I would love to hear some practice reports once he gets to chapel Hill. I think he supposed to have arrived within the last couple of days. I didn't see him in any of the shots of the team at the beach?
James Okonkwo Reportedly Will Visit North Carolina
- Thread starter andrew jones
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I think playing for Britain boosted his confidence. I believe he is an underrated player who is just coming into his own. He may get a little more PT than some think, especially since he can play both the four and five positions.
Yeah, if he does play the 4 it will not be much, his range looks to be all the way out to dunk, LOL. I don't see him playing any 4 with Bacot on the floor, maybe a minute or 2 with Jalen where the do some exchanging. I*t is really a stretch for me to see even that. He and Bacot in together crowds the lane and gives the defense a natural guy to double off of, Withers or Jalen are guys the defense are not going to want to pull off of to double Bacot down low.
He showed a nice short-range jump hook. And he has decent quickness. It will be interesting to see which way the coaches steer him.
In videos, he sometimes played around the perimeter and would then roll in to the basket.
And then, of course, there was the fun drive from the top of the key. Which he shouldn't be able to get away with in ACC play, but you never know.
The young man has plenty of room to develop and is the perfect place to get it! I played bball for 45 years without sharing the court with a single 4 man who could hit a 3 so the game can be played by a big that is mid-range in! I expect him to really jump with the confidence from FIBA and our staff teaching. 2 bigs don't clog the lane just by being bigs; the scheme can handle this. Bacot is awesome in a high/low and Okonkwo has shown the ability to pass and drive from the perimeter. BUT I do think he would be a great fit with the JWs and who cares who is called 4 or 5!
Problem with him out on the perimeter is that out there he becomes a dare him to shoot guy, the no brain guy to double off of, not so much different than Nance and Nance was much more a shooter. Now I absolutely did want to see NANCE play that way, start outside and cut inside hard using constant movement, which konkwo does have what looks like a really nice motor that I didn't often see in Nance.
I am not sure I see in what I have seen from him so far any refined offensive moves outside of the rebound stick back or the occasional lob. Yes, I have seen him make some other shots but I have not seen anything solid that I think translates to this level of play outside of the stick backs and dunks. I do think he has some instincts but has a lot of work to do, really needs to work on that jump hook, what I saw with that was basically a push shot from around his off shoulder, that is going to get blocked in ACC play. Now the kid will run the court and seems to have soft hands to catch and finish off a break op, Cadeua will find him for some easy finishes, important note, he does look like a quick leaper that can play over the rim.
His visit was scheduled for the 24th, which was Monday. The OBX trip was over the weekend. I haven't heard whether he even took his OV or not. But 2nd summer session is about to end, and everyone will be going home until fall semester starts.
Thank you.
Three-point shooting has become more important, but it isn't necessary. Especially for bigs, and sometimes not even for guards.
I'm thinking back to the 2012 season. Many may not recall that Dexter Strickland was our SG until he got injured. He couldn't hit a 3-pointer to save his life. But he shot 57% from 2-point range. And while he was a good driver, a lot of those were jumpers. He wound up the year with a TS% of 59.2 - ahead of everybody except Tyler Zeller. And when I say ahead of everybody, that includes Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, Reggie Bullock, John Henson, PJ Hairston and JM McAdoo.
I know this isn't the point of this thread, but our backcourt's inability to shoot and make 3's in 2011 and 2012 made our offenses somewhat limited those two seasons despite what the narrative around those teams were. In 2011-12, we had an offensive efficiency that was much closer to our 2021-22 full season (not just the final run) than our best teams. Despite Dexter shooting a high 2PT percentage, I think his inability to shoot 3's probably limited that offense.
2011-12:
Adj offensive efficiency when Dexter was healthy: 114.8
Adj offensive efficiency when Dexter was hurt: 115.4
2021-22:
Adj offensive efficiency : 114.4
Our Final Four team's (under Roy) worst adj offensive efficiency was 121.6. Not even on the same planet as 2012.
On the Okonkwo part... I hope he improves our offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, and rim protection. We have enough high volume 3-point shooters already. It's just a question of whether RJ, Ryan, Withers, Wojcik shoot a reasonably high percentage. If they don't, Okonkwo's role doesn't change into a 3PT shooter. It's more important for him to be a great offensive rebounder if we don't shoot it well.
There is a path to being an elite offense while shooting it poorly. In 2015-16, we had the top ranked offensive efficiency in the country despite shooting 32.7% from 3 for the season. The formula if you can't shoot it is fairly simple. You must offensive rebound at an elite level (40% offensive rebounding rate) and you can't turn the ball over.
