How do we match up with Nova?
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I assume Kris Jenkins which is a mismatch on both ends. He'll struggle to guard Brice in the paint but then Johnson will have to be able to guard Jenkins on the perimeter who is a very good 3 point shooter. Should be a great matchup
Ochefu ,who IIRC ,WE tried to recruit, is obviously their main guy in the post. I assume we will attack him... and I am curious as to who is their other BIG or BIGS they can bring in to spell Ochefu. I see Roy just doing his usual thing and pounding inside with Brice ,Hicks and KM getting the ball and putting all kinds of pressure on Ochefu and their interior d.
They ARE good no doubt but we can and should exploit their inside. I heard Greenberg today and he believes they will press us and attack our guards. We shall see
They ARE good no doubt but we can and should exploit their inside. I heard Greenberg today and he believes they will press us and attack our guards. We shall see
I like Ochefu but doubt he guards Brice. He will start on Meeks and Wright will try and avoid him having to match up with Brice or Hicks IMO.
They won't press IMO. They will throw some halfcourt pressure and stuff like that but won't press. Wright isn't dumb.
They won't press IMO. They will throw some halfcourt pressure and stuff like that but won't press. Wright isn't dumb.
Stylistically, they slow the game down. They've played 63, 65, 59 possession games the last 3 games.
Nova will always have 3 guards. They'll usually play an undersized 4. There are only 2 guys on their team that can't shoot 3's.
I think they'll token press. Some 2-2-1 to slow the game down. They'll play some zone. My guess is we'll have an advantage on the offensive glass so they'll play more man.
They're really good at not fouling. Ochefu is somewhat prone to foul trouble but other than that no one who plays 25+ min is really foul prone.
Going to need to box out Josh Hart. He's probably the best rebounding guard in the country.
I think the game will come down to if Nova hits 2 point jump shots. Seemingly they haven't missed this entire tournament. If Nova is hitting their perimeter shots, they probably win. If they don't we probably do.
Hopefully they left their best game behind against OU. Hopefully we still have one more level to reach because we didn't play our best against Cuse or Notre Dame.
Nova will always have 3 guards. They'll usually play an undersized 4. There are only 2 guys on their team that can't shoot 3's.
I think they'll token press. Some 2-2-1 to slow the game down. They'll play some zone. My guess is we'll have an advantage on the offensive glass so they'll play more man.
They're really good at not fouling. Ochefu is somewhat prone to foul trouble but other than that no one who plays 25+ min is really foul prone.
Going to need to box out Josh Hart. He's probably the best rebounding guard in the country.
I think the game will come down to if Nova hits 2 point jump shots. Seemingly they haven't missed this entire tournament. If Nova is hitting their perimeter shots, they probably win. If they don't we probably do.
Hopefully they left their best game behind against OU. Hopefully we still have one more level to reach because we didn't play our best against Cuse or Notre Dame.
It's HARD (read REALLY hard) playing conference teams in the tournament. They've had the chance to gameplan and adjust to you at least once already. Carolina is going to do what they've done all tournament and that's feeding the paint. If Carolina plays the defense that they found in the ACC Tournament and continued through the Indiana Sweet 16 matchups, I REALLY like the Heels' chances tonight.
First off, Brice & Hicks have to stay out of foul trouble, major key IMO because other than Uchie they do not have anyone that can handle their size when we get in to attack mode with our big men. Uchie looked to me like he had a really bad ankle so I am not sure how quickly he can move his feet to check either Brice or Hicks and he will have to a lot.
I think we will do something that OU just didn't seem all that interested in doing, we will guard them hard with our guards, they may still hit some shots but they will mostly be contested if they do. We will at times go to our version of small ball with our 2 wings on the floor together and that allows us to switch off defensive assignments easier, takes away their ability to step outside their under sized 4 and we tend to rebound in space better from this look (the long rebounds).
I think our quickness, especially at the guard positions will make it hard on nova, their guards are not overly quick or really long. Don't see them blowing by our guards, they will have to screen open their guards and popping off the screen to a good shot in that dome is not the same as in a more normal venue.
With our size we should own the defensive glass, important that we do not give them second chances at those long jump shots but rebound them and force them to take the shot and sprint back down in to defensive position rather than crashing the boards with their guards. You do that by defensive rebounding and getting out in the running game.
It is going to be hard for them to resist trying to run with us, when you are the smaller team you tend to want to get out in transition, they love to transition and take the rythem trey as opposed to working for the lay up or close in finish, got to watch out for that, they will spot a guy up for that trey. I suspect they will fall in to trying to run with us and no other team has been able to make that work all season.
