Looking at FLORIDA STATE

[What Would Jesus Do?]

FSU finished last season tied with Louisville for 2nd in the ACC.

Notre Dame nipped them in their 2nd game in the ACCT. Xavier spanked them badly in the 2nd round of the NAACT.

Unless there were other roster changes I don't know about, they lost 5 players but added 5 back with the 12th best recruiting class in the nation.

Key players lost were

Jonathan Isaac
Dwayne Bacon
Xavier Rathan-Mayes
Jarquez Smith
Michael Ojo

Unless there are some transfers or redshirts, that leaves them with this likely 12-man roster for 2017-18:

Year Rank Hgt  Wgt  Player
SR   147  6'8  218  Cofer*
SR?  JC   6'4  200  Savoy
SR?  JC   6'6  195  Angola-Rodas*
JR   101  6'6  204  Mann*
JR   306  7'4  233  Koumadje
SO   070  6'5  215  Forrest*
SO   130  6'1  195  CJ Walker*
FR   026  6'5  205  MJ Walker
FR   062  7'0  230  Obiagu
FR   157  6'8  240  Gray
FR   168  6'7  200  Wilkes
FR   180  6'6  210  Polite

* played double digit minutes.
JC = from junior college; 1 year at FSU with presumably a year of eligibility left.

While they lost their best talent and some good front line guys, the cupboard isn't bare. Plus 5 of their 7 returning players played double digit minutes, and Koumadje just missed at 9.9.

They only have 1 decent outside shooter (Savoy) but have several guys who should be better than they showed last season.

Presumably CJ Walker takes over at point. He's the only guy listed as a PG on the roster.

Forrest and Mann are both solid and could make up one of the best wing duos in the ACC now that they aren't playing in the shadows of Isaac and Bacon. Perhaps newcomer MJ Walker can help at PG, or maybe Forrest can play some minutes there. MJ is also likely to back up on the wing, although they have several other options.

Like us, FSU has lots of question marks up front. Koumadje may have looked breakable last year, but he actually moved pretty well for a beanpole. If he has put on muscle, he might be decent. Cofer was OK, but more backup than starter. Which is to say that unless a few of their bigs surprise or develop quickly, they may be playing a good bit of small ball.

Bottom line: If they have good surprises from their new and returning big men, they could be decent this year. Or if several guys improve a lot on 3-point shooting, they could be decent. But only if both of those happen are they likely to be any better than middle tier in the conference. If they aren't careful, 6 or 7 teams could move past them.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Once again long and athletic. I don't see knock down shooters and I say good riddance (in a good natured way) to XRM! They look like they should challenge for the ACC and do well in the tourney, but they often Fultz it up when it comes time to prove it! I wish Hamilton would share his 7 footer pipeline though!

 

[viking131]

Could be wrong, but I don't see Florida State being as good as they were last year.

 

[Acc1950]

Don't play well together as a team - lot of 1 on 1 play.

 

[Archer2]

IMO, they take a step back this year. XRM will be hard to replace.

And Hamilton's teams always underachieve in the NCAAT. He's won 61% of his ACC games and only 55% of all the games he's coached. In 23 years as a head coach, his teams have only made the NCAAT 7 times and have never made the G8. Not very impressive considering some of the talented teams he's had.

As acc1950 said, too much one on one play.

 

[JimmyinVA]

...Hamilton's teams always underachieve in the NCAAT. He's won 61% of his ACC games and only 55% of all the games he's coached. In 23 years as a head coach, his teams have only made the NCAAT 7 times and have never made the G8. Not very impressive considering some of the talented teams he's had.

last year they had an incredible collection of size, athleticism, and talent -- more than enough to make the final four. as acc1950 pointed out, they just didn't play well together as a team. and that's on the coach. at this point based on talent vs. results i'd have to say fsu is one of the most underachieving programs in the country along with dook.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

...i'd have to say fsu is one of the most underachieving programs in the country along with dook.

Yep. Before last season started I actually projected them lower for that reason.

For years I had been over-ranking them on talent only to see the coaching fail to realize their potential. So I decided this year I wouldn't be fooled again. "Fool me once" and all that.

So of course this was the year they actually did well in the ACC (not so much in the NCAAT).

At the other end of the scale, Mike Brey's Notre Dame teams always seem to overachieve. They look like they should be bottom half, maybe bottom third of the conference next year on talent, but you pretty much have to rank them higher.

 

[Archer2]

Agree about Brey's teams. He's a good coach.

 

[DSouthr]

IMO, they take a step back this year. XRM will be hard to replace.

And Hamilton's teams always underachieve in the NCAAT. He's won 61% of his ACC games and only 55% of all the games he's coached. In 23 years as a head coach, his teams have only made the NCAAT 7 times and have never made the G8. Not very impressive considering some of the talented teams he's had.

As acc1950 said, too much one on one play.

I agree arch, they take a step back, again solid talent but Hamilton just does not have his guys play together and it defies the talent level he tends to get. IMO, most under achieving coach in the ACC.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Another coach who looks like an underperformer in the recruiting thread is Jim Boeheim. Surprised me. He's had a rough time in the ACC.

 

[FlaTarHeel]

Agree about Brey's teams. He's a good coach.

And he just got a huge transfer.

 

[Archer2]

Juwan Durham is a great pickup.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Juwan Durham is a great pickup.

Interesting transfer. #51 in the 2016 class. Not pursued out of HS by ND.

Only averaged 8.8 mpg as a frosh but would probably have stepped into a starting role for UConn this season. Or maybe not, and maybe that's why he decided to leave.

A year to bulk up and learn Brey's system. He could be a big deal for them in 2018-19.