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It appears Hubert is forcing the good shooting vs the good rebounding whereas Roy was the opposite. Personally, I will greatly miss being the most dominant rebounding program that we were under Roy. I just think that's such a meaningful style of play. Not only because of the second chance points but it's like the run game in the NFL. It shows a toughness. It's akin to consistently running the ball down the throats of the opponent. It's demoralizing and breaks the spirit of the opponent, which I greatly enjoy. The 3 ball doesn't have the same effect although I certainly recognize its effectiveness.
It was nice to be able to bank on offensive rebounding as a weapon under Roy. It didn't always mean we were going to contend for Final Fours, but it was nice to be able to rely on something. In Roy's last year, we were the number one offensive rebounding team in the country, but that team was basically a borderline NIT team.
I disagree that the 3 ball doesn't have the same demoralizing impact. I don't think there's anything more demoralizing than playing great defense on Steph Curry or Klay Thompson, but those guys still nailing 3's. I'm also not sure there's anything that has put more pressure on a defense in the history of basketball than Steph and Klay's peak shooting. We don't have Steph or Klay, but hopefully we'll have the 3 ball weapon here. It provides so much more room for error.
I'm also a Chicago Bears fan so I'm tired of trying run the ball down the throats and rely on special teams and defense. I want to chuck it downfield, lol. So we may haven't different stylistic approaches, haha.
Thankfully we had Reggie Bullock. Turned out to be darn good when he moved into the starting role. That happens sometimes.
You said "Three-point shooting has become more important, but it isn't necessary. Especially for bigs, and sometimes not even for guards."
Didn't we see enough last year? lol. You better be able to make some 3's. You don't need to be great, but it's absolutely necessary for your guards to make some 3's. Even that 2015-16 team when we almost won a National Championship despite being a woeful 3-point shooting team, we had 2 guards who shot a lot of 3's and made over 35% of them.
It's absolutely critical to have a couple of player who shoot a lot of 3's and make a fair share of them. You just have to look at our history with Roy. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry took over 6 3's/game in 2016-17. Lawson, Green, and Ellington all took over 3 3's/game in 2008-09. Felton, McCants, Scott all took over 3 3's/game in 2004-05, Jawad took 2.8 3's/game. And 2009, 2005 were during a time when the 3-point shot wasn't as prevalent.
Unless there are 4 first round picks on next year's roster that I'm unaware of... Yes, it will be necessary for us to shoot the ball well from 3 to do anything of significance.
Our losses last season we lost by an average of 5.4 Pts, as bad as we shot. In fact, the largest margin we lost by last season was 12 to Indiana which was the last game in a extremely hard road trip. We shot 43% over all and 31% from 3 placing us 250th in over all shooting % and 327th in 3pt shooting and yet we only lost by an average of 5.4 pts. Now you like stats, I find those interesting stats.
This post I reply to, you seem to say we need this great season of shooting to change our fate from last season? Looks to me like a slight uptick on over all shooting % and we win.
Caleb Love shot 37.8% over all and 29.9% from 3
Nance shot 42.2% over all and 32% from 3
Leaky Black shot 41.1% over all and 32.6% from 3
Tyler Nickel shot 37.5% over all and 22.2 from 3
Puff Johnson shot 38.7% over all and 28.3% from 3
Demarco Dunn shot 42.4% over all and 32.4% from 3
Styles shot 36.8% over all and 33.3% from 3
McKoy shot 46.2% over all and 33.3% from 3
Will Shaver didn't shoot
Broken down that is 40% over all shooting from this group and 30.5% from 3 and all those guys are now gone and have been replaced with guys that all shot a good bit better than those numbers by guys no longer on roster. Couple more treys a game or just 3 more made baskets a game and guess what, we were undefeated in the regular season? What that means is a slight uptick in over all or just trey shooting and we are there, not some miracle uptick to be sure.
And frankly, you can look at one single position for that uptick, the 2 guard spot, the spot that is now where RJ Davis will play and BTW RJ shot 43.8% over all and 36.2% from trey while playing most of the season with his fingers taped, per Andrew he shot close to 50% from trey when his fingers were not taped together. FYI, Caleb was the leading trey shot taker at 7.4 per game while hitting only 29.9% of them. You don't have to work for NASA to see where that slight uptick can come from or to realize that we now have guys MORE than able to beat those paltry numbers.
@DSouthr Simply picking the scoring margins from losses is not a good way to say “we’re only _____ much improvement to becoming a contender.” Us beating Notre Dame by 1 is an indicator that we werent any good last year in that game even though we won.
Last year UConn had a +14.4 average point differential which was second in the country. 2015-16 our scoring margin was +12.8 per game 7th in the country. 2008-09 our scoring margin was +17.1 ppg 1st in the country. 2004-05 our scoring margin was +17.8 1st in the country.