Nova is going to have to shoot red hot from multiple shooters and that is not going to be as easy as it was vs OU and shooting 50% of your treys at that dome isn't easy unguarded unless you allow guys to settle in and shoot themselves hot with token defense and that is what they got vs OU.
I am not betting we jump shoot like we did prior to Houston but we will hit some, our shooters are to good to miss everything and especially after not jump shooting well vs the longer zones that Syracuse threw at us. Which is another good example of how hard it is to shoot with a hand in your face, we had hands in our faces vs Syracuse from their longer guards.
I think we will do something that OU just didn't seem all that interested in doing, we will guard them hard with our guards, they may still hit some shots but they will mostly be contested if they do. We will at times go to our version of small ball with our 2 wings on the floor together and that allows us to switch off defensive assignments easier, takes away their ability to step outside their under sized 4 and we tend to rebound in space better from this look (the long rebounds).
I think our quickness, especially at the guard positions will make it hard on nova, their guards are not overly quick or really long. Don't see them blowing by our guards, they will have to screen open their guards and popping off the screen to a good shot in that dome is not the same as in a more normal venue.
With our size we should own the defensive glass, important that we do not give them second chances at those long jump shots but rebound them and force them to take the shot and sprint back down in to defensive position rather than crashing the boards with their guards. You do that by defensive rebounding and getting out in the running game.
It is going to be hard for them to resist trying to run with us, when you are the smaller team you tend to want to get out in transition, they love to transition and take the rythem trey as opposed to working for the lay up or close in finish, got to watch out for that, they will spot a guy up for that trey. I suspect they will fall in to trying to run with us and no other team has been able to make that work all season.
Nova is going to have to shoot red hot from multiple shooters and that is not going to be as easy as it was vs OU and shooting 50% of your treys at that dome isn't easy unguarded unless you allow guys to settle in and shoot themselves hot with token defense and that is what they got vs OU.
I am not betting we jump shoot like we did prior to Houston but we will hit some, our shooters are to good to miss everything and especially after not jump shooting well vs the longer zones that Syracuse threw at us. Which is another good example of how hard it is to shoot with a hand in your face, we had hands in our faces vs Syracuse from their longer guards.
All of a sudden the media is saying we're not tough enough, that Villanova will be a matchup night mare etc. What I say is if they allow us to get 19 offensive rebounds we win the game. They can't hang with us in the paint and I'm sure we'll hit a few 3's but I don't see them making 70% of thier shots again. Villanova has never played a team with the length and athleticism like UNC. I won't be surprised if we win by double digits but I'm expecting a close game.
Yes DSPN is picking the Wildcats. If Carolina wins we will not even have top billing on SportsCenter. Maybe Opening Day part 2, UCONN women's coverage, the Masters and oh yea, UNC just won the national championship.
GOOD, I hope they keep us as the under dawgs, a lil extra motivation never hurts!
First of all, I'm a Heel tonight. The title needs to be in the best bball conference. So good luck tonight.
Nova has been shooting lights out. They slow the game down and have great ball movement. That ball movement really creates the shots for their guys who are deadly accurate, and they don't need much space. But Williams is no fool, don't think he will let nova dictate the game flow. You guys are clearly the best around but can't let nova shoot in the 60%s, that is really hard to stop. hell, their 3pt % was better against us then their overall fg%.
Again, good luck, I will be wearing blue tonight.
Nova has been shooting lights out. They slow the game down and have great ball movement. That ball movement really creates the shots for their guys who are deadly accurate, and they don't need much space. But Williams is no fool, don't think he will let nova dictate the game flow. You guys are clearly the best around but can't let nova shoot in the 60%s, that is really hard to stop. hell, their 3pt % was better against us then their overall fg%.
Again, good luck, I will be wearing blue tonight.
They will zone us a ton.
I think we need to trap a little more than usual to speed it up and force their bigs to move around on offense.
If they shoot 70% again this obviously means nothing, but we're a much better defensive team than Oklahoma.
I think we need to trap a little more than usual to speed it up and force their bigs to move around on offense.
If they shoot 70% again this obviously means nothing, but we're a much better defensive team than Oklahoma.
Good...let them keep doubting the Heels. The people that REALLY know how to pick games (VEGAS) opened with UNC at -1.5 and it has since grown to -2.5.
First the bad news....
According to Pomeroy's numbers, the only better defensive teams we've faced were Louisville and Virginia, ranked #2 and #5, respectively. Villanova comes in at #6. We went 1-2 against Louisville and UVa.
Again per Pomeroy, Nova is the best offensive team we've faced, second only to us in the nation.
