvious to me that you have to allow for changes due to development that weren't foreseen - and that's true at almost any age in the HS to college age range. Even sophs and juniors in college can have big developmental surges, although less likely that for HS kids.

The other thing that the OP makes clear is that you have to be a really good talent spotter to start recruiting kids in 10th grade or earlier. Otherwise you waste a whole lot of time.

One of the changes that got some discussion in another thread was that Roy used to be able to focus pretty much on players whom everyone agreed were really good. He didn't have to be great at spotting those diamonds in the rough, because he could always get several top players. As I pointed out at the time, Roy had never had a recruiting class without at least 1 5-star player until 2012. Then again in 2015. For a while 2016 looked the same, but then Tony moved into 5-star territory. And so far 2017 and 2018 are iffy.

As you and I have pointed out, this has an upside. Roy used to be dinged as a coach who couldn't win at the top levels without top talent. You don't hear that so much any more.

As has been noted many times, if talent development were linear then 7th Woods would have been the number 1 ranked player in his class. You see a kid as a freshman and truth is rarely do you really know what he will become. I mean, you see that 6'9" HS freshman that seems to move fluidly and is coordinated and you know there is something there you may need to keep an eye on. But ya know how kids are, they don't all gain their coordination at the same time nor do they all go thru growth spurts at the same time. A lot of the development you see from a kid from freshman to sr in high school is getting his body under control and growth spurts over. Sometimes it is easy to see those things early and sometimes they can not be seen till relatively late.

 

[trestyles]

Yeah, it is what I have been trying to say when it comes to rankings, things change and when history looks back what things used to look like look very different, even if those sharing those looks in the past were experts.

Yep. Not to knock our kids but as a Soph, Jp was top 10 ranked. Also believe Nate was 2nd ranked PG.

 

[alabamaheel]

Speaking of sophomores, I betcha that kid in Minn, class of '19, continues to get better and is a monster when he gets to CH.
I'd say about 6 of those kids dropped a spot or three in the past two years, yeah David, so much for the "experts".

Tom are you talking about Hurt? If so are you being optimistic or did I miss something. Lol I don't mind either one.

 

[HeelFan58]

#33 class in the nation per Rivals.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/rivals-2017-basketball-team-rankings-update

#17 per Scout but I guess I better not post that list.

 

[imajericho]

It honestly does not make sense how we are 33 on that list if you look above us on that list.

 

[dadika13]

Speaking of sophomores, I betcha that kid in Minn, class of '19, continues to get better and is a monster when he gets to CH.
I'd say about 6 of those kids dropped a spot or three in the past two years, yeah David, so much for the "experts".

Matthew Hurt. He's special.

 

[DSouthr]

#33 class in the nation per Rivals.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/rivals-2017-basketball-team-rankings-update

#17 per Scout but I guess I better not post that list.

Point I wanted to make with this thread is how history looks back and things look different than they do in the now. I do strongly believe that when history looks back at this 2017 UNC class it will be seen as being much better than the 33rd class in the country.

 

[Bur-Heel]

This doesn't help either!!https://basketballrecruiting.rivals...-prediction-time-where-top-2018-stars-will-go

 

[dadika13]

This doesn't help either!!https://basketballrecruiting.rivals...-prediction-time-where-top-2018-stars-will-go

I wonder how many they got right from 2017 this time a year ago...

 

[HeelFan58]

This doesn't help either!!https://basketballrecruiting.rivals...-prediction-time-where-top-2018-stars-will-go

Have we even offered anybody besides Williamson?

 

[Bur-Heel]

Have we even offered anybody besides Williamson?

I don't think it even matters!!

 

[Ozheelfan]

Have we even offered anybody besides Williamson?

Yup, Black and White and they're both already on board.

 

[HeelFan58]

Yup, Black and White and they're both already on board.

I meant that haven't committed.

 

[Ozheelfan]

I meant that haven't committed.

Yeah, I was being cute... I reckon Roy isn't under as much pressure to fill spots for '18 atm with those two already committed.

 

[HeelFan58]

Yeah, I was being cute... I reckon Roy isn't under as much pressure to fill spots for '18 atm with those two already committed.

Langford and Hamilton also have offers according to most sites
.

 

[HeelFan58]

ESPN says Texas is the leader for Bamba.