Last year, our scoring margin was +5.3 ppg 67th in the country. While playing in a weaker ACC.
I don’t have all the numbers in front of me but I would bet that Final Four teams had probably a double digit point differential? And most National Championship teams had a point differential in the teens.
I understand that winning a game by 1 or 31 counts the same in the W/L. But when you’re projecting a team’s likelihood of a deep run, how you win and how you lose is important.
I agree that close games can progress positively and negatively towards the mean. But I think your analysis of point differential is flawed. If you want to view that as a couple of more 3’s away from being really good then fine. I see it as a bigger improvement needed across numerous areas. Hopefully we got that with new players.
I also never said it would take a miracle. My point consistently has been you need a few players (preferably 3, minimum 2) who take a lot of 3’s and make a good percentage of them (probably 35% or better). There shouldn’t be anything controversial about that, lol. And I never said it is unattainable. I’m basically following UNC’s history post 2000 and a general assessment on how the game is played today.
Last year UConn had a +14.4 average point differential which was second in the country. 2015-16 our scoring margin was +12.8 per game 7th in the country. 2008-09 our scoring margin was +17.1 ppg 1st in the country. 2004-05 our scoring margin was +17.8 1st in the country.
Last year, our scoring margin was +5.3 ppg 67th in the country. While playing in a weaker ACC.
I don’t have all the numbers in front of me but I would bet that Final Four teams had probably a double digit point differential? And most National Championship teams had a point differential in the teens.
I understand that winning a game by 1 or 31 counts the same in the W/L. But when you’re projecting a team’s likelihood of a deep run, how you win and how you lose is important.
I agree that close games can progress positively and negatively towards the mean. But I think your analysis of point differential is flawed. If you want to view that as a couple of more 3’s away from being really good then fine. I see it as a bigger improvement needed across numerous areas. Hopefully we got that with new players.
I also never said it would take a miracle. My point consistently has been you need a few players (preferably 3, minimum 2) who take a lot of 3’s and make a good percentage of them (probably 35% or better). There shouldn’t be anything controversial about that, lol. And I never said it is unattainable. I’m basically following UNC’s history post 2000 and a general assessment on how the game is played today.
Oh, is that how it works, give the stat man stats he does not like and all the sudden they become not a good way to look at it? LOL I actually think average margin in our losses is very telling, it shows we were a couple baskets away from wins in most of our losses.
" how you win and how you lose is important" YOUR words but then you step on your own argument by saying "I agree that close games can progress positively and negatively towards the mean. But I think your analysis of point differential is flawed"?
I read what you are trying to say as "I am not saying we have a huge gap we need to cross to get there, we just need to cross that tiny grand canyon like differential"?... I showed you that we are a slight uptick in the form of a couple of made baskets from a very different record, even considering all that went wrong. "I see it as a bigger improvement needed across numerous areas" again, your words not mine. You really sound like a duke fan trying to hold down any suggestion that UNC was close last season and has closed that gap strongly for the up coming season, do you get your information from a dukie cheer sheet? Put 6 more points on the board for UNC in each game last season and tell me what our record looks like, tell me if it "progresses toward the mean" as you suggest, positive or negative! LOL
In the past I have noticed that some teams that lose a bunch of squeakers in a season are really good the next year. But that only applies when most of the team returns for the next year.
You can also quibble over what counts as a squeaker. Using a 4-point margin for the threshold, we only had 3 such games.
On both those grounds, I would not conclude that we are poised for a strong season: not enough squeakers, and not enough returning players.
I DO feel like we could be poised for a strong season for OTHER REASONS, though. Mostly because of the new guys and the good vibes. But last year's team can't tell us all that much. And this year's team still has to prove itself.
@DSouthr
Maybe my math is off:
13 total losses
Loss margins: 9, 5, 8, 8, 7, 6, 1, 7, 2, 8, 12, 2, 5
Total margin: 80
80/13 = 6.2
The actual margin of defeat is -6.2 ppg, not -5.4
I don't think it's going to alter your argument but our performance was slightly worse if my math is correct.
I read what you are trying to say as "I am not saying we have a huge gap we need to cross to get there, we just need to cross that tiny grand canyon like differential"?... I showed you that we are a slight uptick in the form of a couple of made baskets from a very different record, even considering all that went wrong. "I see it as a bigger improvement needed across numerous areas" again, your words not mine. You really sound like a duke fan trying to hold down any suggestion that UNC was close last season and has closed that gap strongly for the up coming season, do you get your information from a dukie cheer sheet? Put 6 more points on the board for UNC in each game last season and tell me what our record looks like, tell me if it "progresses toward the mean" as you suggest, positive or negative! LOL
I don't think I've ever minced words. I think we need to be significantly better than we were last year. I hope we upgraded the positions and skills we needed to upgrade to be significantly better. Nowhere did I say that UNC hasn't closed the gap at all either.