Nova is a deliberate team, ranking #284 on tempo. We have played at least 8 teams who play even slower than that, so we are used to it. But 3 of our losses came to those teams (UVa, Texas, Notre Dame). So it's a concern.
While Uchefu is the only big who stands out on their roster, they have 2 other guys who seem to do pretty well up there. 6'8 Darryl Reynolds and frosh star 6'7 Mikal Bridges combine for 37 minutes and post a combined 10 pts and 8 rebounds. Both are good blockers, too.
Arcidiacono and Brunson are 6'3 and 6'2, respectively. So we give up size in the backcourt.
They have 4 solid 3-pt shooters. At least 3 of them are usually on the floor together.
The good news...
While we are rated lower on defense (#23 to Nova's #6), most of us would probably agree that we have stepped up the defense recently. So it's probably closer than that. And they have struggled against good defensive teams, too - losing to UVa, Seaton Hall and Xavier.
The height we give up in the back court we gain back up front. Justin has 3 inches on Hart, or 2 on Jenkins, depending on who matches up with whom. Brice is 2-4 inches taller than anyone who is likely to be guarding him. And of course, we have depth up front.
We know we can go to small ball if we need to, but I'm hoping we don't need to - because then our lack of backcourt size isn't compensated for by our frontcourt size. But we can do it if it makes sense. Whereas I don't think Nova has anything like our flexibility.
According to Pomeroy's numbers, the only better defensive teams we've faced were Louisville and Virginia, ranked #2 and #5, respectively. Villanova comes in at #6. We went 1-2 against Louisville and UVa.
Again per Pomeroy, Nova is the best offensive team we've faced, second only to us in the nation.
Nova is a deliberate team, ranking #284 on tempo. We have played at least 8 teams who play even slower than that, so we are used to it. But 3 of our losses came to those teams (UVa, Texas, Notre Dame). So it's a concern.
While Uchefu is the only big who stands out on their roster, they have 2 other guys who seem to do pretty well up there. 6'8 Darryl Reynolds and frosh star 6'7 Mikal Bridges combine for 37 minutes and post a combined 10 pts and 8 rebounds. Both are good blockers, too.
Arcidiacono and Brunson are 6'3 and 6'2, respectively. So we give up size in the backcourt.
They have 4 solid 3-pt shooters. At least 3 of them are usually on the floor together.
The good news...
While we are rated lower on defense (#23 to Nova's #6), most of us would probably agree that we have stepped up the defense recently. So it's probably closer than that. And they have struggled against good defensive teams, too - losing to UVa, Seaton Hall and Xavier.
The height we give up in the back court we gain back up front. Justin has 3 inches on Hart, or 2 on Jenkins, depending on who matches up with whom. Brice is 2-4 inches taller than anyone who is likely to be guarding him. And of course, we have depth up front.
We know we can go to small ball if we need to, but I'm hoping we don't need to - because then our lack of backcourt size isn't compensated for by our frontcourt size. But we can do it if it makes sense. Whereas I don't think Nova has anything like our flexibility.
I think it will be really important for Theo to be on his best game tonight. Unless we establish dominance inside, I suspect we'll need him to contain either Jenkins or Hart.
One matchup that should be interesting is Berry vs Arcidianoco. Berry gives up 3 inches, but he's tough. But so is Arcidianoco. If Berry struggles against Arcidianoco, who do we use? If the front court doesn't need him, I assume that's more minutes for Theo. So, again, Theo could be really important for us tonight.
One matchup that should be interesting is Berry vs Arcidianoco. Berry gives up 3 inches, but he's tough. But so is Arcidianoco. If Berry struggles against Arcidianoco, who do we use? If the front court doesn't need him, I assume that's more minutes for Theo. So, again, Theo could be really important for us tonight.
Same as we always do. They have a bunch of 2 guards running around the 3 point line, trying to find penetration lanes, surrounding a single power forward who tries to rebound and block shots.
We have a major advantage in size, even on the wings with Theo and Justin. If we keep them from spreading us out drawing fouls the way ND and Duke did in the regular season, we win by 10+.
The good thing for us is we have seen this small ball crap from several teams this season, and have defeated it.
We have a major advantage in size, even on the wings with Theo and Justin. If we keep them from spreading us out drawing fouls the way ND and Duke did in the regular season, we win by 10+.
The good thing for us is we have seen this small ball crap from several teams this season, and have defeated it.
We have people to guard their best players. OU did not. Team-D and tempo are the keys.
WWJD, look at all your comparisons to teams we lost to.
We lost at THEIR places not on mutual courts. BIG DIFFERENCE.
We lost at THEIR places not on mutual courts. BIG DIFFERENCE.
