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How Much is a Shot "Worth"?

What Would Jesus Do?

Hall of Famer
Nov 28, 2010
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So far this season, for every shot we have taken, we have scored 1.317 points, on average. That reflects our overall 47.5% shooting from the field plus the added value of 3-pt shots and FTs. That's a tiny bit better than last season, when each shot was "worth" 1.293. That small difference translates into an extra point and a half per game, other things being equal.

For comparison purposes, here are a good year and a bad year (on a W-L basis):

2009 = 1.360
2010 = 1.203

That difference is worth about 10 points a game.

For fun, I looked at our last 10 games. Here's how much each shot earned us in those games.

Code:
Foe           Margin  Shot Value
@ Duke -       -8     1.27
vs ND -        +7     1.36
vs Pitt -      +2     1.38
@ Miami -     -15     1.03
vs Va Tech -  +19     1.25
@ BC -         +8     1.40
vs Syracuse - +17     1.25
vs FSU -      +13     1.32
@ Wake -       +6     1.45
vs NCSU -     +51     1.70

Not sure how useful this info is but I was curious and thought I'd share what I found.
 
For comparison purposes, here's what a shot is worth this year for a few other ACC teams and ranked teams of interest:

Gonzaga = 1.432
UCLA = 1.428
Villanova = 1.421
Duke = 1.400
FSU = 1.365
Kentucky = 1.359
Kansas = 1.357
Notre Dame = 1.322
UNC = 1.317
Virginia = 1.299
Wisconsin = 1.272
Louisville = 1.261
 
To answer the topic question, it is about 5 bucks around here, more if you prefer top shelf...LOL
 
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