I also don't get the "put 6 more points on the board for UNC in every game." If you gave Notre Dame (11-21, 3-17) 6 points in every game last year, they'd have 9 more wins and one game they lost by 6. Notre Dame then goes 20-11-1 and 11-6-1 in conference play. Guess Notre Dame was kinda close to being on the bubble last year!
Sorry, I'll check to see if that's on the Dukie Cheer Sheet. lol.
Maybe my math is off:
13 total losses
Loss margins: 9, 5, 8, 8, 7, 6, 1, 7, 2, 8, 12, 2, 5
Total margin: 80
80/13 = 6.2
The actual margin of defeat is -6.2 ppg, not -5.4
I don't think it's going to alter your argument but our performance was slightly worse if my math is correct.
I read what you are trying to say as "I am not saying we have a huge gap we need to cross to get there, we just need to cross that tiny grand canyon like differential"?... I showed you that we are a slight uptick in the form of a couple of made baskets from a very different record, even considering all that went wrong. "I see it as a bigger improvement needed across numerous areas" again, your words not mine. You really sound like a duke fan trying to hold down any suggestion that UNC was close last season and has closed that gap strongly for the up coming season, do you get your information from a dukie cheer sheet? Put 6 more points on the board for UNC in each game last season and tell me what our record looks like, tell me if it "progresses toward the mean" as you suggest, positive or negative! LOL
I don't think I've ever minced words. I think we need to be significantly better than we were last year. I hope we upgraded the positions and skills we needed to upgrade to be significantly better. Nowhere did I say that UNC hasn't closed the gap at all either.
I also don't get the "put 6 more points on the board for UNC in every game." If you gave Notre Dame (11-21, 3-17) 6 points in every game last year, they'd have 9 more wins and one game they lost by 6. Notre Dame then goes 20-11-1 and 11-6-1 in conference play. Guess Notre Dame was kinda close to being on the bubble last year!
Sorry, I'll check to see if that's on the Dukie Cheer Sheet. lol.
You are one of the few on this board that has access to those cheer sheets!
"I don't think I've ever minced words. I think we need to be significantly better than we were last year"
And yet you do not define "significantly better" do you, oh but you do not mince words? LOL I show you where the efficacy has to improve, the positions, the players, and you want to argue? Why don't you share with us exactly what has to improve, is it players is it scheme and how does it improve.
Of course they have to play better but more importantly in my view the staff needs to perform much better. You want to talk about where this UNC team needs a major upgrade to last season, I am going to point to the coaching staff much more than the players from last season. I am because with all the short comings of the players from last season, what I see glaring is the way this team was handled, now darn right that needs a major upgrade. But given those failings we were still much closer than you seem to want to admit. We had 1 double digit loss, the season before we had at least 4 on a team we ended up in the natty game with. The most glaring inefficient players are no longer on the team and have been replaced by players that have been much more efficient in the college game. Now if the staff can get their act together we do have a chance to be very good and considering that we actually were closer last season than many who MINCE WORDS want to portray.
And, rather than mince words, let me be even more specific. There were points in most all our games last season and every one of you watched and saw this, it was down to around 3mins in the game, we either had the lead or we were down a basket or 2 and we just couldn't close it out. It was a bad shot here, a missed defensive assignment there, a they get 3 or 4 offensive rebounds and finally score to take us down. We were right there, it was like we kept fumbling at the 1 yard line and most of the time it was a self inflicted wound at the exact worst time, a bad shot here, a missed block out there, a free throw that clanged off. Then after the game we look at a box score to see 1 guy that missed those close game shots, that happened to be our leading shot taker that shot 29% for the season and the problem just jumps off the page. Oh, by the way, that one guy was one of only 2 jump shooters on our team that opponents worried about but as well a guy known for taking volume bad shots? I swear there were games we could have replaced our 2 guard with a chair and the team would have shot better over all.
Everybody involved in UNC bball needs to get better including the fans! There is enough blame to go around but there is absolutely nothing productive about harping on our past issues. We need to be better at shooting, passing, rebounding, hustling, defense, etc. The coaches need to use more bench and play multiple D and run. Fans need to try to somehow figure out the difference between critique and bashing. And the custodial staff needs to keep the parking lot of the DES cleaner! BUT how can you look at this off season and not be excited about the upcoming season? How can you watch our coach fill every conceivable hole with peeps who fit the current game and not feel optimistic? Guess what, Mr. Love is not on the team anymore, so who cares what % he shot! Last year's team wasn't as bad as SDung insists; and next year's probably won't be as good as I believe. That middle ground is some really high cotton though!
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