They lost at UVA as well, no shame in that. UVA made some big 3s in the second half of that game, if we can just make enough 3s, the inside game should take care of itself....it's really a coin toss but we have a coach who has been here before and a lot of veteran leadership.
I will be polite here, the refs did not call the game evenly at either Louisville or Virginia.
Big yawn on Pomeroy stuff. Their backcourt is not as big as many we're used to guarding (non-issue) and our perimeter guys play actual defense with rim protection behind them when we're on point in our Help-D. It's the usual challenge presented by 1-in-4-out perimeter teams, and it's a bunch that are playing at the top of their game right now. OU didn't play a lick of D against them --- I'm assuming we'll offer a different scenario.
Attack on both ends, push tempo, finish thru contact (they contact a LOT) and hope for decent zebras
"...hope for decent zebras" Yeah you can say THAT again.... just call it evenly on BOTH sides PLEASE!!!
Gonna be a tight game no matter what. I am calling 75-72 UNC
How the game is officiated is going to be big for both teams.
How the game is officiated is going to be big for both teams.
And let them play - as long as it doesn't get dirty or dangerous.
Calling it tight may help us if we get Ochefu in foul trouble, but we don't need that to win, imo. And calling it tight makes it easier for bias and BS calls to determine the outcome.
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Yep. Just trying to paint the good and the bad. I like our chances.
I haven't watched enough of Nova to say that I can make the comparison in my mind. I'll have to wait for the game.
When you get to the championship game, I always want both teams to play well. I want to see great basketball. And I think we can win if we play well. We'll all know in about 8 hours.
Something to remember... the ONLY reason the reffing didn't bite us Saturday was that Cuse couldn't buy a FT (4/13), otherwise that one would've been a lot closer. We cannot afford another Mike Eades treatment.
I'm going to need some space grass for my nerves if the game is that close....hahaha!!
There is obviously an issue with him bringing it down. It's like my fingernail biting problem... LOL Seriously I scream that at him all the time. He eels to have to gather himself by dribbling at least once.
Well, Tom... just saw that another "Mike", (Stephens) might be reffing tonight. I don't like that one bit. Sumbitch was on the crew at Texas this season and had last year's final where the zebras totally bailed out dook. Our guys better be ready for bumper-car basketball.Come on Gary, you know you really like Mike!
I don't care if they call it tight or let them play just as long as they are consistent.
I like the Heels' chances tonight. Biggest key for me is continue to dominate the interior and rebound. Open looks will be at a premium against their defense, so high-percentage inside shots and tip-ins will be vital. Carolina wins almost every game accumulating points in the paint, and it has to be reinforced by Williams even more in this game. Can't get into foul trouble being too aggressive on the boards though.
When there is no double team coming in the low post, pump-fake and get to the line, or look for the inside dish. Don't settle for fadeaways. Possessions should be methodical. Smart entry passes that can't get picked off. There should be zero offensive possessions in the half-court where the ball is not passed into the low post. Passing back out to the perimter also has to be crisp because they will overplay the lanes constantly looking for the steal.
Berry will need to be aggressive, but equally careful driving to the rim. Their guards can strip and take charges very well. But more importantly Paige and Jackson have to be incredibly active getting open on kick-outs - and bury their shots when the defense helps inside.
The guards have to be patient and not take forced shots, especially from three. A 3 should simply not be taken unless it's a wide-open look. Again, work the ball inside constantly, crash the boards, but also watch out for their transition game, which is severely underrated and will be lethal if they get into a rhythm shooting threes.
And, Johnson has to have a massive game and stay out of foul trouble.
When there is no double team coming in the low post, pump-fake and get to the line, or look for the inside dish. Don't settle for fadeaways. Possessions should be methodical. Smart entry passes that can't get picked off. There should be zero offensive possessions in the half-court where the ball is not passed into the low post. Passing back out to the perimter also has to be crisp because they will overplay the lanes constantly looking for the steal.
Berry will need to be aggressive, but equally careful driving to the rim. Their guards can strip and take charges very well. But more importantly Paige and Jackson have to be incredibly active getting open on kick-outs - and bury their shots when the defense helps inside.
The guards have to be patient and not take forced shots, especially from three. A 3 should simply not be taken unless it's a wide-open look. Again, work the ball inside constantly, crash the boards, but also watch out for their transition game, which is severely underrated and will be lethal if they get into a rhythm shooting threes.
And, Johnson has to have a massive game and stay out of foul trouble.
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Nova is no slouch. UNC is the more gifted team but Nova plays well together especially defensively. Officials will be key how they call it tonight.
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